Patrick Corbin Consternation Thread

[Slateman]

Not enough I guess. It’s hard to get by with two pitches if one of them is below average.

Which one of his two pitched is below average?

[welch]

Which one of his two pitched is below average?

If Corbin is sloppy with his fastball, then it is ineffective. Call that below average. Unless the count is a ball and two strikes, batters can let the slider dive into the dirt. If they both roll in between 91 and 93 mph, it is hard to disrupt a batter's timing. "Hitting is timing and pitching is disrupting a batter's timing", said Spahn.

[GataNats]

Corbin’s fastball is fine.   He’s been hitting 96 with it the past month.   He needs to develop a change or cutter

[Natsinpwc]

Jon Lester’s ERA is more than a run per game better than Corbin.

[welch]

Needs to find and use more off speed stuff.  Just doesn't throw it enough given that his fastball is not that fast.  A changeup or slow curve. 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/player-scroll?player_id=571578#pitchTypes

Fascinating. (I just read this). First thing that hops out is that his pitches are usually out of the strike zone. Reading down, it looks like Corbin is only a little worse than league average: Corbin gets about 46.4% in the zone and average is about 50%. Striking that his slider is in the zone 35%, which fits what I see: Corbin's slider dives out of the strikezone and he suffers unless hitters swing as sliders in the dirt.

If a batter does not have to swing, if he does not have two strikes, then Corbin is in trouble.

I wonder what his numbers look like in 2019.

[welch]

Ah...quick comparison from Corbin 2017, 2019, 2021: hitters have always hit his fastball, but hitting it better this year. Bouncing around .280 and now well over .300. They also have always hit hit sinker. Cannot hit the slider, which they hit at about .155 in 2019, but they are up around .225 or so.

Looks like batters have always hit his sinker and fastball. If he can't get hitters out with the sinker and fastball, and if even his slider is a little more hittable, he is cooked.

[Slateman]

His changeup is complete garbage and he has two different sliders he throws. His offspeed is as good as its ever been. He simply cant locate his fastball and maintain velo and movement.

[Natsinpwc]

Ah...quick comparison from Corbin 2017, 2019, 2021: hitters have always hit his fastball, but hitting it better this year. Bouncing around .280 and now well over .300. They also have always hit hit sinker. Cannot hit the slider, which they hit at about .155 in 2019, but they are up around .225 or so.

Looks like batters have always hit his sinker and fastball. If he can't get hitters out with the sinker and fastball, and if even his slider is a little more hittable, he is cooked.

Or to put another way, a guy with an ERA over 6.00 has no plus pitches. At least this year. 

[Slateman]

Or to put another way, a guy with an ERA over 6.00 has no plus pitches. At least this year. 

His slider is still plus.

[Natsinpwc]

His slider is still plus.

Not if only 35% are strikes and guys don’t swing.

[Slateman]

Not if only 35% are strikes and guys don’t swing.

If opposing batters are hitting .206 against a pitch while swinging at it 51% of the time, that is a plus pitch.

[Natsinpwc]

If opposing batters are hitting .206 against a pitch while swinging at it 51% of the time, that is a plus pitch.

His ERA is over 6. If he was not on a long term expensive deal he would be in the minors or on long relief.

[Smithian]

His ERA is over 6. If he was not on a long term expensive deal he would be in the minors or on long relief.

His splits, at least before his last start, screamed lefty specialist who may be able to eat some innings in a pinch.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I watched Garrett Richards go 3 innings in relief last night against the Rays and pitch pretty effectively.  He's been Corbinesque this year as a starter.  It did make me wonder about converting him to a multi-inning reliever.  His fastball might even gain some velo, and his slider might be tougher to take if you only see it one plate appearance.

[Slateman]

Richards has always had great stuff. He just couldnt stay healthy

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Richards has always had great stuff. He just couldnt stay healthy

this year his health hasn't been an issue.  Isn't there a theory that he became dependent on the sticky stuff and has had his spin rate drop?

[Slateman]

this year his health hasn't been an issue.  Isn't there a theory that he became dependent on the sticky stuff and has had his spin rate drop?

He probably did

[hotshot]

Every ineffective pitcher's woes can, and are, being attributed to the "sticky stuff" crackdown. A decent percentage have always just been sub-par major league hurlers.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Every ineffective pitcher's woes can, and are, being attributed to the "sticky stuff" crackdown. A decent percentage have always just been sub-par major league hurlers.

well, that's not Richards. He may have even admitted to needing to adjust his grip

[Natsinpwc]

this year his health hasn't been an issue.  Isn't there a theory that he became dependent on the sticky stuff and has had his spin rate drop?

Corbin was not very good last year or the early part of this season. 

[Slateman]

I just think Corbin has a lot of innings and is simply loosing velocity and his ability to locate. Especially given his more recent struggles that seem to start at about the 70 pitch mark.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

As much as we want to see Ruiz and Adams, maybe Avila should catch Corbin if it gets Corbin right.  Anything to help Corbin get back on track.

[welch]

As much as we want to see Ruiz and Adams, maybe Avila should catch Corbin if it gets Corbin right.  Anything to help Corbin get back on track.

Yes. And might help Josiah Gray, as well.

[Slateman]

As much as we want to see Ruiz and Adams, maybe Avila should catch Corbin if it gets Corbin right.  Anything to help Corbin get back on track.

Is Corbin getting better or is he getting lucky? Low strikeouts and still goving up WHIP

[JCA-CrystalCity]

davey talking about the decision right now.  This is his thinking - get him on track.  carp and FP talked about the battery's rhythm and lack of shake offs.  You would want more Ks, but he seemed to have the pirates under control. not great contact.