Author Topic: MLB & Division Watching (2010) (Read 123090 times)

Ken Rosenthal, on competitive balance and the potential for other teams to join in the "superpower" group:
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/cliff-lee-philadelphia-phillies-deal-marks-mlb-success-story-121410

That article assumes that every team works with the about the same size market and therefore can generate about the same revenue as NYY and Boston. The article also assumes that NYY and Boston are tapped out in terms of market potential, while everyone else has room for growth. The logical extension of the article's premise is that Boston is late coming to the party since they have always had the capability of spending like this, and everyone else just needs to utilize their similar-sized markets to do the same.

PANatsFan · « **Reply #2280 on:** December 15, 2010, 09:46:29 am »

Quote from: blue911 on December 15, 2010, 08:55:00 am

Watch the Hot Stove show on MLBTV. No passage i don't get the transcripts.

Gotcha, sorry. In the piece he just says that other teams "can" without saying what it is they can do.

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #2281 on:** December 15, 2010, 10:54:21 am »

Quote from: asindc on December 15, 2010, 08:59:33 am

That article assumes that every team works with the about the same size market and therefore can generate about the same revenue as NYY and Boston. The article also assumes that NYY and Boston are tapped out in terms of market potential, while everyone else has room for growth. The logical extension of the article's premise is that Boston is late coming to the party since they have always had the capability of spending like this, and everyone else just needs to utilize their similar-sized markets to do the same.

Nate Silver and others have calculated income, potential TV market, gate and other factors and consistently Boston comes out in the 8 - 10 range. There are several teams that could do what Boston has done in terms of financial commitment (i.e., operate +/- the lux tax threshold within a few million) from ownership over the past decade. Philly is one that has been identified by others and they are doing it. The Mets and Cubs, when they spend, have spent silly but could also do it, as could the LAA and LAD.

asindc · « **Reply #2282 on:** December 15, 2010, 11:07:47 am »

Quote from: JCA-CrystalCity on December 15, 2010, 10:54:21 am

Nate Silver and others have calculated income, potential TV market, gate and other factors and consistently Boston comes out in the 8 - 10 range. There are several teams that could do what Boston has done in terms of financial commitment (i.e., operate +/- the lux tax threshold within a few million) from ownership over the past decade. Philly is one that has been identified by others and they are doing it. The Mets and Cubs, when they spend, have spent silly but could also do it, as could the LAA and LAD.

Are they calculating it based on the Boston Metro area or the entire 5 3/4 state New England area?

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #2283 on:** December 15, 2010, 11:52:58 am »

Quote from: asindc on December 15, 2010, 11:07:47 am

Are they calculating it based on the Boston Metro area or the entire 5 3/4 state New England area?

Not just the Boston area, but probably less than all of NE. Silver I believe does some weighting of factors like distance, MLB exclusive rights, TV shares in shared markets, etc..., as well as historical attachments and other less tangible things. For example, the dividing line in CT shifts. Far western mass, VT, northern maine would have weaker weight than Boston itself. Same reason North Carolina would have weak weight wherever it is assigned. Out west, distance would be less important than in the east. It'll take work to dig it up, but I've seen similar attempts.

asindc · « **Reply #2284 on:** December 15, 2010, 12:01:53 pm »

Quote from: JCA-CrystalCity on December 14, 2010, 05:29:34 pm

Ken Rosenthal, on competitive balance and the potential for other teams to join in the "superpower" group:
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/cliff-lee-philadelphia-phillies-deal-marks-mlb-success-story-121410

The other thing about the article is that it ignores the most obvious factor in Philly getting Lee, rather than the NYY: NYY still offered more money, which over 90% of the time is the deciding factor for a player. What Rosenthal should have said if he wanted to be accurate is "If the Phillies can do it [that is, get a top-notch player that is being aggressively pursued by the NYY to accept less money to play for them], then most teams can."

My take on the article is that Rosenthal wanted to provoke a discussion and generate hits. Mission accomplished.

Potomac Cannons · « **Reply #2285 on:** December 15, 2010, 12:38:22 pm »

Quote from: asindc on December 15, 2010, 12:01:53 pm

The other thing about the article is that it ignores the most obvious factor in Philly getting Lee, rather than the NYY: NYY still offered more money, which over 90% of the time is the deciding factor for a player. What Rosenthal should have said if he wanted to be accurate is "If the Phillies can do it [that is, get a top-notch player that is being aggressively pursued by the NYY to accept less money to play for them], then most teams can."

My take on the article is that Rosenthal wanted to provoke a discussion and generate hits. Mission accomplished.

Shhhhh.....Rosy Cheeks is considered an actual journalist here. Don't ruin it for the children.

NatsDad14 · « **Reply #2286 on:** December 15, 2010, 02:48:03 pm »

Wasn't Rosenthal the one who broke the Lee story and the mystery team being the Phillies looking to dump Blanton? I guess that is considered being a hack these days.

DPMOmaha · « **Reply #2287 on:** December 15, 2010, 06:05:09 pm »

Phillip Humber DFA'd. After seeing him dominate at Rice, I really though that trio of pitchers had a chance to be special in the bigs.

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #2288 on:** December 18, 2010, 11:59:17 am »

I love the Bartlett deal and the O-Dog signing for SD. Now, if they can do somehting like a Lee signing or sign Hawpe and Cantu, they may end up with deeper line up than they had even without A-Gon.

C - Hundley
1b - FA or Blanks
2d - O-dog
3d - Headley
SS - Bartlett
LF - A. Problem still
CF - maybin
RF - Ludwick

Figure they added $10 - 11 MM for their middle infield pick ups.

Tyler Durden · « **Reply #2289 on:** December 19, 2010, 10:27:30 pm »

A bunch of random thoughts:

Looks like a bunch of talented players will be in the National League this year - Greinke just being the latest to make the jump.

What the heck are the Blue Jays doing? Not that I'm a huge follower, but why do they trade Marcum only to go after Greinke? Also I find it ironic that sending Marcum to the Brewers may have helped attract Greinke there.

Whats the word on Johann Santana's shoulder? That's a huge hole in the Mets' rotation if he's out for the year. Is Reyes going to play this year?

Royals will lose 110 this year. And I don't think they care one bit. I bet their 'plan' doesn't end up quite like they're hoping.

I hate the Phillies.

Lintyfresh85 · « **Reply #2290 on:** December 19, 2010, 10:35:36 pm »

Santana is out until at least May.

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #2291 on:** December 20, 2010, 08:52:49 am »

At some point, we may look back at 2010 as the year the NL's great young players started to catch and surpass the AL's 15 - 20 years of superiority. I put more value in interleague records than All Star or World Series as far as league to league comparison, so there is still a ways to go, but the AS and World Series I think showed that the elite of the NL matches up pretty well with the AL stars.

blue911 · « **Reply #2292 on:** December 20, 2010, 12:20:36 pm »

Quote from: JCA-CrystalCity on December 20, 2010, 08:52:49 am

At some point, we may look back at 2010 as the year the NL's great young players started to catch and surpass the AL's 15 - 20 years of superiority. I put more value in interleague records than All Star or World Series as far as league to league comparison, so there is still a ways to go, but the AS and World Series I think showed that the elite of the NL matches up pretty well with the AL stars.

The DH gives the AL a decided edge.

HalfSmokes · « **Reply #2293 on:** December 20, 2010, 01:48:16 pm »

Quote from: blue911 on December 20, 2010, 12:20:36 pm

The DH gives the AL a decided edge.

So do NYY and Bos payrolls

PANatsFan · « **Reply #2294 on:** December 20, 2010, 04:22:21 pm »

The Rockies have a killer rotation. I wonder if we could pry a starter away from them.

Tyler Durden · « **Reply #2295 on:** December 20, 2010, 04:43:27 pm »

Ha. We tried to get de la Rosa.

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #2296 on:** December 22, 2010, 08:36:15 am »

Looks like the Red Sox will exceed the luxury tax threshold in 2011 after the Wheeler and jenks signings. They project to have CBT calculation obligations of $182MM lined up so far, on a current payroll of $155 MM.

http://www.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/alex-speier/2010/12/21/red-sox-payroll-likely-be-luxury-item-2011.

PANatsFan · « **Reply #2297 on:** December 24, 2010, 01:25:17 am »

http://sports.espn.go.com/new-york/mlb/columns/story?columnist=marchand_andrew&id=5944598

SAC

PatsNats28 · « **Reply #2298 on:** December 29, 2010, 02:07:39 pm »

Bill Lajoie died... I saw on ESPN that he was the GM of the Tigers, but I remember him working with the Sox as well. If I recall correctly, he was the one who executed the Beckett trade after Epstein left (Halloween costume haha)

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #2299 on:** December 29, 2010, 04:46:05 pm »

Quote from: PatsNats28 on December 29, 2010, 02:07:39 pm

Bill Lajoie died... I saw on ESPN that he was the GM of the Tigers, but I remember him working with the Sox as well. If I recall correctly, he was the one who executed the Beckett trade after Epstein left (Halloween costume haha)

Yes. Beckett and Lowell for Hanley, Anibal, and 2 pieces of mystery meat was his Red Sox legacy. A deal Theo would not have done and tried to block even while he was not working for the team. Was a great baseball guy for the Tigers.