2025 Off-season - general thread

[varoadking]

I hated Bryce after he left. Now, I’m back to loving him. I wish him all the personal success in the world as long as he never wins a ring with the Phillies.

I’m very happy they traded for luzardo. Gave up an 18 year old Top 100 prospect for a major leaguer with two years of service time left who is still all potential and very little results

I don't blame him one bit for rejecting the bullcrap way the Lerner's handled the extension and was ecstatic that he did and that he left after he dogged it during his 2018 season...

I wish him nothing but abject failure for the rest of his career...

I will say that he was among the most little kid-fan friendly players I've ever encountered, and give him a lot of credit for that...

[IanRubbish]

I don't blame him one bit for rejecting the bullcrap way the Lerner's handled the extension and was ecstatic that he did and that he left after he dogged it during his 2018 season...

Absolutely.  Their offer deferred 1/3 of his salary, with payments to 2052.  Don't blame him for leaving. 

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Stealing a point made by "Ghost" Mears at TalkNats:
https://www.talknats.com/2025/01/01/a-new-year-and-new-dreams/#more-66437

And for those who think the Nats haven’t spent enough, they have spent the 15th most in just free agent dollars per MLB Trade Rumors with the signings of RHP Michael Soroka, RHP Trevor Williams, and DH Josh Bell. But when you factor in all of the new money, they will commit well over $25 million for two years to Nathaniel Lowe who they acquired via a trade for Robert Garcia. That money to Lowe is in addition to the $29 million of guaranteed free agent money already committed. And keep in mind that Garcia would have been making the league minimum money of $760,000 this year. Factor in that Lowe money, and the Nats total spent would be 11th most in baseball.

Another point he makes is that this team gets massively better just by eliminating the giant sucking sounds of Corbin, Gallo, Rainey, and the likes of other guys purged earlier in 2024.

The Lowe move is pretty underrated here. Even if you only project 15-20 HRs, the guy provides a nice floor that's substantially above the play we got out of 1st last year.  A 120 OPS+ projection with above-average D, that move is a 3+ win upgrade. Lowe is also not a boom bust, rebound play. Rather, he's a high floor kind of guy, with fWARs in the 2.7-3.1 range the past 3 years, and no full-time season below 2 in his career.

Similarly, Bell should be a big upgrade over our DH performance against RHP last year. Easy enough, since a lot of those ABs went to Meneses. We had a .696 OPS vs RHP in 2024 while Bell managed a .734. For his last 3 years, even with his streakiness, he's been a .733 OPS guy vs. RHP.
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/josh-bell/13145/splits-tool?position=1B&splitArr=2&splitArrPitch=&autoPt=false&splitTeams=false&statType=player&statgroup=1&startDate=2022-01-01&endDate=2024-11-01&players=&filter=&groupBy=career&wxTemperature=&wxPressure=&wxAirDensity=&wxElevation=&wxWindSpeed=&sort=-1%2C1
Have him split time with Chaparro, Garrett, or Yepez, and that suddenly is at least a league average DH, probably top third.

Signing Bregman is not necessary for a similar improvement at 3rd. Simply getting a good defensive guy who is not awful at the plate (say, a 90 wRC+ player) would be a big upgrade. Josh Rojas or Yoan Moncada would fit as bats; Paul DeJong is probably just a defense and power guy with holes in his offense.

Plug the 3rd base spot with league average performance, to go along with Lowe and improvements at DH, and all of a sudden the team has average or above projections at pretty much all positions except C. That sounds like a .500 or maybe better lineup.

[imref]

i feel like every year we hear "this team will be so much better by eliminating guys who sucked the previous year" and then we end up with folks like Rosario, Senzel, and Gallo.

FWIW, we were 10-15 last September after cutting those three (and Meneses) and bringing up Wood & Crews to play full-time.

Right now, based on where we ended last year, we've replaced Chaparro and Yepiz with Bell & Lowe, and Corbin with Soroka. That's certainly an improvement, but not a massive one. Maybe we replace Parker with Williams as well?

I'm more excited about seeing what we get out of full seasons of Wood and Crews. And hopefully Abrams returns to 1st half form (anyone want to take bets?)

[JCA-CrystalCity]

i feel like every year we hear "this team will be so much better by eliminating guys who sucked the previous year" and then we end up with folks like Rosario, Senzel, and Gallo.

FWIW, we were 10-15 last September after cutting those three (and Meneses) and bringing up Wood & Crews to play full-time.

Right now, based on where we ended last year, we've replaced Chaparro and Yepiz with Bell & Lowe, and Corbin with Soroka. That's certainly an improvement, but not a massive one. Maybe we replace Parker with Williams as well?

I disagree. I don't see the Lowe move as anything like a "let's roll the dice and hope this formerly good player or prospect can bounce back to that level." There's just so much less risk in these moves than there was in the assorted Gallo / Candelario / Senzel / Dom Smith moves. Same goes for Bell. Soroka is the roll the dice move, but we have 6 starters. I just don't see him as starting after 5/25 if he bombs out the first couple of months.

[varoadking]

i feel like every year we hear "this team will be so much better by eliminating guys who sucked the previous year" and then we end up with folks like Rosario, Senzel, and Gallo.

FWIW, we were 10-15 last September after cutting those three (and Meneses) and bringing up Wood & Crews to play full-time.

Right now, based on where we ended last year, we've replaced Chaparro and Yepiz with Bell & Lowe, and Corbin with Soroka. That's certainly an improvement, but not a massive one. Maybe we replace Parker with Williams as well?

I'm more excited about seeing what we get out of full seasons of Wood and Crews. And hopefully Abrams returns to 1st half form (anyone want to take bets?)

This is actually a good take... 

I'm still thinking their record doesn't improve and yet we'll still extend the entire coaching staff at the end of the year.  This organization is rotten from the head down...

[JCA-CrystalCity]

This is actually a good take... 

I'm still thinking their record doesn't improve and yet we'll still extend the entire coaching staff at the end of the year.  This organization is rotten from the head down...

I may be OD'ing on koolaid but I am thinking closer to 81 wins than 71 if they improve at 3rd and sign some bullpen help

[HalfSmokes]

I may be OD'ing on koolaid but I am thinking closer to 81 wins than 71 if they improve at 3rd and sign some bullpen help

Not with these starters. Going by zips projections, we have one fourth and five fifth starters

[varoadking]

I may be OD'ing on koolaid but I am thinking closer to 81 wins than 71 if they improve at 3rd and sign some bullpen help

I just don't see it.  I think they actually overperformed last year given their roster and that coaching staff...

[Slateman]

Stealing a point made by "Ghost" Mears at TalkNats:
https://www.talknats.com/2025/01/01/a-new-year-and-new-dreams/#more-66437
Another point he makes is that this team gets massively better just by eliminating the giant sucking sounds of Corbin, Gallo, Rainey, and the likes of other guys purged earlier in 2024.

There are two problems. The first is that NatsTalk assumes that the Nats would have spent the 29 million they did and added Torres at 17.5 million AAV. And I don't know if that's really an assumption we should be making. Frankly, I don't believe that would be the case.

But, for the sake of argument, let's assume they were willing to do that. They spent that money on crap. This team was 26-29 with Trevor Williams pitching a sub-3 ERA, Jesse Winker posting a 113 wRC+, and a lights out bullpen. And this is marginal improvements on offense with Lowe replacing Winker, Bell replacing Gallo, and Soroka replacing  Corbin.

Factoring in a worse bullpen and the worst defensive left side of an infield in baseball, is this team really better? At best, marginally.

This money could have been much more effectively spent. 46.5 million gets you an impact full starting pitcher (Fried, Flaherty, or Manaea) and had money to get an impactful hitter like Joc Pederson or Carlos Santana. Or you could use that money on a big bat (Adames, Walker, Alonso, Santander) and still signed Williams. Then we could have leveraged our farm system to get a starting pitcher (Crochet, Jones, Keller)

But hey, we got Soroka and Bell. 2019 me is super excited.

[Mattionals]

It is a signal that the Nats are making minor moves, but not committed to the push yet. Now is that indicative of unwillingness to spend at the ownership level, or is it that the team hasn't shown enough to see if it's built for the next step? I think the former honestly.

[imref]

It is a signal that the Nats are making minor moves, but not committed to the push yet. Now is that indicative of unwillingness to spend at the ownership level, or is it that the team hasn't shown enough to see if it's built for the next step? I think the former honestly.

maybe a little of both?

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Part of my optimism is I think there are still some roster tweaks coming. Specifically, I think there's a defensive 3rd baseman coming as well as 1 or two relievers. Maybe DeJong and Chris Martin and another arm.

[varoadking]

Part of my optimism is I think there are still some roster tweaks coming. Specifically, I think there's a defensive 3rd baseman coming as well as 1 or two relievers. Maybe DeJong and Chris Martin and another arm.

It seems we can agree on 1 thing anyway...this is not a .500+ team, and the only thing they will be contending for is 4th place in the Division.  Be interesting to see if they can keep fans engaged...

At least we have the Capitals back...and looking better than in some time.  Hope that continues into June before all we have left is the Nats...

[Natsinpwc]

It seems we can agree on 1 thing anyway...this is not a .500+ team, and the only thing they will be contending for is 4th place in the Division.  Be interesting to see if they can keep fans engaged...

At least we have the Capitals back...and looking better than in some time.  Hope that continues into June before all we have left is the Nats...

Don’t forget the Wizards are going for the number one pick!

[IanRubbish]

Since the '21 salary dumps, this franchise has been using lottery tickets instead of developing any sort of creative strategy.  Not just in lottery ticket Rule 5's and reclamation projects, but its approach on the basepaths. 

The idea is that speed is much cheaper than power, therefore they run like no one's business.  The problem was that their caught stealing rate rose as the season progressed, and they ended up with by far the highest number of caught stealings per game in the league.  Stolen bases aren't home runs because they become a negative when you get caught as much as this team did, especially after they were scouted.  They then layered some organizational dysfunction on top of this by not adjusting to being scouted, and playing-the-contract of a catcher who has been one of the worst at throwing out opposing baserunners since the new rules were implemented. 

The problem is not just unwillingness to spend, Tampa Bay and a few others don't spend but find ways to be competitive, but also poor drafting and development and weak baseball ops and strategy.  There's enough talent to squeeze out 75 wins, and it's rare for any team to go 5 straight seasons under .450 as this one has, at some point you naturally get a little better.   But running themselves out of games has to stop.  Nonetheless, I don't think it will, and it's all part of a lottery ticket approach to personnel and on field decision making that is failing miserably.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

There are two problems. The first is that NatsTalk assumes that the Nats would have spent the 29 million they did and added Torres at 17.5 million AAV. And I don't know if that's really an assumption we should be making. Frankly, I don't believe that would be the case.

They are about $30 million below their OD payroll from 2024. That includes Strasburg on the payroll but does not include Corbin's deferral, so call it $20 million below 2024. just spending up to 2024 payroll leaves room for more upgrades, including a cheap 3rd baseman who can give you 85 wRC+ and above average D. That makes CJ better, too. Leaves plenty to upgrade the bullpen.

[Slateman]

They are about $30 million below their OD payroll from 2024. That includes Strasburg on the payroll but does not include Corbin's deferral, so call it $20 million below 2024. just spending up to 2024 payroll leaves room for more upgrades, including a cheap 3rd baseman who can give you 85 wRC+ and above average D. That makes CJ better, too. Leaves plenty to upgrade the bullpen.

This is a 350+ million dollar generating team. The payroll is pathetic.

Those are filler moves you make after you secure big pieces. So basically, Rizzo is prepping for the deadline.

[tomwvr]

Not with these starters. Going by zips projections, we have one fourth and five fifth starters

I see 40-50 wins this season, we have one good starter one questionable starter and a bunch of JAGs
And we have 2 potential great outfielders and a bunch of JAGs

We are fielding a AAA team again this year

[Natsinpwc]

Don't forget that Gray will probably be back the last couple months of the year.

[SkinsNatFan21RIP]

It is a signal that the Nats are making minor moves, but not committed to the push yet. Now is that indicative of unwillingness to spend at the ownership level, or is it that the team hasn't shown enough to see if it's built for the next step? I think the former honestly.

We have 5 years worth of data now that they aren't willing to spend. You can add in even more years if you look at all the talent they willingly let go of. They're no longer going to spend under this ownership group. It will never happen. We're being held hostage while they wait out the offer they want to sell.

[nobleisthyname]

Don't forget that Gray will probably be back the last couple months of the year.

I don't know about probably. He had the surgery at the end of July. He would need a fast recovery and short rehab to be able to pitch in the majors this season.

[imref]

I don't know about probably. He had the surgery at the end of July. He would need a fast recovery and short rehab to be able to pitch in the majors this season.

Yeah, best case for Gray is a few minor league starts before the end of the year.

Cavalli is going to be more interesting to watch.

[Slateman]

I don't know about probably. He had the surgery at the end of July. He would need a fast recovery and short rehab to be able to pitch in the majors this season.

You 100% cannot count in Gray for anything next year. He had regular TJS and the brace. If he ever comes back, it'll be 2026.

[English Natsie]

Says everything that the mlb.com article 'one prediction for each team in 2025' covers post-season possibles, game records, significant signings, and so on for all teams. And for our 2025 Nationals? We'll decide who our closer shall be...    It's clearly going to be an exciting year...