Carter Kieboom: finally the year?

[UMDNats]

Vargas is fine as a backup utility guy but hollllly crap the idea of penciling him in next year in the starting lineup is terrible.

[aspenbubba]

Vargas is not starting. He is a back up for 3B SS 2B. He wasn’t re-signed for any other purpose period. Look for Rizzo to sign a 3B and hopefully a 1B unless they go with Joey on 1B Ruiz as DH and hopefully Adams is healthy enough to catch 110 games.

The biggest questions in the off season are Garrett’s health and Adams and what roles they will play if any.

[Slateman]

Vargas is not starting. He is a back up for 3B SS 2B. He wasn’t re-signed for any other purpose period. Look for Rizzo to sign a 3B and hopefully a 1B unless they go with Joey on 1B Ruiz as DH and hopefully Adams is healthy enough to catch 110 games.

The biggest questions in the off season are Garrett’s health and Adams and what roles they will play if any.

You say that, bur Vargas started 67 games this year.

[blue911]

Vargas reminds me of Rafael Santana.

[aspenbubba]

You say that, bur Vargas started 67 games this year.

Yes and weren't most after Candy was traded?

[Slateman]

Yes and weren't most after Candy was traded?

Yes but we still had multiple options of non-32 year old, replacement level players who should have played there.

The only reason they got Candelario was to flip him.

[aspenbubba]

Yes but we still had multiple options of non-32 year old, replacement level players who should have played there.

The only reason they got Candelario was to flip him.

The Kiebust train has come and gone. He has the look of a defeated and vanquished foe. 2024 is a wholly different circumstance than 2023 and we are not in the mode of tryouts but have a clearly set goal in mind through out the FO , players and fans.

[Slateman]

The Kiebust train has come and gone. He has the look of a defeated and vanquished foe. 2024 is a wholly different circumstance than 2023 and we are not in the mode of tryouts but have a clearly set goal in mind through out the FO , players and fans.

Uh .... what's different? We aren't spending. We are stilling using the MLB squad as a developmental tool. Garcia, Robles, Garrett, Gore, Gray, Irvin, Abrams, Cavalli, Ruiz ... all will be in tryout/development mode.

Any fan who is expecting anything different is being naive. Until we have ownership willing to drop 30 million AAV on a free agent, this team isn't competing for crap.

[GburgNatsFan]

Reality. Real estate empires are built of (almost) permanent steel, concrete and glass. Bare minimum maintenance until it's sold.

Uh .... what's different? We aren't spending. We are stilling using the MLB squad as a developmental tool. Garcia, Robles, Garrett, Gore, Gray, Irvin, Abrams, Cavalli, Ruiz ... all will be in tryout/development mode.

Any fan who is expecting anything different is being naive. Until we have ownership willing to drop 30 million AAV on a free agent, this team isn't competing for crap.

[UMDNats]

Uh .... what's different? We aren't spending. We are stilling using the MLB squad as a developmental tool. Garcia, Robles, Garrett, Gore, Gray, Irvin, Abrams, Cavalli, Ruiz ... all will be in tryout/development mode.

Any fan who is expecting anything different is being naive. Until we have ownership willing to drop 30 million AAV on a free agent, this team isn't competing for crap.

i mean we just need to go from 70 > 85ish next year to make the playoffs. don't need a 30 mill AAV player to do that imo

[Slateman]

i mean we just need to go from 70 > 85ish next year to make the playoffs. don't need a 30 mill AAV player to do that imo

Uh ... that's a lot. Like, where are those players coming from? Are we assuming that Gore is going to go from a 4.42 ERA to sub 3.50, and pitch 180 innings? That Gray is going to continue to outperform his fastball and peripherals? That Williams and Corbin aren't going to suck to a 5+ ERA? And where is the offense coming from? Just magically going to get more out of Ruiz, Abrams, Garcia, and ... ?

Without a significant influx of talent, that's not happening next year. And the talent we need is the top of the rotation/middle of the order kind that will cost you 25-35 million a year to get.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Even if that player performs worse than what Vargas would perform, its still more valuable to play that player, simply to evaluate that player and prepare for the future. Which is still the goal of the 2024 season.  There is no reason to give Vargas any substantial playing time. He is not a factor in the Nationals rebuild. He is only getting this contract because he is cheap and he has a positive attitude. 

If he's healthy, start Kieboom next season. If not, start Alu. Garcia starts at second. Give them at least until mid-June to see whats going on, as well as see how House/Morales/Lipscomb/Baker do in the minors. Make a plan from there, but in all honesty, that should probably be your starting infield until you call someone up. If they hit, excellent. If not, Rizzo made sure and can comfortably move on without rushing anyone in the minors.

I don't buy much of either yours or Gata's view of how Vargas plays (I agree he's a weak shortstop defensively), but i agree he should not be starting even over a weaker internal option like Alu or Kieboom. It's tough medicine because it means a weaker team in the field, but we are still trying to find out whether we can fill positions internally. Even if Kieboom has been consistently unimpressive and Alu had a bad enough debut to make him questionable as a regular, they play (or, in Kieboom's case, perhaps get released due to lack of options) until Lipscomb / Morales / House takes over 2nd half of the year.

Not to turn this into too much of a Vargas discussion, but he hits the ball hard enough to still have a bit of upside, has great contact skills, and is not a defensive downgrade vs the alternatives at 2nd and 3rd. His average EV is something like 44th percentile (middle of the pack) and had the lowest K% of all hitters with 250 PAs not named Arraez. His launch angle is poor, but if he just elevates a bit more, and frankly, he could have a late breakout. I wouldn't count on it, he's old, but he's a fine backup, and if we want to tighten the defense for a GB pitcher, he can play either 2nd or 3rd occasionally. (BTW - tied for 8th in DRS, 13th in UZR among 3rd basemen with 300 innings).

[Slateman]

I don't buy much of either yours or Gata's view of how Vargas plays (I agree he's a weak shortstop defensively), but i agree he should not be starting even over a weaker internal option like Alu or Kieboom. It's tough medicine because it means a weaker team in the field, but we are still trying to find out whether we can fill positions internally. Even if Kieboom has been consistently unimpressive and Alu had a bad enough debut to make him questionable as a regular, they play (or, in Kieboom's case, perhaps get released due to lack of options) until Lipscomb / Morales / House takes over 2nd half of the year.

Not to turn this into too much of a Vargas discussion, but he hits the ball hard enough to still have a bit of upside, has great contact skills, and is not a defensive downgrade vs the alternatives at 2nd and 3rd. His average EV is something like 44th percentile (middle of the pack) and had the lowest K% of all hitters with 250 PAs not named Arraez. His launch angle is poor, but if he just elevates a bit more, and frankly, he could have a late breakout. I wouldn't count on it, he's old, but he's a fine backup, and if we want to tighten the defense for a GB pitcher, he can play either 2nd or 3rd occasionally.

I don't know how anyone can see Vargas and be like, yeah, that's a guy I want on the bench.

IF we were serious about competing, we would go sign Gio Urshela. He can play shortstop, third, second, and is a significantly better hitter. He'd be an improvement over anyone else we start at third base, and would be fine taking a bench role after we call up House/Morales/Lipscomb (if we even do). But that would cost multiple years and millions so we won't.

Vargas doesn't hit the ball hard. He's in the bottom quarter of MLB of EV and hard hit rate. Again, he's only here because he's a nice cheerleader.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Yes but we still had multiple options of non-32 year old, replacement level players who should have played there.

The only reason they got Candelario was to flip him.

most of those starts were before Kieboom was healthy and when Garcia was in the minors. It was Alu at 2nd and Vargas at 3rd in August, mostly.

And yes, he should not be starting regularly if there's somebody with a potential future around. I'd put Alu as a somebody. It's too soon to write him off offensively. Kieboom's bigger problem is his options at this point. He needs to win the 3rd base job over Alu and maybe Lipscomb next spring, or he's waived as a 1 position backup.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Vargas doesn't hit the ball hard. He's in the bottom quarter of MLB of EV and hard hit rate. Again, he's only here because he's a nice cheerleader.

I should have said max EV, not average EV

Vargas doesn’t hit the ball hard, but he makes significantly harder contact than his contact-hitting compatriots. His maximum exit velocity would rank in the 44th percentile among qualified hitters. No one is calling that good, per se, but it puts him in a whole different category than guys like Kemp and Arraez, who rank last and second-last, respectively, among qualified batters in maxEV.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/ildemaro-vargas-makes-contact-and-signs-a-contract/

Oh, and I'd be on board with signing Urshela. I want a better 3rd baseman at the start of the year than any of the likely options in house. I just see why Vargas was playing and think he has uses as a backup given the alternatives.

[Slateman]

most of those starts were before Kieboom was healthy and when Garcia was in the minors. It was Alu at 2nd and Vargas at 3rd in August, mostly.

And yes, he should not be starting regularly if there's somebody with a potential future around. I'd put Alu as a somebody. It's too soon to write him off offensively. Kieboom's bigger problem is his options at this point. He needs to win the 3rd base job over Alu and maybe Lipscomb next spring, or he's waived as a 1 position backup.

lol, what? Kieboom was healthy, Baker was healthy, Jeter Downs was healthy.

I'm not sure you understand my stance. There is zero circumstance in which a player as bad as Vargas should be allowed to start more than two games in a row. Literally anyone else in our system has more of a potential future than Vargas.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

https://twitter.com/wilmbluerocks/status/1686472903024422913?s=61

Rehab assignment to Wilmington

Back at Rochester, starting at 3B tonight

Welcome back to the big leagues!  Kieboom recalled

So, he was injured up to 8/19 and pretty much moved into 3rd base after that. Vargas wasn't blocking him. He just had 2-3 weeks to do his rehab and get hitting again.

As for Baker, he would have caused 40 man roster problems. He doesn't need to be added until after next season. He can compete next spring for 2nd. Has he even played 3rd?

[aspenbubba]

Why the hell are we talking about KieBUST. He is another Chris Marrero who actually got to the show. Downs should be released immediately. Alu who actually has some value is still questionable  is worthy of another  look beause of his versatility.

How does anyone know what ownership is willing to do. Why would Rizzo sign on with a sinking ship. My belief is we sign at least one FA pitcher who  could slit in as a # 2 or 3. Hopefully and I am keeping my fingers crossed at least two prospects at AA make it up to the show sometime this summer.

[UMDNats]

Uh ... that's a lot. Like, where are those players coming from? Are we assuming that Gore is going to go from a 4.42 ERA to sub 3.50, and pitch 180 innings? That Gray is going to continue to outperform his fastball and peripherals? That Williams and Corbin aren't going to suck to a 5+ ERA? And where is the offense coming from? Just magically going to get more out of Ruiz, Abrams, Garcia, and ... ?

Without a significant influx of talent, that's not happening next year. And the talent we need is the top of the rotation/middle of the order kind that will cost you 25-35 million a year to get.

I mean, a full year of a Candelario-type signing, replacing Alex Call with a decent player, Ruiz improves a little, second-half Abrams is the real, deal, etc. I don't think it's out of the question that a bunch of 20-something players improve by a little bit and a couple solid veterans get them to a point that they can actually be a problem.

What if Dylan Crews is as good as expected and is in the majors by June and smashes? That's essentially a free 2-3 WAR improvement over Alex Call and Corey Dickerson. Add in the corpse of Rhys Hoskins at DH over crappy Meneses or something and you're cooking a little bit.

[Natsinpwc]

They hit on Candy. Missed on Dickerson.  Not much from Smith either. Not easy to just find productive guys at cheap prices.

[Slateman]

I mean, a full year of a Candelario-type signing,

So who is that? Which third baseman are they signing for 5 million that will product an 800+ OPS?

 

replacing Alex Call with a decent player

Again, who? So now we're signing two free agents? Its super slim pickings this year in the position player free agent market.

 

Ruiz improves a little,

Ruiz was arguably the worst catcher in baseball last year. I'm going to need to see a whole lot more than "a little" for Ruiz to be a net positive at this point.

 

second-half Abrams is the real, deal, etc. 

Second-half Abrams was .733 OPS. Thats a worse hitter than Thomas Lane. Not sure another Thomas Lane with worse defense at shortstop is gonna get us a whole lot of wins.

 

  I don't think it's out of the question that a bunch of 20-something players improve by a little bit and a couple solid veterans get them to a point that they can actually be a problem.

I think its extremally questionable to expect 20-something players to dramatically improve that much. And I don't think there are solid veterans to be had at the Nats' pricepoints. Trevor Williams is what you can expect to find in that "solid veteran" territory.

 

What if Dylan Crews is as good as expected and is in the majors by June and smashes? That's essentially a free 2-3 WAR improvement over Alex Call and Corey Dickerson.

What if he does, but honestly, you can't count on it and that has not been the case for Nationals players. Harper was really the only one who came up and mashed. I wouldn't expect Crews to be that impactful. I'm expecting him to perform similar to what Rendon did his first time up to the majors. Which is be a league average bat. Fine for replacing Call, but still a below average offering in a corner.

 

Add in the corpse of Rhys Hoskins at DH over crappy Meneses or something and you're cooking a little bit.

Okay, now you're adding a 17-20 million dollar player? That's way more than finding a "Candelario-type." Is that plus the Candelario types you want to grab, or is Hoskin the "Candelario-type" you are expecting to add.

Also, you're still returning a rotation that has two guys with 5+ ERAs in Williams and Corbin, a big question mark in Gore, a 4/5 potential in Irvin, and an even bigger question mark in Gray.

[Natsinpwc]

So who is that? Which third baseman are they signing for 5 million that will product an 800+ OPS?

Maikel Franco!

[imref]

Looks like ST could be the end of the line for Kieboom. There's no place for him to play with Senzel and Gallo, and no need for a CI who can't hit. I assume he gets some chances in ST and if he doesn't produce, it's DFA time (he's out of options).

[blue911]

Looks like ST could be the end of the line for Kieboom. There's no place for him to play with Senzel and Gallo, and no need for a CI who can't hit. I assume he gets some chances in ST and if he doesn't produce, it's DFA time (he's out of options).

He,Robles and Garcia can all piss off.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

He,Robles and Garcia can all piss off.

but how do you really feel? No couching it in soft terms.

Do you think they might go with some combo of Nunez, Alu, and Vargas at 2nd? Nunez/Vargas would be a great defensive option.

I suspect Garcia has a longer leash than Kieboom and Robles.

I'll say Kieboom doesn't last the spring, Robles is gone by August, and Garcia last the whole year.