MLB & Division Watching (2010)

[HalfSmokes]

Well, quite obviously, you can win cheap.

very true, you can also loose cheap payrolls. Based on opening day payroll, teams 20-30 have 2 possible playoff teams (Padres and Rays), Payrolls 1-10 have 3 with the Twins sitting at 11 and the Cards at 13. This year there really isn't too much connection between payrolls and winning.  In 2009, on the other hand, it was one of the best indicators of a playoff berth, I don't think the reverse is ever true though.

[Kevrock]

Story of the Red Sox season was the complete failure of the bullpen, moreso than the injuries...

Do you think the Red Sox should have bought players at the trade deadline or did they do the right thing? Miller and Morgan were kind of clubbing them for not bringing in a new wave of players when they had the injuries.

Also, I'm going to be in Boston this weekend. I was thinking about catching the Red Sox/Yankees. I'm wondering if it's worth it getting a pair of tickets or just heading to the Bleacher Bar, which I've never been to. Is the Bleacher Bar worth checking out instead? Can you see anything?

[spidernat]

I'm hate rooting for the braves, but SD and Tampa making the playoffs in the same year gives this team way to much of a look you can win cheap excuse

The Lerners don't need any examples or excuses to continue being cheap.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Do you think the Red Sox should have bought players at the trade deadline or did they do the right thing? Miller and Morgan were kind of clubbing them for not bringing in a new wave of players when they had the injuries.

Also, I'm going to be in Boston this weekend. I was thinking about catching the Red Sox/Yankees. I'm wondering if it's worth it getting a pair of tickets or just heading to the Bleacher Bar, which I've never been to. Is the Bleacher Bar worth checking out instead? Can you see anything?

I have not been in the Bleacher Bar and really don't know what kind of view is from there.  Really, my last Fenway game was in 2006, before it was built!  

Demand for tickets is down this year, but this weekend is the NYY, the New York kids are in at BU and the other schools, so I can't tell you what the scalpers will want (in contrast, I'm told you could have had playoff tickets at face).  In addition to Stub Hub, you can check out Ace Ticket, a local agency.  

I did not buy what Morgan was saying last night.  First, Youkilis's injury I think was right after the non-waiver deadline.  They did put in claims on guys like Napoli, but were unable to cut a deal.  They had Mike Lowell, who probably was as good as rolling the dice on Berkman.  Pedroia was coming back, came back in early August, but reinjured himself. Ellsbury, too, I think played some in August, and Varitek eventually came back.  Morgan's qualified his argument by saying, "If they knew these guys weren't coming back, they should have made a trade," so his statement can be taken to mean that they were wrong to think that guys who all played in August would have been able to finish the season. Morgan was preaching injury replacement, and the company line was I think correct - those guys were a heck of a lot better than anything you could have traded for before 7/31.  

The one deal that perhaps should have been made was for bullpen help, Scott Downs in particular.  That was an acknowledged need and there really were not great internal alternatives.  They eventually found takers for two of their arms (Ramirez and DeCarmen), but they ended up being very hurt by not having a reliable 3d and 4th arm in the bullpen (and arguably, not a closer).  Given what the Nats got for Capps, I could see them being reluctant to pay something similar for Downs within their division.  That to me is a closer call than the injury replacements.  

[houston-nat]

Somebody just tweeted something about Enzo Hernandez. I don't know if you know it already, but Enzo Hernandez had one of the most remarkable seasons of all time in 1971. Check it out.

143 games, 618 plate appearances
.222/.295/.250 (.545 OPS)
110 singles, 9 doubles, 3 triples, 0 home runs
12 RBIs
ISO .027

That's an average of 1 RBI every 51.5 plate appearances. In other words, he played a full season of baseball driving in an average of one run every 12 games.

What's even more amazing is: the next season, he was even worse (.195) in nearly as much playing time (110+ games), and the opposing team intentionally walked him six times.

[Kevrock]

JCA -- thanks for the insight, both into tickets and the team. Good stuff!

[houston-nat]

2010

Swing-and-miss percentage when the ball is in the strike zone, all relievers:
1. Carlos Marmol, 26.3%
2. Octavio Dotel, 24.9%
3. Tyler Clippard, 24.6%
4. Matt Thornton, 24.2%
5. Takashi Saito, 22.7%

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I really can't figure what happened this year when clippard blew up.

[NatsDad14]

I really can't figure what happened this year when clippard blew up.

You'll be asking that question again next year only about his blown up arm.

[Potomac Cannons]

I really can't figure what happened this year when clippard blew up.

Too many changeups.  It's only a changeup when there's a fastball to throw it off of.

[PC]

Bautista hit two more homeruns tonight, raising his total to 54.

[Lintyfresh85]

Cliff Lee finishes the 2010 regular season with a 185/18 K/BB ratio.

That comes out to be a 10.28 K/BB ratio which is second best single season mark in the history of baseball.

Incredible.

Now imagine him in a Nationals uniform.  

[PANatsFan]

Cliff Lee finishes the 2010 regular season with a 185/18 K/BB ratio.

That comes out to be a 10.28 K/BB ratio which is second best single season mark in the history of baseball.

Incredible.

Now imagine him in a Nationals uniform. 

Out of curiosity, who is the best?

[Lintyfresh85]

Brett Saberhagen with a 143/13 K/BB for an 11 ratio in 1994.

Of the Top 10 seasons of all time, four are from guys from the 1800's... so you know this list is pretty exclusive.

The others guys on the list are Pedro, Shilling and Maddux.

[bglide]

Bautista hit two more homeruns tonight, raising his total to 54.

Never been a clearer case of juicing in the history of baseball. 

[JMW IV]

Never been a clearer case of juicing in the history of baseball. 

for once, I agree with you.

he's got something that is beating the steroid testing. 

or he isn't being tested.

[Coladar]

Never been a clearer case of juicing in the history of baseball. 

Like I said earlier, I'm convinced there is a Blue Jays trainer supplying certain members of the team. Just look at tonight, six home runs. Two different guys hit two home runs tonight. If this were the Yankees, I'd say fine, they signed a ton of HR hitters. But a lot of these guys are doubling, even tripling their previous career marks. You just don't see bizarre increases like this with this many players unless they are receiving some of the best hitting advice in the history of baseball. I get there is the argument Bautista changed his swing, and he obviously did. But it's just getting harder and harder to believe that is the sole reason for an increase of 40 HRs season to season and still counting.

On a more positive note, Cliff Lee is truly phenomenal. If the Rangers could throw him out there every night, they just might have a shot. That K/BB number is unbelievable. What a command pitcher. The Phillies made such a huge mistake trading him. My god, if they had Halladay, Lee and Oswalt going into the playoffs? They'd sweep every series. I want to see the Philthies swept in the NLDS, but wouldn't it be hilarious to have a Rangers/Philthies WS and Lee be their deathblow? I will never, ever, ever understand why on earth they got rid of Lee. Never.

[Potomac Cannons]

Like I said earlier, I'm convinced there is a Blue Jays trainer supplying certain members of the team. Just look at tonight, six home runs. Two different guys hit two home runs tonight. If this were the Yankees, I'd say fine, they signed a ton of HR hitters. But a lot of these guys are doubling, even tripling their previous career marks.

A lot?  This year's totals first with previous career high second:

Bautista  54  16 (2006)
Wells 31  33 (2003--32 in 2006)
Hill 26  36 (2009)
Lind 22  35 (2009)
Overbay 20  22 (2006)
Buck 20  18 (2007)
Encarnacion 18  26 (2008)
Gonzalez 23 (17 with Tor)  23 (2004--also the last time prior to 2010 he had more than 500 ABs)
Snider 14  9 (2009)
Lewis 8  9 (2008)
Molina 6  6 (2005)

There is a grand total of 1 guy having a breakout HR year for the Blue Jays.  Their 3rd and 4th HR guys this year have dropped 10 and 13 below last years pace.

One guy on the team has either juiced or actually changed his swing the way he said.  Considering all the stats point towards him taking pitches, swinging for the fences every time, and hitting HRs while not doing much else, juicing doesn't even make sense here.

The only reason bigotglide says so is because it's a Hispanic player.

[bglide]

The guy is a little guy.  He's over 30, and all of a sudden he is Babe Ruth?  Tell you what, Potomac.  I'll bet you $100 Batista doesn't hit 30 home runs next year.  If he gets injured for a long time I'll let you slide.  If he gets suspended I win. 

[Lintyfresh85]

The guy is a little guy.  He's over 30, and all of a sudden he is Babe Ruth?  Tell you what, Potomac.  I'll bet you $100 Batista doesn't hit 30 home runs next year.  If he gets injured for a long time I'll let you slide.  If he gets suspended I win. 

I'll take that bet.

[Coladar]

In my earlier post in this thread I looked at the previous three seasons for each player, and posted their previous years numbers I believe. A few of the guys you posted hit their career high over three years ago. Wells was seven years ago. PEDs can reverse the power you lose due to aging. Clearly my comment on doubling or tripling their career highs was hyperbole, the site I used listed only the previous three seasons and thus I didn't see further back than that. The point remains, if you look at the last 2-3 years, a lot of those you listed are doubling their numbers. One or two guys approaching career highs set years ago is luck. Several? With Bautista's onslaught factored in? I'd like to believe this is purely great hitting instruction for the purity of the game, and obviously the numbers you posted show all save Bautista are within their career marks. But doubling/tripling HR numbers season to season is highly irregular. It's not unheard of, and clearly the clean tests indicate this is done the right way. Hopefully it is. I'm just personally not buying it.

[Potomac Cannons]

I'll take that bet.

So will I.  Dude put up a .232 BABIP this year.  He's a flyball only pull hitter on a team that needs a freak show to remain relevant in their division.  He'll bat 4th and be allowed to swing for the fences all year next year.  Only way he doesn't get to 30 is injury.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Bautista hit two more homeruns tonight, raising his total to 54.

7 more over the weekend and he ties the record for unindicted, unconfessed, unleaked to the media positive PED result homers in  a season.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

There is something to playing in the Rogers Center that contributes to the Jays HR totals. They are about a 3:2 ratio in home v road homers (146:101, with 50 fewer ABs at home than on the road I think due to the series shift to Philadelphia).  Bautista is slightly better than that (33:19).  Yes, his road homers exceed his career high for a full season, but the 342 PAs away is like 80% - 90% of his full seasons' PAs for all but one year of his career.  For fun, if you take that away 19 HR, multiply it by 5/4, you get about 24 HRs.  So one way to look at his jump is that it is about a 50% increase of his prior 15 HR a year pace per PA away from the Rogers Center.  Add in he also plays in some good righty pull parks like Fenway (4) and OPACY (3), and it begins to look less outrageous.

[PANatsFan]

There is something to playing in the Rogers Center that contributes to the Jays HR totals. They are about a 3:2 ratio in home v road homers (146:101, with 50 fewer ABs at home than on the road I think due to the series shift to Philadelphia).  Bautista is slightly better than that (33:19).  Yes, his road homers exceed his career high for a full season, but the 342 PAs away is like 80% - 90% of his full seasons' PAs for all but one year of his career.  For fun, if you take that away 19 HR, multiply it by 5/4, you get about 24 HRs.  So one way to look at his jump is that it is about a 50% increase of his prior 15 HR a year pace per PA away from the Rogers Center.  Add in he also plays in some good righty pull parks like Fenway (4) and OPACY (3), and it begins to look less outrageous.

I'd like to know what it is, actually. I've sat in the CF seats, and if you can believe it, Tony Blanco and Shea Hillenbrand hit moonshots that day, but it doesn't seem like a bandbox. It's a lovely place to catch a game, but the neighborhood surrounding completely lacks any charm.