The Weather (2017)

[mitlen]

Ouch

[varoadking]

I'll be in Greer, SC from the 6th until the morning of 9th...and then in Raleigh on the 9th...coming home that evening.

This could make for some congested roads...and gas shortages...not to mention some wind and rain at home...

[JCA-CrystalCity]

latest Euro:

i have tickets for 9/12.  that forecast is through 12 AM 9/12. Is that GMT or EDT?

[imref]

i have tickets for 9/12.  that forecast is through 12 AM 9/12. Is that GMT or EDT?

I think gmt but not 100% sure.

[varoadking]

I think gmt but not 100% sure.

Zulu is GMT...

[mitlen]

Zulu is GMT...

Good ARMY training   

[imref]

Good ARMY training   

[imref]

latest GFS and Euro have converged on Irma hitting around Wilmington NC.  Still about 7-8 days out though.

[varoadking]

latest GFS and Euro have converged on Irma hitting around Wilmington NC.  Still about 7-8 days out though.

That poor place always gets hit...and when the open the flood gates, the city always...well...floods...

[imref]

latest Euro. 

[Ali the Baseball Cat]

The only thing that splatter tells me is that surf's up in Puerto Rico in a couple of days. 

[GburgNatsFan]

Good ARMY training   

http://youtu.be/FOzub_ghAbM?t=8s

[mitlen]

http://youtu.be/FOzub_ghAbM?t=8s

Um, that's a movie.   

[Slateman]

http://youtu.be/FOzub_ghAbM?t=8s

Your head isnt supposed to move on port arms

[imref]

Latest models shift Irma south, potentially hitting the keys / Miami as a cat 5.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Latest models shift Irma south, potentially hitting the keys / Miami as a cat 5.

Reforming in the gulf or going up the coast?  Timing?

[Ali the Baseball Cat]

On its current course it looks like it would score a direct hit on Havana.  Like they need any more trouble. 

[Natsinpwc]

On its current course it looks like it would score a direct hit on Havana.  Like they need any more trouble.

Karma for audio wave shenanigans.

[Mathguy]

Both the GFS & Euro models still look pretty random - Irma could go anywhere

[imref]

On its current course it looks like it would score a direct hit on Havana.  Like they need any more trouble. 

ironically, that's a best case scenario for the US as Cuba would tear the storm up quite a bit.  By Wednesday we should have a pretty good idea of where this is actually going. 

[imref]

latest NHC track:

[JCA-CrystalCity]

GFS seems to favor a more westerly path than the Euro.  GFS points to a west coast mid-peninsula landing as its median, while the Euro has a mostly  hitting South Florida and then carolinas paths.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/09/04/its-becoming-more-likely-hurricane-irma-will-at-least-affect-u-s-if-not-make-landfall/?hpid=hp_rhp-top-table-main_cwg-irma-155pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory

[imref]

Latest runs are painting a worst case scenario for FL, landfall south of Miami, then turning north. It's now a cat 4 storm and will likely make it to cat 5.  The best hope for FL is that it gets torn up by Cuba.

Worth a read:  http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/why-the-city-of-miami-is-doomed-to-drown-20130620

[DPMOmaha]

And the Nats are in Miami right as this thing is about to come into town. Wonder if this could impact things this week. This is the most trivial part of the weather event...

[Ali the Baseball Cat]

I was there for Andrew...that was a crapshow.  I can't imaging what landfall at high tide and 25 miles north would have done (other than drowned many thousands of people)

Latest runs are painting a worst case scenario for FL, landfall south of Miami, then turning north. It's now a cat 4 storm and will likely make it to cat 5.  The best hope for FL is that it gets torn up by Cuba.

Worth a read:  http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/why-the-city-of-miami-is-doomed-to-drown-20130620