The Weather (2017)

[imref]

Oh, back to Harvey.  Cat 4 as of 7 PM EDT. 130 MPH winds. https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/hurricane-harvey-forecast-gulf-coast-texas-louisiana

Gusts to 160.  Latest NHC update says the storm will remain largely stationary for 120 hours once it makes landfall.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=CRP&product=HLS&issuedby=CRP

[imref]

Wunderground:

Steering currents will collapse during the weekend, leaving Harvey stranded somewhere near the central Texas coast or perhaps just inland for what could be several days. If anything, model guidance is stronger than ever on the notion that Harvey will stall for the better part of a week. The official NHC forecast issued at 4 pm CDT Friday weakens Harvey to tropical storm strength on Saturday, but keeps it within about 100 miles of Port O’Connor for the entire period through Tuesday, finally moving it slowly northeast toward the Houston area by Wednesday. There is virtually no precedent for such a slow-moving system maintaining at least tropical storm strength along the Texas coast for five days.

[imref]

Here's a good explanation for the crazy rain projections.  Here's the current Euro model for this coming Thursday:

[Mathguy]

Let's hope Houston-Nat made it to a safe place

[imref]

Let's hope Houston-Nat made it to a safe place

Yeah. Flooding in Houston is really bad and getting worse with reports of people going to their attics.

[Slateman]

they'll cut checks afterward assuming you're capable of wading through the regulations and paperwork to figure out how to request one.

That's what they used to do. But then Katrina happened and everyone was like "WHERE IS FEMA?!?!?!?" so now FEMA pretends that it is there for the response. In reality, they get in the way and complicate response at the state and local level.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/made-by-history/wp/2017/08/27/how-farmers-convinced-scientists-to-take-climate-change-seriously/?hpid=hp_regional-hp-cards_rhp-card-national%3Ahomepage%2Fcard

Gonna try this here, but the discussion is about how, in the 50s, farmers pushed for study of the effect of open testing of nukes and the climate.  Then, when open testing ended, scientists began to see the evidence of global warming. However, by the late 70s, in a down economy, environmental protection began to be pushed as an either or with jobs.  After that, there opposition to science became more of a cultural issue that could be debated rather than an exercise of so-called "experts."   

[imref]

Eric Berger @SpaceCityWX
To put this into perspective: Houston's third flash flood emergency of the night is coming soon. Four have been issued in total here, ever.

[HalfSmokes]

That's what they used to do. But then Katrina happened and everyone was like "WHERE IS FEMA?!?!?!?" so now FEMA pretends that it is there for the response. In reality, they get in the way and complicate response at the state and local level.

Seems like the national guard and coast guard are better equipped for that

[imref]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/08/27/texas-flood-disaster-harvey-has-unloaded-9-trillion-tons-of-water/

[Slateman]

Seems like the national guard and coast guard are better equipped for that

Yep. But for some reason, FEMA gets involved. . .

[imref]

Seems like the national guard and coast guard are better equipped for that

FEMA supports state operations, they don't replace them. The guard is quite active in Texas right now.

[Natsinpwc]

This describes the FEMA role; someone has to coordinate and provide the federal money.  And it's FEMA for better or worse.  I think FEMA has generally received good marks for natural disasters since Katrina.  However this one is so big that it will just overwhelm everyone.

As far as leaving it up to local authorities, the decision to not order an evacuation seems a major mistake.  I told you they should have been hightailing it out of there the other night instead of watching the Nats game.

https://www.fema.gov/pdf/about/programs/legislative/testimony/2011/10_12_2011_the_federal_role_in_disaster_recovery_and_response.pdf

[JCA-CrystalCity]

The difficulty is where do you evacuate 6+MM people in Harris County to?  Can't send them down the coast and can't send them to Austin / San Antonio.  Can't really send them east along the coast.  Only option is north.  Over what highways?  The ones that ended up flooded out?   They had a disastrous evacuation in '05 before Rita.  It isn't a clear call. 

[Natsinpwc]

The difficulty is where do you evacuate 6+MM people in Harris County to?  Can't send them down the coast and can't send them to Austin / San Antonio.  Can't really send them east along the coast.  Only option is north.  Over what highways?  The ones that ended up flooded out?   They had a disastrous evacuation in '05 before Rita.  It isn't a clear call.

You at least get some of the people out. Could have started it earlier but of course no one wants to do that in case the forecast changes. 

[varoadking]

You at least get some of the people out. Could have started it earlier but of course no one wants to do that in case the forecast changes.

They should have put the Learners in charge of the process...

[Natsinpwc]

They should have put the Learners in charge of the process...

Ouch

[HalfSmokes]

You at least get some of the people out. Could have started it earlier but of course no one wants to do that in case the forecast changes. 

If you could afford to leave and looked at the weather at all, you're probably in a hotel watching it on CNN now

[Natsinpwc]

If you could afford to leave and looked at the weather at all, you're probably in a hotel watching it on CNN now

No, most people stay.  Even if they order one. They think it won't happen because it hasn't happened to them lately.

[imref]

You at least get some of the people out. Could have started it earlier but of course no one wants to do that in case the forecast changes. 

How are you going to get the two million people living in the flood plain out?

Just saw the latest forecast on CNN, Harvey is heading back out to to the gulf, then curving back toward Houston. Projections are another 40-50" of rain. There's just no words to describe this.

[Natsinpwc]

How are you going to get the two million people living in the flood plain out?

Just saw the latest forecast on CNN, Harvey is heading back out to to the gulf, then curving back toward Houston. Projections are another 40-50" of rain. There's just no words to describe this.

You get some out; every little but helps.

[HalfSmokes]

You get some out; every little but helps.

Unless you have a massive traffic jam when it hits, then you get a few out and have far more deaths. I lived in charleston when Floyd was supposed to hit directly - it shifted last minute, but if it didn't it would have smacked into I26 turned into a multi lane parking lot

[Natsinpwc]

Unless you have a massive traffic jam when it hits, then you get a few out and have far more deaths. I lived in charleston when Floyd was supposed to hit directly - it shifted last minute, but if it didn't it would have smacked into I26 turned into a multi lane parking lot

Other than those on the coast most of the damage is from the rain and has really hit them a day or two after the initial storm.  They could have evacuated while they could and then shut her down.  Why have evacuation routes at all then? People should have been told to leave Wednesday.

[Slateman]

This describes the FEMA role; someone has to coordinate and provide the federal money.  And it's FEMA for better or worse.  I think FEMA has generally received good marks for natural disasters since Katrina.  However this one is so big that it will just overwhelm everyone.

As far as leaving it up to local authorities, the decision to not order an evacuation seems a major mistake.  I told you they should have been hightailing it out of there the other night instead of watching the Nats game.

https://www.fema.gov/pdf/about/programs/legislative/testimony/2011/10_12_2011_the_federal_role_in_disaster_recovery_and_response.pdf

This is why: http://heavy.com/news/2017/08/why-wasnt-houston-evacuated-mandatory-evacuation-issued-sylvester-turner-ed-emmett-abbott-trump-hurricane-harvey/

Other than those on the coast most of the damage is from the rain and has really hit them a day or two after the initial storm.  They could have evacuated while they could and then shut her down.  Why have evacuation routes at all then? People should have been told to leave Wednesday.

The evacuation would have had to have started two or three weeks ago. We're talking about 2 million people here.

[Natsinpwc]

This is why: http://heavy.com/news/2017/08/why-wasnt-houston-evacuated-mandatory-evacuation-issued-sylvester-turner-ed-emmett-abbott-trump-hurricane-harvey/

The evacuation would have had to have started two or three weeks ago. We're talking about 2 million people here.

Most people don't leave when they order evacuations anyway. I'm just saying they would have gotten some people out of there making rescue efforts slightly easier.