2023-24 Off-Season Discussion

[English Natsie]

One of those 'first glance' moments, on 'Nats News' - just for a second, I thought the Nats had promoted Eddie Longsocks....

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Elaine Chao was beloved?

she played both DOT and DOL, so she's versatile. And she's beloved by the Turtle.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

more roster speculation:

https://www.nexgennats.com/post/washington-nationals-2023-24-offseason-preview

Non-tender candidates among the arb eligible: Robles, Dom.
Guaranteed contract who's effectively retired: Stras

Rule 5 candidates who are likely to be added: Herz, Henry, Parker, Brzykczy. I wonder about Brzykczy though. As nexgen puts it, great stuff. I've been a skeptic thinking the missed season would make him too unlikely to last on an active roster, but, FG makes a great point about the injury:

It will be interesting to see if the Nationals puts Brzykcy on their 40-man this offseason even though he likely won’t be back in action until closer to the middle of 2024. His fastball has traits that lots of clubs covet, and his injury oddly makes him more stashable for opposing teams since they can put him on the 60-day IL and clear a roster spot at the start of the 2024 calendar, then try to sneak Brzykcy through the tail end of the big league season to meet Rule 5 requirements and keep him in the org long-term.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/washington-nationals-top-31-prospects-2023/

Back to next gen- says Cate, Powell, and Cluff are bubble guys. Suggest Cate might be protected over Parker.

ID's a nearly unlimited amount of roster fat that could be trimmed to meet cut-downs to get to 40 and protect minor leaguers:

Jeter Downs, Matt Cronin, Cory Abbott, Roddery Munoz, Carter Kieboom, Amos Willingham, Andres Machado, Alex Call and Jeremy De La Rosa.

An early release of Stras is unlikely.

Also discusses potential FAs to add. Hoskins is the name to watch for him, but he names a few pitchers too.

My reaction is that there is only a few bits of mystery about the minor leaguers to be protected. All the spec is about the same names:

[JCA-CrystalCity]

For fun, I'm consolidating TalkNats, Camerato, and Next Gen speculation about 40 man roster adds below. I'm not going to deal much with cuts to make room for minor leaguers because the choices are almost unlimited. Dom and Robles are the biggest non-tender decisions.

TalkNats - lock is Herz, Powell in the mix, next tier Parker, Henry and Lara.
Camerato - discusses the MLB top 30 who are not on the 40 man but need to be added or exposed: Made, Henry, Lara, Parker, Brzykcy. Missed Herz.
Nextgen - Herz a "slam dunk." Henry and Brzykcy likely, then Parker / Cate, with NextGen leaning towards Parker. Also IDs Powell and Cluff as other potential keeps, with Cluff mentioned primarily because the author thinks the front offices see something in him no one else does.

Taking a consolidated view, we can give Camerato a break for not mentioning Herz and deem him a lock.

Henry also seems likely.

I don't like Camerato's approach to focusing just on the top 30 because some like Made are too far away from the majors to be kept on a roster all year. Lara is young, but he's not made it past A+, hasn't dominated any level yet, and velo was down. I think he's a difficult stash on a roster next year so I don't think he is added.

There's decisions to be made on Parker, Powell, Brzykcy. I expect Parker to be kept because, after Herz, the organizational starter depth looks thin. he's a lefty too, and lefties get breaks. Powell is a wild thing with an injury history. I think he's not given a spot despite being pushed up to AAA. Bombing out in the fall league. I buy the case for Brzykcy based on the easy stash, so he's an add.

Nats are at 41 players between rostered guys and 60 day IL guys who must be added or released. Figure there's a need for 4-6 roster spots. I think NextGen has it about right, with 4 adds, meaning 5 cuts. 

Likelies to be removed from the 40 man would be De La Rosa, Call, probably Abbott, then go from there. Cronin probably doesn't need a spot with his injury coupled with a lack of a demonstrable recovery last year. I forget what the diagnosis was on his injury. Maybe Dom and Robles, maybe one of Alu or Downs. If Call is cut, then Robles could stick around as the starter and Young as the depth piece.

I do not think Machado is dropped. Pineda might be a luxury at this point.

[Slateman]

Do we really need a spot for Henry? I'd be willing to let someone else take him health issues. Either that, or you immediately convert him to a reliever

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I'll guess the latter is pretty likely. You may want him to go multiple innings to work on stuff, but giving up the dream of him starting might be the best way to get his stuff on the mound

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I'm not sure this was posted but it's been out a month:
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/09/offseason-outlook-washington-nationals-12.html

Thinks a non-tender on Smith makes sense, and thinks Robles and Kieboom are on the bubble. Also sees no purpose to having Stras occupy a 40 man roster slot over the offseason. Suggests some flier names for 1 year at 3rd -IKF, Senzel, Wendle, and Espinal. Also thinks we may be in on some pitching, both bullpen and starting:

It’s hard to envision the Nats spending at the top of the market. They could offer a rotation spot to a rebound candidate like Luis Severino, Frankie Montas or Alex Wood in the hope that player could serve as a midseason trade chip. If they wanted to secure some stability over multiple years without making a huge financial commitment, they could consider the likes of Michael Lorenzen or Mike Clevinger.

They’ll probably also add an arm or two to the relief corps, as Washington has the lowest bullpen strikeout rate in the league. It’s not time to play at the top of the market for Josh Hader or pursue a veteran closer in the Craig Kimbrel mold. There are a number of middle relievers who’ll be available on one or two-year deals that could add swing-and-miss to the group. Ryne Stanek, Shintaro Fujinami and Keynan Middleton are among the power arms available in free agency.

Sees this as a make or break year for Luis Garcia. In addition to 3rd base, thinks maybe another outfielder is needed. Not impressed with any of the short-term pieces not named Thomas. Garrett gets praise as a righty platoon option (we think more), but his injury. . .

[Slateman]

I dont see a reason to non-tender Robles or Kieboom, if for nothing else, you dont have replacements that can play as well. Had Wood, Crews, or House really torn it up in Double A, I could see a case for it. But you may as well play them until the end of May and not burn service time

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I dont see a reason to non-tender Robles or Kieboom, if for nothing else, you dont have replacements that can play as well. Had Wood, Crews, or House really torn it up in Double A, I could see a case for it. But you may as well play them until the end of May and not burn service time

There's two holes in the OF at the start of the year, especially if Garrett isn't available. The decision on Robles is whether they think there's much more from him than what Young can give them. As for Kieboom, unfortunately neither Carter nor Alu showed enough to say there's somebody to be confident in. I'd keep Alu before Kieboom due to years of control and position versatility.

[Slateman]

There's two holes in the OF at the start of the year, especially if Garrett isn't available. The decision on Robles is whether they think there's much more from him than what Young can give them. As for Kieboom, unfortunately neither Carter nor Alu showed enough to say there's somebody to be confident in. I'd keep Alu before Kieboom due to years of control and position versatility.

Alu, Young, Call, and Blankenhorn can all all play LF. No reason not to through May

[Elvir Ovcina]

she played both DOT and DOL, so she's versatile. And she's beloved by the Turtle.

She's the fWAR of Cabinet secretaries, except that she'd just go into a shell if anyone went to actual WAR.

[imref]

Carl Edwards Jr. elects free agency.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Carl Edwards Jr. elects free agency.

clears a roster slot

I imagine he'll shop around and both sides will be amenable to a reunion if they can agree on a number.

[imref]

Via MLBTR:
- Matt Cronin DFA'd, freeing up another 40-man spot
- Strasburg, Cavalli, Adams, Garrett, and Robles all activated from the IL

At this point the 40-man is full.

[Slateman]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/11/2023-24-top-50-free-agents-with-predictions.html?utm_source=twitter

Tyler Mahle and Frankie Montas are the ones that we actually get picked to sign

[Natsinpwc]

How about Tommy Pham. And he can run the team fantasy football league. Or better yet sign him and Joc Pederson.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Via MLBTR:
- Matt Cronin DFA'd, freeing up another 40-man spot
- Strasburg, Cavalli, Adams, Garrett, and Robles all activated from the IL

At this point the 40-man is full.

11/14 is the deadline to add minor leaguers to protect them from rule 5.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/11/2023-24-top-50-free-agents-with-predictions.html?utm_source=twitter

Tyler Mahle and Frankie Montas are the ones that we actually get picked to sign

fwiw, they have Hoskins 2 years, $36 million.

[Slateman]

fwiw, they have Hoskins 2 years, $36 million.

Unless we are the highest bidder, I dont know why he'd come here

[Senatorswin]

I'm not a big Rhys Hopkins fan. The last two years he played he had 27 and 30 home runs but only 71 and 79 RBI's on a team like the Phils where there should be many opportunities. In big situations it never bothered me when he came to the plate.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Unless we are the highest bidder, I dont know why he'd come here

1 year, $22 million, with a player option at $16 million, and two team options at $22 million. Who says no?

[Slateman]

1 year, $22 million, with a player option at $16 million, and two team options at $22 million. Who says no?

Probably the Lerners

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Probably the Lerners

yes. Not that it wouldn't make sense for a team in the Nats position, but they probably are not going to spend at this point, even for positions of obvious need coming out a rebuild in light of their system strengths and weaknesses. No Pudge signings, let alone Werth signings, until they see how many of the AA guys can help second half of this year and in 2025.

[Natsinpwc]

yes. Not that it wouldn't make sense for a team in the Nats position, but they probably are not going to spend at this point, even for positions of obvious need coming out a rebuild in light of their system strengths and weaknesses. No Pudge signings, let alone Werth signings, until they see how many of the AA guys can help second half of this year and in 2025.

If not in contention they can also trade anyone they sign.  They seem to care more about saving $ then continuing to stick the farm system. 

[Slateman]

If not in contention they can also trade anyone they sign.  They seem to care more about saving $ then continuing to stick the farm system. 

If money werent the issue, I would agree. But money is and thats a 22 million dollar gamble that I dont think the Lerners will accept. Youd have to be convinced that Hoskins' power is back.