10/11 offseason

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Welch - looking at the link you provided, I looked at Pavano's florida and minnesota numbers.  The optimists about Pavano will point out the 3:1 K/BB ratio, the WHIP under 1.25, and the sub-4 ERA, and say he has learned how to pitch, and is healthy now.

[Potomac Cannons]

Welch - looking at the link you provided, I looked at Pavano's florida and minnesota numbers.  The optimists about Pavano will point out the 3:1 K/BB ratio, the WHIP under 1.25, and the sub-4 ERA, and say he has learned how to pitch, and is healthy now.

That's realist, not optimist.  The optimist assumes he'll remain healthy and not show age regression yet.

[KnorrForYourMoney]

I wouldn't mind going for Pavano, but he should be a secondary acquisition.  There's no reason not to get that "ace" along with him.

Besides, if you go into next season with Garza/Shields, Lannan, a healthy Zimmermann getting back into gear, a healthy Pavano, and a healthy Marquis, the Nats could be very interesting.

[Potomac Cannons]

Yunesky Maya with a 2nd start in the Domincan League today.  5 IP, 5 H, 2 BB, 4 K, 2 ER.  That's one really good start and one solid start so far.  Hope this guy tears it up and gives us a 2m/yr middle to back of the rotation SP for 3 years.

[welch]

Welch - looking at the link you provided, I looked at Pavano's florida and minnesota numbers.  The optimists about Pavano will point out the 3:1 K/BB ratio, the WHIP under 1.25, and the sub-4 ERA, and say he has learned how to pitch, and is healthy now.

Look at Pavano over a longer stretch. He had a fine year before his disastrous three years with the Yankess-- and three years is a long time to have a series of injuries -- and a very short time afterward.

His post-Yankees pitching is "too little too late": one adequate season on a good team. His career suggests a mediocre pitcher who got to NY and collapsed, and had an OK season this year. He had a good season in 2004 and another in 2010. Otherwise, he looks mediocre: WHIP around 1.375. His ERA is around 4.50 and 5. The only stat that's encouraging is his KK/BB: roughly 956 to 377 over his whole career, but that's as good as he gets. He loses almost as many as he wins. Pavano will be 35. Nothing eye-catching.

Take away the two decent seasons, and Pavano has been lousy over about 15 seasons.

[welch]

The Giants rotation is quite interesting.  Their SPs did lead the league in K/9.  They were 24th in BB/9.  WHIP was tied for 3rd.  8th in FIP and 10th in xFIP.  WAR put them 3rd. 

Looking at individuals they seem to be helped most by simple consistency.  Two guys top 5 in K/9 and one more top 35.  One top 10 WHIP and one more top 35.  One top 15 FIP and one more top 35.  One top 5 xFIP and one more top 50.  One top 15 WAR and one more top 30. 

They had mostly really good team pitching numbers but none of their guys was an ace this year.  I'd say their pitching has actually been better, in terms of individual performances (especially Lincecum), prior to this season.  It really looks like the strongest point was consistent good pitching from their top guys and being healthy enough to only use 7 SPs during the season and being the only team with 4 SP who had 30+ starts.

If the Twins had an elite offense this year, did that help Pavano with his generally mediocre pitching?

[Coladar]

I noticed on MLB Trade Rumors, David Eckstein won't be back in SD. What are the odds he signs with the Nats as a bench player due to obvious connections with the club? I can't imagine there will be a ton of interest in Eckstein this offseason, so I have to imagine it's a possibility.

[Potomac Cannons]

I noticed on MLB Trade Rumors, David Eckstein won't be back in SD. What are the odds he signs with the Nats as a bench player due to obvious connections with the club? I can't imagine there will be a ton of interest in Eckstein this offseason, so I have to imagine it's a possibility.

I definitely see someone signing as an extra backup IF.  Eckstein would be a nice fit and would allow the team to limit AlGo's offensive appearances even more.

[Potomac Cannons]

If the Twins had an elite offense this year, did that help Pavano with his generally mediocre pitching?

You do realize that things like W/L that you cite so often are the kinds of stats affected by offensive output right?  Meanwhile, things like FIP, xFIP, WAR etc. allow for no influence from offense or defense and actually just measure pitching.  Of course, those don't support the asinine idea that Pavano is a "mediocre" pitcher and place his actual pitching performance in the top third of the league his last 4 healthy years.

[comish4lif]

You do realize that things like W/L that you cite so often are the kinds of stats affected by offensive output right?  Meanwhile, things like FIP, xFIP, WAR etc. allow for no influence from offense or defense and actually just measure pitching.  Of course, those don't support the asinine idea that Pavano is a "mediocre" pitcher and place his actual pitching performance in the top third of the league his last 4 healthy years.

You do realize that when you count his last 4 healthy seasons, that 2 of those seasons are 2003 and 2004. That was a long time ago.

[welch]

...and, by the way, his ERA is more eye-catching. He is consistent: 4.5 or 5 ERA, lots of walks and hits per inning. To repeat, PCan, remove 04 (so long ago that the Nats were the Expos), Pavano's one really fine season, and '10, and what do you see across a long, long career?

"Put yourself in such a relation to reality that the truth may speak to you", as William James probably said. The purpose of stats is to get a suggestion about reality; not to take a preconception, add a number, and insist that the number supports the preconception.

By the way, screaming insults just makes an argument less convincing (a lesson from Mr. Donald Kauffman, Northwestern HS).

[UMDNats]

Coco Crisp's option will be picked up by Oakland, so scratch his name off of potential OF options.

[hammondsnats]

Coco Crisp's option will be picked up by Oakland, so scratch his name off of potential OF options.

thank god.

[Lintyfresh85]

Coco Crisp's option will be picked up by Oakland, so scratch his name off of potential OF options.

Yep.

[Lintyfresh85]

Lee, Pena on Nats wish list, according to Jon Heyman.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/jon_heyman/11/03/offseason.preview/index.html

And with the aggressive Nationals expected to be in the mix (plus who knows who else? The Angels? Red Sox?) bidding things up, it seems very likely Lee will at least approach Johan Santana's $138-million, six-year contract. Expect him to sign with the Yankees for a deal in that range.

Looks like this will play out the same way the Tex signing did.

Nationals more likely to seek a plus-defender for first base, such as Carlos Peña

Dagger.

[Sharp]

I cannot begin to describe how much of a downgrade Pena would be from Dunn.  Then again, it's Heyman, so I will hold out hope.

[The Chief]

Every year we are described as "aggressive" in the media.  Wouldn't that money be better spent on the field instead of buying off reporters?

[Lintyfresh85]

Every year we are described as "aggressive" in the media.  Wouldn't that money be better spent on the field instead of buying off reporters?

Win.

[imref]

Nats decline option on Adam Kennedy, he's now a free agent.

[The Chief]

Nats decline option on Adam Kennedy, he's now a free agent.

Well I guess that's not really surprising.  I'd say I feel bad for him, but he'll probably get a shot on a much better team somewhere.

[Sharp]

Nats decline option on Adam Kennedy, he's now a free agent.

So this all but confirms that Espinosa is our starting 2B, right?  Not that there was all that much doubt about it.

[imref]

they bought Kennedy out for $500k versus paying him $2 million to retain him, i suppose there's always the chance that they bring him back for $750k or so?

[Coladar]

Fangraphs article discussing our middle infield situation. Thoughts? http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/the-nationals-flawed-middle-infield/

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Flawed, in this case, from a fantasy perspective, for the obvious reasons.  Espinosa for batting average risk due to his high Ks, Desmond for not giving much offensively beyond SS average in any category. 

[Sharp]

More accurately, Desmond for being slightly below the SS average in every category.