The ZDK Trade Proposal Extravaganza Thread To End All Threads #OhYeah

[varoadking]

Corbin has gone past his sell-by date...

He gave us 3 of likely the most important innings pitched in Nats history...and now we pay the piper for that...

[Natsinpwc]

Corbin has gone past his sell-by date...

He gave us 3 of likely the most important innings pitched in Nats history...and now we pay the piper for that...

He’s added a pitch which he needs as he has basically been a two pitch guy. That won’t work for him anymore. At least he is trying.  He should be as good as Gio was his last few years with the Nats. 

[varoadking]

He should be as good as Gio was his last few years with the Nats.

 

[Elvir Ovcina]

Answered above. Many teams are content to play out there current rosters. And as proof, take a look at what has been available via free agency and wasn't signed to start the season or well into the season.

Come July 30th, a LH SP has value by default.

No, you didn't answer it.  Ignore the "tomorrow."  If Rizzo waives Corbin on July 15th, any GM will have the chance to claim Corbin for free but owe what's left on his contract, which will then be roughly $95 million for 3.5 years.  Would any GM claim him?

Or put otherwise: If Corbin had been a free agent last winter, would he have gotten 4 years, $106 million?  Like hell he would have.  He'd have been lucky to get 3/60. 

[Slateman]

He’s added a pitch which he needs as he has basically been a two pitch guy. That won’t work for him anymore. At least he is trying.  He should be as good as Gio was his last few years with the Nats. 

Gio had three pitches.  . .

[Greg_SRT]

No, you didn't answer it.  Ignore the "tomorrow."  If Rizzo waives Corbin on July 15th, any GM will have the chance to claim Corbin for free but owe what's left on his contract, which will then be roughly $95 million for 3.5 years.  Would any GM claim him?

How would I know? The same can be said for Strasburg and a ton of players in the league. All of them are negative value?

Greinke got moved out of Arizona with a ton of money and years left. Was older.

[Elvir Ovcina]

How would I know? The same can be said for Strasburg and a ton of players in the league. All of them are negative value?

Greinke got moved out of Arizona with a ton of money and years left. Was older.

Strasburg certainly has negative trade value.  It doesn't make him a bad player.  It just means his contract is above market value.  The Nats could put Strasburg on waivers tomorrow and I guarantee you nobody would take him because they'd have to pay his contract. 

Greinke's essentially the same story as Verlander.  Arizona ate some salary to get decent prospects.   If they'd offered to trade him for a bucket of baseballs without eating salary, Houston probably would have taken it.  Therefore, not negative value.

[Greg_SRT]

Strasburg certainly has negative trade value. 

ok

[Elvir Ovcina]

ok

I ask you the same question as before with Corbin: if you put Strasburg on waivers tomorrow, who's taking him and his contract?  That's all this exercise is.

[Greg_SRT]

I ask you the same question as before with Corbin: if you put Strasburg on waivers tomorrow, who's taking him and his contract?  That's all this exercise is.

Greinke too and yet he was traded and the center of that blockbuster.

By your reasoning anyone past their first arbitration year is negative value

[Elvir Ovcina]

Greinke too and yet he was traded and the center of that blockbuster.

By your reasoning anyone past their first arbitration year is negative value

The D-backs ate a ton of money to get that done.  He didn't pass through waivers first.   

And no, not at all.  For example, Mike Trout has a lot of trade value despite having a huge contract.  Same for Betts.  Same for innumerable guys who are paid a lot but also reliably produce a lot.  Yu Darvish was traded despite his contract - not for a ton, because it's not a great contract, but the Cubs didn't eat salary and got some prospects and Davies back, so it was at least something.  Hence, positive trade value.   Heck, Scherzer has decent value because he's still good and isn't owed money beyond this year, despite being old and not as good as he once was. 

[imref]

I ask you the same question as before with Corbin: if you put Strasburg on waivers tomorrow, who's taking him and his contract?  That's all this exercise is.

NYY, LAD, San Diego, Anaheim, to name a few.

[Elvir Ovcina]

NYY, LAD, San Diego, Anaheim, to name a few.

Zero chance of any of those.  Sorry.  Not until he proves he's healthy for at least a month or two. 

[Greg_SRT]

The D-backs ate a ton of money to get that done.  He didn't pass through waivers first.   

And no, not at all.  For example, Mike Trout has a lot of trade value despite having a huge contract.  Same for Betts.  Same for innumerable guys who are paid a lot but also reliably produce a lot.  Heck, Scherzer has decent value because he's still good and isn't owed money beyond this year, despite being old and not as good as he once was.

And that’s why I said ok and left it alone.

Plenty of the big trades that have happened are by players that their former team sent money = negative trade value (by your reasoning).

We are at an impasse. I won’t agree that because a team sends money the player is of negative value.

[Elvir Ovcina]

And that’s why I said ok and left it alone.

Plenty of the big trades that have happened are by players that their former team sent money = negative trade value (by your reasoning).

We are at an impasse. I won’t agree that because a team sends money the player is of negative value.

Sending money is not the point.  Sending money in excess of the value you get back is the point. 

[Slateman]

NYY, LAD, San Diego, Anaheim, to name a few.

The Dodgers, maybe. But the rest .... no

[UMDNats]

patrick corbin sucks now and has a massive contract. no one is touching him

[Elvir Ovcina]

The Dodgers, maybe. But the rest .... no

Not if they ever want to be below the tax line in the next 6 years.  They need to pay a lot of money to some dudes that'll come due during Strasburg's contract.  And even they have never given a contract like that to an over-30 pitcher with a Tommy John history.

[Slateman]

Not if they ever want to be below the tax line in the next 6 years.  They need to pay a lot of money to some dudes that'll come due during Strasburg's contract.  And even they have never given a contract like that to an over-30 pitcher with a Tommy John history.

Probably. Ive said it before, if anyone else had signed Stras to that contract, we would be laughing our asses off at them

[JCA-CrystalCity]

A nice illustration of "negative value" is the Nick Punto plus throw ins deal between the LAD and Boston in 2012.  LA agreed to take on one player who had a huge contract but really could not even take the field anymore in Carl Crawford, and another guy who was still owed a lot of money, probably more than what he'd get in the open market at the time, but who could contribute to a contender in  Josh Beckett, as well as a useful,  properly priced veteran utility player in Nick Punto, but in order for the Red Sox to get back a bunch of lottery tickets that ended up never contributing at the major league level, they had to include a high dollar contract with surplus value in an MVP-level performer in Adrian Gonzalez.  The overwhelming reason Boston did that deal was to create CBT room to go out and sign the vets who made up their 2013 team (the other reason was supposedly attitude adjustments). 

Beckett's case is the closest to Corbin and Stras right now.  I believe he cleared August trade waivers prior to the deal (I think Gonzalez had been claimed by LAD).  To a contender, the extra value a stronger roster provides going into the playoffs might make them drive a less hard bargain for someone they perceive as short term help, but even then, they insisted on extra back.  Boston was willing to put Gonzalez in the deal only to get rid of Crawford's contract, too. 

With Corbin, there might be takers, but it is going to take some sweeteners to get anyone to take his contract on. I guessed $45MM of value to knock his contract back down to closer to 4 years, $60MM remaining. I may be a little high on that for a contender if he's pitching well, and if half this year is already paid out.  As for Stras, he really needs to show he's healthy because he's impossible to price  right now.   

[Smithian]

I'm not ready to give up on Corbin just yet. Moving him now would require a huge sweetener, either tons of cash or some of our precious few decent prospects.

He wasn't as bad last year as I remembered, with 1.2 fWAR in 11 starts.

I am worried he won't be the front of the rotation starter we hoped for to help transition us from Scherzer, but I think he can still be an inning eater. And I'm unfortunately in the camp that either in 2022 or 2023 we're going to experience a painful rebuild. Having a pitcher who can throw 200 innings will be a god send as we try to navigate a staff of AAAA arms and high velocity fliers.

The soonest Corbin could be moved in a package that wouldn't be ultra painful for the Nationals is 2023.

[Slateman]

Unless he has a career renaissance, moving Corbin is always going to be a negative value trade.

[Natsinpwc]

I'm not ready to give up on Corbin just yet. Moving him now would require a huge sweetener, either tons of cash or some of our precious few decent prospects.

He wasn't as bad last year as I remembered, with 1.2 fWAR in 11 starts.

I am worried he won't be the front of the rotation starter we hoped for to help transition us from Scherzer, but I think he can still be an inning eater. And I'm unfortunately in the camp that either in 2022 or 2023 we're going to experience a painful rebuild. Having a pitcher who can throw 200 innings will be a god send as we try to navigate a staff of AAAA arms and high velocity fliers.

The soonest Corbin could be moved in a package that wouldn't be ultra painful for the Nationals is 2023.

He needs to keep working in his change up and new cutter.  Could be a rough year but will help long term. A pitcher with a 4.50 ERA who can pitch 5/6 innings most outings has value.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Oh, I'm actually high on Corbin.  I think he will turn out to be more of a solid #2, taking the ball every 5th day and having an ERA between 3.5 and 4.0.  That's most of his career when he's been healthy.  Still, if you compare what he's paid to, say, Charlie Morton, he's above market.  Other than Bauer and the 2 guys who took the qualifying offer, no starting pitcher received more than $15MM, and several of the good ones ended up around $11MM. 

[zimm_da_kid]

Yadiel, Espino, Ross, kieboom, Barrera for Matt Olson and an arb eligible reliever.

The As are losing canha, Harrison, and Gomes this offseason so this would provide their replacements along with adding starters as bassit and manaea each are free agents after next season.  This package is full of major league ready controllable pieces who have shown they can play in the league.  I know y’all will think it’s unrealistic but it seems like a package that would be appealing to the As