Author Topic: 2025 Off-season - general thread  (Read 84396 times)

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Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: 2025 Off-season - general thread
« Reply #850 on: January 13, 2025, 12:27:36 pm »
still think one of Parker or Herz may end up in the bullpen.
Yes

Offline Slateman

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Re: 2025 Off-season - general thread
« Reply #851 on: January 13, 2025, 12:39:04 pm »
I'm okay with that starting lineup. There's no one there who is a complete waste of a spot. DH is weird churn role unless you have a star who can only play there. Josh Bell will be an upgrade there and I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of Chappy or Yepez

Ahmed Rosario is likely on bench because he can play entire infield and I think some corner OF. He won't be getting starts, but if someone gets hurt, he can go out there. More I think about that signing, less irritated I am. Makes sense at the price point.

I'm not too worried about the bench because of that entire starting lineup, only Bell is someone you really need to pinch run for. There's no one who is a definite defensive sub position near end of the game.

I wouldn't be surprised if the bench is Yepez, Chaparro, Rosario. Chaparro has nothing left to earn raking in AAA, may as well have him on the bench. Same with Yepez. And Rosario can cover the backup middle IF. The entire IF and OF are players you want playing every single day. Yepez could start in LF if you need to give someone a day off if they get banged up. I'd love to see Lipscomb take a bench spot by force.

My guess is Tena's future is bench player and not here since he doesn't fit as a pairing to Abrams. Play him every day, hope the glove improved, if not then Brady House may be here sooner than he should be.

If Nationals are floating near .500 approaching the deadline, go find a 3B, C, or DH. Plenty in the system.

Who knows on pitching. Could be good, could be bad, I'm hoping for a bit better than fine.
Meh, Young and Bell are complete wastes in the lineup. We could get the same performance from Yepez as we're getting from Bell.

If Tena hits, they should push Abrams to CF and play Tena at SS. I don't see how Abrams could be a worse CFer than he is a SS. And Tena can't be worse there than Abrams.

Offline raleighnat

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Re: 2025 Off-season - general thread
« Reply #852 on: January 13, 2025, 09:26:11 pm »
It is offensive that they aren’t going after Bregman.  Why not?   Plenty of payroll to get to league average.  By the time his contract is material to other improvements, wood and crews won’t even be free agents.  This is ridiculous.  With bregman they’d have a solid lineup and with players developing we should be ready to approach 500.  Trade House.  Odds are very low he’s ever as good as bregman is right now.  And bregman market is tightening.  6 or 7 times 30?  Just do it. 

Offline varoadking

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Re: 2025 Off-season - general thread
« Reply #853 on: January 13, 2025, 10:00:51 pm »
Trade House.  Odds are very low he’s ever as good as bregman is right now.

It's embarrassing that House is considered to be our second best prospect...talk about a bare cupboard...

Offline Slateman

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Re: 2025 Off-season - general thread
« Reply #854 on: January 13, 2025, 10:22:30 pm »
It is offensive that they aren’t going after Bregman.  Why not?   Plenty of payroll to get to league average.  By the time his contract is material to other improvements, wood and crews won’t even be free agents.  This is ridiculous.  With bregman they’d have a solid lineup and with players developing we should be ready to approach 500.  Trade House.  Odds are very low he’s ever as good as bregman is right now.  And bregman market is tightening.  6 or 7 times 30?  Just do it. 
For one thing, Bregman is a cheater.

Second, he's shown declining hitting ability that is somewhat covered up by playing in a RHH friendly park.

Third, he wants a stupid amount of money for a guy that hits like Luis Garcia away from Houston.

Offline Slateman

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Re: 2025 Off-season - general thread
« Reply #855 on: January 13, 2025, 10:23:11 pm »
It's embarrassing that House is considered to be our second best prospect...talk about a bare cupboard...

MLB Pipeline has him third.

Offline IanRubbish

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Re: 2025 Off-season - general thread
« Reply #856 on: January 13, 2025, 10:35:28 pm »
For one thing, Bregman is a cheater.

Second, he's shown declining hitting ability that is somewhat covered up by playing in a RHH friendly park.

Third, he wants a stupid amount of money for a guy that hits like Luis Garcia away from Houston.

Irrelevant either way, 3B will be a low budget platoon with A. Rosario and Tena. 

Offline IanRubbish

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Re: 2025 Off-season - general thread
« Reply #857 on: January 13, 2025, 10:41:50 pm »
I think what would be perceived as loyalty to ownership would actually make him more attractive to an owner looking for a new GM. In addition to the fact that he built a perennially contending and then a WS championship team when he was given the resources to do so, although I think his poor drafting and scouting also contributed to the team’s downfall.

Dayton Moore won a WS with the Royals, had a string of losing seasons, got fired, and now can't get another GM job.  Nats scouting is also ranked among the worst in the league per today's WaPo article.  Rizzo's approach of withholding information to the media/public, and being hyperdefensive also wouldn't play well.   

Offline HondoKillebrew

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Re: 2025 Off-season - general thread
« Reply #858 on: January 13, 2025, 10:49:54 pm »
Dayton Moore won a WS with the Royals, had a string of losing seasons, got fired, and now can't get another GM job.  Nats scouting is also ranked among the worst in the league per today's WaPo article.  Rizzo's approach of withholding information to the media/public, and being hyperdefensive also wouldn't play well.

I wouldn’t hire him based on the crappy scouting and drafting history, but I don’t agree that owners looking to hire a GM would necessarily take issue with Rizzo’s actions with respect to media or public relations.

Offline imref

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Re: 2025 Off-season - general thread
« Reply #859 on: January 14, 2025, 08:45:01 am »
28 days until pitchers and catchers report.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: 2025 Off-season - general thread
« Reply #860 on: January 14, 2025, 08:49:35 am »
It is offensive that they aren’t going after Bregman.  Why not?   Plenty of payroll to get to league average.  By the time his contract is material to other improvements, wood and crews won’t even be free agents.  This is ridiculous.  With bregman they’d have a solid lineup and with players developing we should be ready to approach 500.  Trade House.  Odds are very low he’s ever as good as bregman is right now.  And bregman market is tightening.  6 or 7 times 30?  Just do it. 
I'm not quite there on "offensive." It's a strategic choice. They've loaded up on 3rd base candidates figuring one will payoff this year by the end of the year and then have 6 years of team control. Just like a QB and a left tackle on rookie contracts is an enormous advantage in the NFL, the strategy is to have 6 or so regulars in pre-arb plus most of the rotation before they try to surround that with high AAV free agents. In their minds, Wood, Crews, Abrams, Garcia, plus a 3rd baseman are their offensive core, surrounded by a top tier defensive CF and the bust they have at catcher. I get that you're saying, "well, instead of waiting for a 3rd baseman, why not just bring in Bregman, deal House, or have House pick up a 1st base glove once he shows he's hitting?" but OTOH, there's a thought, not just among Nats management, that Bregman hasn't been brilliant in recent years and is asking for a contract that has high albatross risk.

I am not smart enough about baseball to really understand the downsides of Bregman's performance and what to expect from him going forward. Boston and Detroit are supposed to be in on him, but Houston who knows him best and has solid management chose a different path (Walker and Paredes for shorter terms; reminds me of why I wanted Walker). My preference would be to go after Santander for 4 or 5 years, not lock in a DH like Bell, use a rotation at DH, or let Crews play CF and deal Young and a maybe Irvin or Parker for another need. 

Offline varoadking

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Re: 2025 Off-season - general thread
« Reply #861 on: January 14, 2025, 08:55:44 am »
This team should not want Bregman...and it doesn't appear that they do...

If you're gonna trade House for someone, you need to do it now before his stock drops any further...but that's not the Nats way...(see: Carter Kieboom)

Offline Slateman

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Re: 2025 Off-season - general thread
« Reply #862 on: January 14, 2025, 10:32:11 am »
200 million for a .768 OPS? Hard pass

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: 2025 Off-season - general thread
« Reply #863 on: January 14, 2025, 10:41:11 am »
Irrelevant either way, 3B will be a low budget platoon with A. Rosario and Tena.
Yup.

Offline imref

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Re: 2025 Off-season - general thread
« Reply #864 on: January 14, 2025, 10:45:02 am »
i'm thinking House will get every opportunity to win the job in ST.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: 2025 Off-season - general thread
« Reply #865 on: January 14, 2025, 11:07:32 am »
i'm thinking House will get every opportunity to win the job in ST.
too soon. I don't think he wins the job if he has a 2024 Wood-like spring.

Offline raleighnat

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Re: 2025 Off-season - general thread
« Reply #866 on: January 14, 2025, 12:09:18 pm »
I'm not quite there on "offensive." It's a strategic choice. They've loaded up on 3rd base candidates figuring one will payoff this year by the end of the year and then have 6 years of team control. Just like a QB and a left tackle on rookie contracts is an enormous advantage in the NFL, the strategy is to have 6 or so regulars in pre-arb plus most of the rotation before they try to surround that with high AAV free agents. In their minds, Wood, Crews, Abrams, Garcia, plus a 3rd baseman are their offensive core, surrounded by a top tier defensive CF and the bust they have at catcher. I get that you're saying, "well, instead of waiting for a 3rd baseman, why not just bring in Bregman, deal House, or have House pick up a 1st base glove once he shows he's hitting?" but OTOH, there's a thought, not just among Nats management, that Bregman hasn't been brilliant in recent years and is asking for a contract that has high albatross risk.

I am not smart enough about baseball to really understand the downsides of Bregman's performance and what to expect from him going forward. Boston and Detroit are supposed to be in on him, but Houston who knows him best and has solid management chose a different path (Walker and Paredes for shorter terms; reminds me of why I wanted Walker). My preference would be to go after Santander for 4 or 5 years, not lock in a DH like Bell, use a rotation at DH, or let Crews play CF and deal Young and a maybe Irvin or Parker for another need. 

Whether Bregman is the right investment isn't really my point.  The point is that we are being gaslighted to believe there is a trade off if we overpay.  Our payroll is so far below what a normal operating payroll should be for the DC market that it is embarrassing. 

Some will say that if we can't win it all, why not save your bullets.  First, I don't believe they are saving bullets to spend later. Secondly, this really understates the cost of being non-competitive.  In effect, our season is going to be over in May - AGAIN.  I think this causes enormous damage to the franchise and is just salt in the wound for fans.

Offline IanRubbish

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Re: 2025 Off-season - general thread
« Reply #867 on: January 14, 2025, 12:31:34 pm »
i'm thinking House will get every opportunity to win the job in ST.

In addition to service time considerations, he put up a .655 OPS last year at AAA, with a nearly 10:1 strikeout to walk.  He'll likely be in Rochester to the Super 2 deadline time frame at least.

Offline Smithian

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Re: 2025 Off-season - general thread
« Reply #868 on: January 14, 2025, 12:38:40 pm »
I want Bregman if he realizes the market isn't there and will go shorter on the contract. But, in that case, I expect Astros will welcome him back or he signs with a contender.

I don't want to spring $150+ million on a guy whose OPS has slowly dropped past three years and is good, not great, player at 30. I feel like there will always be a 4 or 5 WAR player at the deadline if you're ready to pay. Nats won't be good without real improvement from Crews, Woods, Abrams and the young pitching continuing to develop. If that happens and the Nats arrive at the deadline around .500 with salary flexibility and a farm system that for first time has at least some assets, then they will be able to pick up talent.

This isn't a "go for it" offseason but it's been less depressing than the last couple. I do think if we make it to Opening Day without extension for at least complementary pieces like Luis Garcia then we've wasted salary flexibility.

Offline Smithian

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Re: 2025 Off-season - general thread
« Reply #869 on: January 14, 2025, 12:39:25 pm »
i'm thinking House will get every opportunity to win the job in ST.
I think so too but I don't think he'll earn it.

I think he'll need to show a lot in AAA to get a call up

Offline imref

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Re: 2025 Off-season - general thread
« Reply #870 on: January 14, 2025, 12:50:13 pm »
I'd rather we sign Santander on a 3 year deal, move Crews to CF, and Young to the bench.

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: 2025 Off-season - general thread
« Reply #871 on: January 14, 2025, 01:23:23 pm »
I want Bregman if he realizes the market isn't there and will go shorter on the contract. But, in that case, I expect Astros will welcome him back or he signs with a contender.

I don't want to spring $150+ million on a guy whose OPS has slowly dropped past three years and is good, not great, player at 30. I feel like there will always be a 4 or 5 WAR player at the deadline if you're ready to pay. Nats won't be good without real improvement from Crews, Woods, Abrams and the young pitching continuing to develop. If that happens and the Nats arrive at the deadline around .500 with salary flexibility and a farm system that for first time has at least some assets, then they will be able to pick up talent.

This isn't a "go for it" offseason but it's been less depressing than the last couple. I do think if we make it to Opening Day without extension for at least complementary pieces like Luis Garcia then we've wasted salary flexibility.
That's where I am.  Don't need to overpay for declining guys.

Season should be fun.  Can Wood sustain over a whole season?  How will Crews do? Will CJ stay out of the casino?  Can Gore for a full season at a top level.  Can Irvin and Herz and Parker show they are the real deal?  Can Ruiz bounce back?

Offline IanRubbish

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Re: 2025 Off-season - general thread
« Reply #872 on: January 14, 2025, 01:23:43 pm »
Re: Bregman, he's got a close comp with Matt Chapman, who Boras sold to SF for 6 years, $151 million, and Chapman hasn't showed the same decline.  Meanwhile, Boras turned down 6/$156 million from Houston for Bregman and is negotiating in the press. This is a situation to stay away from for any team, not to mention this fine low spending operation.

Offline Smithian

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Re: 2025 Off-season - general thread
« Reply #873 on: January 14, 2025, 01:25:38 pm »
I'd rather we sign Santander on a 3 year deal, move Crews to CF, and Young to the bench.
That move makes enough sense to me that I can only assume he's outside the Lerner budget. Will have to make final opinion once he signs somewhere.

We desperately need power. Even if he stepped back and his OPS was around .750, a power first guy would still be a nice add. And he can easily fit into the DH in a year or two if it is really bad defensively. And he has had a couple short cups of coffee at first, so he could be hid their in a crunch.

Offline Smithian

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Re: 2025 Off-season - general thread
« Reply #874 on: January 14, 2025, 01:30:13 pm »
That's where I am.  Don't need to overpay for declining guys.

Season should be fun.  Can Wood sustain over a whole season?  How will Crews do? Will CJ stay out of the casino?  Can Gore for a full season at a top level.  Can Irvin and Herz and Parker show they are the real deal?  Can Ruiz bounce back?
I'm actually excited to watch this season. There shouldn't be an at bat I'm bored by the player in the starting lineup. And there is no Patrick Corbin.