10/11 offseason

[Potomac Cannons]

Let's start with the status of the current 40 man roster and 60 day DL guys. (Using Cot's Baseball Contracts)

Pitchers:
Luis Atilano (60 Day DL)
Collin Balester
Miguel Batista (FA)
Joe Bisenius
Sean Burnett (Arbitration)
Matt Chico (Arbitration)
Tyler Clippard
Ross Detwiler
Jesse English
Livan Hernandez
Juan Jaime
John Lannan (Arbitration)
Jason Marquis
J.D. Martin (60 Day DL)
Shairon Martis
Ryan Mattheus
Yunesky Maya
Garrett Mock
Scott Olsen (Arbitration)
Joel Peralta (FA?)
Atahualpa Severino
Doug Slaten
Craig Stammen
Drew Storen
Stephen Strasburg (60 Day DL)
Aaron Thompson
Tyler Walker (60 Day DL/Arbitration)
Chien-Ming Wang (60 Day DL/Arbitration)
Jordan Zimmermann

Catchers:
Jesus Flores (60 Day DL/Arbitration)
Wil Nieves (Arbitration)
Wilson Ramos
Ivan Rodriguez

Infielders:
Ian Desmond
Adam Dunn (FA)
Danny Espinosa
Alberto Gonzalez (Arbitration?)
Adam Kennedy (Team Option 2m salary or .5m buyout)
Ryan Zimmerman

Outfielders:
Roger Bernadina
Bryce Harper
Willie Harris (FA)
Justin Maxwell
Kevin Mench (FA?)
Nyjer Morgan
Michael Morse (Arbitration)
Josh Willingham (60 Day DL/Arbitration)

It seems obvious that Willingham comes back from the 60 Day DL and simply slots into the position being vacated by Willie.  Hopefully Mench is gone as well.  Martin and Walker will likely get offered arbitration, and as long as everything works out in the Nats favor, will be brought back to the 40 man.

I would guess that the most likely guys to be in the conversation to be removed from the 40 man, other than the 3 definite FAs, are Bisenius, Mattheus, Olsen, Thompson, Nieves, Kennedy and Mench.  Don't be surprised if Morgan is gone.

7 open spots, with some internal filling (Wilkie etc.), should allow for a good move at 1B, an upgrade to the corner OF/OF depth, and maybe a SP if a good one slips through the cracks.

At this point, if the FAs file, the team looks something like this:
C-Ramos
1B-???
2B-Espinosa
3B-Zimmerman
SS-Desmond
LF-Willingham
CF-Bernadina
RF-Morse
Bench-Rodriguez, Gonzalez, Morgan, Maxwell

SP-Zimmermann
SP-Hernandez
SP-Lannan
SP-Marquis
SP-Detwiler
RP-Walker
RP-Stammen
RP-Slaten
RP-Clippard
RP-Burnett
RP-Peralta
RP-Storen

Keeping Dunn and adding a corner OF makes a huge difference. 

I think the team offers Dunn arbitration, sees him refuse and file for FA, then resigns him once the market prices him down.  I'm about 60/40 or more that Dunn stays eventually. 

That brings up Crawford/Werth for an OF spot moving either Maxwell or Morgan out of the picture.  I expect Morgan to be the one to go.  The market shouldn't go crazy for both corner OF but a trade may be the better option (especially if a Rasmus caliber player is available).  I'm not convinced that David DeJesus gets his option picked up in KC.  Same goes for Coco Crisp in Oakland.  More options prices down the market there as well.

I wouldn't be surprised to see someone like Matt Chico paired with someone else surplus to the 40 man roster to acquire another MI backup.

There are a bunch of good enough SPs that should be on the market with the potential for a couple more arms, like Arroyo and Harang in Cincinnati, being bought out.  I wouldn't be surprised if the Nats picked one up, once 1B/OF are taken care of, after the first wave have signed and someone gets desperate to sign a one year deal and "prove" everyone else wrong.  It would be nice if the Syracuse rotation consisted of Maya-Detwiler-Martin-Milone-Martis/Mock due to a FA signing.

I would expect a few names like Wilkie, Carr, Milone, Burgess, Norris etc. to move onto the 40 man at some point next year.

Here's my best guess of what we'll see as the Nationals next season:

C-Ramos
1B-Dunn
2B-Espinosa
SS-Desmond
3B-Zimmerman
LF-Willingham
CF-Crisp
RF-Bernadina
Bench-1B/RF Morse, C-Rodriguez, OF-Maxwell, MI-Gonzalez, MI-Trade acquisition

SP-Zimmermann
SP-Hernandez
SP-Lannan
SP-Marquis
SP-FA (Bonderman/De La Rosa/Lilly/Pavano/Westbrook)

RP-Walker
RP-Stammen
RP-Slaten
RP-Clippard
RP-Burnett
RP-Peralta
RP-Storen

That seems reasonable and doable.  It gets rid of Morgan, keeps 1B strong, strengthens the OF, adds more depth, and improves the rotation.  You can switch Bernadina and Morse if Roger doesn't get his bat up to a .750 OPS with .350 of it in OBP.  You see what happens with the FA SP and make moves for 2012 accordingly once you find out how well/quickly Strasburg is healing.

[cmdterps44]

I like your insight. This is how I view the team. However, I hope the Nats remove some of the players on their 40 man roster to make room for some others that deserve a random call up in the future. I think your predicted lineup seems pretty reasonable. I hope we don't get Crisp though. I hope somehow we trade for DeJesus in the offseason and place him in CF if we were to rely on that. Honestly, I would love to see us get Crawford/Werth over anything else right now.

[Minty Fresh]

I hope the team strives for better than Coco Crisp as a FA signing in the OF.  I'm not a big fan of Crisp's bat and if you're looking for a defensive CFer, can't Bernadina or Maxwell take the position and go out and sign Werth to play RF?  That way, we get the decent bat and let Bernadina or Maxwell continue to try and improve?

I also like the idea of going after only one free agent SP.  With Strasburg waiting in the wings there's no need to bust a nut this year with what's out there.  If you can get one of Pavano/Bonderman/Westbrook and go with that rotation we'll be better than this year.  Might be worth it to pick up another closer like we did with Capps and roll it into a trade again next year.

Other than that I like Cannons' roster makeup given the reasonable expectations of what this team can accomplish over the course of one off-season. 

[NatsDad14]

Sign Javier Vasquez

[Minty Fresh]

Sign Javier Vasquez

I hope that's sarcasm.

[NatsDad14]

I hope that's sarcasm.

He's an NL player. He's the type of reclamation project we can sign for 1 year.

[Minty Fresh]

He's an NL player. He's the type of reclamation project we can sign for 1 year.

I don't want 1-year reclamation projects.  I want long-term, sustainable success.  Javier Vasquez doesn't fit that mold.

[NatsDad14]

I don't want 1-year reclamation projects.  I want long-term, sustainable success.  Javier Vasquez doesn't fit that mold.

Who is out there other than Lee who fits that mold? I would prefer the one year route so that we aren't burdened by a failed SP (Jason Marquis). In 2012, Strasburg and Zimmermann are locks. That is only 3 spots needed to be locked up and we can use free agency next year to do it.

[hammondsnats]

lol potomac.

C-Ramos
1B-Dunn
2B-Espinosa
SS-Desmond
3B-Zimmerman
LF-Willingham
CF-Crisp
RF-Bernadina

say hello to 64-98

[Minty Fresh]

Who is out there other than Lee who fits that mold? I would prefer the one year route so that we aren't burdened by a failed SP (Jason Marquis). In 2012, Strasburg and Zimmermann are locks. That is only 3 spots needed to be locked up and we can use free agency next year to do it.

You don't think Bonderman or Pavano or even to a certain extent, Westbrook can't have long-term success?  I think so and I think they can have better success than Vazquez.

[NatsDad14]

You don't think Bonderman or Pavano or even to a certain extent, Westbrook can't have long-term success?  I think so and I think they can have better success than Vazquez.

When have those guys ever proven themselves for 2 or 3 straight seasons? Vasquez has had a lot more success than those guys.

[Minty Fresh]

lol potomac.

say hello to 64-98

The only thing I really don't like is Crisp.  If we're going to pursue a free agent (and I mean OTHER than Dunn) we need to go after a bat.  We have guys who can play defense in CF but we need a power bat at RF and I think Werth fits the bill.  Assuming Willingham can play an entire season, I'd love to see a 3-6 of Zimmerman, Dunn, Werth and Willingham.  If we can get that and either Bernadina, Desmond or Espinosa can hit 1-2 we'll have a really good lineup. 

The pitching is what needs the most work and I like the idea of the pitchers he suggests but my only caution would be that I'm not sure one SP is enough.

[Minty Fresh]

When have those guys ever proven themselves for 2 or 3 straight seasons? Vasquez has had a lot more success than those guys.

Fair enough.  But if you're talking about a one-year reclamation project like you want, Bonderman, Pavano and/or Westbrook are better options than Vazquez because the ceilings are higher.

[PANatsFan]

When have those guys ever proven themselves for 2 or 3 straight seasons? Vasquez has had a lot more success than those guys.

Pavano has had 2 very good seasons in a row.

[NatsDad14]

Fair enough.  But if you're talking about a one-year reclamation project like you want, Bonderman, Pavano and/or Westbrook are better options than Vazquez because the ceilings are higher.

I don't see how their ceilings are higher considering Vasquez was one of the best pitchers in the NL just last year. Bonderman has never had a season under 4 ERA while Vasquez under 3 just last year. Pavano has had a good year this year, but I'm pretty sure a lot of it just luck and a good defense. He has never pitched like this before in his career.

[NatsDad14]

Pavano has had 2 very good seasons in a row.

He had a 5.10 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP last year. Hardly a great season.

[DPMOmaha]

lol potomac.

say hello to 64-98

I'm with Minty.  I think that could be a very good lineup except for Crisp.  It'd be about the starting pitching and whether or not they could not have a season like they've had this year collectively.  It's not going to win a world series next year, but it is a pretty good lineup and should set us up for a good 2012 with what should be a large portion of your core beyond next year.

[NatsDad14]

I'm with Minty.  I think that could be a very good lineup except for Crisp.  It'd be about the starting pitching and whether or not they could not have a season like they've had this year collectively.  It's not going to win a world series next year, but it is a pretty good lineup and should set us up for a good 2012 with what should be a large portion of your core beyond next year.

That's basically the same lineup as this year. Ramos and Espinosa are going to produce at a rate somewhat comparable to the catchers and 2B we had this year. They aren't some huge upgrade next year. I doubt any of those 2 can actually get a .300 OBP for next season, let alone a league average OBP. Crisp is a bum.

[hammondsnats]

I'm with Minty.  I think that could be a very good lineup except for Crisp.  It'd be about the starting pitching and whether or not they could not have a season like they've had this year collectively.  It's not going to win a world series next year, but it is a pretty good lineup and should set us up for a good 2012 with what should be a large portion of your core beyond next year.

obviously crisp is the black eye - although i still have my doubts about bernadina - but that line-up looks awfully familiar.  granted we'll get more of willingham/ramos/espinosa, i still think we need some work.  it'd be great if we could work a trade for dejesus and sign crawford/werth.  be a much better line-up.

[DPMOmaha]

That's basically the same lineup as this year. Ramos and Espinosa are going to produce at a rate somewhat comparable to the catchers and 2B we had this year. They aren't some huge upgrade next year. I doubt any of those 2 can actually get a .300 OBP for next season, let alone a league average OBP. Crisp is a bum.

Where did I say anything about huge upgrades?  I don't think the offense needs huge upgrades.  I don't think the lineup is our problem, it's the depth behind the lineup that concerns me more. 

If we resign Dunn I really like that infield long term.  Getting Hammer back and healthy will be huge.  I don't like Bernidina in RF, I'd rather move him to CF and bring in someone for RF.  I think Espin will be a pretty significant upgrade from the Guz/Kennedy mess we had there this year, (whether it's by him staying or flipping or Desmond for something else eventually).

My offseason priorities.  Sign Dunn.  Upgrade one outfield spot.  Build depth on the bench are my non-pitching priorities this year.

[HalfSmokes]

The lineup shouldn't be the problem (then again every year I think our offense will be ok, so who knows), the roation is horrendous. I won't quibble with Zimmermann, he should return to form, but a 2-4 of Lannan, Marquis, and Livan is asking for another 100 losses

[CatsEye]

My offseason priorities.  Sign Dunn.  Upgrade one outfield spot.  Build depth on the bench are my non-pitching priorities this year.

             I am beginning to think more and more that Morse is not for the OF. He just can't dive and run as well as I think a player should be in the OF. I see Bernadina in RF, I see Werth in CF or a FA, and Willimingham in LF. I still see Willie Harris & Maxwell as the OF Back-up. I see Morse & Dunn alternately playing 1b, Desmond as 2b, and Espinosa as SS, and I see Ryan on 3B. (Note: I switched Desmond & Espinosa, because of Desmond's 33 errors so far this season - too may errors in SS position - switch him and Espinosa, position-wise, and see what happens). As for pitchers, I see them as the big trading chip (Major & Minor League) that will be offered on the trading block this season....
       Bullpen -Petrat, Clippard, Burnett, Storen, Slaten - keepers. Trade the rest.
       Starters - Livo, Lannan, Jordan, Strasburg -5th position up for grabs.
       Catchers - Ramos, Rodriquez, (upcoming Norris?)
   That's about as far as I've gotten, of course it we got Crawford, that would change the dynamics of the line-up.
                                                                                                                               

[HalfSmokes]

       Starters - ..., Strasburg -...       

he's out next year, would be nice though

[Lintyfresh85]

Sign Javier Vasquez

How many times do I have to tell you that he has lost 3 MPH on his fastball this year? He had been at 91 since 2005, and this year he drops to 88.

He's done.

[PANatsFan]

He had a 5.10 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP last year. Hardly a great season.

1.38 WHIP would make him ACE here.