Author Topic: The ZDK Trade Proposal Extravaganza Thread To End All Threads #OhYeah  (Read 46000 times)

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Offline Slateman

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He wouldn’t be eligible for free agency after 2024.  He would still have 3 arb years
You do understand that a team can waive that any time they want, right? Which means they can offer a three year deal, and thats it. Suzuki is past the age/Japenese service time. He's a free agent. He can sign whatever deal he wants.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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I may break this out into the Suzuki thread.

Are there any special rules regarding arb years for NPB players coming over? When I look at the pirates spreadsheet on cot's, they don't indicate any arb for tsutsugo. Same for reds and akiyama

Offline Slateman

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I may break this out into the Suzuki thread.

Are there any special rules regarding arb years for NPB players coming over? When I look at the pirates spreadsheet on cot's, they don't indicate any arb for tsutsugo. Same for reds and akiyama
Yea, there are.

If the player has 9 years professional experience, they are exempt from the posting system. Hideki Matsui was exempt when he signed with the Yankees in 2002 because he had played over 9 years in the NPB.

If a foreign born player is over 25 years old and has at least 6 years experience, they are exempt from international bonus pool rules, but they are subject to NPB's posting system. ll 30 MLB clubs have 30 days to negotiate with a player after he is posted.  For Major League contracts with a total guaranteed value of $25 million or less, the release fee will be 20 percent of the total guaranteed value of the contract. For Major League contracts with a total guaranteed value between $25,000,001 and $50 million, the release fee will be 20 percent of the first $25 million plus 17.5 percent of the total guaranteed value exceeding $25 million. For Major League contracts with a total guaranteed value of $50,000,001 or more, the release fee will be 20 percent of the first $25 million plus 17.5 percent of next $25 million plus 15 percent of the total guaranteed value exceeding $50 million. For all Minor League contracts, the release fee will be 25 percent of the signing bonus. For Minor League contracts that contain Major League terms, a supplemental fee will be owed if the player is added to the 25-man roster. If a posted player signs a Major League contract that contains bonuses, salary escalators or options, a Japanese team may receive a supplemental fee equal to 15 percent of any bonus or salary escalators actually earned by the player, and/or 15 percent of any option that is exercised. Yusei Kikuchi's contract is an example of this

Under the new rules, if the foreign born player is under 25 years old (or have less than 6 years experience in an MLB recognized professional league), they are subject to the international bonus pool money. This is Ohtani's situation and why he has arbitration and costs so little.

Offline Slateman

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I was feeling ZDKish on the first day of 2022, so I figured I'd go with it

Trade 1
Three team deal between the Nationals, Cubs, and Padres

Cubs Receive: Luis Campasano (Catcher - Padres), Wil Myers (OF/1B - Padres), Erick Fedde (RHP - Nationals), 6.2 million (Nationals to the Cubs to cover cost over luxury tax salary)

Padres Receive: Josh Bell (1B - Nationals) and Wilson Contreras (Catcher - Cubs)

Nationals Receive: Robert Hassell III (OF - Padres), Eric Hosmer (1B - Padres), Austin Nola (Catcher - Padres), Adrian Morejon (LHP - Padres), Euribiel Angeles (INF - Padres), Kyle Hendricks (RHP - Cubs)

Reasoning: The Padres came into this offseason needing three things: A better coaching staff (done), an improved bullpen with some depth (good start), and to clear payroll so they can add power hitting. They have to get rid of Eric Hosmer. Dumpin Wil Myers is enough to justify giving up Campusano in exchange for Contreras, with Hassell and Nola being the cost of the Nats picking up Myers and Hosmer. Morejon and Angeles are a bit low for what I value Bell at, but adding in Nola helps offset it. The Padres have a plethora of backup catchers, including Victor Carantani (Darvish's personal catcher), so they really don't need to hang on to Nola. This trade dramatically improves the Padres 2022 squad, doesn't take anyone other the Morejon who would have contributed in 2022, and gives them the payroll space to go after Nick Castellanos (they desperately need a corner OF with power).

The Cubs are the tricky part here as I don't know if they're willing to give up Hendricks. But all his peripherals indicate the beginning of a downturn and I'm hoping that getting such a prize  as a franchise catcher for what amounts to a year of Contreras and two years of a back of the rotation guy is tantalizing enough to give it up. I've thrown in Erick Fedde. At the very least, he can pitch, and a fresh start with a different organization might be what he needs to click.

For the Nats, it will be clear what I do with everyone else, but I'd like to get Kendricks here to provide guidance to a young pitching staff and young catcher core. Morejon has good stuff, but is coming off TJS and likely won't pitch until later this year. And he has significant reliever risk. I like Angeles but there's a ton of risk as he's only 19.

Trade 2
Three team deal between the Marlins, Nationals, and Diamondbacks

Diamondbacks Receive: Robert Hassell III (OF - Nationals (via the Padres)), Jose Salas (SS - Marlins)

Marlins Receive: Ketel Marte (OF/2B - Diamondbacks)

Nationals Receive: Max Meyer (RHP - Marlins), Jake Eder (LHP - Marlins), Cody Morrissette (INF - Marlins)

Reasoning: So, straight up, if the Nats just want to keep Hassell and call it a day, I'd be down with that. That being said, there is an opportunity here, as the Nationals are about to get a pretty big influx of OF talent that is all about the same age rage (17-21). I'm not saying they can't use one more, but I do think they could maximize Hassell in a better way.

Diamondbacks get Hassell and a nice SS prospect. Maybe they could hold out and get more prospects with big ceiling, high risk, but I think Hassell is enough to get them to not go that route. Adding Salas just sweetens the pot more.

The Marlins need hitting, badly. In fact, I'd say that with addition of Stallings and the emergence of their pitchers, they're two or three bats away from competing in a weak division. Marte is perfect for CF and could be a cornerstone of their lineup for the next three years.

For the Nats, first off, I love Cody Morrissette. Frankly, I think it's a lot easier to get a guy to develop power than to get a guy to develop contact and low strikeouts. He's about to turn 22 and has plenty of frame to grow into and get stronger. He reminds me a lot of Anthony Rendon. Max Meyer has ace potential. I think the Marlins would try and give up Eury Perez here, as Meyer would likely be ready for MLB starts after the 2022 ASB. However, I think the notion of not having to give up any of their top 3 position player prospects would be far to appealing. Meyer throws mid to upper 90s and has an absolutely devastating slider. Jake Eder is a nice LHP that needs development, which he could get in a now stocked system. Mid 90s with a nice slide piece from the left hand side is always welcome in a minor league system.

Trade 3
Two team trade between the Nationals and the Yankees

Yankees Receive: Austin Nola (Catcher - Nationals (via Padres))

Nationals Receive: Trey Sweeney (INF - Yankees), Ken Waldichuk (LHP - Yankees)

Reasoning: All of Yankeedom is pretty much done watching Sanchez let balls past him behind the plate. The catching market is absurd right now, and the Cubs getting Campusano for one year of Contreras is only going to aggravate the situation more. The Yankees need someone to manage a pitching staff and not get burned. Anything that person can do with the bat is going to be a bonus. This move will also enable them to offload Sanchez for someone who will take the salary, which they need to do because they are pretty much at the luxury tax threshold and Hal doesn't want to pay.

I know everyone wants Dominguez here. To be honest, if we were able to swing Ketel Marte, we probably could have sent to the Yankees for Domingez+. But the Yankees aren't that style any more and they're more likely to want Matt Olson. So, I kept it simple. Nola is really hard to figure value for. He struggles to stay healthy, but is extremely defensively talented. So I went small here, aiming for high ceiling, but needing of significant development. Sweeney is another good contact, less power guy. I have a type. I freely admit it. Sweeney will be 22 next season, is 6'4'', and weighs 200. He can develop some more pop. He probably ends up at third or first due to his speed. Waldichuck is a LHP who recently discovered a four seamer that can hit 96. He has two plus offspeed options. He's also shown some ability with a change. There's significant potential here and with some time, he could be a good option, either in the rotation or the pen.

Trade 4
Two team trade between the Nationals and the Guardians

Guardians Receive: Yadiel Hernandez (OF - Nationals), Tres Barrera (Catcher - Nationals)

Nationals Receive: Carlos Vargas (RHP - Guardians)
Reasoning: The Guardians are so cheap cash strapped, they declined a 7 million dollar option on a decent catcher. They need someone in a corner OF spot. Hernandez is a gamble because he may not repeat last season. But combined with Barerra and it’s a decent gamble.

For the Nats, Hernandez has little use on this team. He’s a LF/DH option on a team that has more than enough light hitting options for LF. Catcher is full up here in DC, so Barrera gets moved to a place where he gets a chance to win the starting job. Carlos Vargas just underwent TJS. He profiles as upper 90s, single inning reliever. He’s 22 and about to start low A ball all over again.



Free Agency
Richard Rodriguez – 1 year, 5 million. Rodriguez was highly coveted last season. And then found out he needed sticky stuff. I’m hoping that between the offseason to prepare and MLB and the MLBPA agreeing to a tackier baseball, Rodriguez will find his old self and go back to a double digit K/9 rate.

Keone Kela – 1 year, 1.2 million. In 2019, Kela was a really good reliever with closer potential. Then he hurt his elbow in the 2020 covid season. Signed with the Padres that offseason, tried to rehab, tore his UCL, and got TJS in May of this season. He likely won’t be ready for big league innings until mid-to-late June, so the Nats will give him the same deal the Padres did to rehab. With some luck, he’ll be back to his old self and can be dealt at the deadline for something.

Seiya Suzuki – 3 years, 45 million (4th year, player option at 20 million). Yea, yea, yea. No chance. But it’s ZDK thread so I do what I want. If you need realism, replace this with Kyle Schwarber). Suzuki is gonna be a freaking stud. And I love the idea of complementing the left handed Soto with the right handed Suzuki. Both guys love to take pitches and work counts. He’s only 27 and is in his prime. Give him 2022 to get used to MLB pitching and then watch him and Soto carry a re-surgent 2023 team to glory.

Come to Jesus Talk with Eric Hosmer – Hosmer has basically refused all attempts to fix his swing by San Diego. And the truth is, he’s a small adjustment away from being a productive hitter again, albiet, an overpaid one. He’s done it by mistake, both this year (right after the ASB) and last year, during the covid season. There are also reports about him being a malcontent, though they are mainly focused on it after he found out he was being shopped. So basically, the coaches, Zim, and probably Soto need to confront him: The Padres literally gave away prospects to get rid of him. If he isn’t going to put in the work to fix his crap, then the Nats will have zero qualms about cutting him. 3+ WAR seasons out of Max Meyer is easily worth 18 million AAV. Anything else we get is gravy. If he truly wants revenge, get in the cage, fix the launch angle, start OPSing over .800 against RHP again.

Offline zimm_da_kid

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Gimme a nice simple bell for hosmer, cj Abrams, and another of their prospects in the 10-20 range

Offline Slateman

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They arent giving up Abrams. And to be honest, I'd rather have Hassell

Offline UMDNats

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slate did some coke and went full ZDK, don't even need to read the deals to know i'm all-in.

soto needs to use his infinity stones to fix hosmer once he's here

Offline Natsinpwc

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Gimme a nice simple bell for hosmer, cj Abrams, and another of their prospects in the 10-20 range
Scary when you are the voice of reason.

Offline Slateman

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slate did some coke and went full ZDK, don't even need to read the deals to know i'm all-in.

soto needs to use his infinity stones to fix hosmer once he's here

In that scenario, we probably just DFA him

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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slate did some coke and went full ZDK, don't even need to read the deals to know i'm all-in.

soto needs to use his infinity stones to fix hosmer once he's here
that's inevitable.

Offline zimm_da_kid

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These are the only Soto trade packages that remotely work:

Dodgers:
Cartaya (BA #23), Miller (BA #38), Vargas (BA #40), Pepiot (BA #98), Pages (narrow BA 1op 100 miss)

Mariners:
Kyle Lewis, Kirby (BA #12), Marte (BA #18), Brash (BA #45), Ford

Red Sox:
Mayer (BA #15), Casas (BA #19), Yorke (BA #31), Duran (BA #91), Bello

Offline zimm_da_kid

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We'll be returning shortly.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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so where were you on the Arraez deal?

Offline zimm_da_kid

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so where were you on the Arraez deal?

If that’s all it took to get him, more teams should have been involved.  I’m kind of wondering if other teams just didn’t even call yet about him because they thought there was no way he’d get traded this early in the year

Offline imref

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If that’s all it took to get him, more teams should have been involved.  I’m kind of wondering if other teams just didn’t even call yet about him because they thought there was no way he’d get traded this early in the year
the reporting I saw was that prellar made the effort. He wasn’t being shopped around.

Offline Smithian

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Marlins should have held onto him a bit longer. Weird situation.

Offline Natsinpwc

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Marlins should have held onto him a bit longer. Weird situation.
Don’t know about the prospects they received?   

Arraez is at 0.2 fWAR so far this year. 3.5 last year and 2.8 the year before. So let’s not pretend that he is like a 6 WAR per year player.

Offline Natsinpwc

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Tony Gwynn was 6.3 fWAR his first full year. 1984. Then 4.2, 6.2 and 7.4 the next three years. Arraez is not Tony Gwynn.

Offline nobleisthyname

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Tony Gwynn was 6.3 fWAR his first full year. 1984. Then 4.2, 6.2 and 7.4 the next three years. Arraez is not Tony Gwynn.

Arraez is post-30 Gwynn. Gwynn's best seasons by WAR came in his 20s since he was still a plus fielder and base runner then. Arraez has never been either of those things, just like Gwynn after he turned 30. But with the bat they are remarkably similar.

Offline Natsinpwc

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Arraez is post-30 Gwynn. Gwynn's best seasons by WAR came in his 20s since he was still a plus fielder and base runner then. Arraez has never been either of those things, just like Gwynn after he turned 30. But with the bat they are remarkably similar.
Arraez has had two good years of hitting.  Gwynn had like 20.  No guarantee Arraez will keep it up. 

Offline zimm_da_kid

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CJ Abrams and Lane Thomas 

For

Lazaro Montes, Felnin Celestin, Michael Arroyo, Cole Phillips, and Walter Ford

Offline Slateman

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Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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CJ Abrams and Lane Thomas 

For

Lazaro Montes, Felnin Celestin, Michael Arroyo, Cole Phillips, and Walter Ford
Mariners system. None of the players above A+, 2 in the complex. For 4 years of control of an all star (well, an established major leaguer with good offense). Not sure that's enough.

Offline imref

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Mariners system. None of the players above A+, 2 in the complex. For 4 years of control of an all star (well, an established major leaguer with good offense). Not sure that's enough.
For four years of control of Abrams we should expect a return better than what we got for Soto.

Offline zimm_da_kid

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Offseason Plan:

Sign Juan Soto 14 years/$616 million ($44M/year)

CJ Abrams (3.1WAR, 4 years of control) to the Mariners for George Kirby (1.6WAR, 4 years of control)

Rationale: Seattle is desparate for help on offense and is committed to trying to win with the Julio contract and their pitching staff.  Abrams and Kirby have the same amount of control left.  Mariners would still have Gilbert, Castillo, Woo, and Miller in their rotation, all of whom will have pitched over 100 innings this year with ERAs of 3.6 or less.  Nationals can slide Garcia over to short and give Tena and Baker some run at 2B until King is ready.

Herz, Susana, Morales, Wallace, Lile to the Blue Jays for Vlad jr.


CF Crews
RF Wood
LF Soto
1B Vlad
SS Garcia
3B House
DH Chapparo
2B Tena
C Ruiz   

Kirby, Gore, Irvin, Parker, Cavalli/Lord/Lara