The Weather (2017)

[mitlen]

My sister and BiL had reservations at Hilton Head next week.    Because of the early "tracks", they cancelled and decided to go to Asheville, NC.    The latest "track" shows Irma headin' up through GA to W. NC.     It shouldn't be much by then but it'll ruin the view.

[skippy1999]

That's a good point.    Serious question:    What is a reasonable time and/or number of heavy duty hurricanes that would give one a link?     What other factors should be included?    Rising sea water?    Melting ice caps?      Thanks

The warm waters fuel the hurricanes but I mean, we haven't had a major hurricane in over a decade and they say the waters get warmer every year, so why haven't we had one in so long? I get there are other factors but still, hurricanes to me have always seemed cyclical, one hits here every 10-15 years or so and then it's dormant for awhile, just seems to be the way it's gone for a long long time.

[skippy1999]

I think my cousin and my (other) cousin's husband left Miami Beach for Naples with my 90+ year old uncle who had 2 strokes a couple months ago.

Oh jeez JCA that stinks, hopefully it'll move again and keep them out of harm's way

[JCA-CrystalCity]

The warm waters fuel the hurricanes but I mean, we haven't had a major hurricane in over a decade and they say the waters get warmer every year, so why haven't we had one in so long?

There's been major atlantic hurricanes the past decade, it's just none have made US landfall. 

[mitlen]

The warm waters fuel the hurricanes but I mean, we haven't had a major hurricane in over a decade and they say the waters get warmer every year, so why haven't we had one in so long? I get there are other factors but still, hurricanes to me have always seemed cyclical, one hits here every 10-15 years or so and then it's dormant for awhile, just seems to be the way it's gone for a long long time.

As a W. PA boy, I don't have any direct experiences with hurricanes, rising water levels or melting ice caps.    I'm not usually a nervous Nellie but this stuff concerns me.    Of course, it probably won't affect me long term.          I know there's no nailin' it down but when/how will we know?

[skippy1999]

There's been major atlantic hurricanes the past decade, it's just none have made US landfall. 

Yea but not like they've predicted, every year they predict it to be more active than normal and every year about halfway through when nothing's happened they revise their predictions, after Katrina you'd have thought it was going to happen on a yearly basis and that just wasn't the case. 

[skippy1999]

As a W. PA boy, I don't have any direct experiences with hurricanes, rising water levels or melting ice caps.    I'm not usually a nervous Nellie but this stuff concerns me.   I know there's no nailin' it down but when/how will we know?

Know what?

[mitlen]

Know what?

That's there's a long term problem.

[skippy1999]

That's there's a long term problem.

ah gotcha.  Well some people say we already know, others say no we don't, depends who you're listening to I guess.

[HalfSmokes]

I think we know there's a problem, just not what it's symptoms actually are yet

[Mathguy]

What are they saying for the FL panhandle ?  How about the possible storm surge & flooding ?

ah gotcha.  Well some people say we already know, others say no we don't, depends who you're listening to I guess.

[skippy1999]

What are they saying for the FL panhandle ?

All's quiet on the storm front here

[imref]

Yea but not like they've predicted, every year they predict it to be more active than normal and every year about halfway through when nothing's happened they revise their predictions, after Katrina you'd have thought it was going to happen on a yearly basis and that just wasn't the case. 

The global warming researchers repeatedly say that AGW won't lead to more hurricanes, but it will lead to stronger storms - exactly what we've seen over the last 15-20 years now.  Average precipitation levels continue to increase.

Worth a read:
https://www.sciencefriday.com/segments/hurricane-harvey-and-the-new-normal/

[HalfSmokes]

The global warming researchers repeatedly say that AGW won't lead to more hurricanes, but it will lead to stronger storms - exactly what we've seen over the last 15-20 years now.  Average precipitation levels continue to increase.

Worth a read:
https://www.sciencefriday.com/segments/hurricane-harvey-and-the-new-normal/

So we expect to see most of the strongest hurricanes popping up in the last few years?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Atlantic_hurricane_records#Intensity

[bluestreak]

I think we know there's a problem, just not what it's symptoms actually are yet

If you’ve read a history of the AIDS epidemic, it seems very similar to this. We know there is some problem, we can’t explain it, but a lot of the scientific community has a good idea based on all available evidence and expertise. Political considerations and those on the other side call for more data or outright deny there is a significant problem. Real action is delayed and the time to act and make a difference passes. By the time there is definitive cause/explanation, the problem has spiraled out of control. By the time the tide is eventually stemmed there has been untold human suffering.

I don’t know if we could have stopped AIDS spreading like it did. Maybe it was an inevitability. But I wish we had thrown everything we had at it when it was a small problem.

[Natsinpwc]

If you’ve read a history of the AIDS epidemic, it seems very similar to this. We know there is some problem, we can’t explain it, but a lot of the scientific community has a good idea based on all available evidence and expertise. Political considerations and those on the other side call for more data or outright deny there is a significant problem. Real action is delayed and the time to act and make a difference passes. By the time there is definitive cause/explanation, the problem has spiraled out of control. By the time the tide is eventually stemmed there has been untold human suffering.

I don’t know if we could have stopped AIDS spreading like it did. Maybe it was an inevitability. But I wish we had thrown everything we had at it when it was a small problem.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2012/jan/16/greenhouse-gases-remain-air


One of the problems with global warming and modeling is that we really don't know how long CO2 lasts in the atmosphere. The quote in this article notes that 65-85 percent dissipates over a period of 20-200 years. Think about how imprecise that is and what a difference the times make. It makes sense to take actions now because we know for a definite fact that CO2 is a greenhouse gas and we have been putting tons of it in the atmosphere since the industrial revolution. Climate modelers generally agree the planet is warming and it's likely due to us. Probably too late at this point to prevent major warming over the next 50-100 years.

[mitlen]

If you’ve read a history of the AIDS epidemic, it seems very similar to this. We know there is some problem, we can’t explain it, but a lot of the scientific community has a good idea based on all available evidence and expertise. Political considerations and those on the other side call for more data or outright deny there is a significant problem. Real action is delayed and the time to act and make a difference passes. By the time there is definitive cause/explanation, the problem has spiraled out of control. By the time the tide is eventually stemmed there has been untold human suffering.

I don’t know if we could have stopped AIDS spreading like it did. Maybe it was an inevitability. But I wish we had thrown everything we had at it when it was a small problem.

I don't wanna get political but I think we know why AIDS was not aggressively fought.    It was the gay community.   It was the drug users and poor communities in the US and the world.       Then, when it spread beyond those communities through the world  ....  it became a problem that needed to be addressed.      I think that's a similarity here as well.     Most folks don't think it's affecting them.    Therefore, it's not a problem.     Even then, I don't think there's a will to change the way we do business to slow it down.

[Slateman]

So we expect to see most of the strongest hurricanes popping up in the last few years?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Atlantic_hurricane_records#Intensity

Half of them are in this century. Irma is stronger than all of them.

[mitlen]

Half of them are in this century. Irma is stronger than all of them.

Tipping point?

[HalfSmokes]

Half of them are in this century. Irma is stronger than all of them.

And none in the last decade if you go by pressure, 1 if you go by sustained wind speed

[HalfSmokes]

http://money.cnn.com/2017/09/08/media/rush-limbaugh-evacuates-hurricane-irma/index.html

[mitlen]

http://money.cnn.com/2017/09/08/media/rush-limbaugh-evacuates-hurricane-irma/index.html

There's some low hangin' fruit in that story.   

[Slateman]

And none in the last decade if you go by pressure, 1 if you go by sustained wind speed

Except Irma, which exceeds them all in both

[Minty Fresh]

Wouldn't have had to worry about Jose so much if they had erected Trump's wall.

Played trivia at the local pub a couple of nights ago.  The team that won best team name called themselves:

"Hurricane Jose - The Only Mexican to Breach Trump's Wall."     

[Minty Fresh]

I'm a fan of leaving it to the guys with the phds who've spent their lives studying the topic. It seems like the consensus is shifting weather patterns and more storm activity, but as far as hurricanes go, anyone reading a pattern into that data set needs to read a random walk down Wall Street


https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-tropical-cyclone-activity

This might be the smartest quote on the internet.  If you listen to ANY politician honk on about climate change and then take their word as gospel then you're as empty as Slateman.