Author Topic: Fire Rizzo  (Read 359558 times)

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Offline UMDNats

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Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #4650: August 23, 2023, 11:48:47 AM »
Rebuild isn't quite over yet. There are a few core guys up with the big club right now, but we are still all waiting on the rest of the core to come up. Abrams, Ruiz, Gore, and Gray are absolutely a core. We've got some other guys who could fit well around them, like Thomas, Riley Adams, Harvey, Thompson, and Finnegan. Then there are guys you are currently getting production out of who may or may not be a part of the next competitive team. Meneses and Garrett come to mind here. You still need to get Crews, Wood, and House up, and see what Cavalli is like after coming back from TJ. There are certainly other interesting prospect names as well, Lipscomb and Morales specifically, and Hassall, Young, and others to a lesser extent. Next year the bare minimum should be a .500 team with competing for a WC being the true goal.

Team sucks > trade players > acquire young talent > add veteran talent to supplement as now you should compete

                                                                                 ^
                                                                                we are here

Cubs and Marlins are freaking around with a playoff spot with barely even trying. Looking at next year as a "well, let's just not spend yet because the rebuild isn't over" is wasting everyone's time. There's no reason to suck for 5+ years when you have 2 top 10 prospects in baseball already in AA and a roster with a bunch of regulars who are under team control now.

If this year's team wasn't 14-34 and instead was like 19-29 to start the year we'd be in a playoff spot. Add a good SP, add a good bat for 1B, get Crews up here and you're a playoff team, or at least trying to be one. You don't even need to plan on Wood or House or Cavalli.

 Another year of dumpster diving for guys to hit to an 88 OPS+ would be such a dagger.

Offline IanRubbish

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Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #4651: August 23, 2023, 12:13:06 PM »
I actually think there's little reason to sign anyone.  There's a logjam of internal talent already here in OF, 3B, and C, an established SS, and 1B and DH can be filled by some of the young player/prospect jam.  The only uncertain position is 2B, but Darren Baker, Luis Garcia, or someone already here can be given a shot there.  The problem with signing someone is you end up taking playing time away from a developing player so Rizzo has a 31 yo he can flip at the deadline.  Or you get a fill in like Ildemaro Vargas who'd basically take ABs away from a prospect. The only place signing someone might make sense is the bullpen, which has to stay strong for any playoff run, and doesn't require the same level of spend as starters.

Also, while not huge sums, the team has cash commitments of $70m+ next year to Stras, Corbin, Max, Trevor Williams, and Keibert, and $55m to Stras, Corbin, Keibert, and Max in 2025.  Then you need to get ready for Crews arbitration in 2026, and Gore and Gray in 2025.

Online Natsinpwc

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Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #4652: August 23, 2023, 12:17:26 PM »
They are not a real contender in 2024 even if they compete for a wild card. Would be better off signing a bat and a pitcher to a one or two year deal. And then if it does not work you trade them at the deadline and tank again. And then get ready to contend in 2025.

Offline nfotiu

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Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #4653: August 23, 2023, 12:24:10 PM »
They are not a real contender in 2024 even if they compete for a wild card. Would be better off signing a bat and a pitcher to a one or two year deal. And then if it does not work you trade them at the deadline and tank again. And then get ready to contend in 2025.
I'm not a believer you can just flip a switch and go from losing team to contender.   The team has to learn to win and contend, and that is an iterative process year over year.   The young talent is going to develop as well on a tanking team, as a team playing like the Nats are right now.  Spending some money to fill out pitcher depth and if it makes sense, add a position player or two that will be around for a few years.  No need to go after any mega contract type guys though.

Offline Senatorswin

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Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #4654: August 23, 2023, 12:31:46 PM »
Also, while not huge sums, the team has cash commitments of $70m+ next year to Stras, Corbin, Max, Trevor Williams, and Keibert, and $55m to Stras, Corbin, Keibert, and Max in 2025.  Then you need to get ready for Crews arbitration in 2026, and Gore and Gray in 2025.

I thought the Nats were free and clear of Corbin's contract after 2024. Does he have deferred money for 2025?

I would sign a top pitcher for next year. They're not going to have the health in the starting pitching they've had so far this year.

Offline imref

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Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #4655: August 23, 2023, 12:32:44 PM »
Team sucks > trade players > acquire young talent > add veteran talent to supplement as now you should compete

                                                                                 ^
                                                                                we are here

Cubs and Marlins are freaking around with a playoff spot with barely even trying. Looking at next year as a "well, let's just not spend yet because the rebuild isn't over" is wasting everyone's time. There's no reason to suck for 5+ years when you have 2 top 10 prospects in baseball already in AA and a roster with a bunch of regulars who are under team control now.

If this year's team wasn't 14-34 and instead was like 19-29 to start the year we'd be in a playoff spot. Add a good SP, add a good bat for 1B, get Crews up here and you're a playoff team, or at least trying to be one. You don't even need to plan on Wood or House or Cavalli.

 Another year of dumpster diving for guys to hit to an 88 OPS+ would be such a dagger.
:clap:

Offline UMDNats

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Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #4656: August 23, 2023, 12:32:57 PM »
They are not a real contender in 2024 even if they compete for a wild card. Would be better off signing a bat and a pitcher to a one or two year deal. And then if it does not work you trade them at the deadline and tank again. And then get ready to contend in 2025.

We won the world series with an old AF roster that squeezed into a wildcard spot. The window is already open to make the playoffs. Running out a lineup of Abrams-Thomas-Meneses-Ruiz-Garcia-Garrett-whatever in 2024 is just telling fans you DGAF, which may actually be the case, but is bad for business.

Taking guys on pillow contracts is fine and dandy but we're in the "acquire Gio Gonzalez and Jayson Werth" stage, not the "uhh maybe we get a 1-year rental dude who we can flip for a team's #25 prospect" stage. All these second-tier prospects people are penciling into future lineups are more likely to be dealt than anything, and that's what we should be doing. I would try to sell Elijah Green this winter for a real SP if we can swing it. Maybe the crappy new White Sox brass will fall for it.

Online Slateman

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Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #4657: August 23, 2023, 12:42:13 PM »
THe second half of this season is our 2011. Rizzo makes a move or two in the offseason, we are absolutely back in the playoff hunt.

And even if we're not a contender, acting like a team in pursuit of a playoff spot is enormously beneficial to our player development.

Offline imref

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Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #4658: August 23, 2023, 12:43:06 PM »
THe second half of this season is our 2011. Rizzo makes a move or two in the offseason, we are absolutely back in the playoff hunt.

And even if we're not a contender, acting like a team in pursuit of a playoff spot is enormously beneficial to our player development.
:clap:

And our ability to sign free agents.

Offline imref

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Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #4659: August 23, 2023, 01:17:25 PM »
just a reminder, we're only 7 back of the WC right now. another 5-2 run and it's conceivable that we're heading into september 5 games back.

Online Natsinpwc

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Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #4660: August 23, 2023, 01:23:47 PM »
just a reminder, we're only 7 back of the WC right now. another 5-2 run and it's conceivable that we're heading into september 5 games back.
Fangraphs has them still at zero chance. Too many teams to go through. 

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

Online Natsinpwc

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Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #4661: August 23, 2023, 01:25:37 PM »
:clap:

And our ability to sign free agents.
Sure but you will have to overpay to get them to come to DC as they did with Werth. Both in terms of years and dollars. It worked with Werth but not sure they could pull that off again. Don’t get into bidding wars this winter with the big money teams.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #4662: August 23, 2023, 01:26:56 PM »
We're about a 70-75 win team this year that has been a top-10 team for about two months now. Upgrade the offense at 1B and add a front-line starter, plus Crews replacing Call, and this team should at least compete for a WC slot next year.
yabut a few guys are overperforming that you can expect a pull back. Meneses will not have the RISP success rate (current rate is not predictive of future; much better off predicting his projected average as being his average with RISP than using RISP). Thomas has a bunch of weird stats that could mean a pull back too. We may even be seeing it a bit lately. Abrams has little track record but has the skills.

Online blue911

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Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #4663: August 23, 2023, 01:40:53 PM »
Fangraphs has them still at zero chance. Too many teams to go through. 

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

Too many out-of-division teams.

Offline imref

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Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #4664: August 23, 2023, 01:41:26 PM »
Believe!


Offline imref

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  • Re-contending in 202...5?
Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #4666: August 23, 2023, 02:52:06 PM »
Ok. This has them at 0.2 %.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2023-playoff-odds.shtml

<0.1% chance of winning the world series on May 23, 2019 :)


Offline imref

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Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #4668: August 23, 2023, 04:39:25 PM »

Offline imref

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Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #4669: August 23, 2023, 04:42:06 PM »
Nightengale says the White Sox are expected to promote Chris Getz to GM and hire Dayton Moore from the Rangers.

Offline Senatorswin

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Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #4670: August 23, 2023, 04:53:19 PM »
Nightengale says the White Sox are expected to promote Chris Getz to GM and hire Dayton Moore from the Rangers.

That is good news. I hope Rizzo and the Nats can work out a deal. I'd like to see it for 5 years.

Offline PowerBoater69

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Re: Is Davey’s seat getting warm?
« Reply #4671: August 23, 2023, 10:52:40 PM »
Svrluga is reporting that Mark Lerner bypassed Rizzo with the Martinez extension: https://www.audacy.com/theteam980/sports/nationals/hoffman-barry-svrluga-breaks-down-mike-rizzo-white-sox-idea

From the article:
Quote
“My understanding is discussions are going on with Rizzo, and this is strictly an ownership decision,” Svrluga said. “Yes, Rizzo supports Dave Martinez and is his boss, but my understanding is that extension came straight from ownership.”

This leak could only have come from Rizzo, right?

Offline Senatorswin

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Re: Re: Is Davey’s seat getting warm?
« Reply #4672: August 23, 2023, 11:43:00 PM »
Svrluga is reporting that Mark Lerner bypassed Rizzo with the Martinez extension: https://www.audacy.com/theteam980/sports/nationals/hoffman-barry-svrluga-breaks-down-mike-rizzo-white-sox-idea

From the article:
This leak could only have come from Rizzo, right?

Lerner needs to get a brain and sign Rizzo for 5 years.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Re: Is Davey’s seat getting warm?
« Reply #4673: August 24, 2023, 07:15:44 AM »
Svrluga is reporting that Mark Lerner bypassed Rizzo with the Martinez extension: https://www.audacy.com/theteam980/sports/nationals/hoffman-barry-svrluga-breaks-down-mike-rizzo-white-sox-idea

From the article:
This leak could only have come from Rizzo, right?
what purpose does the leak serve?

Offline PowerBoater69

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Re: Re: Is Davey’s seat getting warm?
« Reply #4674: August 24, 2023, 07:50:56 AM »
what purpose does the leak serve?

That's the rabbit hole I went down on Twitter last night:

Quote
Suddenly it seems more likely than ever that Mike Rizzo is leaving.

“If you’re not in, you’re in the way”, Rizzo famously stated after trading Brandon Kintzler who was accused of being the anonymous source critizicing Davey Martinez to the media. The Nats have another leaker and this time it is almost certainly Rizzo himself using Barry Svrluga to undermine his boss Mark Lerner.

Svrluga has been reporting that the Lerners had negotiated the Strasburg contract directly, bypassing their team president. Who else other than Rizzo has both the inside knowledge of those negotiations and the motivation to make it public? With just a few months remaining on his deal Rizzo is exonerating himself from the worst contract in baseball history. Transparently crossing his management.

Then today Svrluga has a second leak claiming that ownership bypassed Rizzo in negotiating a contract, this time the Davey Martinez extension. If I'm Mark Lerner I'm livid. His President of Baseball Operations is saying all the right things publicly, while secretly lobbing accusations of ownership meddling and mismanagement.

Svrluga's comment about the White Sox job is played off as idle speculation, avoiding the implication of tampering, except that Svrluga is being used as Rizzo's mouthpiece. So the questions are whether Rizzo is simply trying to leverage the open GM job(s) for more money? Or is Rizzo trying to paint himself in the best light as he prepares to hit the open market? How can Mark Lerner trust Rizzo at this point to work with him moving forward?

Or maybe Rizzo signs in the next few days and the rebuild continues.