- Zimmermann is a rookie pitcher recovering from serious surgery. He has to strengthen his arm and learn to pitch in the majors. No sure thing.
- Lannan is an adequate pitcher when he's on target. He's pitched enough that we can say he's a "probable"
- Marquis is awful. Maybe he'll be better than I expect...
- the rest of the starters are guys we saw too much in 2010.
If the team fails to sign Dunn, if the team fails to sign an ace starter, then 2011 look like 2010 only worse.
- C: Ramos + Pudge . OK, probably
- 3B: Zimmerman. The spot of quality.
- SS: Desmond. Hits like a 2B, fields like a 2B, but plays SS.
- 2B: Espinosa. Fields like a SS, doesn't hit. Eddie Brinkman with a heavy swing. Put him at SS, and the Nats will have some defense, even with a .225 hitter.
- 1B: <a good-fielding veteran to be named later>
- LF: Willingham. At least half a season a good hitting and decent fielding
- CF: Morgan or Bernadina. Neither should start, but somebody has to take the position.
- RF: Morse plus hope. We hope he continues to hit.
Bench: AGon IF plus Morgan or Bernadina OF. Not much depth, unless they move Morse to 1B, keep Bernadina in RF, and have no reserve at all. It's really bad when Justin Maxwell is the September reinforcement(s).
Youth? If so many players have been in the minors for so long that they are liable to be Rule 5-ers, then the farm system is filled with guys who look a lot like Kory Casto. No, I'm not convinced when someone tells me that a guy in AA hit .270 so "help is on the way".
Zimmermann is a #1 SP who is returning from TJ surgery which nearly everyone recovers from with no side effects these days. He's on exactly the pace he should be and should be counted on to be dominant by the middle of 2011.
Lannan was excellent upon return. I say that as someone highly skeptical of him but he earned his spot for next year unless something goes horribly wrong in the spring.
Marquis was the best pitcher on the team in September. Health was the only problem. He's been good for quite a while now and there's no reason to expect him not to remain that way next year.
The rest of the starters are likely Livan who pitched way better than we had reason to expect, Maya who pitched after more than a year layoff, and Detwiler who is still young and battled injuries. If Rizzo gets the front of the rotation SP he's targeted as the #1 priority that means only 1 of them gets a spot. That's a big upgrade over what we ran out there for most of 2010 since guys like Martin, Stammen, and Atilano aren't even in the mix (and I think Martin and Stammen could fill out the back of a rotation if healthy and left alone).
C is a big upgrade with Ramos taking all of Nieves time and some of Pudge's time.
3B is the best in the majors.
SS is Desmond's to lose. If he just cuts out the errors on easy plays he's a big value going forward. His range is clearly SS worthy. If he doesn't cut out the errors then I think he gets dealt with Espinosa moving to SS and Lombardozzi pushing into 2B at the end of the season.
Espinosa doesn't hit? He's hit at every level despite not getting as much time at AAA as he should have. He struggled a bit and still put up a .723 OPS (24th among 2B who had as many PAs as he did). His OBP was about .070 below his AA and AAA level but his SLG was right in line with the minors. There's no reason not to expect a decent uptick in OBP to drive that up higher and he's got pop from both sides of the plate. He's just 23 and just a .035 bump in OBP, half of what he lost from AA/AAA, puts him in the top 15 offensively at 2B.
1B is interesting. Dunn is obviously the best option. Morse plus a LH veteran is a good option as long as a top OF is brought in via FA or trade.
You nailed LF. I just hope he's healthy enough to trade for high value in July before he inevitably gets hurt.
I'm interested in seeing if Roger can put a full year together. His July was excellent. August was good. May and June were mediocre and September was abysmal. If he could consistently play somewhere in the .750+ OPS range with his defense in CF he'd be a solid starter.
Morse earned the shot in RF unless we go for Werth there and move him to 1st. I don't see why he wouldn't be able to be an adequate defender and his bat should continue to be good with enough opportunity.
The bench is okay with one excellent IF in AlGo. I'm really hoping we grab a CF like Crisp or DeJesus and Roger ends up the 4th OF as that would be a good role for him. JMax is a great 5th OF with his defense and baserunning. Whichever C is on the bench is better than Nieves so that's an upgrade. One more quality IF backup and that bench would look good (I would love to land someone like Bill Hall).
It's just crazy to question the youth in the system now. This isn't Jim Bowden tooting his own horn. These are guys being recognized as legitimate prospects and guys who are performing very well at every level. If you think .270 at AA is what anyone here is talking about then you're completely clueless about what is finally in the system. Two legitimate SP prospects should start at AAA next year (Milone and Meyers), 2B has out best candidate for a leadoff hitter in house with Lombardozzi who gets on at a .370+ OBP rate at every level so far, and C has Norris whose defense improved greatly this year, whose bat is exceptional for his position, and who is one of the best overall prospects in the game (not just our system). Those are 4 legitimate prospects who should be contributors, not just roster fillers, at the MLB level. I'm not sure if 4 guys of that quality have been this far advanced in the system since the team moved here. Guys like Casto and Maxwell never showed the kind of positional value in the high minors that these guys have and have never been considered amongst the best prospects in the game.
