The ZDK Trade Proposal Extravaganza Thread To End All Threads #OhYeah

[Five Banners]

What -- no Trout?

Not when the Nats are going to be setting up to be paying Ohtani cuz pitching

[imref]

Not when the Nats are going to be setting up to be paying Ohtani cuz pitching

Ohtani for suero. Do it rizzo!

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I don't think Rendon is a bad contract. He was hurt this year, but unless it is a perpetual problem, he'll be fine for 2-3 more years, leaving only one year or so of overpay

[zimm_da_kid]

I don't think Rendon is a bad contract. He was hurt this year, but unless it is a perpetual problem, he'll be fine for 2-3 more years, leaving only one year or so of overpay

The issue with rendon is the contract is backloaded.  Of the $245 million for the total contract, $191 million is still owed.  Next year he makes $36.7 million, then $38.7 million each of the four years after.  That plus the fact that ohtani is going to take probably $300 million to extend make this not ridiculously far fetched.  I think it’s a lot more grounded in reality then some of my other proposals

[Natsinpwc]

The issue with rendon is the contract is backloaded.  Of the $245 million for the total contract, $191 million is still owed.  Next year he makes $36.7 million, then $38.7 million each of the four years after.

But for luxury tax purposes don’t they just take the AAV and apply that each year? 

[zimm_da_kid]

But for luxury tax purposes don’t they just take the AAV and apply that each year? 

I believe so, but dollar cost per year is definitely a factor for teams not named the dodgers or Yankees.  Trouts already on a 400+ contract and they kind of need to keep ohtani to keep trout happy

[JCA-CrystalCity]

It's AAV for the current lux tax, but yes, those amounts are a cash flow issue.

[Natsinpwc]

It's AAV for the current lux tax, but yes, those amounts are a cash flow issue.

He probably can afford it.

https://www.forbes.com/profile/arturo-moreno/?sh=2bc64dfd1ecc

Or they could trade Trout.

[Natsinpwc]

He probably can afford it.

https://www.forbes.com/profile/arturo-moreno/?sh=2bc64dfd1ecc

Or they could trade Trout.

I would add that they have Pujols gone now and also Dexter Fowler. Which I believe is like $45 million. Justin Upton gone after 2022?  And Ohtani would be signed long term so the Rendon contract would only be an issue for a couple of years versus that.

[Slateman]

Ohtani isnt going to leave LA because of money. They will pay him whatever he wants. They'll make it all back in jersey sales, concessions, and marketing.

[Natsinpwc]

Ohtani isnt going to leave LA because of money. They will pay him whatever he wants. They'll make it all back in jersey sales, concessions, and marketing.

I believe they are building a new stadium also.

[zimm_da_kid]

I would add that they have Pujols gone now and also Dexter Fowler. Which I believe is like $45 million. Justin Upton gone after 2022?  And Ohtani would be signed long term so the Rendon contract would only be an issue for a couple of years versus that.

Problem is they also need to build a whole pitching staff around ohtani.  I bet they go hard after the gausman/desclafini tier this offseason

[Natsinpwc]

Problem is they also need to build a whole pitching staff around ohtani.  I bet they go hard after the gausman/desclafini tier this offseason

I don't follow them but do they have any young starting pitching prospects that will reach MLB soon?

[zimm_da_kid]

I don't follow them but do they have any young starting pitching prospects that will reach MLB soon?

Detente came up this year, beyond him their pitching was thin until they literally drafted 20 pitchers with 20 picks this past draft.  Given how they’ve developed pitching though, I’m skeptical how it will pan out

[zimm_da_kid]

The Rockies are idiots.  Maybe they would take Corbin if we give them $30 million?  They wouldn’t be able to sign a pitcher with his upside normally.  And did I also say they’re stupid?

[welch]

I don't follow them but do they have any young starting pitching prospects that will reach MLB soon?

The Angels do not believe in prospects.

[zimm_da_kid]

Who says no?

Soto, Bell, Corbin
FOR
Julio Rodriguez, Emerson Hancock, George Kirby, Noelvi Marte, Ty France, Kyle Lewis


Also Soto, bell, corbin
FOR
Hosmer, Myers, lamet, cronenworth, Abrams, Hassell, campusano, gore

[Five Banners]

Who says no?

Me

[imref]

FWIW, the Seattle fans are all in:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Mariners/comments/r1b2qh/would_you_trade_julio_rodriguez_and_noelvi_marte/

[Slateman]

Who says no?

Soto, Bell, Corbin
FOR
Julio Rodriguez, Emerson Hancock, George Kirby, Noelvi Marte, Ty France, Kyle Lewis


Also Soto, bell, corbin
FOR
Hosmer, Myers, lamet, cronenworth, Abrams, Hassell, campusano, gore

The Mariners probably say no

The Padres probably say no

Also, these trades do nothing for the Nats as they'd still be stuck with Strasburg

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Who says no?

Soto, Bell, Corbin
FOR
Julio Rodriguez, Emerson Hancock, George Kirby, Noelvi Marte, Ty France, Kyle Lewis


Also Soto, bell, corbin
FOR
Hosmer, Myers, lamet, cronenworth, Abrams, Hassell, campusano, gore

I tried to play with the trade simulator over at https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/ but it does not let you trade Soto.  I think it is because there's probably a lot of ridiculous pitches for him.  Nevertheless, his median trade value is 224.7, Bell is zero, and Corbin is -62.3.  So, your package is 162.4.

For the Mariners, France is 26.7, Hancock is 16.7 (RHP), Kirby(RHP) is 46.6, Lewis (OF) is 23.5, Marte (SS) 63.2, and Rodriguez (OF) 66.4. Lewis and France are in the majors.  That package is ~243, as I add in my head.  So, right away, it looks greedy.  But it is Soto.  Drop one of Rodriguez (MLB #3 prospect per CBS) or Marte (#11), and you start to get into range.  Bell is France's backfill, so maybe keep him in there.  Kirby and Hancock are their #3 and #4 prospects, with ETAs of 2022 and 2023.  Let them keep Hancock to make the deal essentially about Rodriguez and Kirby, with France and Lewis.  I think that looks like Mariners giving their #1, #3 prospects and two major leaguers for Soto, a year of Bell, and a hope Corbin can at least relieve in a big ballpark.  Then it comes down to how all in the Ms are for 2022. 

Haven't done the Padres deal, but it sounds a bit more like Hosmer Myers balance out the cash a bit better.

[Slateman]

I tried to play with the trade simulator over at https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/ but it does not let you trade Soto.  I think it is because there's probably a lot of ridiculous pitches for him.  Nevertheless, his median trade value is 224.7, Bell is zero, and Corbin is -62.3.  So, your package is 162.4.

For the Mariners, France is 26.7, Hancock is 16.7 (RHP), Kirby(RHP) is 46.6, Lewis (OF) is 23.5, Marte (SS) 63.2, and Rodriguez (OF) 66.4. Lewis and France are in the majors.  That package is ~243, as I add in my head.  So, right away, it looks greedy.  But it is Soto.  Drop one of Rodriguez (MLB #3 prospect per CBS) or Marte (#11), and you start to get into range.  Bell is France's backfill, so maybe keep him in there.  Kirby and Hancock are their #3 and #4 prospects, with ETAs of 2022 and 2023.  Let them keep Hancock to make the deal essentially about Rodriguez and Kirby, with France and Lewis.  I think that looks like Mariners giving their #1, #3 prospects and two major leaguers for Soto, a year of Bell, and a hope Corbin can at least relief in a big ballpark. 

Btv criminally underrates Bell due to "defense."

You definitely get to be greedy with Soto. I just dont think the Mariners mortgage the future for a two year window.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Btv criminally underrates Bell due to "defense."

You definitely get to be greedy with Soto. I just dont think the Mariners mortgage the future for a two year window.

I think the value of an established superstar who simply needs to stay healthy to be a legit 1st ballot HoF, maybe inner circle, is impossible to estimate.  The only limit is 3 years of control, but those are the bargain years.  I think Bell is devalued as much for 1 year of control as anything else. 

[Slateman]

I think the value of an established superstar who simply needs to stay healthy to be a legit 1st ballot HoF, maybe inner circle, is impossible to estimate.  The only limit is 3 years of control.  I think Bell is devalued as much for 1 year of control as anything else. 

Soto doesnt make them a playoff team. And losing that much future talent pushes them in to "spend now to get to the postseason" territory.

If we're trading Soto, there is no reason to attach Corbin. By the time any of your prospects are ready for prine time, Corbin's contract will be done.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

FWIW, the Seattle fans are all in:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Mariners/comments/r1b2qh/would_you_trade_julio_rodriguez_and_noelvi_marte/

they would have to add Kirby, and take Corbin too, if you buy the BTV estimator.