Has PCan actually looked at Pavano's record??? OK. First it's necessary to read; then to reason accurately.
Study
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pavanca01.shtml and suggest why we should believe you, PCan, when you insist that the numbers "prove" Pavano "would have" been something great during all the years when a succession of "ouchies" kept him off the field.
Take away 2004 and what kind of pitcher do you see??? Look at the ERA slog around 4 or 5. Look at the WHIP. Look at the SO/9. I see a mediocre pitcher. Want a top-line pitcher? Compare the Nats own Camilo Pascual:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pascuca02.shtmlConsider the seasons from 1958 - 1968. Did Pavano ever have a season like Pascual in 1959? And that was just the season that people took notice of Pascual. He went on and on. Note the 1960 season, which Pascual mostly misssed when a Boston player pulled Pascual's picthing arm out of the socket during a brawl after a Boston pitcher hit the Nats catcher in the head.
No, Camilo Pascual will never be in the Hall of Fame, but, yes, that is a top-of-the-rotation starter.
Now, PCan...have you read "Moneyball"? Do you understand that Billy Beane uses stats to predict a player's value over a long haul? For instance, the book focuses on Nick Swisher, and whether it is safe to let Johnny Damon leave if the A's can draft Swisher. It focuses on the chances that Swisher will contribute. Not whether Swisher will be an all-star in two years, but whether he can make it in the majors. Half a decade later, we can say that, yes, Swisher can start in the majors. That's all Beane was looking for: not the next Mickey Mantle.
Your own extrapolations are simply bizarre.
We have a 2B who hits .290 one season in A-ball, and suddenly Lombardozzi will carry the Nats. Yes, maybe if the Nationals played in A, but, do you understand, a lot of players fail at each step up to the majors? Pitchers make fewer mistakes, pitchers throw a little harder, pitchers throw more and nastier breaking pitches. Espinosa got fooled a lot in September. His minor-league numbers are not that different from, shudder, Justin Maxwell whenever Maxwell wasn't hurt. Both have a hard swing, and both would win style points if umpires awarded them. Unfortunately, both swing and miss too much.
PCan, you have to learn the concept of "necessary and sufficient". Sure, it is a good thing if a 21 year old hits .300 in AA. That does not prove they will handle the majors, or even AAA.
On Pavano, incidentally, the general opinion is that he choked. If a pitcher is out for three consecutive yearts, he is usually named "John Patterson" or "Shawn Hill", and he's on his way out of baseball. Three years should indicate a terrible injury. Some pitchers choke. That happens. Look up Kenny Rogers. There is another pitcher -- I won't bother looking his name up -- who pitched well outside New York but folded here. The Yankees dropped him, and he became an adequate pitcher again...at SD, I think. He might even have pitched against the Yankees in a late '90s World Series (and gotten hammered).
PCan, learn how to use evidence and logic. When you've done some research and thinking, try it out. So far, you are unconvincing.
