Author Topic: Who do you like in the post season?  (Read 9789 times)

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Online Natsinpwc

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Re: Who do you like in the post season?
« Reply #225: October 13, 2023, 10:45:03 AM »
The teams with a bye get a major advantage with being able to go with their top starters and have them rested. I think that outweighs any disadvantage of the hitters going cold.  If your starters don’t do the job just stop the whining.

Over two years with the current format teams with a bye have won 3 of 8 series. Not good but still a small sample.

Offline nobleisthyname

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Re: Who do you like in the post season?
« Reply #226: October 13, 2023, 10:54:01 AM »
Anytime you have a playoff of this many rounds, 162 games gets thrown out the window other than a couple of small advantages that might not be advantages in the case of some matchups. It’s just the way it is

I'm a strong believer that the playoffs are a crapshoot. There's too much variance in such small sample sizes between relatively equally talented teams (by definition all teams in the playoffs are in the top third of teams for that season).

The Nationals played basically.500 ball against the Phillies this season. No one cares about that despite the Phillies being significantly better than the Nats. Yet pit them against the Braves and all of a sudden it's a shock the Braves lost a five game series? It's never made sense to me.

It seems most people assume variance decreases in the playoffs for some reason. In my mind it's the other way around, variance increases because 1) the sample size is an order of magnitude smaller and 2) there is greatly increased parity between all the teams.

Offline nfotiu

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Re: Who do you like in the post season?
« Reply #227: October 13, 2023, 12:07:59 PM »
The teams with a bye get a major advantage with being able to go with their top starters and have them rested. I think that outweighs any disadvantage of the hitters going cold.  If your starters don’t do the job just stop the whining.

Over two years with the current format teams with a bye have won 3 of 8 series. Not good but still a small sample.

Another way to look at it is 5/16 of the non-bye teams made it to the LCS.   So, still an advantage to get a bye, and will probably prove more of an advantage over time.

I do think there is something to these teams coming in with lots of momentum and already in playoff mode, especially in the first couple games.   Winning in 2 definitely is a a best case scenario too.  If it goes 3, then pitching is going to be a lot more taxed.

Online Slateman

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Re: Who do you like in the post season?
« Reply #228: October 13, 2023, 12:29:26 PM »
:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :hysterical:
How does it feel to be wrong?  I suppose you are used to it.
Reverse jinx worked.

Online Natsinpwc

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Offline aspenbubba

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Re: Who do you like in the post season?
« Reply #230: October 13, 2023, 01:16:43 PM »
I was not impressed with the Braves last series against the Nats. The Nats were one pitch away ( thanks Weems) from sweeping the Braves in Atlanta. I don't know what to attribute it to but they did not look like a 100 win team.

Mixed feelings about the Phillies as their 1-3 hitters are former Nats and I'm starting to call CBP "Nationals Park North ". I'm not familiar with the D-Backs so I think I will stay neutral. If Max is able to pitch for Texas I will certainly root for him.

Offline nfotiu

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Re: Who do you like in the post season?
« Reply #231: October 13, 2023, 02:20:48 PM »
One other aspect of the disadvantages of being a seed with a bye, is they often had their position locked up a month ago, and haven't played any real meaningful games in a long while.   Teams that claw their way into a wild card until the end, and then stay hot through the wild card series come in like a buzzsaw.   There are other things at play too like the Dodgers losing pretty much all their pitchers and Kershaw a shell of himself.   Tampa lost their best player and a lot of pitchers.   It's not really a big surprise those teams lost.

Online Natsinpwc

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Re: Who do you like in the post season?
« Reply #232: October 13, 2023, 07:18:39 PM »
Max says he is ready.

Online Slateman

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Re: Who do you like in the post season?
« Reply #233: October 13, 2023, 07:52:33 PM »
For what? To start? To give three innings?

Online Natsinpwc

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Re: Who do you like in the post season?
« Reply #234: October 13, 2023, 08:32:54 PM »
For what? To start? To give three innings?
Shoot him an email.

Offline OfftheBat

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Re: Who do you like in the post season?
« Reply #235: October 14, 2023, 11:06:57 AM »
I remember times when the writer for the Montreal Gazette who followed the situation closest would think it was almost a done deal a new stadium would be built but then it would fall through because a politician would pull his support. Then they talked about contraction instead of relocation.

I wonder if those same politicians that didn't support a new stadium wished they had.


Good question, I think they do regret it, but they'll never admit it publicly.

Online Slateman

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Re: Who do you like in the post season?
« Reply #236: October 14, 2023, 02:03:59 PM »
Why the heck isn't there a game today!?

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Who do you like in the post season?
« Reply #237: October 14, 2023, 05:32:06 PM »
Why the heck isn't there a game today!?
you gonna play a baseball game in Texas on college football day?

Online Slateman

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Re: Who do you like in the post season?
« Reply #238: October 14, 2023, 09:02:03 PM »
you gonna play a baseball game in Texas on college football day?
Yes. Just terrible planning to not have a game on Friday or Saturday night, and not start until after 8 on the east coast on Sunday

Offline Five Banners

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Re: Who do you like in the post season?
« Reply #239: October 14, 2023, 09:43:08 PM »
Yes. Just terrible planning to not have a game on Friday or Saturday night, and not start until after 8 on the east coast on Sunday

Reminds me of when they didn’t do a handshake deal with the NBA so that Game 1 of the 2019 World Series didn’t conflict with the NBA season opener

Offline nobleisthyname

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Re: Who do you like in the post season?
« Reply #240: October 15, 2023, 07:26:25 AM »
With such a long break between the DS and the CS I guess that means we can expect every offense to be anemic, at least in the first game, right? I have to wonder what the excuse will be if that's not the case.

Online Natsinpwc

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Re: Who do you like in the post season?
« Reply #241: October 15, 2023, 10:25:07 AM »
With such a long break between the DS and the CS I guess that means we can expect every offense to be anemic, at least in the first game, right? I have to wonder what the excuse will be if that's not the case.
All the teams can get their one and two starters set up.  That's probably the biggest factor.  I mean Atlanta scored as little in games 3 and 4 as they did on games 1 and 2.  Weren't they warmed up by then?  I think cold weather makes it difficult but was  nice last week.  Will be cold for NLCS games 1 and 2. 

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Who do you like in the post season?
« Reply #242: October 15, 2023, 11:31:52 AM »
Yes. Just terrible planning to not have a game on Friday or Saturday night, and not start until after 8 on the east coast on Sunday
If you are going to go with a 3 game wild card series (I'm not sold that makes sense), then there has to be more compression of the rest of the schedule. Start the Division series the day after game 3 (Friday), play all 4 game 2s on Saturday, and schedule four game 3, potentially decisive games, on Indigenous People's / Columbus Day.  There's a rain risk, but better to push off the start of the series than to waste momentum and time. Surrender Sunday to the NFL, if you must, or use it in case there's a delay due to a rainout in the WC and 1st 2 games of the Division series.

Cutting off the time between the WC and the Division series shouldn't be a radical change. playing 5 games in 5 days (the max) is typical in season. If anything, it may force the WC winner to start the 4th and 5th starters in the LCS, which is a good thing for the teams with a bye. One you push all the DS to to game 3s on Monday, you can probably build in a bit of a stagger for potential games 4 and 5, but wrap that by Thursday and start playing one LCS on Friday.

Online Natsinpwc

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Re: Who do you like in the post season?
« Reply #243: October 15, 2023, 09:39:01 PM »
That was crushed.


Online Slateman

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Re: Who do you like in the post season?
« Reply #244: October 15, 2023, 09:59:09 PM »
If you are going to go with a 3 game wild card series (I'm not sold that makes sense), then there has to be more compression of the rest of the schedule. Start the Division series the day after game 3 (Friday), play all 4 game 2s on Saturday, and schedule four game 3, potentially decisive games, on Indigenous People's / Columbus Day.  There's a rain risk, but better to push off the start of the series than to waste momentum and time. Surrender Sunday to the NFL, if you must, or use it in case there's a delay due to a rainout in the WC and 1st 2 games of the Division series.

Cutting off the time between the WC and the Division series shouldn't be a radical change. playing 5 games in 5 days (the max) is typical in season. If anything, it may force the WC winner to start the 4th and 5th starters in the LCS, which is a good thing for the teams with a bye. One you push all the DS to to game 3s on Monday, you can probably build in a bit of a stagger for potential games 4 and 5, but wrap that by Thursday and start playing one LCS on Friday.
I agree. The advantage to having the bye is that you should only be facing the non-bye team's 1 and 2 once

Online Natsinpwc

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Re: Who do you like in the post season?
« Reply #245: October 15, 2023, 10:04:02 PM »
Jordan Montgomery is making himself some money tonight.

Online Natsinpwc

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Re: Who do you like in the post season?
« Reply #246: October 15, 2023, 10:42:33 PM »
Umpires helping Houston.

Online Natsinpwc

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Re: Who do you like in the post season?
« Reply #247: October 15, 2023, 10:48:14 PM »
Altuve should be out.

Online Natsinpwc

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Re: Who do you like in the post season?
« Reply #248: October 15, 2023, 10:49:05 PM »
YES.

Online Natsinpwc

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Re: Who do you like in the post season?
« Reply #249: October 16, 2023, 09:12:08 AM »
World Series starts tomorrow on a Friday. So no Sunday games at all unless rain outs. Seventh game would be the following Saturday.

Tv ratings for the wild card and division series were generally down other than for the Phillies and Braves series. I think it’s the New York factor. And now no LA. No Chicago or Boston either.