Fire Rizzo

[Slateman]

No idea, but Im not sure how univeral it is across the organization. James Wood, for instance, didnt get the memo as he's very selective (almost too selective).

But at the MLB level, I agree. All of baseball is moving towards being selective and hitting it hard. Nats are moving in the opposite direction

[imref]

I saw a tweet this morning that I can no longer find that showed the % of players drafted from 2013-2022 who have made the majors, by club. The Nats were in the lower third at 13%, median was 14%.

Here's the list:
2013: Pivetta(4), Voth(5), Garrett Hampson(26), Caleb Hamilton(38), Shaun Anderson(40)
2014: Fedde(1), Andrew Suarez (2), Reetz (3), Austen Williams(6), James Borque (14), Tommy Doyle (35), Stuart Fairchild (38)
2015: Stevenson (2), Blake Perkins (3), Taylor Hearn (5), Koda Glover (8 ), Taylor Guilbeau (10), Max "future MVP" Schrock(13), Coco Montes (35)
2016: Kieboom (1), Dunning (1), Neuse (2), Luzardo (3), Daniel Johnson (5), Tres Barrera (6), Noll (7), Braymer (18), Sterling Sharp (22), Mat Mervis (39)
2017: Seth Romero (1), Wil Crowe (2), Tetreault (7), Bryce Montes de Oca (15), Jake Cousins (20), Bennett Sousa (34), Klobosits(36)
2018: Irvin (4), Cody Wilson (13), Aaron Fletcher (14), Evan Lee (15), Andrew Nardi (39)
2019: Willingham (17), Alu (24)
2020: Cavalli (1)
2021: None
2022: None

Some of the very low picks didn't sign and got re-drafted later by other teams. Nardi, for example, was drafted by the Yankees in 2017, the Nats in 2018, and the Marlins in 2019. He's currently pitching well with Miami.

[nobleisthyname]

Out of that list it looks like Luzardo and Dunning and then a whole lot of nothing.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Klobosits I think was the original "Let's Go, New Guy" guy.

[lylelgreen]

I think this was the tweet:

https://twitter.com/jaycuda/status/1679265254524452866?s=61&t=EvKIbEGkNtLCzXEokFGLew

I saw a tweet this morning that I can no longer find that showed the % of players drafted from 2013-2022 who have made the majors, by club. The Nats were in the lower third at 13%, median was 14%.

Here's the list:
2013: Pivetta(4), Voth(5), Garrett Hampson(26), Caleb Hamilton(38), Shaun Anderson(40)
2014: Fedde(1), Andrew Suarez (2), Reetz (3), Austen Williams(6), James Borque (14), Tommy Doyle (35), Stuart Fairchild (38)
2015: Stevenson (2), Blake Perkins (3), Taylor Hearn (5), Koda Glover (8 ), Taylor Guilbeau (10), Max "future MVP" Schrock(13), Coco Montes (35)
2016: Kieboom (1), Dunning (1), Neuse (2), Luzardo (3), Daniel Johnson (5), Tres Barrera (6), Noll (7), Braymer (18), Sterling Sharp (22), Mat Mervis (39)
2017: Seth Romero (1), Wil Crowe (2), Tetreault (7), Bryce Montes de Oca (15), Jake Cousins (20), Bennett Sousa (34), Klobosits(36)
2018: Irvin (4), Cody Wilson (13), Aaron Fletcher (14), Evan Lee (15), Andrew Nardi (39)
2019: Willingham (17), Alu (24)
2020: Cavalli (1)
2021: None
2022: None

Some of the very low picks didn't sign and got re-drafted later by other teams. Nardi, for example, was drafted by the Yankees in 2017, the Nats in 2018, and the Marlins in 2019. He's currently pitching well with Miami.

[Natsinpwc]

This seems a flawed metric given someone like Seth Romero counts as much as a future HOF player. They should measure service time for the players who made MLB. 

[welch]

This seems a flawed metric given someone like Seth Romero counts as much as a future HOF player. They should measure service time for the players who made MLB. 

Maybe the metric should be the number of seasons a team made the playoffs, with having won a World Series counting extra? Or successful trades, such as Steven Sousa for Trea Turner and Joes Ross? Or Jon Lester for Night Train Lane Thomas?

[imref]

https://www.reddit.com/r/Nationals/comments/15babn2/mlb_comparative_draft_pick_analysis_for_the/

Within the table we can see that even if we include the prospects traded away by our front office during the years of contention, we still finish last in WAR produced. We were hampered by our draft position from 2012-2020, but there are a number of teams with Average/Median picks in the 20s that sit in the middle to upper portion of the cumulative WAR drafted list.

I am presenting this data to try and illustrate that under the modern draft construct our Front Office has produced the lowest Wins Above Replacement, regardless of whether our picks played for us or not, while other teams with comparable draft picks have been able to succeed. Open to suggestions on other datapoints to consider, but based on the data it appears that our Front Office's approach should be questioned.

[skippy1999]

https://www.reddit.com/r/Nationals/comments/15babn2/mlb_comparative_draft_pick_analysis_for_the/

This is very fair.

[welch]

I read the reddit pseudo-analytics. A baseball team plays to win each game. The reddit thinker argues that the point is to draft players who will turn in a high WAR. I suggest that the guy consider wins on the field as an extra data point.

[Slateman]

I read the reddit pseudo-analytics. A baseball team plays to win each game. The reddit thinker argues that the point is to draft players who will turn in a high WAR. I suggest that the guy consider wins on the field as an extra data point.

Generally speaking, players who turn in a high WAR contribute to winning. Having multiple players who turn in high WAR results in the team winning

[imref]

Just reinforces that rizzo is a great trader but hasn’t drafted or developed well

[Natsinpwc]

Just reinforces that rizzo is a great trader but hasn’t drafted or developed well

You’re forgetting the third leg.  Latin American signers. This analysis ignores someone like Soto.  And Robles. And Garcia. 

[Count Walewski]

If you take away international signings and the team's cozy relationship with Boras during a previous set of draft rules under which Boras clients were seen as questionably signable by many other teams, suddenly Rizzo looks a lot worse.

[welch]

If you take away international signings and the team's cozy relationship with Boras during a previous set of draft rules under which Boras clients were seen as questionably signable by many other teams, suddenly Rizzo looks a lot worse.

I just counted the number of winning teams Washington baseball fans enjoyed between 1952 and 2012. Including '52 and 2012, and there were three: the Expansion Senators had a winning season in 1969. The New Nationals won the World Series in 2019.

Are we looking at baseball as a game decided on style points?

[HalfSmokes]

I just counted the number of winning teams Washington baseball fans enjoyed between 1952 and 2012. Including '52 and 2012, and there were three: the Expansion Senators had a winning season in 1969. The New Nationals won the World Series in 2019.

Are we looking at baseball as a game decided on style points?

So with the bar incredibly low, rizzo looks ok?

[SkinsNatFan21RIP]

If you take away international signings and the team's cozy relationship with Boras during a previous set of draft rules under which Boras clients were seen as questionably signable by many other teams, suddenly Rizzo looks a lot worse.

This is kind of a silly way to look at things. If you take away all of his best finds then he sucks…well yeah lol

[Mattionals]

I just counted the number of winning teams Washington baseball fans enjoyed between 1952 and 2012. Including '52 and 2012, and there were three: the Expansion Senators had a winning season in 1969. The New Nationals won the World Series in 2019.

Are we looking at baseball as a game decided on style points?

I'm with Welch on this one. The big league team put out some pretty quality players, some of which were drafted and developed, some were FA signings, and many were trades. The Nats were a must watch team from 2012-2019, and they won it all. The farm was barren by 2020 because of that run and sure, you can complain about the lack of talent and development, but thanks to trades and drafts, the Nats have a top 10 system again.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

all the comment on reddit that started this said was that we drafted poorly relative to all other MLB teams from 2012-20. You can't dispute that. All you can say is we compensated that with some good trades, maybe the best high dollar FA signing ever (Max), and some productive to outstanding international signings. Really can't dispute that, either.

[Slateman]

all the comment on reddit that started this said was that we drafted poorly relative to all other MLB teams from 2012-20. You can't dispute that. All you can say is we compensated that with some good trades, maybe the best high dollar FA signing ever (Max), and some productive to outstanding international signings. Really can't dispute that, either.

Agree. I would like to see the same type of calculation for players acquired by trade and free agency

[welch]

The Nats needed good players to win so often between 2012 and 2019. How Rizzo got them is a matter of method. It would not have worked, I say, had Rizzo spent heavy for free agents. I remember only a few free agents, and many of them, important players, were "nobody wants them" guys at 30 or older who happened to fill out the regular team.

In addition, we know that Rizzo traded prospects for better players. Such as Steven Sousa, Jr for Trea Turner and Joe Ross. Or grouping three young pitchers for Adam Eaton.

Looking only at the draft, there is not much explanation for why the Nats kept winning, especially since the Nats have not turned somersaults to sign free agents. It looks like Rizzo's strategy has been to avoid expensive free agents, except for Max, and then Corbin. while often trading draftees. And all while looking hard at the DR, for instance.

We remember, of course, that the Nats usually drafted at the bottom, so Rizzo took chances on injured kids, like Giolito, and troubled kids, like Seth Romero. Meanwhile a team like Baltimore cynically tanked year after year. The organization can be criticized, yes, because some first rounders flopped. Guys like Brian Goodwin, Fedde and Kieboom, for instance.

[HalfSmokes]

The Nats needed good players to win so often between 2012 and 2019. How Rizzo got them is a matter of method. It would not have worked, I say, had Rizzo spent heavy for free agents. I remember only a few free agents, and many of them, important players, were "nobody wants them" guys at 30 or older who happened to fill out the regular team.

In addition, we know that Rizzo traded prospects for better players. Such as Steven Sousa, Jr for Trea Turner and Joe Ross. Or grouping three young pitchers for Adam Eaton.

Looking only at the draft, there is not much explanation for why the Nats kept winning, especially since the Nats have not turned somersaults to sign free agents. It looks like Rizzo's strategy has been to avoid expensive free agents, except for Max, and then Corbin. while often trading draftees. And all while looking hard at the DR, for instance.

We remember, of course, that the Nats usually drafted at the bottom, so Rizzo took chances on injured kids, like Giolito, and troubled kids, like Seth Romero. Meanwhile a team like Baltimore cynically tanked year after year. The organization can be criticized, yes, because some first rounders flopped. Guys like Brian Goodwin, Fedde and Kieboom, for instance.

Giolito went 16th. The team sucks and continues to suck. Rizzo’s overall record is getting more mediocre by the day. You shouldn’t have to be the worst team in the league to improve

[imref]

We need to trade more with STL:

The St. Louis Cardinals have traded away: Sandy Alcantara, Zac Gallen, Adolis Garcia, Randy Arozarena, Lane Thomas, Patrick Wisdom and the No. 37 pick

And received: Marcell Ozuna, Matthew Liberatore, a rental Jon Lester at 37 years old, a Comp B pick, Drew Robinson, and cash

[SkinsNatFan21RIP]

Giolito went 16th. The team sucks and continues to suck. Rizzo’s overall record is getting more mediocre by the day. You shouldn’t have to be the worst team in the league to improve

I don't understand what some fans want? We were good for 10 years and won a world series. Many of you clamored for him to throw caution to the wind and trade prospects for talent because the window was closing. So in the end, we dealt away guys like Luzardo, Dunning and Giolito to go after it which resulted in a championship. I do agree his drafting has left a lot to be desired but he's been really good in most other aspects and the farm system has jumped all the way to the top 5 and this draft looks like a winner. I think firing Rizzo would be a huge mistake. I think this team is competing for the pennant again in two years.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Many thought the Eaton deal was a steep price at the time, so when Eaton proved to be mostly hurt and clearly on the downside, folks won't count it as a win but for flags fly forever.  The other really steep price probably was Treinen and Luzardo for Madsen and Doolittle, but it's hard to kick too much about that one. It took a long time for Luzardo to figure it out, and while Treinen had a few very good years, we got some nice work out of Doo and Madsen.