Patrick Corbin Consternation Thread

[Mattionals]

I can't believe how bad it has gotten for this guy. Hard to believe he is 2 years removed from pitching 200+ innings at a high level.

I feel like you have to try him as a starter next season but eventually consider moving him to the pen as a left specialist who can go long. It'll hurt to have that much money invested into a reliever, but I'd rather have a highly overpaid effective bullpen arm than a flailing starter. His platoon stats are so significant I think he could maybe figure into a different role. Maybe get creative, use him as an opener against teams with a couple talented left handed bats at the top.

It was year 4 of the Ian Kennedy contract where the Royals bailed on him as a starter right? IIRC, Kennedy signed a 5 year deal with the Royals, so if we extrapolate that out using maths, that would mean they shouldn't try to convert Corbin until at least late next season if he still pitches like this.


Good thing Mike Foltynewicz and Jordan Lyles exist this season because they are stinking it up more than Corbin. Only thing different is that Texas was expected to stink coming into the season.

[Smithian]

It was year 4 of the Ian Kennedy contract where the Royals bailed on him as a starter right? IIRC, Kennedy signed a 5 year deal with the Royals, so if we extrapolate that out using maths, that would mean they shouldn't try to convert Corbin until at least late next season if he still pitches like this.


Good thing Mike Foltynewicz and Jordan Lyles exist this season because they are stinking it up more than Corbin. Only thing different is that Texas was expected to stink coming into the season.

Right on Kennedy.

If the Royals are willing to eat the embarrassment of moving a high paid free agent to the bullpen, so can the Nationals if he starts off next season poorly.

[hotshot]

Am I wrong in thinking a lot of Corbin's major problems have been in the first inning? Probably every inning this season but it just seems he's always rocky early. Not a good sign for being an effective reliever.

[Slateman]

Am I wrong in thinking a lot of Corbin's major problems have been in the first inning? Probably every inning this season but it just seems he's always rocky early. Not a good sign for being an effective reliever.

Yes and no. Earlier in the season it was. Then it moved to beyond 70+ pitches. Yesterday was the first start since Aug 3 where he had given up a run in the first inning, the first time he'd given up more than one run since July 16th.

As a reference, Ian Kennedy's last two seasons as a starter had 4.50 and 5.10 ERAs in the first inning

[Slateman]

Also, if you move Corbin to the pen, then what do you do with Stras when he cant stay healthy enough to start?

[Smithian]

Also, if you move Corbin to the pen, then what do you do with Stras when he cant stay healthy enough to start?

Thankfully, bullpens have multiple arms.

They're on roster. The money is guaranteed. Maximize their value, even if you have the unwelcome honor of the most expensive bullpen in baseball history.

[aspenbubba]

He freaking sucks. Not a major league pitcher. I didn’t think it was a good signing from the beginning.

[Elvir Ovcina]

Here's a thought exercise: if the Nationals considered an offer to trade Corbin to the Dodgers straight up for Bauer this winter, who says no?

Bauer will probably never pitch in the majors again, and his contract structure means he can opt in twice and be paid $64 million over two years.  The Nationals would be responsible for that.

Corbin can continue to pitch.  He might even be somewhat fixable to the point of providing positive value, although likely not much.  He's owed $82 million over 3 years, which would save the Nationals actual money, but save the Dodgers as well because he'd lower their tax bill by a huge amount versus Bauer over the next 2 years.  So the question becomes whether Corbin might generate $18 million in value over the next 3 years: that's around 2-3 WAR. 

This is probably only a sandbox exercise because MLB is likely to suspend Bauer without pay for a significant portion of that contract, and I doubt the Nats would take on Bauer's name even in a transaction in which they made clear he'd never play for them.  You could of course structure a trade to fix the first issue.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Here's a thought exercise: if the Nationals considered an offer to trade Corbin to the Dodgers straight up for Bauer this winter, who says no?

Bauer will probably never pitch in the majors again, and his contract structure means he can opt in twice and be paid $64 million over two years.  The Nationals would be responsible for that.

Corbin can continue to pitch.  He might even be somewhat fixable to the point of providing positive value, although likely not much.  He's owed $82 million over 3 years, which would save the Nationals actual money, but save the Dodgers as well because he'd lower their tax bill by a huge amount versus Bauer over the next 2 years.  So the question becomes whether Corbin might generate $18 million in value over the next 3 years: that's around 2-3 WAR. 

This is probably only a sandbox exercise because MLB is likely to suspend Bauer without pay for a significant portion of that contract, and I doubt the Nats would take on Bauer's name even in a transaction in which they made clear he'd never play for them.  You could of course structure a trade to fix the first issue.

after what they've said about Castro, the Nats would not take on Bauer.  More than most teams (Even the LAD), the Nats have exposure on Capitol Hill, so I think baseball would block a trade under the best interests clause.  however, would the Nats take a concentrated cap hit that expires before Soto's team control is up?  Yes.  Even thought Soto's FA isn't until after Corbin's contract is up, that $23 million or so he's due for 2023 probably hurts the ability to offer Soto a contract a year early when the team, in theory, has some leverage.  If the team were to offer something like 3 years early (this offseason) in exchange for maybe 2 or 3 years beyond 2024, then I still think taking the early cap hit while Ruiz and others are still cheap might be to the Nats advantage.

[Elvir Ovcina]

after what they've said about Castro, the Nats would not take on Bauer.  More than most teams (Even the LAD), the Nats have exposure on Capitol Hill, so I think baseball would block a trade under the best interests clause.  however, would the Nats take a concentrated cap hit that expires before Soto's team control is up?  Yes.  Even thought Soto's FA isn't until after Corbin's contract is up, that $23 million or so he's due for 2023 probably hurts the ability to offer Soto a contract a year early when the team, in theory, has some leverage.  If the team were to offer something like 3 years early (this offseason) in exchange for maybe 2 or 3 years beyond 2024, then I still think taking the early cap hit while Ruiz and others are still cheap might be to the Nats advantage.

That's what I was getting at.  It's not necessarily Bauer specifically - he's just a convenient bad contract to analyze because he's so unlikely to have any value on the field.  You can do the same question with other shorter bad contracts, although none of them are quite as clean (or are higher annual value on the remaining years than Corbin, so you'd still need to eat money).  I think it underscores exactly how toxic Corbin's contract is...and Strasburg's is way worse.

And Corbin's contract is actually worse than your scenario above: the last year is $35 million.

[aspenbubba]

The simple solution is to hire some hitmen to break his left arm permanently. Of course they would have to be schooled in differentiating left from right.

[Mattionals]

The simple solution is to hire some hitmen to break his left arm permanently. Of course they would have to be schooled in differentiating left from right.

Doesn't matter if he is hurt, he still counts towards the CBT.

[Count Walewski]

The Athletic did a mock expansion draft, pretending that Nashville and Montreal got expansion franchises. Patrick Corbin was taken by the Expos with the #2 overall pick in the draft. Could be an option for Strasburg too.

[Slateman]

The Athletic did a mock expansion draft, pretending that Nashville and Montreal got expansion franchises. Patrick Corbin was taken by the Expos with the #2 overall pick in the draft. Could be an option for Strasburg too.

That writer is stupid and shouldnt be employed anymore

[Elvir Ovcina]

That writer is stupid and shouldnt be employed anymore

Harsh but correct as to the first one, unless this scenario came with the supposition that Omar Minaya was again the GM.  Who was their next pick, Yordano Ventura?

[Natsinpwc]

Harsh but correct as to the first one, unless this scenario came with the supposition that Omar Minaya was again the GM.  Who was their next pick, Yordano Ventura?

Plus there is no likely expansion in the next couple years is there?

In the NHL, if you want someone to take your High priced vet you have to throw in some sweeteners such as draft picks.  Of course those salaries are nowhere near as high.

[bluestreak]

He freaking sucks. Not a major league pitcher. I didn’t think it was a good signing from the beginning.

Do you think they win the WS without him?

[Elvir Ovcina]

Do you think they win the WS without him?

I don't think anyone thinks that, but the fact that he was good in 2019 doesn't change the fact that he's not a major league quality pitcher right now.  The only question that really leaves is whether that was worth a six year contract.  It's the same question everyone ends up with when discussing the Eaton trade, for example.  I personally tend to think that's a painful yes, but that - not whether they win without him - is the real question.

They wouldn't have won in 2019 without Doolittle, but I don't hear a chorus of voices pointing that out with respect to his 2021 skill level.  If he had a six year contract, probably there would be.

[aspenbubba]

Doesn't matter if he is hurt, he still counts towards the CBT.

It’s not a baseball injury and we can have it done in the off season

[Natsinpwc]

They need to find a team whose pitching coach or front office people think they found some flaw in his delivery.  The odds of that are probably less than 1%.

 I really think he needs to work on the changeup.  Needs an effective third pitch.  Guys just lay off the slider and the fastball is not great.  Tell him to throw 30% changeups the rest of this year and spring training no matter the results. 

[Mattionals]

It’s not a baseball injury and we can have it done in the off season

In baseball the entire contract is guaranteed unless the player violates an MLB policy or retires prior to the end of his contract. Even if Corbin is hurt with a non-baseball injury, he would have to retire and willfully give up that contract. Even if something catastrophic like loss of life, his family or whoever his beneficiaries are get his money.


And he still counts toward the CBT. To put it lightly, the only way to get rid of Corbin's tax hit is to trade him.

[bluestreak]

I don't think anyone thinks that, but the fact that he was good in 2019 doesn't change the fact that he's not a major league quality pitcher right now.  The only question that really leaves is whether that was worth a six year contract.  It's the same question everyone ends up with when discussing the Eaton trade, for example.  I personally tend to think that's a painful yes, but that - not whether they win without him - is the real question.

They wouldn't have won in 2019 without Doolittle, but I don't hear a chorus of voices pointing that out with respect to his 2021 skill level.  If he had a six year contract, probably there would be.

I was replying to a comment that we shouldn’t have signed him in the first place. I’m not debating that he is awful now. I don’t think it matters whether he was “worth” a six year contract. That’s what it took to keep him from signing with the Yankees.

I can acknowledge that he sucks now but still think it was necessary to sign him. This is the price of admission for a big time free agent pitcher.

[hohoho]

I don't think anyone thinks that, but the fact that he was good in 2019 doesn't change the fact that he's not a major league quality pitcher right now.  The only question that really leaves is whether that was worth a six year contract.  It's the same question everyone ends up with when discussing the Eaton trade, for example.  I personally tend to think that's a painful yes, but that - not whether they win without him - is the real question.

They wouldn't have won in 2019 without Doolittle, but I don't hear a chorus of voices pointing that out with respect to his 2021 skill level.  If he had a six year contract, probably there would be.

Worth it to who? They are not paying him with my money.

[imref]

The real question is what to do with Corbin going forward. There's really no reason not to let him finish out the season and make four or five more starts.  Then you bring him to camp next year and see what happens. If he's awful again, the only choice is to DFA him and eat the contract.

[Mattionals]

The real question is what to do with Corbin going forward. There's really no reason not to let him finish out the season and make four or five more starts.  Then you bring him to camp next year and see what happens. If he's awful again, the only choice is to DFA him and eat the contract.

They aren't going to DFA him, not until the last year of the deal. They will convert him to a reliever before they DFA him. He is turning into Ian Kennedy, and Kennedy has found success in the pen.