10/11 offseason

[NatsDad14]

How many times do I have to tell you that he has lost 3 MPH on his fastball this year? He had been at 91 since 2005, and this year he drops to 88.

He's done.

How do you know that the velocity loss is permanent? It's possible he has a bounceback season. With diminished velocity, he still is a better option than Pavano or Bonderman.

[Minty Fresh]

How do you know that the velocity loss is permanent? It's possible he has a bounceback season. With diminished velocity, he still is a better option than Pavano or Bonderman.

I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree.  Maybe not Bonderman, but I'd rather have Pavano or Westbrook over Vazquez.

[Lintyfresh85]

How do you know that the velocity loss is permanent? It's possible he has a bounceback season. With diminished velocity, he still is a better option than Pavano or Bonderman.

Because he was quoted as saying that he has to learn how to pitch all over again because his velocity is not coming back.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

He had a 5.10 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP last year. Hardly a great season.

The 3.5:1 K/BB was nice, as was his FIP after he went to Minnesota.  Basically had a bad April and an extremely awful July.  This year, he's getting a lot more groundballs than in the past.  Dunno why. Ben?

[Lintyfresh85]

Ben's a bit busy at the moment.

[Potomac Cannons]

Thought I would add in here that Werth is now a Boras client.  Didn't see it anywhere else here (but I may have missed it).  I wonder if that increases our chances of him being added in the offseason?

[HalfSmokes]

I think it means no chance he resigns before free agency, so that helps

[Upark25]

Thought I would add in here that Werth is now a Boras client.  Didn't see it anywhere else here (but I may have missed it).  I wonder if that increases our chances of him being added in the offseason?

I have been saying for a while now that Jayson Werth is more likely to sign here then Crawford(who is all a Yankee lock to me). He adds power and decent average and is also a plus OF with a plus arm. Combined with Willingham coming back and praying Dunn resigns the lineup would be the least of my concerns.

I know that is a lot of ifs but is much more likely then signing maybe one of the best players in the game let alone OF's in Carl Crawford.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

If the NYY signed Crawford, then I think the right move for them might be to play Gardner in CF and trade Granderson with a subsidy if necessary.  I like Gardner a lot as a leadoff guy / #9 in the AL.  My guess is Gardner goes back to the bench as a #4 OF.  Swisher is signed through next year at $9MM, and Granderson is signed for 2 years, $20.25 MM guaranteed, including a $2MM buy out of a 2013 option for $13 MM.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Somehow, I think Werth is in the Red Sox plans, too. While they have openings at CI, C, and DH, they may be looking for a longer term alternative to Cameron / Drew, whose contracts run out next year. While they have CF types in the high minors / majors like Kalish, none of those guys have Werth's power and Werth can play RF after Drew.  Power in a good defender may be more scarce than speed.  Werth may get a higher AAV than Crawford.

[imref]

do you not think Detwiler stays next year?  What about Olsen?  Maya?

I do think it's unrealistic to think this team will pony up the cash for a Crawford, though we did go after Chapman and Texeira.  I guess it's OK to keep dreaming.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Thorntonize Detwiler.

[Potomac Cannons]

do you not think Detwiler stays next year?  What about Olsen?  Maya?

I do think it's unrealistic to think this team will pony up the cash for a Crawford, though we did go after Chapman and Texeira.  I guess it's OK to keep dreaming.

I've got Detwiler/Maya starting in AAA next year.  I doubt Olsen wears a Nats uniform again with his injury problems.

[bglide]

Sign Werth.  Better player than Crawford.  They are about the same age, no?  Speed goes before power, and Werth is plenty fast. 

[Potomac Cannons]

Considering what we've heard from Rizzo about the primary offseason plans, and some of the more recent play, here's my updated guess at what the 25 man looks like for 2011.


C-Ramos
1B-Dunn
2B-Espinosa
SS-Desmond
3B-Zimmerman
LF-Willingham
CF-Morgan/Bernadina
RF-Morse
Bench-OF Morgan/Bernadina, C-Rodriguez, OF-Maxwell, MI-Gonzalez, MI-Trade acquisition

SP-Zimmermann
SP-Hernandez
SP-Lannan
SP-Marquis
SP-FA (Bonderman/De La Rosa/Lilly/Pavano/Westbrook)

RP-Balester
RP-Stammen
RP-Slaten
RP-Clippard
RP-Burnett
RP-Peralta
RP-Storen

That simply reflects the idea that maybe Morgan isn't moved, Morse seems to have fully solidified RF and Balester looks more and more like a lock for the pen.

[NatsDad14]

How does that team win more than 75 games? That is this year's team with a little upgrades.

[DPMOmaha]

How does that team win more than 75 games? That is this year's team with a little upgrades.

If we've got a stable rotation, it should easily win 75 games.  It's an upgrade at two positions (C and 2B) andat least 2 of the rotation spots as well if we don't have to see a cycle of Atilano/Martis/Mock/Martin etc...

[NatsDad14]

If we've got a stable rotation, it should easily win 75 games.  It's an upgrade at two positions (C and 2B) andat least 2 of the rotation spots as well if we don't have to see a cycle of Atilano/Martis/Mock/Martin etc...

Livan is going to regress. We won't get those 12 Strasburg starts back. Not much room for improvement.

[Lintyfresh85]

Considering what we've heard from Rizzo about the primary offseason plans, and some of the more recent play, here's my updated guess at what the 25 man looks like for 2011.


C-Ramos
1B-Dunn
2B-Espinosa
SS-Desmond
3B-Zimmerman
LF-Willingham
CF-Morgan/Bernadina
RF-Morse
Bench-OF Morgan/Bernadina, C-Rodriguez, OF-Maxwell, MI-Gonzalez, MI-Trade acquisition

SP-Zimmermann
SP-Hernandez
SP-Lannan
SP-Marquis
SP-FA (Bonderman/De La Rosa/Lilly/Pavano/Westbrook)

RP-Balester
RP-Stammen
RP-Slaten
RP-Clippard
RP-Burnett
RP-Peralta
RP-Storen

That simply reflects the idea that maybe Morgan isn't moved, Morse seems to have fully solidified RF and Balester looks more and more like a lock for the pen.

Where's the #1 Rizzo promised?

You just gave the exact same roster as this year with one starting pitcher added (and a 4-5 starter at that). Nats fans (those that are left) would be jumping ship if that's all Rizzo accomplishes this winter.

[Potomac Cannons]

If we've got a stable rotation, it should easily win 75 games.  It's an upgrade at two positions (C and 2B) andat least 2 of the rotation spots as well if we don't have to see a cycle of Atilano/Martis/Mock/Martin etc...

Exactly.  If we see something close to the Lannan of August/September and the Marquis of September then the rotation is much better.  Then there is JZ who will continue to improve/regain his pre-injury form.  Add in a quality FA SP and the rotation is a strength.

2B with Espinosa and C with Ramos instead of Wil are both big upgrades.  That's a 75 win team without adding the FA SP.  Depending on who gets picked up that's a potential .500 squad that is still young and improving at 3B, SS, 2B, C, CF, RF, 2 SP (Lannan/JZ) and in the pen (Storen, Clippard, Balester).

Then there's the idea of Morse/Hammer in the same lineup which didn't happen much this year.  Morse had 17 PAs in March-May, 39 in June and 41 in July.  By the time he was getting regular playing time (92 PA in August and 96+ in September/October) Willingham was slumping and hurt (August 15 last game).  Putting both of them in with Zim and Dunn on a regular basis makes our 2-6 (with Desmond getting on in front of them) very, very good.

[Potomac Cannons]

Where's the #1 Rizzo promised?

You just gave the exact same roster as this year with one starting pitcher added (and a 4-5 starter at that). Nats fans (those that are left) would be jumping ship if that's all Rizzo accomplishes this winter.

Or I just listed the 4 we have and left the 5th freaking slot open with the top available FAs that I think we can realistically target.  That doesn't mean one of them doesn't become our #1 SP.  Maybe that explains why I didn't bother numbering the freaking SP slots as it's just lining up who is there not where they slot.

[DPMOmaha]

Livan is going to regress. We won't get those 12 Strasburg starts back. Not much room for improvement.

Didn't we say that about Livo going into this year?

We went 8-4 in Stras starts and he didn't have the lead in 3 of those when he left.   They'll be fine next year without him, especially when the World Series probably isn't going to be the outcome next year.

[DPMOmaha]

Where's the #1 Rizzo promised?

You just gave the exact same roster as this year with one starting pitcher added (and a 4-5 starter at that). Nats fans (those that are left) would be jumping ship if that's all Rizzo accomplishes this winter.

That's not the same roster we had for 5 months of the season.  That's the roster we're largely finishing the year with.

[Potomac Cannons]

That's not the same roster we had for 5 months of the season.  That's the roster we're largely finishing the year with.

Stop pointing out the glaringly obvious.  I'd love to see one of the morons claiming this is the same lineup go through and show how many games the 2-6 I mentioned actually started together this year.

[Lintyfresh85]

Oh freak off already.

You know nothing more about baseball than I, or any other number of posters on this board knows.

How about this for knowledge, 'moron'.

Willingham - 32 years old before next year. Trending downward in stats. OPS dropped .015 from 2009 to 2010. Hasn't played more than 133 games since 2007.

Ramos - wOBA of .299. Until he actually does something at the major league level, your inclusion of him as an upgrade is wrong. wOBA of .286 with the Nats, for good measure. Pudge? .284. Oh, I'm sorry, that's Sludge to you... unless he's magically a good signing again. What story are you going with today?

Livan - Best ERA since 2004. Did I mention he'll be 36 before the year starts? I love Livo... but this isn't your imaginary fantasy land, where he doesn't regress.

Bullpen:

Slaten, Clippard, Peralta, Burnett - all had career years in 2010. You really think they'll all improve? Not a chance.

Oh yeah, here's another thing...

Since August, when the majority of the team you have listed has been part of the roster, the Nats are 22-34, good for a .392 winning percentage.

Since September 1 when everyone on that list outside of Willingham was on the roster? 11-16, good for a .410 winning percentage, or 66 wins over a 162 game schedule.

So forgive me if I don't buy what you're selling as gospel. Josh Willingham and one extra pitcher is not going to bring the Nats 6-9 wins that would get the team in the 72-75 game zone.