Author Topic: Patrick Corbin Consternation Thread  (Read 4931 times)

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Offline CoryTheFormerExposFan

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Re: Patrick Corbin Consternation Thread
« Reply #250: September 30, 2021, 03:43:47 PM »
On the bright side, he's still in what should be his prime years, he's athletic, his "stuff" is still intact, and he's been healthy/durable.  I'm holding out hope he can return to form, maybe not all the way to previous levels but a high 3's ERA while taking the ball every 5th day.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Patrick Corbin Consternation Thread
« Reply #251: September 30, 2021, 04:39:30 PM »
from 4/16/21 - 6/30/21, 13 starts, he averaged 5 7/8 innings per start, had nearly a 3:1 K/BB ratio (7.3/2.5), .256 opponents BA, 1.23 WHIP, 4.01 ERA, 4.24 FIP/3.84 xFIP (a little dinger prone), with a .311 wOBA.  That's pretty good pitching.  Not great, maybe some of it was overlapping with sticky stuff, but 3/4 rotation slot OK.

From 6/30 - 9/1, 11 starts, 58.1 IP, he had a 7.56 ERA, .390 wOBA, with a .299 / .351 / .577 opponents slash line, and a 2.4 K/BB.  6.62 FIP, 4.61xFIP, 2.8 HR/9.

This month, his ERA is fine (3.82), but his wOBA is high (.369). .304 / .372 / .496.  6+ IP / start, 2.2 K/BB, 1.57.  Biggest improvement is in dingers (1.2 / 9), with a bit of bad luck on BABIP (.352).  FIP 4.24, xFIP 3.81, essentially matching the start of the year.

If you say the BABIP luck drives some of the // line and wOBA problems, somewhat compensated for by the HR/9 improvement, it starts to look like his awful 2 months hid an OK year.


Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Patrick Corbin Consternation Thread
« Reply #252: September 30, 2021, 04:42:50 PM »
from 4/16/21 - 6/30/21, 13 starts, he averaged 5 7/8 innings per start, had nearly a 3:1 K/BB ratio (7.3/2.5), .256 opponents BA, 1.23 WHIP, 4.01 ERA, 4.24 FIP/3.84 xFIP (a little dinger prone), with a .311 wOBA.  That's pretty good pitching.  Not great, maybe some of it was overlapping with sticky stuff, but 3/4 rotation slot OK.

From 6/30 - 9/1, 11 starts, 58.1 IP, he had a 7.56 ERA, .390 wOBA, with a .299 / .351 / .577 opponents slash line, and a 2.4 K/BB.  6.62 FIP, 4.61xFIP, 2.8 HR/9.

This month, his ERA is fine (3.82), but his wOBA is high (.369). .304 / .372 / .496.  6+ IP / start, 2.2 K/BB, 1.57.  Biggest improvement is in dingers (1.2 / 9), with a bit of bad luck on BABIP (.352).  FIP 4.24, xFIP 3.81, essentially matching the start of the year.

If you say the BABIP luck drives some of the // line and wOBA problems, somewhat compensated for by the HR/9 improvement, it starts to look like his awful 2 months hid an OK year.
If you take out his worst two months don't you also have to remove his best two?

If he could post a 4.50 ERA for a season that would be serviceable.  That's 6 innings and 3 earned runs on average.  Keeps you in most games. 

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Patrick Corbin Consternation Thread
« Reply #253: September 30, 2021, 04:52:34 PM »
If you take out his worst two months don't you also have to remove his best two?

No, if you know why the bad two months were aberrations and you are looking at him going forward.  Was it adjusting to pitching without the sticky stuff?  Was it a whiney baby at home (Elvir mentioned he had a kid in May)?  Was it what was speculated in Fangraphs, a problem with his delivery, that was adjusted in September and worked out?  I'm not arguing he had a good year.  I'm saying there might be a basis for saying he's not a disaster going forward. 

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Patrick Corbin Consternation Thread
« Reply #254: September 30, 2021, 05:01:40 PM »
No, if you know why the bad two months were aberrations and you are looking at him going forward.  Was it adjusting to pitching without the sticky stuff?  Was it a whiney baby at home (Elvir mentioned he had a kid in May)?  Was it what was speculated in Fangraphs, a problem with his delivery, that was adjusted in September and worked out?  I'm not arguing he had a good year.  I'm saying there might be a basis for saying he's not a disaster going forward.
He wasn’t very good in 2020 either as I recall. Still think he needs a third pitch.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Patrick Corbin Consternation Thread
« Reply #255: September 30, 2021, 05:04:48 PM »
from 4/16/21 - 6/30/21, 13 starts, he averaged 5 7/8 innings per start, had nearly a 3:1 K/BB ratio (7.3/2.5), .256 opponents BA, 1.23 WHIP, 4.01 ERA, 4.24 FIP/3.84 xFIP (a little dinger prone), with a .311 wOBA.  That's pretty good pitching.  Not great, maybe some of it was overlapping with sticky stuff, but 3/4 rotation slot OK.

From 6/30 - 9/1, 11 starts, 58.1 IP, he had a 7.56 ERA, .390 wOBA, with a .299 / .351 / .577 opponents slash line, and a 2.4 K/BB.  6.62 FIP, 4.61xFIP, 2.8 HR/9.

This month, his ERA is fine (3.82), but his wOBA is high (.369). .304 / .372 / .496.  6+ IP / start, 2.2 K/BB, 1.57.  Biggest improvement is in dingers (1.2 / 9), with a bit of bad luck on BABIP (.352).  FIP 4.24, xFIP 3.81, essentially matching the start of the year.

If you say the BABIP luck drives some of the // line and wOBA problems, somewhat compensated for by the HR/9 improvement, it starts to look like his awful 2 months hid an OK year.



Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Offline bluestreak

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Re: Patrick Corbin Consternation Thread
« Reply #257: October 02, 2021, 12:03:50 AM »
He wasn’t very good in 2020 either as I recall. Still think he needs a third pitch.

Don’t use 2020 for any conclusions. Weird preparation, short season, etc.

Online imref

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Re: Patrick Corbin Consternation Thread
« Reply #258: December 07, 2021, 06:28:31 PM »
Is there some glimmer of hope?

Last 5 starts: 3.82 ERA / 4.25 FIP, 29ks, 13BBs, .304BA, 4 quality starts in 5 games.

Innings/ER
9/28: 6/2
9/23: 6.2/0
9/18: 4/6
9/12: 7/2
9/6: 7/3

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Patrick Corbin Consternation Thread
« Reply #259: December 07, 2021, 08:00:04 PM »
Is there some glimmer of hope?

Last 5 starts: 3.82 ERA / 4.25 FIP, 29ks, 13BBs, .304BA, 4 quality starts in 5 games.

Innings/ER
9/28: 6/2
9/23: 6.2/0
9/18: 4/6
9/12: 7/2
9/6: 7/3
also, look at his run from after his first two starts to the end of June. He had some good streaks. To the extent there's a tipping issue or a delivery fix, he may have a fixed problem.  His overall stats blew, but there were prolonged quality streaks.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Patrick Corbin Consternation Thread
« Reply #260: December 27, 2021, 05:18:49 PM »


Do you guys remember when there were rumors about trading Corbin? Dont know where these guys are getting it from, but they claim Preller was trying to do a three team deal with the Nats and Padres

Offline Mattionals

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Re: Patrick Corbin Consternation Thread
« Reply #261: December 28, 2021, 10:01:39 AM »


Do you guys remember when there were rumors about trading Corbin? Dont know where these guys are getting it from, but they claim Preller was trying to do a three team deal with the Nats and Padres


Would have been great to get Corbin AND Harper out of the NL East.

Offline Ali the Baseball Cat

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Re: Patrick Corbin Consternation Thread
« Reply #262: December 30, 2021, 02:20:34 PM »
And Max  :(

Would have been great to get Corbin AND Harper out of the NL East.

Offline YadiSTAR aka Smithian

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Re: Patrick Corbin Consternation Thread
« Reply #263: January 19, 2022, 01:41:00 PM »
I'm fully in favor of team doing sin trades. You take our overpaid disaster, we'll take yours. See if either guy thrives with a new environment.

Offline Ali the Baseball Cat

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Re: Patrick Corbin Consternation Thread
« Reply #264: January 19, 2022, 02:32:37 PM »
Just no Trevor Bauer

Offline Greg_SRT

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Re: Patrick Corbin Consternation Thread
« Reply #265: January 20, 2022, 10:08:30 AM »
I think he has a great 2022. Possibly not even allowing a hit this whole year

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Patrick Corbin Consternation Thread
« Reply #266: January 20, 2022, 10:54:31 AM »
I think he has a great 2022. Possibly not even allowing a hit this whole year
especially true if there's no season :mg: