Author Topic: Patrick Corbin Consternation Thread  (Read 1603 times)

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Offline Elvir Ovcina

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Re: Patrick Corbin Consternation Thread
« Reply #25: April 16, 2021, 03:58:03 PM »
I'm not going to say the signing was a mistake.  In 2019, over his first 10 starts before the Nationals took off at the 19-31 mark, Corbin went 4-2 with a 3.25 ERA, with the Nationals 6-4 overall in his starts. It's still a shock the Nationals crawled out of that hole, and let's say you put in a lesser pitcher who went 4-6? It's not much, but that little bit may have been just enough the team never recovered. And we know what he did in Game 7.

We can acknowledge a Championship alone maybe justified the signing, and still worry about how he plays into the Nationals plans the next few years.

It has to be part of a larger discussion about the fact that everything the Nats did those years was to try to win it all at least once.  They did that, and choosing to pay Corbin instead of Harper (which was essentially the choice) was a big part of that.   They don't really have much plan at all for the next few years, as far as I can tell.

This team isn't going to be good on an open-ended basis.  The farm system is trash, for one.  Scherzer is old and going to be a free agent.  Strasburg and Corbin are getting into their decline years.  Robles hasn't been very good recently.  Turner's coming up on free agency. Besides Soto - granted, a pretty big "besides" - the team has no players who are reasonable bets to be top contributors 2-3 years from now.   You're basically looking at the Angels from 3-4 years ago. 

Offline Ali the Baseball Cat

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Re: Patrick Corbin Consternation Thread
« Reply #26: April 16, 2021, 04:26:39 PM »
The box score in the dead tree WaPost says that last night's attendance was 6,666 so I think that poor Corbin was gaught in the grips of a manichaean struggle

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Re: Patrick Corbin Consternation Thread
« Reply #27: April 16, 2021, 04:30:45 PM »
It has to be part of a larger discussion about the fact that everything the Nats did those years was to try to win it all at least once.  They did that, and choosing to pay Corbin instead of Harper (which was essentially the choice) was a big part of that.   They don't really have much plan at all for the next few years, as far as I can tell.

This team isn't going to be good on an open-ended basis.  The farm system is trash, for one.  Scherzer is old and going to be a free agent.  Strasburg and Corbin are getting into their decline years.  Robles hasn't been very good recently.  Turner's coming up on free agency. Besides Soto - granted, a pretty big "besides" - the team has no players who are reasonable bets to be top contributors 2-3 years from now.   You're basically looking at the Angels from 3-4 years ago. 

the plan is/was
- Transition to a new offensive core of Soto, Turner, Robles, Garcia, and Kieboom
- Fill in around them with FAs as needed (Bell, Schwarber)
- Maintain a rotation centered around Strasburg and Corbin, perhaps even Max for another year or two
- Develop Cavelli and Rutledge to take on rotation slots

Unfortunately, Robles and Kieboom aren't cooperating, and Strasburg and Corbin are struggling as well. They did have a plan, it's just not working so far.

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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Re: Patrick Corbin Consternation Thread
« Reply #28: April 16, 2021, 04:39:52 PM »
the plan is/was
- Transition to a new offensive core of Soto, Turner, Robles, Garcia, and Kieboom
- Fill in around them with FAs as needed (Bell, Schwarber)
- Maintain a rotation centered around Strasburg and Corbin, perhaps even Max for another year or two
- Develop Cavelli and Rutledge to take on rotation slots

Unfortunately, Robles and Kieboom aren't cooperating, and Strasburg and Corbin are struggling as well. They did have a plan, it's just not working so far.

Well, yeah, except that plan required a pretty charmed existence.  It basically requires all your decent prospects to come up aces and your old guys to not get old.   By that I mean that any plan that has at its core a reliance on two $150 million + Tommy John survivors in their 30s plus pitchers with nothing above Single-A and zero plans for a bullpen (in a system that hasn't produced a single valuable pitcher in nearly a decade) isn't a great one.

Online Slateman

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Re: Patrick Corbin Consternation Thread
« Reply #29: April 16, 2021, 04:44:58 PM »
the plan is/was
- Transition to a new offensive core of Soto, Turner, Robles, Garcia, and Kieboom
- Fill in around them with FAs as needed (Bell, Schwarber)
- Maintain a rotation centered around Strasburg and Corbin, perhaps even Max for another year or two
- Develop Cavelli and Rutledge to take on rotation slots

Unfortunately, Robles and Kieboom aren't cooperating, and Strasburg and Corbin are struggling as well. They did have a plan, it's just not working so far.

Well Turner is probably not going to be here much longer, meanwhile Robles, Garcia, and Kieboom cant hit.

Online imref

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Re: Patrick Corbin Consternation Thread
« Reply #30: April 16, 2021, 04:46:30 PM »
Well Turner is probably not going to be here much longer, meanwhile Robles, Garcia, and Kieboom cant hit.

yeah, we've got Turner this season and next at least, with Garcia waiting in the wings (Garcia is still only 20).

Online imref

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Re: Patrick Corbin Consternation Thread
« Reply #31: April 16, 2021, 04:47:57 PM »
Well, yeah, except that plan required a pretty charmed existence.  It basically requires all your decent prospects to come up aces and your old guys to not get old.   By that I mean that any plan that has at its core a reliance on two $150 million + Tommy John survivors in their 30s plus pitchers with nothing above Single-A and zero plans for a bullpen (in a system that hasn't produced a single valuable pitcher in nearly a decade) isn't a great one.

and that's why we're 3-7

Offline UMDNats

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Re: Patrick Corbin Consternation Thread
« Reply #32: April 16, 2021, 05:22:06 PM »
This is pretty normal for free agent signings. Especially pitchers. You hope that half the contract he performs up to or near the cost. The other half is simply the cost of doing business.

Nationals fanbase is spoiled. They expect every prospect to become Harper and Soto, and every free agent signing to be Murphy or Scherzer.

Yeah, we got so lucky with Max that people forget most big money FA pitchers suck after a year or two.

Strasburg is down that path but re-signing him was always gonna happen after his playoff performance.

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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Re: Patrick Corbin Consternation Thread
« Reply #33: April 16, 2021, 05:42:46 PM »
and that's why we're 3-7

It's why people better get used to win totals in the 70s. 

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Patrick Corbin Consternation Thread
« Reply #34: April 16, 2021, 07:33:08 PM »
I'm more concerned about the general downward trend, plus his age, injury history, and contract, than I am about yesterday's game.  Yesterday would get forgotten quickly if he hadn't also been mediocre last year, about to turn 32, have had Tommy John nearly a decade ago, and have 3.9 expensive seasons left on his deal.

But anything with Corbin needs to be judged alongside the fact that he put the 2019 team over the top.  Is that worth $160 million?  Not really my question to answer.
I took a look at his pitch data on Fangraphs.  His 4 seam velocity is right where it was in 2018 and 2020.  It's just his slider has gone from a swing and miss plus pitch to an uncontrollable, easy to lay off weak pitch.  That pushes him to throw more fastballs, which have always been a less effective pitch for him.  His 4 seam has gone from 20% of his pitches the past 3 years to 30%.  he's also not drawing swings at balls is out of the strike zone.  Basically, no deception and no control of the slider pushing him to use less effective pitches.

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Patrick Corbin Consternation Thread
« Reply #35: April 16, 2021, 07:35:56 PM »
The box score in the dead tree WaPost says that last night's attendance was 6,666 so I think that poor Corbin was gaught in the grips of a manichaean struggle
your analysis makes as much sense as anything.

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Patrick Corbin Consternation Thread
« Reply #36: April 16, 2021, 07:38:06 PM »
Yeah, we got so lucky with Max that people forget most big money FA pitchers suck after a year or two.

Strasburg is down that path but re-signing him was always gonna happen after his playoff performance.
From Stras, would you settle for what the NYY got out of CC when they re-signed him?

Online GburgNatsFan

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Re: Patrick Corbin Consternation Thread
« Reply #37: April 16, 2021, 08:08:24 PM »
The box score in the dead tree WaPost says that last night's attendance was 6,666 so I think that poor Corbin was gaught in the grips of a manichaean struggle

There are no other posters here that make me check a dictionary.

Offline Five Banners

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Re: Patrick Corbin Consternation Thread
« Reply #38: April 16, 2021, 09:17:13 PM »
Everything wrong with the DMV in one sentence.

The Dodgers played 0 games before talking about winning another championship. Dombrowaski was fired within a year of his.

Offline bluestreak

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Re: Patrick Corbin Consternation Thread
« Reply #39: April 16, 2021, 10:38:25 PM »
Everything wrong with the DMV in one sentence.

The Dodgers played 0 games before talking about winning another championship. Dombrowaski was fired within a year of his.

Because what is said on a fan board has any effect on the organization.  :roll:

Offline aspenbubba

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Re: Patrick Corbin Consternation Thread
« Reply #40: April 21, 2021, 08:34:51 AM »
Though one game isn't going to change many minds I will issue my own "mea culpa". I hope it isn't premature.

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Pitching isn’t the problem tonight. For once.
I think FP mentioned that Davey came up with the idea for Corbin to ditch the changeup this outing.  He said that  the changeup was hurting the slider, cutting back on the spin rate.  When Corbin was pulled, Kolko gave a few stats about how his 2 seamer was more than 1 MPH faster this time out than last time, and how he doubled the swings and misses on his slider. 

Hickey is known for preaching the changeup, IIRC.  Maybe this is a permanent change that will get his stuff closer to 2019, which would be fine by me.  He really needs the slider.

Online GburgNatsFan

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Re: Patrick Corbin Consternation Thread
« Reply #42: April 21, 2021, 10:06:42 AM »
I thought Corbin was done.

Offline Smithian

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Re: Patrick Corbin Consternation Thread
« Reply #43: April 21, 2021, 11:03:32 AM »
One game is one game, but my consternation can begin to be alleviated by a repeat performance.

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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Re: Patrick Corbin Consternation Thread
« Reply #44: April 21, 2021, 03:20:55 PM »
I thought Corbin was done.

Rumors of his death are much exaggerated.

Online Slateman

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Re: Patrick Corbin Consternation Thread
« Reply #45: April 25, 2021, 02:18:39 PM »
Bump

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Patrick Corbin Consternation Thread
« Reply #46: April 25, 2021, 02:36:57 PM »
Rumors of his death are much exaggerated.
I agree. Dead men don't get hit like this

Offline USF_Football

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Re: Patrick Corbin Consternation Thread
« Reply #47: April 26, 2021, 03:29:28 AM »
The prediction thread asked which pitcher would be our worst. Corbin is coming up aces for me. The one time you want to be proven wrong...

Re: Patrick Corbin Consternation Thread
« Reply #48: April 26, 2021, 07:14:09 AM »
10.62ERA  :mg: :mg: how can we get rid of him?

Offline Copecwby20

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Re: Patrick Corbin Consternation Thread
« Reply #49: April 26, 2021, 08:16:53 AM »
10.62ERA  :mg: :mg: how can we get rid of him?


Is it weird if you take a heavy life insurance policy out on a player you don't know and start reaching out to friends from your spooky days?


This is an absolute joke by the way. They don't pay me enough to pick up a new insurance policy for some guy I don't know.