Fire Rizzo

[Senatorswin]

This is all wildly optimisti

Alu is Lombardozi
Garcia has to hit 30 homers or win a batting title to justify his miserable defense.
Ruiz is a slap hitter who will only play about 120 games
Thomas is a light hitting corner OFer
Abrams is Dee Gordon without the PEDs

That gets you, maybe, 68 wins.

Wood has an enormous hole in his swing and was exposed as soon as he went somewhere you could spin a breaking ball

Green's hole is so enormous, he's probably Joey Gallo

House? Who is that? The 18 year old with a debilitating back injury? He's never going to play a full season for the Nats

Where in the world do you get that about Wood? In 2021 he hit .372 with an OBP of .465 in 101 plate appearances. In 2022 he hit .313 with an OBP of .420.

[Elvir Ovcina]

Where in the world do you get that about Wood? In 2021 he hit .372 with an OBP of .465 in 101 plate appearances. In 2022 he hit .313 with an OBP of .420.

I think he's referring to the fact that Wood's numbers in Fredericksburg were much weaker than they'd been in Lake Elsinore.  I'm not sure that holds much water - Lake Elsinore is a pitchers' park in what's otherwise a hitter-friendly league - but it's at least an argument.

My biggest bone to pick is that this is low-A.  Baseball Prospectus thinks he's the #3 prospect in all of baseball.  That's insane.  Ranking him ahead of guys who are only a year older, play SS with plus power and speed tools, and have already mashed AA (with better stats than Wood had in low-A) is a reflection of one thing: Aaron Judge hit 62 home runs. 

If Judge had hit 32, or had hit 62 for a team not located in New York or Boston, Wood would barely be a top-40 prospect.  Wood is 6'7" and kinda looks like Aaron Judge, but 6'7" corner OFs who are already 240 pounds at age 20 are much more likely to become Adam Dunn than Aaron Judge.  Now that's still a very good player, but it's not the #3 prospect in all of baseball, and certainly not when the guy's never played above low-A.

[Slateman]

Where in the world do you get that about Wood? In 2021 he hit .372 with an OBP of .465 in 101 plate appearances. In 2022 he hit .313 with an OBP of .420.

10% increase in K rate once he came to Fredericksburg. Mirrors what he did in the complex league. Only time it dipped was when he want to league that is difficult on pitchers' breaking balls.

[imref]

Wood had just 82 ABs in Fredricksburg. Seems a bit low to reach any conclusions. And overall he posted .293   .366   .463, which if he equals that in the first couple of months of 2023 will get him to Wilmington.

K rate in his 193 ABs in the SD system was 22%, in Fredrickburg it was 32%. In the rookie league in 2021 it was 37%.

[Senatorswin]

James Wood is 20 years old and hitting for average and getting on base at a high level. Overall in class A he hit over .300 and is getting on base on a pace with Bryce Harper. I think it's probably too early to say he'll be a success or failure but so far he sure looks good.

[Senatorswin]

10% increase in K rate once he came to Fredericksburg. Mirrors what he did in the complex league. Only time it dipped was when he want to league that is difficult on pitchers' breaking balls.

I agree class A ball is low to rank a guy so high. I would say MLB should probably only have guys in AA and above in their top 100 rankings. May have a separate ranking for A and below. Maybe just have a separate ranking for each level in the minors.

[Natsinpwc]

I got a hard-on for Wood.

[Elvir Ovcina]

Wood had just 82 ABs in Fredricksburg. Seems a bit low to reach any conclusions. And overall he posted .293   .366   .463, which if he equals that in the first couple of months of 2023 will get him to Wilmington.

K rate in his 193 ABs in the SD system was 22%, in Fredrickburg it was 32%. In the rookie league in 2021 it was 37%.

He needs to be at Wilmington to start the season.  Even his stats in the Nats' organization would easily justify the bump to A+.  His goals for this year should be to be mashing AA by the end of the season with reduced strikeouts while maintaining power without adding significant bulk.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

So, if Wood's not a legit top 10 prospect due to distance to the majors and a K rate that has jumped from acceptable (low 20s) to questionable / unacceptable (30s), then should he be #30, #80, or not on the board?  It really does seem there's a lot of group think around him to rate him high.  Is there anyone who does this for a living that is raising red flags? KLaw, who hates everybody?  [edit update - KLaw has him #16.] When you have BA, BP, FG, [KLaw] and MLB all high on him, seems like that's a lot of the Judge effect on guys who should be smarter than that. Kiley at FG may be the biggest skeptic of that list, which I know makes Elvir nervous.  Still rates him currently as only a 35 hit tool, 20 game power, and 35 field, so I think he's seeing the same things Elvir and Slate are seeing. It's just his future value is off the charts which leads to the 60 grade overall (55, 60, 55, with speed dropping from 60 current to 50 future). 

A chunk of my sunnier view is I'm taking middle projections to above middle from folks who know this stuff, except perhaps Alu (who is not the type scouts like, which is why he was a low round senior class draftee).  I mean, Ruiz is above average right now when you factor in the arm as well as his contact and eye.  Abrams is a bit rushed but is there a mass drop off on his projections?  Hassell is a conservative projection as a starter. One or two other hits from among Smith, Garcia / Alu, Meneses, with Thomas or Call as a guy who should be a 4th OF, and you have a lineup you can fill in around. Is it that much of a stretch to say another year or two of purgatory and then we have a 2011-level club, Wood, Green, and House or an international signee on the way?

[Natsinpwc]

Did anyone ask the Nats brass if House had been found?

[imref]

Did anyone ask the Nats brass if House had been found?

Keith Law apparently found him.

[Elvir Ovcina]

So, if Wood's not a legit top 10 prospect due to distance to the majors and a K rate that has jumped from acceptable (low 20s) to questionable / unacceptable (30s), then should he be #30, #80, or not on the board?  It really does seem there's a lot of group think around him to rate him high.  Is there anyone who does this for a living that is raising red flags? KLaw, who hates everybody?  [edit update - KLaw has him #16.] When you have BA, BP, FG, [KLaw] and MLB all high on him, seems like that's a lot of the Judge effect on guys who should be smarter than that. Kiley at FG may be the biggest skeptic of that list, which I know makes Elvir nervous.  Still rates him currently as only a 35 hit tool, 20 game power, and 35 field, so I think he's seeing the same things Elvir and Slate are seeing. It's just his future value is off the charts which leads to the 60 grade overall (55, 60, 55, with speed dropping from 60 current to 50 future). 

A chunk of my sunnier view is I'm taking middle projections to above middle from folks who know this stuff, except perhaps Alu (who is not the type scouts like, which is why he was a low round senior class draftee).  I mean, Ruiz is above average right now when you factor in the arm as well as his contact and eye.  Abrams is a bit rushed but is there a mass drop off on his projections?  Hassell is a conservative projection as a starter. One or two other hits from among Smith, Garcia / Alu, Meneses, with Thomas or Call as a guy who should be a 4th OF, and you have a lineup you can fill in around. Is it that much of a stretch to say another year or two of purgatory and then we have a 2011-level club, Wood, Green, and House or an international signee on the way?

Judge effect and scouting groupthink.  I think he should be more like 35-40 in the rankings, but I think rankings are silly anyway.  Players are too different to "rank" them in anything other than a dehumanizing would-I-trade-that-fleshbag-for-that-other-fleshbag manner. 

I get the projectability, but there are people ranking him in the same band or even above guys like Elly De La Cruz who have all the same tools (and in De La Cruz's case, more) and have actually shown them in the upper minors. 

Almost nobody should be sitting on a 60 FV who has zero at-bats above low-A.  That's just a bad application of the scouting scale.  Putting a 60 FV outcome on him implies that the most likely outcome for him is that he's an MLB All-Star for a number of years.  That's simply not an accurate statement of probability when you're projecting a guy whose 60-FV case depends on him, a 20-year-old who's already 240 pounds but hit 12 homers in nearly 350 PAs last year, developing 60-grade game power while maintaining the ability to play plus defense in RF and also cutting down strikeouts.  They're basically saying he's going to magically turn into Bryce Harper, except that Harper always showed that game power and did it out of a frame that didn't rely on being absolutely massive to get to it.

Yes, that outcome is possible.  But it's much more likely that either that power never comes, or as it does he turns into a 1B/DH.  That is, either Jason Heyward or Adam Dunn.  Both of those guys were big-time prospects and good major league players.  Neither would be a 60. 

This is not a slight on Wood in any way.  It's just a simple fact that only true physical and skill-level freaks are actually able to get to a 55/60/55 profile in the OF.

And while I hate to keep using Elly De La Cruz as a comp, I'll do it just because I've seen him a dozen times in person.  Right now he is probably a 40/60/60 profile if you put him in the outfield in the majors, with 70 grade speed (not making this up; he's the fastest guy I saw all year - think standup triple to left kind of speed) and is a switch-hitting shortstop who OPSed .910 in AA at age 20 while hitting 28 homers and stealing 47 bases in 120 games across A+/AA despite being about 6'7".  THAT is what a reasonable 60 FV grade looks like. 

[JCA-CrystalCity]

TBH, would I be shocked if he ended up as a 1st baseman, like Dunn?  no. Just that kind of a result is still good, as you say.  That's not a line up hole. 

[Elvir Ovcina]

TBH, would I be shocked if he ended up as a 1st baseman, like Dunn?  no. Just that kind of a result is still good, as you say.  That's not a line up hole.

Yeah.  It's likely that he is going to be a decent to good MLB player in some manner.  I just get grumpy when people coalesce around the moonshot outcome as the most likely one. 

Of course, I get grumpy a lot, so this is not news.

[Senatorswin]

It's still early to anoint Wood as the next coming but the stats so far are super impressive. What guy in his 19 and 20 years of age has an OBP of .465 and .420. Also. as a 20 year-old in 291 AB's has 27 doubles. Just as I wouldn't anoint him I wouldn't put a ceiling on him either.

[nobleisthyname]

It's still early to anoint Wood as the next coming but the stats so far are super impressive. What guy in his 19 and 20 years of age has an OBP of .465 and .420. Also. as a 20 year-old in 291 AB's has 27 doubles. Just as I wouldn't anoint him I wouldn't put a ceiling on him either.

The Nats had another player recently putting up >.400 OBP numbers at those ages, except he was doing it at the MLB level rather than low-A.

[Senatorswin]

The Nats had another player recently putting up >.400 OBP numbers at those ages, except he was doing it at the MLB level rather than low-A.

Yep, I guess that's why they got a king's ransom for him .... hopefully.

[PowerBoater69]

The Nats have a 1085-1084 regular season record under Rizzo. He's about to be a losing GM.

[Mattionals]

The Nats have a 1085-1084 regular season record under Rizzo. He's about to be a losing GM.

There are three GM/PoBO with longer tenure than Rizzo.


Brian Cashman 98-23 Yankees - 2325-1627, 58.8% winning percentage
Kenny Williams 01-23 White Sox - 1716-1751, 49.4% winning percentage
John Mozeliak 08-23 Cardinals - 1291-1042, 55.3% winning percentage


So, I'd say those are pretty good odds overall.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

seems the two keys for GM longevity are winning a championship early and stable ownership (although I'm not sure about CWS).

[Count Walewski]

seems the two keys for GM longevity are winning a championship early and stable ownership (although I'm not sure about CWS).

The White Sox owner, Jerry Reinsdorf, is loyal to a fault and never fires anyone. The worst he'll do to you is kick you upstairs to a more senior role, which is what happened to Kenny Williams when he was promoted from GM to President of Baseball Operations.

Look in the executive suite at Guaranteed Rate Field, and it's a lot of former players in those roles. PoBO Kenny Williams was a mediocre outfielder for the team in the 80's, the head of the minor league system was a backup middle infielder in the mid 2000's, etc.

Stability of ownership and management is why the White Sox are a .500 team right now.

[welch]

If there's an existing thread, someone point me to it.  Otherwise have at.

(Image removed from quote.)

Amusing to return to the first post, in 2010.

[IanRubbish]

I'm more pissed at the Lerners

This post from 12+ years has held up well.  Rizzo’s job has been to be a PR front for a salary dump. 

[PowerBoater69]

Ring of Honor for a GM with a losing record? Probably in DC, probably not in most cities.

[welch]

Contract the whole freaking team or send them somewhere else.  Perennial losers is all they'll be at this rate.  Not even losers, bottom heap team forevermore!

I think this is premature.

I think he is working with a joke of a budget, which is likely why Kasten left.

I guess the plan is now for the lerners to feed rizzo to the wolves in a year or two.

Adds Morse, Ramos, Burnett, Strasburg, Harper, Storen, and extends Zimmerman.  Unearths others for a good bullpen out of nowhere.  Lucks out on Livan pitching out of his mind.

Loses Hanrahan, Capps and Dunn.

Has 3 months until spring training.

Prior to Dunn being cautiously neutral was stupid.  Right now it's warranted contingent upon the remaining 3 months.

He drafted harper and Strasburg? The genius, talk about picking players out of nowhere

Yep, it ranks right up there with drafting Tom Brady in the 6th round!

I think he is working with a joke of a budget, which is likely why Kasten left.

I guess the plan is now for the lerners to feed rizzo to the wolves in a year or two.

yep, rinse and repeat every 4-5 years

Yeah, I'm pissed at the Lerners too.

About Potomac listing the players: Strasburg and Harper were obvious. Signing Zimmerman to an extension was obvious. Storen was pretty much an obvious. The rest were good hunting.

I'm hating on the Lerners.

Etc