Author Topic: Who do you like in the post season?  (Read 11354 times)

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Offline imref

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Re: Who do you like in the post season?
« Reply #100: October 07, 2023, 09:36:43 PM »
A bit of a rough start for Clayton.


Offline Slateman

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Re: Who do you like in the post season?
« Reply #102: October 07, 2023, 09:48:49 PM »
Thomson pushed all the right buttons even when he didn’t push the right buttons.

Nice to see the Braves strategy of having intrasquad practice games helped their hitting. 
Strahm felt like a lot of luck. Braves crush lefties, particularly Albies. They stole one tonight and are in a great position to take the series.

Offline imref

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Re: Who do you like in the post season?
« Reply #103: October 07, 2023, 10:04:20 PM »
Just saw that this was kershaw’s shortest outing in his career. Hopefully that’s not how he goes out.

Online Natsinpwc

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Re: Who do you like in the post season?
« Reply #104: October 07, 2023, 10:09:46 PM »
Strahm felt like a lot of luck. Braves crush lefties, particularly Albies. They stole one tonight and are in a great position to take the series.
Stratham has done fine out of the pen. Surprised they didn’t go with Alvarado for longer but suppose they are saving him.

Offline Dave in Fairfax

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Re: Who do you like in the post season?
« Reply #105: October 07, 2023, 10:11:00 PM »
It does seem odd that Kershaw's postseason ERA is 2 runs higher than his career regular season ERA, especially since it's not a small sample size - 194 innings.

Offline dracnal

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Re: Who do you like in the post season?
« Reply #106: October 08, 2023, 12:29:44 AM »
It does seem odd that Kershaw's postseason ERA is 2 runs higher than his career regular season ERA, especially since it's not a small sample size - 194 innings.

It would be interesting to see the stats on the #1 pitcher for each team full season stats vs #1 pitcher for each team vs the division winners and first wildcard for the season. No idea what the outcome would be but I'd have to think there's definitely an uptick in ERA in that latter category.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Who do you like in the post season?
« Reply #107: October 08, 2023, 12:53:37 AM »
Then there is Eovaldi, with his 4.10 regular season ERA, but a 2.90 in 50 postseason innings

Offline nfotiu

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Re: Who do you like in the post season?
« Reply #108: October 08, 2023, 08:54:24 AM »
I'm confused how Kershaw was able to pitch as well this regular season.    It doesn't sound like his FB is over 90 these days.   Maybe his off speed stuff wasn't as sharp last night?   It's hard to see how someone can keep their ERA below  with an 89 mph fast ball in this era, no matter how crafty they are.

Offline OfftheBat

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Re: Who do you like in the post season?
« Reply #109: October 08, 2023, 11:48:13 AM »
we did a few player chats during the site's most active period. Antonelli did one in 2011 when I think he had been signed with a spring invite. Now with X and Facebook there are other common ways for players to interact with fans.

hope the link to the archives works.

https://www.wnff.net/index.php?topic=21366.0


Awesome! Yep, the link works, thank you.

Offline Dave in Fairfax

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Re: Who do you like in the post season?
« Reply #110: October 08, 2023, 12:19:02 PM »
Then there is Eovaldi, with his 4.10 regular season ERA, but a 2.90 in 50 postseason innings
In a somewhat unscientific survey, I went looking for other outliers over the past few decades. Outliers are an ERA differential of more than one run between career regular and postseason ERAs, and discounting small sample sizes (fewer than 50 postseason innings pitched).

The Good:

Stephen Strasburg: 3.24 career ERA, 1.46 postseason ERA in 55 1/3 innings (1.78)

Colby Lewis: 4.70 career ERA, 3.11 postseason ERA in 55 innings (1.59)

Matt Cain: 3.68 career ERA, 2.10 postseason ERA in 51 1/3 innings (1.58)

Orlando Hernández: 4.13 career ERA, 2.55 postseason ERA in 106 innings (1.58)

Madison Bumgarner: 3.47 career ERA, 2.11 postseason ERA in 102 1/3 innings (1.36)

Tim Lincecum: 3.74 career ERA, 2.40 postseason ERA in 56 1/3 innings (1.34)

Curt Schilling: 3.46 career ERA, 2.23 in 133 1/3 innings (1.23)

Barry Zito: 4.04 career ERA, 2.83 postseason ERA in 60 1/3 innings (1.21)

Jon Lester: 3.66 career ERA, 2.51 postseason ERA in 154 innings (1.15)

Aníbal Sánchez: 4.06 career ERA, 2.93 postseason ERA in 61 1/3 innings (1.13)


The Bad:

David Price: 3.32 career ERA, 4.62 postseason ERA in 99 1/3 innings (1.30)

Max Fried: 3.03 career ERA, 4.43 postseason ERA in 61 innings (1.40)

James Shields: 4.01 career ERA, 5.46 postseason ERA in 59 1/3 innings (1.45)

C.J. Wilson: 3.74 career ERA, 5.26 postseason ERA in 53 innings (1.52)

Lance Lynn: 3.74 career ERA, 5.28 postseason ERA in 58 innings (1.54)

Clayton Kershaw: 2.48 career ERA, 4.49 postseason ERA in 194 1/3 innings (2.01)

Tim Wakefield: 4.41 career ERA, 6.75 postseason ERA in 72 innings (2.34)

If you drop the threshold to 40 innings, you could also add these guys to the "bad" list.
 - Johnny Cueto: 3.50 career ERA, 4.54 postseason ERA in 41 2/3 innings (1.04)
 - Scott Kazmir: 4.02 career ERA, 5.18 postseason ERA in 41 2/3 innings (1.16)
 - Luis Severino: 3.79 career ERA, 5.15 postseason ERA in 43 2/3 innings (1.36)
 - Tyler Glasnow: 3.89 career ERA, 5.72 postseason ERA in 45 2/3 innings (1.83)
 - A.J. Burnett: 3.99 career ERA, 6.37 postseason ERA in 41 innings (2.38)


Online Natsinpwc

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Re: Who do you like in the post season?
« Reply #111: October 08, 2023, 02:23:25 PM »
Very interesting research Dave.

Offline nfotiu

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Re: Who do you like in the post season?
« Reply #112: October 08, 2023, 03:05:04 PM »
In a somewhat unscientific survey, I went looking for other outliers over the past few decades. Outliers are an ERA differential of more than one run between career regular and postseason ERAs, and discounting small sample sizes (fewer than 50 postseason innings pitched).

The Good:

Stephen Strasburg: 3.24 career ERA, 1.46 postseason ERA in 55 1/3 innings (1.78)

Colby Lewis: 4.70 career ERA, 3.11 postseason ERA in 55 innings (1.59)

Matt Cain: 3.68 career ERA, 2.10 postseason ERA in 51 1/3 innings (1.58)

Orlando Hernández: 4.13 career ERA, 2.55 postseason ERA in 106 innings (1.58)

Madison Bumgarner: 3.47 career ERA, 2.11 postseason ERA in 102 1/3 innings (1.36)

Tim Lincecum: 3.74 career ERA, 2.40 postseason ERA in 56 1/3 innings (1.34)

Curt Schilling: 3.46 career ERA, 2.23 in 133 1/3 innings (1.23)

Barry Zito: 4.04 career ERA, 2.83 postseason ERA in 60 1/3 innings (1.21)

Jon Lester: 3.66 career ERA, 2.51 postseason ERA in 154 innings (1.15)

Aníbal Sánchez: 4.06 career ERA, 2.93 postseason ERA in 61 1/3 innings (1.13)


The Bad:

David Price: 3.32 career ERA, 4.62 postseason ERA in 99 1/3 innings (1.30)

Max Fried: 3.03 career ERA, 4.43 postseason ERA in 61 innings (1.40)

James Shields: 4.01 career ERA, 5.46 postseason ERA in 59 1/3 innings (1.45)

C.J. Wilson: 3.74 career ERA, 5.26 postseason ERA in 53 innings (1.52)

Lance Lynn: 3.74 career ERA, 5.28 postseason ERA in 58 innings (1.54)

Clayton Kershaw: 2.48 career ERA, 4.49 postseason ERA in 194 1/3 innings (2.01)

Tim Wakefield: 4.41 career ERA, 6.75 postseason ERA in 72 innings (2.34)

If you drop the threshold to 40 innings, you could also add these guys to the "bad" list.
 - Johnny Cueto: 3.50 career ERA, 4.54 postseason ERA in 41 2/3 innings (1.04)
 - Scott Kazmir: 4.02 career ERA, 5.18 postseason ERA in 41 2/3 innings (1.16)
 - Luis Severino: 3.79 career ERA, 5.15 postseason ERA in 43 2/3 innings (1.36)
 - Tyler Glasnow: 3.89 career ERA, 5.72 postseason ERA in 45 2/3 innings (1.83)
 - A.J. Burnett: 3.99 career ERA, 6.37 postseason ERA in 41 innings (2.38)



I wonder how much of that is just chance.   Cliff Lee was otherworldly his first 8 playoff starts, and then followed that up with 3 straight stinkers. 


Offline Slateman

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Re: Who do you like in the post season?
« Reply #113: October 08, 2023, 04:36:37 PM »
Jordan Montgomery reminds me of Gio Gonzalez

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Who do you like in the post season?
« Reply #114: October 08, 2023, 05:21:15 PM »
Wakefield was hurt I think mostly by Game 3 of the 2005 ALCS. He gave up his Game 4 start to come in in relief in the NYY's 19 run blow out. Of course, a lot of that was off him.

As for Stras, interesting that he not only had the biggest improvement, it looks like he had the lowest regular season ERA out of the guys on your list.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Who do you like in the post season?
« Reply #115: October 08, 2023, 05:31:34 PM »
That shout of joy you just heard in Bethesda was Welch in New York.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Who do you like in the post season?
« Reply #116: October 08, 2023, 05:32:25 PM »
Jordan Montgomery reminds me of Gio Gonzalez
would you sign him to an equivalent contract?

Offline Slateman

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Re: Who do you like in the post season?
« Reply #117: October 08, 2023, 05:33:40 PM »
would you sign him to an equivalent contract?
Nope. He nibbles. It will only get worse as he loses velo/spin

Offline Slateman

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Re: Who do you like in the post season?
« Reply #118: October 08, 2023, 05:34:03 PM »
Suck it blOhs

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Who do you like in the post season?
« Reply #119: October 08, 2023, 06:01:21 PM »
Jordan Montgomery reminds me of Gio Gonzalez
I can see why.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Who do you like in the post season?
« Reply #120: October 08, 2023, 06:48:49 PM »
Holy crap, this game has been dragging

Online Natsinpwc

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Re: Who do you like in the post season?
« Reply #121: October 08, 2023, 11:15:43 PM »
Nice win for the Twinkies.

Offline Senatorswin

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Re: Who do you like in the post season?
« Reply #122: October 08, 2023, 11:58:58 PM »
Phillies going to beat the Braves again in this series. Say it ain't so Joe.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Who do you like in the post season?
« Reply #123: October 09, 2023, 09:44:25 AM »
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/if-you-can-read-this-you-probably-walked-and-scored-in-the-rangers-game-2-win/

I just love Michael Baumann's writing.

Quote
I’m sure you all know the aphorism: If you go about your day and meet one jerk, he’s the jerk. If you go about your day and everyone you meet is a jerk, that probably means you’re the jerk. Evan Carter’s first-inning walk came on a 3–2 call that looked like it caught the plate, which made the crowd get a little peeved when a series of walks followed in the ensuing innings. But if you walk two batters instead of one, maybe that’s the umpire’s fault. Walk 10 batters in six innings, well… you get the idea.
...

But most of all, the Rangers’ offensive explosion was a masterpiece of keeping the line moving, putting the ball in play, and not giving away outs. That’s what offense is all about in baseball: Generating baserunners while not spending outs, or at least, without spending them senselessly. This is not some newfangled invention of statistics; this is how Leo Durocher built the 1947 Brooklyn Dodgers. Throughout history, if you get one baserunner for every two outs, you’re in business.
...
We say a team doesn’t know when it’s beat as an equivalent to having a never-say-die attitude, to identify a team that pulls unlikely results against unfavorable odds. The truth on Sunday for the Orioles was more literal: They were beat, in every way that mattered, two and a half innings into a three-hour and 45-minute rite of ritual suffering. (Turns out you can have an old-fashioned marathon playoff game even with the pitch clock.) But they either seemed not to realize or refused to internalize the severity of their situation, and they kept plugging away until the scoreline was more palatable, only to run out of outs. Jorge Mateo, left on the bench to contemplate his .267 regular-season OBP in Game 1, went 4-for-4 with two doubles and ran the bases like he was being chased by wolves, well into the later innings.

It's the way he can slip in unusual phrasing, statistical and non-statistical observations, and history while also giving insights in a game story or piece on a player.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Who do you like in the post season?
« Reply #124: October 09, 2023, 11:01:36 AM »
Quote
I’m sure you all know the aphorism: If you go about your day and meet one jerk, he’s the jerk. If you go about your day and everyone you meet is a jerk, that probably means you’re the jerk.

Im sorry but I cannot, and will not, abide by the slander of Raylan Givens

https://youtu.be/cLJrQj-ClMk?si=PB0kORN69Y6UYBNC