MLB & Division Watching (2010)

[Lintyfresh85]

Matt Bush added to the Rays 40 man roster

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew/post/Bust-no-more-Rays-add-Matt-Bush-to-40-man-roste;_ylt=AhGWm3uGjNusR7MxCeBc7Tc5nYcB?urn=mlb-283406

He must have some kind of arm.

Good to see he's trying to turn his life/career around.

[DPMOmaha]

Cross DeJesus off your wish lists.  He just got traded to the A's.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Cross DeJesus off your wish lists.  He just got traded to the A's.

I think it was PotCan who spotted the As as having extra starting pitching and a possible trade target.  I have to hand it to Beane. He's got another asset he can flip at the deadline if he does not contend, and all it cost was Vin Mazzaro and Justin Bieber Marks.

[Vega]

I like Vin Mazzaro because his name is awesome.

[Potomac Cannons]

I think it was PotCan who spotted the As as having extra starting pitching and a possible trade target.  I have to hand it to Beane. He's got another asset he can flip at the deadline if he does not contend, and all it cost was Vin Mazzaro and Justin Bieber Marks.

Loved the fangraphs article on this and their assessment of both GMs.  I'm just wondering how Dayton Moore will screw up Moustakas, Hosmer and all 4 AA SP prospects.

BTW, Oakland needed OF much more than the Nats.  Last season saw 3.3 WAR from Crisp and 12 other OF combined for .1.  That's right. 3.4 WAR combined.

[Nathan]

Loved the fangraphs article on this and their assessment of both GMs.  I'm just wondering how Dayton Moore will screw up Moustakas, Hosmer and all 4 AA SP prospects.

BTW, Oakland needed OF much more than the Nats.  Last season saw 3.3 WAR from Crisp and 12 other OF combined for .1.  That's right. 3.4 WAR combined.

What was the Nationals WAR for OF?

[Coladar]

What was the Nationals WAR for OF?

Morgan, -1.1, Bernadina, -.2, Maxwell -.1, Morse 1.3, Willingham 1.7, Harris -.8.

So all combined, .8. I'm sure I left out a couple of OF'ers, and a few of those guys played IF positions for a few games. But all told, not very good.

[Potomac Cannons]

Morgan, -1.1, Bernadina, -.2, Maxwell -.1, Morse 1.3, Willingham 1.7, Harris -.8.

So all combined, .8. I'm sure I left out a couple of OF'ers, and a few of those guys played IF positions for a few games. But all told, not very good.

Nope.  Not sure where those numbers come from.

Willingham 2.7, Morse 1.4, Morgan .9, Bernadina .5, Maxwell .4, Harris 0, Taveras -.1, Mench -.3. 

That's a 5.5 total and Morse projects to 2.5+ if he gets 500 PA.  This OF is solid if Hammer/Morse are healthy and whoever is in CF simply does a good job catching the ball.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

When you cite WAR, note whether it is Fangraphs WAR or B-R WAR. They differ. 

[Lintyfresh85]

Beane then goes out this morning and signs a 16 year old from the Dominican Republic

According to Ben Badler of Baseball America, the Athletics have agreed to terms with 16-year-old outfield prospect Vicmal De La Cruz out of the Dominican Republic.

Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus reports that De La Cruz will receive an $800,000 signing bonus. According to Badler, some scouts believe that De La Cruz has some of the "best all-around tools of any prospect" from this year's international signing class.

Wish the Nats were as active on the international market as the A's are.

In fact, I'm starting to wonder if this is Beane's new Moneyball. Paying premium on international players and then flipping them for pennies on the dollar for legitimate prospects.

[Potomac Cannons]

Definitely seems like Beane has suddenly changed course.

[Sharp]

Beane's strategy is to look in the market for undervalued players and maximize spending there.  Right now, he may believe that young pitching is overvalued and international prospects are undervalued.  I really have no idea, but TBH if I were an A's fan I would like the fact that I didn't immediately understand most of Beane's moves (so long as they weren't obviously bad) because it means he's actually informing his decisions with all that extra data that GMs have access to and we don't.  GMs Jim Bowden made/make terrible decisions, but it was/is pretty easy to understand why he/they made/make them.

[Lintyfresh85]

I'd be afraid to trade with Beane... always thinking he knew something I didn't.

[Sharp]

I'd be afraid to trade with Beane... always thinking he knew something I didn't.

Meh, Beane trades away good players that he can't afford all the time, and he trades from a position of strength to teams with holes.  Maybe you give up a little more than you'd like but ultimately both teams will win from a solid trade.  The only GMs who really lose are dumbasses like Steve Phillips, Omar Minaya and Jim Bowden who don't have even the slightest idea what their players are worth.

[Potomac Cannons]

Meh, Beane trades away good players that he can't afford all the time, and he trades from a position of strength to teams with holes.  Maybe you give up a little more than you'd like but ultimately both teams will win from a solid trade.  The only GMs who really lose are dumbasses like Steve Phillips, Omar Minaya and Jim Bowden who don't have even the slightest idea what their players are worth.

Add Dayton Moore to that group.  He got the worst of the A's surplus SP and a low A prospect for his only legitimate ML OF.  DeJesus isn't great at this point, but he's above average and they'll need a huge improvement from Alex Gordon for any of their OF to have a chance at producing an above average output.

[The Chief]

When you cite WAR, note whether it is Fangraphs WAR or B-R WAR. They differ. 

Thank you for your mature and helpful response.

[Coladar]

When you cite WAR, note whether it is Fangraphs WAR or B-R WAR. They differ. 

I was using B-R, so thus the huge discrepancy. Didn't realize they calculated them so differently.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I was using B-R, so thus the huge discrepancy. Didn't realize they calculated them so differently.

Wow.  I thought perhaps you picked up a midseason listing or something, but that is huge.  I knew the pitching numbers are very different, but the 5 WAR difference between PotCan's Fangraphs WAR and your B-R WAR is huge.

[edit - somehow, they ended up close in terms of total team WAR - B-R 19.5, FG 17.8]

[Lintyfresh85]

They count fielding differently.

Fangraphs uses UZR, B-R uses Total Zone, I think.

[PANatsFan]

Thank you for your mature and helpful response.

haha this sounds like sarcasm but I know it's not.

[The Chief]

haha this sounds like sarcasm but I know it's not.

Yeah, you saw what I did there.

[KnorrForYourMoney]

Wow.  I thought perhaps you picked up a midseason listing or something, but that is huge.  I knew the pitching numbers are very different, but the 5 WAR difference between PotCan's Fangraphs WAR and your B-R WAR is huge.

Yeah, note the full 2-point swing in Morgan's WAR.

Stat-heads: which measure would you say is more accurate?

[Lintyfresh85]

Yeah, note the full 2-point swing in Morgan's WAR.

Stat-heads: which measure would you say is more accurate?

Well, the creator of the Total Zone ratings had this to say on the subject...

I had created a pretty simple system that correlates well with Mitchel Lichtman's Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR), which in my opinion is the best system for evaluating defense.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/measuring-defense-for-players-back-to-1956/

So, when in doubt, go with UZR.

[The Chief]

The fact that there is such a huge discrepancy between the two leading sources of WAR is practically limitless ammo for skeptics of that stat, and by extension, all such stats.

I have come to a point where I generally accept WAR (with salt) in arguments around here without getting into that aspect of it, but I think this highlights exactly why many people look down on it.

[Coladar]

The fact that there is such a huge discrepancy between the two leading sources of WAR is practically limitless ammo for skeptics of that stat, and by extension, all such stats.

I have come to a point where I generally accept WAR (with salt) in arguments around here without getting into that aspect of it, but I think this highlights exactly why many people look down on it.

I have to agree. The massive difference really rather invalidates the usage of the stat. There is no excuse to have such a large variation on the exact same stat. That two sources can come up with so big of a difference makes it far less ideal for making arguments based on WAR solely. I never realized such a discrepancy existed before today. It certainly looks like Fangraphs is less... Ideal. It seems like they put forth inflated WAR compared to B-R. Aside from Morse and Willingham, who the hell are these "replacement" OF'ers that yield most of our AAAA trash having a positive WAR?

Bottom line, one site has Morgan with a positive WAR. One has Morgan with a negative WAR. Nyjer Morgan, this season... It scares me to think the average replacement player really would contribute less than Morgan in CF. Willie Harris had a 0 WAR according to Fangraphs. So 2010 Willie Harris equals the average replacement player? Personally, I'll take B-R with Harris having a -.8 WAR over Fangraphs. But regardless, this definitely shows to me at least how subjective and relatively useless when getting in detailed debates about players using WAR. And I'll say it again, Fangraphs WAR, while possibly more widely used, seem quite inflated by themselves. In comparison to B-R WAR, they seem downright astronomical.