2025 Off-season - general thread

[imref]

Where we stand: 12/16 edition:
1B: Yepez
2B: Garcia Jr.
SS: Abrams
3B: Tena
LF: Wood
CF: Young
RF: Crews
C: Ruiz
DH: Chaparro

Bench: Milas, Baker, Lipscomb, Nunez, Call

Rotation: Gore, Herz, Irvin, Parker, Rutledge

Bullpen: 6 of Willingham, Ferrar, Ribalta, Salazar, Reifert (Rule-5), Law, LaSorsa, Garcia, Brzykcy

60 Day IL: Adon, Gray, Thompson

40 man at AAA: Adams, Lara, Henry, Cavalli, plus the 3 bullpen arms who don't make the cut.

I assume Cavalli starts the year at AAA unless he somehow beats Rutledge out for the last spot. They could also go with a shorter bench and have 7 relievers instead of 6. Adams could be swapped for Milas.

[Natsinpwc]

Just sign Walker.  And one SP.  I vote for Kyle Gibson.  Innings eater.  Then call it an offseason.  Ho and some reclamation projects for the bullpen.  And Rutledge. 

[Natsinpwc]

Where we stand: 12/16 edition:
1B: Yepez
2B: Garcia Jr.
SS: Abrams
3B: Tena
LF: Wood
CF: Young
RF: Crews
C: Ruiz
DH: Chaparro

Bench: Milas, Baker, Lipscomb, Nunez, Call

Rotation: Gore, Herz, Irvin, Parker, Rutledge

Bullpen: 6 of Willingham, Ferrar, Ribalta, Salazar, Reifert, Law, LaSorsa, Garcia, Brzykcy

60 Day IL: Adon, Gray, Thompson

40 man at AAA: Adams, Lara, Henry, Cavalli, plus the 3 bullpen arms who don't make the cut.

I assume Cavalli starts the year at AAA unless he somehow beats Rutledge out for the last spot. They could also go with a shorter bench and have 7 relievers instead of 6.

They'll bring in one SP.  Might be a bargain basement type.  Let Rutledge try the bullpen. 

[Slateman]

Nationals 2025 ZiPS projections were posted today. Some solid projections compared to previous rebuild years with Wood, Crews, Abrams, García, and Chaparro all projected to be at least average major leaguers (though OTOH the highest projection is just Wood's 3.2 WAR). Pretty bearish on the rotation outside of Gore and especially bearish on the bullpen.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2025-zips-projections-washington-nationals/

I wonder what they see in Chapparo . . .

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Where we stand: 12/16 edition:
1B: Yepez
2B: Garcia Jr.
SS: Abrams
3B: Tena
LF: Wood
CF: Young
RF: Crews
C: Ruiz
DH: Chaparro

Bench: Milas, Baker, Lipscomb, Nunez, Call

Rotation: Gore, Herz, Irvin, Parker, Rutledge

Bullpen: 6 of Willingham, Ferrar, Ribalta, Salazar, Reifert (Rule-5), Law, LaSorsa, Garcia, Brzykcy

60 Day IL: Adon, Gray, Thompson

40 man at AAA: Adams, Lara, Henry, Cavalli, plus the 3 bullpen arms who don't make the cut.

I assume Cavalli starts the year at AAA unless he somehow beats Rutledge out for the last spot. They could also go with a shorter bench and have 7 relievers instead of 6. Adams could be swapped for Milas.

typically, it's 13 and 13. 2d catcher plus 3 others on the bench, 5 man rotation, 8 man bullpen.

[zimm_da_kid]

We should look at profar. Got some positional versatility so he could move around as we call prospects up

[IanRubbish]

Hard to see Rutledge and his 6.40 AAA ERA last year starting over Brad Lord.   

We still don't know about Cavalli's health.   That weird two high A starts then shut down in June has never been well explained. If I had to bet, I'd say he goes down as yet another power pitcher Rizzo drafted high because of a man crush who flamed out.  Meanwhile, Irvin, Herz, Parker, and Lord were all 4th round or later and never got anywhere near the hype.

Overall, agree with the high 70s win projection, maybe it's mid-70s, but a likely improvement with no Rosario/Gallo/Corbin.  Not getting there won't just be a personnel issue, but managerial and coaching - nonsensical lineups/baserunning/swing-at-everything/defense/Hickey Shuffle/being stolen on like no one's business.

[varoadking]

That looks like another 90+ loss team...

[IanRubbish]

That looks like another 90+ loss team...

Think we keep it in the mid-high 80s with the benefit of no play-the-contract for Corbin and no Rosario, Senzel, or Gallo.  Now if there's some more bargain bin signings and they get undeserved ABs or innings as Davey likes to give them, then yes, you're right.  This is as optimistic as we can be.  I'm also being generous about the continued damage created by Hickey and Coles. 

[Slateman]

That looks like another 90+ loss team...

It can get you to 75-78 wins

[tomwvr]

That looks like another 90+ loss team...

I will bid 100

[HalfSmokes]

This looks like a roster that can rival the pirates for profitability

[UMDNats]

I think I'd be a little disappointed with a 99 OPS+ season from Crews.

[UMDNats]

Where we stand: 12/16 edition:
1B: Yepez
2B: Garcia Jr.
SS: Abrams
3B: Tena
LF: Wood
CF: Young
RF: Crews
C: Ruiz
DH: Chaparro

Bench: Milas, Baker, Lipscomb, Nunez, Call

Rotation: Gore, Herz, Irvin, Parker, Rutledge

Bullpen: 6 of Willingham, Ferrar, Ribalta, Salazar, Reifert (Rule-5), Law, LaSorsa, Garcia, Brzykcy

60 Day IL: Adon, Gray, Thompson

40 man at AAA: Adams, Lara, Henry, Cavalli, plus the 3 bullpen arms who don't make the cut.

I assume Cavalli starts the year at AAA unless he somehow beats Rutledge out for the last spot. They could also go with a shorter bench and have 7 relievers instead of 6. Adams could be swapped for Milas.

It's honestly embarrassing that Mark Lerner is so indifferent to a franchise that won a World Series 5 years ago. The guy is such an jerk but the DC media is so incredibly soft that they carry water for him as a "good owner" even though his dad was the only one who cared.

Rizzo also carries some blame because even broke ass teams like the A's are making moves and trying to improve while he just hand-waves and blames the budget for 100% of the problems.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Hard to see Rutledge and his 6.40 AAA ERA last year starting over Brad Lord.   

We still don't know about Cavalli's health.   That weird two high A starts then shut down in June has never been well explained. If I had to bet, I'd say he goes down as yet another power pitcher Rizzo drafted high because of a man crush who flamed out.  Meanwhile, Irvin, Herz, Parker, and Lord were all 4th round or later and never got anywhere near the hype.

Overall, agree with the high 70s win projection, maybe it's mid-70s, but a likely improvement with no Rosario/Gallo/Corbin.  Not getting there won't just be a personnel issue, but managerial and coaching - nonsensical lineups/baserunning/swing-at-everything/defense/Hickey Shuffle/being stolen on like no one's business.

Cavalli was a college boy. Oklahoma. Like Irvin.

Yes, Rutledge is not going to start, but until we bring in an FA for the 40 man or we get out of spring training, he's on paper #5. I will guess Cavalli ends up with more starting innings in the majors than Rutledge, and that is a going out on a limb because Rut I think got more innings in MLB than Cavalli did in the minors last year.  Lord has a shot, too, like you say.

I think the era of social promotions and entitlements is done for the pitching staff. Parker and Irvin probably peak as mid-rotation guys but at least Irvin is a horse. If you go the Szymborski article on ZiPS projections, I'm kind of shocked at the 3 top near-age comparable pitchers to Parker: Jerry Reuss, Alex Graman, and Jarrod Washburn. I'd take Reuss any day of the week. Irvin also has some nice comps: Ervin Santana, Jim Slaton, and Matt Garza. As for Herz, the high Ks and questionable BBs (at least in the minors) makes Mark Langston, Juan Nieves, and Gio his top comps. I'd love that.  Lord, by the way, has Zach Eflin as his top comp.

I'm not getting into record projections yet. I may be naive, but I expect some significant lineup changes and I don't think they will / should go into next year with just Law and Garcia as the primary relievers. I'd even think a Carlos Santana and Yoan Moncada would be upgrades. Let me scratch Moncada . . .

[JCA-CrystalCity]

From a Nats perspective, the NYY leaning towards playing Bellinger in CF leaves them still in the first base market.

[nobleisthyname]

From a Nats perspective, the NYY leaning towards playing Bellinger in CF leaves them still in the first base market.

Probably makes them less desperate though, which might help in any bidding war. That said it's hard to imagine the Lerners engaging in any bidding war regardless of size so it's probably a moot point.

[Natsinpwc]

Joey Gallo is still available. 

[madj55]

Feels like if they don’t get Walker they aren’t really going to pivot and allocate that money elsewhere. Depressing.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

If they wanted to go short years or even 1 year, Carlos Santana or Goldy probably are less than $10 million options. Also, maybe Alonso would take a short high ASV deal.

[varoadking]

If they wanted to go short years or even 1 year, Carlos Santana or Goldy probably are less than $10 million options. Also, maybe Alonso would take a short high ASV deal.

Rizzo is pitcher centric.  I feel like that's what he'll look to spend money on...if anything at all...

[imref]

Rizzo is pitcher centric.  I feel like that's what he'll look to spend money on...if anything at all...

Trevor Williams is still available.

[zimm_da_kid]

Rizzo is pitcher centric.  I feel like that's what he'll look to spend money on...if anything at all...

Only pitchers left worth spending money on are Burnes and flaherty and both have serious flaws

[IanRubbish]

Feels like if they don’t get Walker they aren’t really going to pivot and allocate that money elsewhere. Depressing.

Also depressing to watch Rizzo's hoped for deadline flips get way too many ABs for half a season...and get nothing or next to nothing in return.  Not watching another season of Senzel, Rosario, Gallo, etc.  More interesting to watch 25 year olds with the chance of a future lose 90 games than to watch 31 year old never weres do the same.

[IanRubbish]

Re: pitchers, Boras wants Strasburg money for Corbin Burnes.  Also seems like he's ready to sit back and let teams bid up the contract a bit.  So forget Corbin Burnes, there's a better chance the Nats sign Corbin Bernsen and flip him at the deadline for Willie Mays Hays.

https://www.si.com/mlb/orioles/news/scott-boras-ownership-has-to-respond-orioles-pursue-corbin-burnes