10/11 offseason

[Sharp]

His career HR/FB is 11.9%.  League average is... around 11%.  Martin's not being killed by his HR tendencies, he's being killed by his flyball tendencies (which are a very real concern).  Also by the fact that he barely strikes out anyone.  In fact that is what most of the Nats starters suffer from.

[welch]

...and Jordan Zimmermann is the best of the bunch, but he's recovering from a serious injury, and has not pitched a full season in the majors. Twice he looked good for about five innings. He's not a "no-hoper", but he's certainly not anybody's number one starter.

- Was Marquis ever all that good? Is there sound reason to believe he will be better than ever?

- Since Cliff Lee is not going to Washington, what ace pitcher could the team sign?

- That leaves a Marquis-clone, plus all the pitchers we know so well: Lannan and Livo might be the best of a bad bunch, followed by Stammen and a crowd of "junk-ball" finesse pitchers.

- Of possible OF, the odds seem against Washington signing either Werth or Erskine. Will they outbid the Yankees? OF looks mediocre as well as thin.

- IF: Does anyone else get nervous when the ball is hit at Desmond? Espinosa fields well, but only hit .26x in the minors, and .215 in September. Watching him against the Mets, it looked like he has trouble with breaking pitches, which major league pitchers can throw. In the minors, he struck out about twice as often as he walked, which is not an encouraging sign.

[Lintyfresh85]

- IF: Does anyone else get nervous when the ball is hit at Desmond? Espinosa fields well, but only hit .26x in the minors, and .215 in September. Watching him against the Mets, it looked like he has trouble with breaking pitches, which major league pitchers can throw. In the minors, he struck out about twice as often as he walked, which is not an encouraging sign.

No, no it's not.

He's headed for Winter Ball this year... they throw a ton of breaking balls down there. I hope he picks up some good habits.

[Potomac Cannons]

Anyone worrying about Espinosa due to freaking batting average?  Great fielder, good power and as I already showed, all he has to do is get back half of his OBP that dropped coming up to the majors and he's a top 15 offensive 2B (and just outside the top 5 SS if he ends up there).  Doubtful he'll be a superstar but he'll be a good player if he's left at 2B and a borderline all star at SS.

[KnorrForYourMoney]

I'm more worried about Espinosa's bat going so cold after that really hot start.

[Lintyfresh85]

Anyone worrying about Espinosa due to freaking batting average?  Great fielder, good power and as I already showed, all he has to do is get back half of his OBP that dropped coming up to the majors and he's a top 15 offensive 2B (and just outside the top 5 SS if he ends up there).  Doubtful he'll be a superstar but he'll be a good player if he's left at 2B and a borderline all star at SS.

What did you "show" us?

How is he going to make up the half OBP drop he suffered when he made it to the pros?

[Potomac Cannons]

- Since Cliff Lee is not going to Washington, what ace pitcher could the team sign?

- That leaves a Marquis-clone, plus all the pitchers we know so well: Lannan and Livo might be the best of a bad bunch, followed by Stammen and a crowd of "junk-ball" finesse pitchers.

It's as if guys like Pavano, Westbrook and De La Rosa don't even exist on your radar.  There's only 1 "Ace" pitcher on the FA market.  There are more front of the rotation SPs this year than there were last year.  Last year's stated goal was getting a FA innings eater and it was accomplished.  This year's is getting a front of the rotation starter and there's no reason to think it won't happen by FA or trade (Greinke isn't the only one that will be available).

[Lintyfresh85]

No, it's not front of the rotation starter, it was stated as a #1 starter.

There's a difference.

[DPMOmaha]

No, it's not front of the rotation starter, it was stated as a #1 starter.

Yep, but that doesn't also mean ace, fwiw.

[NatsDad14]

It's as if guys like Pavano, Westbrook and De La Rosa don't even exist on your radar.  There's only 1 "Ace" pitcher on the FA market.  There are more front of the rotation SPs this year than there were last year.  Last year's stated goal was getting a FA innings eater and it was accomplished.  This year's is getting a front of the rotation starter and there's no reason to think it won't happen by FA or trade (Greinke isn't the only one that will be available).

Those guys aren't Front of the rotation starters especially Westbrook who is no where near a Front of the rotation starter.

[Potomac Cannons]

What did you "show" us?

How is he going to make up the half OBP drop he suffered when he made it to the pros?

His history of moving up levels showed essentially no drop in either OBP or SLG.  I think he was brought up without enough AAA ABs to solidify at that level.  There's no reason to think a 23 year old isn't going to be able grab back .035 in OBP in a year or two.  Even if he doesn't his OPS was still good enough that a full season of it would have ranked him 10th among 2B and 9th among SS.  His defense should guarantee getting enough PAs to qualify this year and start several years of being an every day MI.

We're hopefully past the days of pushing prospects like Casto who showed appreciable drops each level they moved up and never recovered what was dropped.

Honestly, he projects like a lot of the Giants current lineup.  Not the greatest contact hitter but he has good ABs, gets on at a solid rate, and can jack one out at any moment.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Mind you, I'd be happy with De La Rosa or maybe Pavano (or both), along with two credible bats. Would really dig Billy Hall taking over the Willie Harris super utility role. 

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Honestly, he projects like a lot of the Giants current lineup.  Not the greatest contact hitter but he has good ABs, gets on at a solid rate, and can jack one out at any moment.

Ever look at Espinosa and Juan Uribe and get confused?  Maybe he does not get as bulky, but the pop, glove, spotty average makes me think there is comparable (I also think Jose Valentin, but I don't think the power is quite at Valentin's level).

[Potomac Cannons]

No, it's not front of the rotation starter, it was stated as a #1 starter.

There's a difference.

Here's Rizzo's actual quote:

"I think as we've been saying for a while now, starting pitching is our biggest need," Rizzo said. "We need a guy to head the rotation, a front-of-the-rotation guy to put everybody in what we feel is their proper place in the rotation. That's the No. 1 priority going into the offseason."

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/nationalsjournal/2010/09/mike_rizzo_makes_a_no_1_starte.html

Others, like Kilgore and Riggleman in the article, have labeled that a #1 starter.  He actually said front-of-the-rotation guy is the #1 priority.

Guys like Pavano, De La Rosa, Garza, Shields etc. fit that description.

[Potomac Cannons]

Ever look at Espinosa and Juan Uribe and get confused?  Maybe he does not get as bulky, but the pop, glove, spotty average makes me think there is comparable (I also think Jose Valentin, but I don't think the power is quite at Valentin's level).

Exactly.  An everyday player who may have a big first half a few times that sneak him into an all-star game or two.  I think his glove may be above the level of those two.

[Sharp]

PC, I don't understand why you consistently label pitchers like Pavano, De La Rosa and Garza (why would the Rays give him up anyway?) front of the rotation guys, unless the word "front" has been expanded to include "#3 starter."  Shields is a good pitcher who we could slot into the number one or two spot here, but again I don't see why the Rays would give him up.  I mean, yes, all of them are upgrades on what we already have, but that's only because what we have is so bad.

[cmdterps44]

PC, I don't understand why you consistently label pitchers like Pavano, De La Rosa and Garza (why would the Rays give him up anyway?) front of the rotation guys, unless the word "front" has been expanded to include "#3 starter."  Shields is a good pitcher who we could slot into the number one or two spot here, but again I don't see why the Rays would give him up. I mean, yes, all of them are upgrades on what we already have, but that's only because what we have is so bad.

For a second I thought you meant PC not Potomac. Anyway, I think the bolded part is the truth behind this and I certainly don't view them as front of the rotation guys. It's pathetic that we would. It's pathetic that we had Lannan as our front starter before recent times.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

The Rays want to clear cash, have Hellickson, and could be open to trading one of Shields or Garza.

Pavano, IIRC, started game #2 of this year's ALDS.  Old, yes, only one good year since 2003, yes, but pitched well this year.  Front half of the rotation if healthy?  Probably.  De La Rosa?  One of the hardest throwing LH starters in baseball.  Might be a stretch to call him a #2 starter, but his xFIPs the past 3 years have been 4.06, 3.76, 3.77, and ERA+s of 95, 108, and 110.    A bit walk happy for my taste, but an argument can be made that a hard throwing lefty who gets Ks and groundballs can get by with walks.   Don't be so dismissive.

[NatsDad14]

PC, I don't understand why you consistently label pitchers like Pavano, De La Rosa and Garza (why would the Rays give him up anyway?) front of the rotation guys, unless the word "front" has been expanded to include "#3 starter."  Shields is a good pitcher who we could slot into the number one or two spot here, but again I don't see why the Rays would give him up.  I mean, yes, all of them are upgrades on what we already have, but that's only because what we have is so bad.

The rays have 6 quality starters. They aren't trading Price or Hellickson. That leaves Davis, Niemann, Garza, and Shields. The Rays could even use Sonnanstine back in the rotation, a guy who might be the #3 starter on the Nationals. The Rays could use that SP to fill the OF hole that Crawford is going to leave.

[Sharp]

Keep in mind that on teams like the Twins, Reds, and Yankees, who have elite-level offense, having an extremely good rotation doesn't matter nearly as much as it does to teams like the Giants and Padres.  They can get away with slotting Phil Hughes or Carl Pavano or Arroyo into the number two spot (although they didn't really get away with it in the playoffs), because they will generally win behind league-average starters who give up 3-4 runs each time out.  The Nats don't have that luxury; our offense isn't anywhere near good enough.  We can't afford to pretend that a 4-ish ERA guy is our ace.

[Potomac Cannons]

PC, I don't understand why you consistently label pitchers like Pavano, De La Rosa and Garza (why would the Rays give him up anyway?) front of the rotation guys, unless the word "front" has been expanded to include "#3 starter."  Shields is a good pitcher who we could slot into the number one or two spot here, but again I don't see why the Rays would give him up.  I mean, yes, all of them are upgrades on what we already have, but that's only because what we have is so bad.

Rays are going to be cutting payroll significantly this offseason.  That means Pena and Crawford walk and likely either Shields or Garza gets dealt.

[Potomac Cannons]

Pavano. 

09--13th in K/BB, 5th in BB/9, only top 40 in WHIP, FIP, xFIP, 30th in WAR among all SPs.
10--28th WHIP, FIP 50th, xFIP 40th, K/BB 19th, 3rd in BB/9, and 46th in WAR.

If he walks no one and even his worst numbers are top 50 among SPs, with quite a few in the 30-40 range, doesn't that necessarily make him a #2 SP relative to the rest of the talent in the league?  He had two good years in 03-04, struggled with injuries for a few years, and has come back with two more good years.  He's not an ace, or even a #1, but a guy that is a top 50 SP at worst must be considered a #2 in a league with a minimum of 180 SP per season.

It's a fantasy baseball mentality that downgrades guys like this to #3 or worse SP.  Reality means they must be rated relative to their contemporaries.  I'd love to end up with Lee in FA and a trade for Greinke.  I'd still be ecstatic getting just one of them.  I'd be happy grabbing one of the available guys like the ones listed above via FA or trade as they are all front of the rotation SP.

Add one of those guys and healthy JZ and Stras pitching pushes whomever to the #3 spot by the end of 2012 anyways.

[KnorrForYourMoney]

PC, I don't understand why you consistently label pitchers like Pavano, De La Rosa and Garza (why would the Rays give him up anyway?) front of the rotation guys, unless the word "front" has been expanded to include "#3 starter."  Shields is a good pitcher who we could slot into the number one or two spot here, but again I don't see why the Rays would give him up.  I mean, yes, all of them are upgrades on what we already have, but that's only because what we have is so bad.

Do you *actually* believe Shields is better than Garza?

[Sharp]

Do you *actually* believe Shields is better than Garza?

Not enough evidence for me to say otherwise, yet.  Evaluating Rays pitchers on performance and not peripherals is very tricky, because the Rays defense depresses pretty much all of their pitchers' ERAs.  Next year should make things a little clearer with some of their key players gone.

[Potomac Cannons]

Keep in mind that on teams like the Twins, Reds, and Yankees, who have elite-level offense, having an extremely good rotation doesn't matter nearly as much as it does to teams like the Giants and Padres.  They can get away with slotting Phil Hughes or Carl Pavano or Arroyo into the number two spot (although they didn't really get away with it in the playoffs), because they will generally win behind league-average starters who give up 3-4 runs each time out.  The Nats don't have that luxury; our offense isn't anywhere near good enough.  We can't afford to pretend that a 4-ish ERA guy is our ace.

The Giants rotation is quite interesting.  Their SPs did lead the league in K/9.  They were 24th in BB/9.  WHIP was tied for 3rd.  8th in FIP and 10th in xFIP.  WAR put them 3rd. 

Looking at individuals they seem to be helped most by simple consistency.  Two guys top 5 in K/9 and one more top 35.  One top 10 WHIP and one more top 35.  One top 15 FIP and one more top 35.  One top 5 xFIP and one more top 50.  One top 15 WAR and one more top 30. 

They had mostly really good team pitching numbers but none of their guys was an ace this year.  I'd say their pitching has actually been better, in terms of individual performances (especially Lincecum), prior to this season.  It really looks like the strongest point was consistent good pitching from their top guys and being healthy enough to only use 7 SPs during the season and being the only team with 4 SP who had 30+ starts.