2023-24 Off-Season Discussion

[imref]

De Jon Watson out as Director of Player Development after 2 seasons.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2023/10/02/de-jon-watson-nationals-player-development/

[PowerBoater69]

Sign Trevor Bauer as the #1 starter and we're Wild Card bound.

[Slateman]

Has it been reported if all these front office positions that were vacated will be backfilled? Especially the scouts?

[imref]

Has it been reported if all these front office positions that were vacated will be backfilled? Especially the scouts?

We're signing a 15 year old from the DR in January, so that should backfill at least one position.

[imref]

Victor Arano declares for free agency

[imref]

Talknats says Haas signed for slightly more than Kline was making

[Natsinpwc]

Don’t see any discussion of those names in this thread. Who are they? 

[imref]

Don’t see any discussion of those names in this thread. Who are they? 

https://www.masnsports.com/blog/source-nats-hiring-d-backs-haas-as-new-scouting-director

[Natsinpwc]

Thank you. So another Rizzo AZ drinking buddy. 

Seriously he seems to have a decent resume.

[Slateman]

Thank you. So another Rizzo AZ drinking buddy. 

Seriously he seems to have a decent resume.

Eh, I know hes from the Dbacks, but he never worked for or with Rizzo in Arizona.

Cautiously optimistic with this hire. I have no doubt Rizzo used his contacts in Arizona to vet him, but Haas comes from places Rizzo didnt' work, and has been part of organizations that have drafted successfully. Dbacks seem to have found some success in their draft, with Corbin Carroll in 2019, Bryce Jarvis in 2020 already being in the majors, Jordan Lawler getting a cup of coffee this year. Also, Drey Jameson, Domnic Fletcher, Tommy Fletcher, Dominc Calzone (traded for Sewald), and Brandon Pfaadt have all contributed to this season's success.

I mean, if you compare that with how we drafted in 2019 and 2020 (Rutledge, Alu, & Cavalli), he's done very well. The criticism/question mark of this move is that he's never run a scouting department. That seems fine. For one, Rizzo has and can provide guidance. But more importantly, we just cut a bunch of scouts and probably won't be allowed to hire more, so it'll be a small group for him to learn to lead.

See, I can be positive

[JCA-CrystalCity]

this guy got hsi start during the Theo reign at the Red Sox. That group has been a pretty extensive chain, with Hoyer and Cherington and a bunch of others.

[imref]

Blankenhorn elects free agency

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Blankenhorn elects free agency

hope he doesn't get a better offer than what the Nats end up making him. I liked him a bit and there's always room for a lefty bat corner OF with this lineup. He didn't get much to drop in (.167 BABIP) but his AAA numbers the past 3 years are pretty good.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

MLBTR is out with its projected arbitration salaries.  Historically, the projections are very accurate. Here's what they have for the 8 Nats who are arb eligible:

    Dominic Smith (5.081): $4.3MM
    Victor Robles (5.033): $2.7MM
    Tanner Rainey (4.127): $1.5MM
    Michael Chavis (4.089): $1.2MM
    Hunter Harvey (4.047): $2.2MM
    Lane Thomas (4.014): $7MM
    Kyle Finnegan (4.000): $5.1MM
    Luis Garcia (2.142): $2.4MM

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/10/projected-arbitration-salaries-for-2024.html

Interesting that Robles's arb number is lower than his option. Vargas had been arb eligible but was re-signed. Arano was also arb eligible but he elected free agency (I assume he was waived and declined assignment). Also, Kieboom is arb eligible but not listed in the MLBTR numbers.

Thomas goes from $2.2 million to $7MM, Dom roughly doubles from $2 million, and Finnegan jumps a bit more than 2x from $2.325 million. Percentage-wise, Harvey gets a bigger bump from $870K to $2.2 million, but Finny shows closers get paid.

These 8 total between $26-27 million. Add in $68 million for Corbin and Stras, and another $13+ for Ruiz and Williams, and that $108 million in commitments and arb before the minimum wage major leaguers and 40 man players in the minors.

[Slateman]

How does Dom be one of the worst first basemen in MLB and double his salary?

[JCA-CrystalCity]

if I counted right, then after Arano and Blankenhorn declined outright assignments to Rochester, the Nats have 45 guys on their 40 man roster, counting 6 guys on the 60 day IL. One of the guys on the 60 day IL is Edwards, who is out of contract, and another is Stras. Figure Riley Adams, Garrett, and Cavalli need space, and then there's Robles.

https://www.mlb.com/nationals/roster/40-man

[nobleisthyname]

Are the Nats gonna pay Chavis $1.2M to be a pinch runner again?

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Are the Nats gonna pay Chavis $1.2M to be a pinch runner again?

seems about $200K too high, especially if they think Alu can do his job. Dom is the other where they might let him walk rather than pay. Think about it this way: For the price of Dom and Robles, they could free up $7 million to spend on a short term bounceback hitter like Garrett Cooper or use that as a starting point for maybe a corner OF.

[imref]

Jesse Dougherty says he is done covering the Nats.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Jesse Dougherty says he is done covering the Nats.

the idea that they would double cover with both him and Andrew Golden didn't seem likely to last. They still have Svrluga and Janes to add on.  What's he say he's going to be doing?

[JCA-CrystalCity]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/zack-wheelers-misfortune/

While this Ben Clemens article focuses on the context for the decision to pitch Wheeler a 3rd time through the order after 5 great innings and a 6th where he mostly avoided harm, what's interesting from a Nats perspective is the discussion of the 3rd time penalty. I think this supports the idea that the Nats could benefit from openers for some of their weaker pitchers like Adon if the goal is to have these starters pitch more than 2 times through the order.  You just have to be extremely careful of throwing even the best pitchers like a Wheeler or a Smoltz a 3rd time against the best hitters. IF you really want a bulk inning guy to face 23-25 hitters, you are much better off facing the #5-#8 hitters than the #1-4 the 3rd time.

[imref]

Talknats:

Per a source with another team, the Nats are close to hiring  scout Reed Dunn for the amateur side under Danny Haas and Brad Ciolek. Dunn has been an east coast crosschecker for the Braves. He was with the Nats from 2007-2014.

[imref]

Rutherford, Chavis, and Hobie Harris all DFA’d and cleared waivers. Chavis and Rutherford have elected free agency.  Harris is a minor league FA after the World Series.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

All of that makes a ton of sense. I could see Chavis and the Nats talking, but Rutherford should go to Korea or Japan at this point in his career.

Assuming there's an official Stras retirement, does that clear enough space for the 60 day IL guys to be restored to the roster? Cavalli, Adams, Garrett, Robles if they are retaining him, needed space. Edwards is out of contract, then there's Stras.

After that, it'll be making space for guys who must be added or exposed to the Rule 5. I'd think Herz is a no brainer, and there's one or two other pitchers, I think. Baker does not need to be added yet. I think they expose Made because he's far enough away from the majors that no one will keep him on the bench for a season. Parker I think will be added, as will Henry (unless his injury is worse than is let on). Powell, Ribalta, others I think get exposed.

[nobleisthyname]

I would hope Pineda stays protected.