I'm not quite ready to start a rotation thread, but Nusbaum's article a couple of days ago gives an excellent survey of the market for free agent starters that remain and the status of internal rotation locks and candidates.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2024/12/17/nationals-starting-pitching/Market for FA pitchers has been more expensive than thought at the start of the year and, while a number of pitchers have been signed, there remains several mid-rotation guys who arguably would slot in near the top of the Nats rotation while we anticipate, wait for, and give chances to internal options.
The 4 internal returners combine for only $5.4 million this year and had a 4.19 ERA in 2024.
Nusbaum notes:
Of the 29 free agent starters projected (via FanGraphs) to be worth at least one Win Above Replacement next season, 17 remain available.
...
Based on the market thus far, a variety of starter archetypes who could command low-to-mid-market money include injury-plagued upside bets (Spencer Turnbull, Mike Clevinger), aging journeymen who each have thrown twice as many innings as Washington’s quartet has combined (Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson and Charlie Morton) and a handful of onetime all-stars looking to recapture that magic (Michael Lorenzen, Martín Pérez).
He then discusses Trevor Williams, who at least has expressed an interest in coming back. Pretty uncertain market, and not clear what performance you are buying. If it is last year's and a bigger quantity, he's very good, but how likely does the market feel that that is his level.
Cavalli, in Nusbaum's words, is a "quandary." He says Cavalli is no longer in rehab mode and will compete for a slot in the rotation in the spring, but his lack of innings in 2024 puts limits on him. Given past practice, he says (and I agree) that, if healthy, he's likely going to be doing short starts in the minors before a call up as they try to push him longer into the season, rather than burn through his innings by mid-August.
He then mentions Lord as the closest to the majors. Stuart, Rutledge, and Lara are potential spot starters and rotation fillers for injuries on the 40 man, with the trio of Susana, Sykora, and Clemmey "multiple promotions" away from the majors.
Throughout, Rizzo has been giving ambiguous signals, saying at some points the old more talented pitching is a good thing and a vet is a possibility but also praising the internal depth. As for budget, he says a middle of the order bat is a priority, but also that the Lerners "have always given us the resources to be competitive." What BS.
