2025 Off-season - general thread

[rileyn]

What's concerning is the Phillies have a stronger farm system right now than the Nats.  One hope for this team within the NL East is Philly and NYM tripping over aging contracts, if they actually develop prospects that could be a big problem.

This is the point many do not talk about.  It sucks, but signing a bigger name FA isn't going to catapult us ahead of Philly, NYM, and Atlanta for a few years.  We are biding our time and hoping their contracts do not age gracefully while our young players develop.  It's tough to stomach but we are going to finish 4th in the division the next 2 years.

[English Natsie]

According to mlb.com, Wood is the 'dark-horse' candidate to be the best player in the NL East. No pressure there, then, James....

[nobleisthyname]

This is the point many do not talk about.  It sucks, but signing a bigger name FA isn't going to catapult us ahead of Philly, NYM, and Atlanta for a few years.  We are biding our time and hoping their contracts do not age gracefully while our young players develop.  It's tough to stomach but we are going to finish 4th in the division the next 2 years.

Even if those contract don't age gracefully it's going to be tough to compete against teams willing to spend in the top-5 of payroll and are better at developing talent. At some point the Lerners will need to spend commensurate with our market size if they wish to compete.

And regardless of when our next window starts, it will likely close around 2030 when the current core has all hit free agency. The longer the team waits to try and open the window the shorter it will be overall.

[Slateman]

Even if those contract don't age gracefully it's going to be tough to compete against teams willing to spend in the top-5 of payroll and are better at developing talent. At some point the Lerners will need to spend commensurate with our market size if they wish to compete.

And regardless of when our next window starts, it will likely close around 2030 when the current core has all hit free agency. The longer the team waits to try and open the window the shorter it will be overall.

The Phillies and Mets have developed like 3 players in the last five years. Why do we suddenly think they're gonna start churning out all stars?

[nobleisthyname]

The Phillies and Mets have developed like 3 players in the last five years. Why do we suddenly think they're gonna start churning out all stars?

I'm just going off farm system rankings, which are admittedly far from perfect. But it's not like the Nationals have a good track record of developing talent either.

[HalfSmokes]

I'm just going off farm system rankings, which are admittedly far from perfect. But it's not like the Nationals have a good track record of developing talent either.

People say this about most teams, but players have to come from somewhere. Neither the Mets or Phillies seem like outliers if you look at the number of homegrown players on the 40 man https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/mets

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I'm just going off farm system rankings, which are admittedly far from perfect. But it's not like the Nationals have a good track record of developing talent either.

Wait. Between guys they drafted and developed or traded for in the Soto deal, they have come up with 5 regulars who are average or maybe considerably better plus 3-4 rotation pieces in the past 2+ years (ok, Garcia was earlier). Several of those guys were not uber prospects (Young, Parker,Irvin,Herz). That’s a good development record in recent years

[Natsinpwc]

The Phillies and Mets have developed like 3 players in the last five years. Why do we suddenly think they're gonna start churning out all stars?

Go and argue with the folks who do the rankings.

For the Phillies I can think of.

Ranger Suarez
Nola (more than 5 years)
Christopher Sanchez
Kerkering
Bohm
Stott
And Moniak was traded for Marsh
Johan Rojas.

Likely Painter this year. And Miller and Crawford next year.

Not many stars but they seem to be in much better shape than a few years ago. Since Dombrowski and his crew took over.

[nobleisthyname]

Wait. Between guys they drafted and developed or traded for in the Soto deal, they have come up with 5 regulars who are average or maybe considerably better plus 3-4 rotation pieces in the past 2+ years (ok, Garcia was earlier). Several of those guys were not uber prospects (Young, Parker,Irvin,Herz). That’s a good development record in recent years

I don't think you can count Abrams as a development success since he was already a major leaguer at the time of the trade, plus he still hasn't really taken the step forward we all hope from him, though he's shown flashes. But overall point taken. The team is still lacking that impact talent, but hopefully that's what Wood and Crews provide.

Still my overall point is more I think it's a mistake to wait on the Mets/Phillies/Braves to meaningfully decline in talent. The first two have shown a willingness to excessively spend their way to competitiveness and the Braves are one of the best run franchises in baseball. They've had like 5 bad seasons since I was born.

[Slateman]

Suarez is never healthy

Kerking is a reliever with one good year.

Bohm is a light hitting first baseman they are forced to play at third

Stott is a light hitting defensive-inclined 2B.

Rojas is a poor man's Jacob Young.

And if we're including trades, this isn't even close. James Wood, Young, Garcia, Abrams, Irvin, Lowe, and Gore all here and developed in the last five years.

Dombrowski has burned all his salary leeway, and is now running through his farm system trying to keep chasing postseason collapses.

[Natsinpwc]

Suarez is never healthy

Kerking is a reliever with one good year.

Bohm is a light hitting first baseman they are forced to play at third

Stott is a light hitting defensive-inclined 2B.

Rojas is a poor man's Jacob Young.

And if we're including trades, this isn't even close. James Wood, Young, Garcia, Abrams, Irvin, Lowe, and Gore all here and developed in the last five years.

Dombrowski has burned all his salary leeway, and is now running through his farm system trying to keep chasing postseason collapses.

They’ve won five postseason series over the last three years. And went to the World Series one year as a wild card and then the NLCS the next. Imagine trying to chase the post season again. They will have 90 wins again this season and probably next.  While the Nats schedule converts to boost attendance because they can’t contend.

[Slateman]

They’ve won five postseason series over the last three years. And went to the World Series one year as a wild card and then the NLCS the next. Imagine trying to chase the post season again. They will have 90 wins again this season and probably next.  While the Nats schedule converts to boost attendance because they can’t contend.

Yea, helps to have 250+ million in payroll flexibility.

[Natsinpwc]

Yea, helps to have 250+ million in payroll flexibility.

Like you’ve said many times all the owners have money to spend.

[imref]

PECOTA has us at 74 wins, 4th place:

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/

They have Hassell and House in the majors at some point.

[nobleisthyname]

PECOTA has us at 74 wins, 4th place:

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/

They have Hassell and House in the majors at some point.

If Wood and Crews can turn in 3+ WAR seasons I'd take the over on that.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

74 / 75 is where a few projections come in

[varoadking]

PECOTA has us at 74 wins, 4th place:

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/

They have Hassell and House in the majors at some point.

That should be enough to get the coaching staff a 3 year extension...

[imref]

ZiPS says signing Bregman doubles our playoff odds (from 5.7% to 11.4%).

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/bregging-the-question/

[Smithian]

This offseason is unquestionably better than the last few winters, it still just feels like a bit of a letdown.

I'll be legit excited when Opening Day gets here since there is a good chance I'll have serious interest in actually watching every position starter and rotation piece. That'll be first time in a long time I say that. Just wish there had been maybe one flash signing, a home run or at least a triple, instead of a bunch of signings where I just nodded and thought, "Makes sense"

[imref]

74 / 75 is where a few projections come in

last year it was 58. so decent improvement.

[rileyn]

This offseason is unquestionably better than the last few winters, it still just feels like a bit of a letdown.

I'll be legit excited when Opening Day gets here since there is a good chance I'll have serious interest in actually watching every position starter and rotation piece. That'll be first time in a long time I say that. Just wish there had been maybe one flash signing, a home run or at least a triple, instead of a bunch of signings where I just nodded and thought, "Makes sense"

My excitement level for watching each position this year:
C - 20%.  Ruiz is not it. 
1B - 60%
2B - 50%
SS - 75%
3B - 0%
RF - 100% must see
CF - 60%
LF - 100% must see
SP - 100%
RP - 0%

[Slateman]

C - 0%
1B - 10%
2B - 20%
3B - (-100%)
SS - 40%
RF - 60%
CF - 0%
LF - 60%
SP - 20% (until Herz and/or Cavalli get called up)
RP - 0%

[welch]

I am NOT looking forward to the season. Sign Bregman, and yes, I will hope a little when the Nats play the Mets or Fillies or Barves, but this was the offseason to buy a hitter and a starting pitcher. If free agents are more expensive than when Scherzer signed, that's just the market. The prices will not come down.

[HalfSmokes]

It’s a consensus 4th place roster. There is a limit to how excited I’m going to get to watch a team fight it out with the Marlins for last in the division

[imref]

i'm looking forward to it solely to see what Crews and Wood will do over a full season. But sure would have been nice if Santander were in RF and Alonso at DH/1B