Author Topic: MLB & Division Watching (2010)  (Read 123254 times)

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Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: MLB & Division Watching (2010)
« Reply #2075 on: October 08, 2010, 11:35:56 am »
For anyone who listens to podcasts, the current Freakeconomics one is about the run decline in baseball this year- it's pretty interesting and not too long

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: MLB & Division Watching (2010)
« Reply #2076 on: October 08, 2010, 11:51:50 am »
For those that want a quick and dirty version... the decline in usage of steroids had nothing to do with the decline in runs in baseball.

Offline houston-nat

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Re: MLB & Division Watching (2010)
« Reply #2077 on: October 08, 2010, 12:33:42 pm »
That's a great breakdown of the steroid argument. Unfortunately I think a lot of the people who assume everyone is juicing automatically, and thus could use a good chance to listen to the actual evidence, won't take the time to play the podcast.

Offline imref

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Re: MLB & Division Watching (2010)
« Reply #2078 on: October 12, 2010, 09:29:10 pm »
Braves will name Fredi Gonzales as their manager tomorrow.  Being the Marlins manager might now be the most coveted job in baseball considering where the last two have ended up.

Offline houston-nat

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Re: MLB & Division Watching (2010)
« Reply #2079 on: October 24, 2010, 01:00:49 pm »
When you factor in arbitration cases who can be non-tendered and ex-free agents whose contracts can be bought out, the San Diego Padres have no players under contract for 2011. Their only guaranteed expenses for next year are the salary or buyout of Jon Garland and Yorvit Torrealba. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/10/2011-payroll-commitments.html

Offline The Chief

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Re: MLB & Division Watching (2010)
« Reply #2080 on: October 24, 2010, 05:21:34 pm »
Haha...  awesome that the two teams with the largest commitments by far just got booted from the playoffs.  I also didn't realize our own commitments were so low, but on reflection it makes sense.

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: MLB & Division Watching (2010)
« Reply #2081 on: October 24, 2010, 05:27:47 pm »
keep in mind arb eligible players are excluded

Offline tomterp

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Re: MLB & Division Watching (2010)
« Reply #2082 on: October 24, 2010, 08:33:58 pm »
keep in mind arb eligible players are excluded

As they should be.  We're talking roster flexibility here.  And in Nats' situation, would would argue that this isn't a good thing?

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: MLB & Division Watching (2010)
« Reply #2083 on: October 27, 2010, 09:27:49 am »
looks like the Marlins might start spending

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/10/marlins-notes-relievers-nunez-payroll-ross.html

If that is actually true, this team is boned, that would put is a division with the Phillies (stacked until contracts catch up with them), Braves (hyper-competent), Mets (how many years in a row can a $100 million payroll flop), and Fins (shrewd but hamstrung by miserlyness, take away the miserly and they may be a good organization)

Offline PANatsFan

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Re: MLB & Division Watching (2010)
« Reply #2084 on: October 27, 2010, 09:33:20 am »
looks like the Marlins might start spending

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/10/marlins-notes-relievers-nunez-payroll-ross.html

If that is actually true, this team is boned, that would put is a division with the Phillies (stacked until contracts catch up with them), Braves (hyper-competent), Mets (how many years in a row can a $100 million payroll flop), and Fins (shrewd but hamstrung by miserlyness, take away the miserly and they may be a good organization)

Why believe rumors about the Fish increasing payroll but not the Nats? :roll: :crazy:

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: MLB & Division Watching (2010)
« Reply #2085 on: October 27, 2010, 09:38:07 am »
It's sort of the normal thing to do to dress up the team when you go into a new stadium. just because we aren't normal . . .  That, and the Marlins have been told to increase spending by MLB.

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: MLB & Division Watching (2010)
« Reply #2086 on: October 27, 2010, 09:39:23 am »
Why believe rumors about the Fish increasing payroll but not the Nats? :roll: :crazy:

with the fish, you've had an owner holding the no new stadium = no payroll increase over a city's head. I actually don't believe the nats are trying to hold the payroll down as much as I think the guys they target don't necessarily want to play here and we haven't had too many guys worth extending (if Dunn walks this changes). Certain things they do seem cheap, but other things weigh against it. That being said, the fish tried to be on the extreme low end of payroll so increasing to just mid low end would be huge

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: MLB & Division Watching (2010)
« Reply #2087 on: November 05, 2010, 11:02:12 am »
Adrian Gonzalez's future:
http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/extra_bases/2010/11/hoyer_gonzalez_1.html

Quote
Padres GM Jed Hoyer had a meeting with John Boggs, the agent for first baseman Adrian Gonzalez on Wednesday.

Earlier today Hoyer acknowledged that Gonzalez is headed for free agency after the 2011 season — unless he is traded first.

"With a year away from free agency, Adrian's desire is to go out and go after a franchise-player contract," Hoyer told a San Diego radio station. XX 1090 AM. "At this point, I think it's a near certainty that he at least explores free agency."
 . . .
Two things to keep in mind:

• It will take prime-time, cost-controlled talent to land Gonzalez. . . .

• Gonzalez is going to want a deal commensurate with what Mark Teixeira (eight years, $180 million) or Ryan Howard (five years, $125 million). It would make little sense to trade for him unless he comes signed.



Offline Coladar

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Re: MLB & Division Watching (2010)
« Reply #2088 on: November 05, 2010, 09:49:21 pm »
Gonzalez wants a Teixeira level deal? Man, I want some of what he's on. That's absurd. No wonder the Padres are saying a year ahead of time "best of luck, have a nice life." Nuts.

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: MLB & Division Watching (2010)
« Reply #2089 on: November 05, 2010, 09:54:15 pm »
Career OPS+

Gonzalez - 137
Teixeira - 134

Offline tomterp

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Re: MLB & Division Watching (2010)
« Reply #2090 on: November 05, 2010, 10:23:03 pm »
Gonzalez wants a Teixeira level deal? Man, I want some of what he's on. That's absurd. No wonder the Padres are saying a year ahead of time "best of luck, have a nice life." Nuts.

Why do you think Tex is so superior?  I don't really see it.

Offline Coladar

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Re: MLB & Division Watching (2010)
« Reply #2091 on: November 05, 2010, 10:26:45 pm »
Why do you think Tex is so superior?  I don't really see it.

I don't think he's superior per sae. It's more the case of I think Teixeira was dramatically overpaid, and that is because the Yankees were in it. The Yankees will not be in it this time, and so I just don't see another nearly $200 million dollar deal for a first baseman. And I do believe Teixeira is a better player. He's above average defensively and superb offensively. An all around excellent 1b. Gonzalez is close, but not quite as stellar in every category, as Teixeira. But like I said, the biggest thing is the Yankees won't be involved.

Offline PANatsFan

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Re: MLB & Division Watching (2010)
« Reply #2092 on: November 05, 2010, 10:31:58 pm »
Why do you think Tex is so superior?  I don't really see it.

I think Adrian has more character and is a better clubhouse guy. MINDFACT! At least he doesn't have a dorkface.

Offline tomterp

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Re: MLB & Division Watching (2010)
« Reply #2093 on: November 05, 2010, 10:37:41 pm »
I don't think he's superior per sae. It's more the case of I think Teixeira was dramatically overpaid, and that is because the Yankees were in it. The Yankees will not be in it this time, and so I just don't see another nearly $200 million dollar deal for a first baseman. And I do believe Teixeira is a better player. He's above average defensively and superb offensively. An all around excellent 1b. Gonzalez is close, but not quite as stellar in every category, as Teixeira. But like I said, the biggest thing is the Yankees won't be involved.

Ok, I see where you're coming from.  I would rate them approximately equal players, but agree that Gonzalez is highly unlikely to get Tex coin unless the Nats drive up the bidding before the Sox grab him.

 :?

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: MLB & Division Watching (2010)
« Reply #2094 on: November 05, 2010, 10:41:26 pm »
I don't think he's superior per sae. It's more the case of I think Teixeira was dramatically overpaid, and that is because the Yankees were in it. The Yankees will not be in it this time, and so I just don't see another nearly $200 million dollar deal for a first baseman. And I do believe Teixeira is a better player. He's above average defensively and superb offensively. An all around excellent 1b. Gonzalez is close, but not quite as stellar in every category, as Teixeira. But like I said, the biggest thing is the Yankees won't be involved.

Adrian Gonzalez at Petco Park

.263/.360/.440/.800

Adrian Gonzalez at everywhere that isn't a graveyard for flyballs

.303/.376/.568/.943

And, as I said

Career OPS+

Gonzalez - 137
Teixeira - 134

Thus, Gonzalez is the better hitter. He's devalued because he plays in a insane pitchers park and he plays on a west coast team.

If Tex and Gonzalez had the exact same environment for 162 games Gonzalez would have the better season.


Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: MLB & Division Watching (2010)
« Reply #2095 on: November 06, 2010, 02:43:17 pm »
Ok, I see where you're coming from.  I would rate them approximately equal players, but agree that Gonzalez is highly unlikely to get Tex coin unless the Nats drive up the bidding before the Sox grab him.

 :?

Red Sox, Cubs, Dodgers (divorce should be cleared up by then, Rangers... could all use a first baseman and all should have money to overspend

Offline DPMOmaha

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Re: MLB & Division Watching (2010)
« Reply #2096 on: November 06, 2010, 03:05:44 pm »
Could you imagine Hamilton, Gonzalez and Cruz all in the same lineup?

:shock:

Offline houston-nat

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Re: MLB & Division Watching (2010)
« Reply #2097 on: November 06, 2010, 03:10:07 pm »
Could you imagine Hamilton, Gonzalez and Cruz all in the same lineup?

:shock:

If you added that lineup's batting average together it would be like 3.000

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: MLB & Division Watching (2010)
« Reply #2098 on: November 06, 2010, 05:22:01 pm »
Red Sox, Cubs, Dodgers (divorce should be cleared up by then, Rangers... could all use a first baseman and all should have money to overspend
Nice call on Texas.  They have the farm system to stock SD and have probably an acceptable backfill in Moreland (if they don't want to go with Blanks).  You could start with Holland and Moreland, and then add in a couple of prospects further away.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: MLB & Division Watching (2010)
« Reply #2099 on: November 07, 2010, 06:51:03 pm »
There's so much random Nats stuff in this week's Cafardo Notes column that I can't figure out where to post it.  Remember, Cafardo mostly has his favorite sources, uses the general clip service that other writers use, and engages in his own speculation e.g., who would fit where). At any rate, here are a few quotes relevant to the Nats.
http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/articles/2010/11/07/checking_out_the_offseason_marketplace/?page=full

Quote
Here’s a look at the best free agents on the market and their possible destinations:
Starting pitchers
1. Cliff Lee, LH — Something you heard a lot after Lee lost twice in the World Series: “Is he worth as much as he’s looking to be paid?’’ Legitimate question. He may ask for five or six years, but a team that gives him that will have to hold its breath, considering he’ll be 33 next season. The Rangers, Yankees, and possibly Brewers, Mets, Tigers, :w: Nationals, and Red Sox will make a run at him.

2. Carl Pavano, RH — A good No. 2 or 3 starter. He has gone from enigma to very steady. The consensus is he may get a three-year, $30 million deal. The Twins, Brewers, Mets, :w: Nationals, Orioles, Rangers, and Mariners are interested.
. . .
5. Jon Garland, RH — He did a terrific job for the Padres eating up innings and lending stability. He could do the same for a number of teams, such as the :w: Nationals, Brewers, Mets, Astros, or Rockies. A return to San Diego also is possible.
. . .
Relievers
. . .
10. :w: Jon Rauch, RH — Has closed and set up. Versatile and effective will play big in the market.
. . .
Infielders, outfielders

1. Carl Crawford, LF — By all accounts, he’ll be the most sought-after free agent on the market and could demand a six-year, $120 million deal or more. The Angels, Rangers, Mariners, and Red Sox are among the teams that could go strong for him.

2. Jayson Werth, RF — A righthanded bat with pop, and a high-effort player, he should command a hefty deal. Five years and $75 million is plausible for Werth, 31, but the Red Sox may not offer that many years. The Sox, Yankees, Tigers, Angels, Phillies, and several others will get into the bidding.
. . .
4. Paul Konerko, 1B — If he doesn’t return to the White Sox, he is a nice first base option for the Red Sox, Orioles, Rangers, Diamondbacks, :w: Nationals, or Cubs. He doesn’t need more than three years and may take two.

5. Aubrey Huff, 1B — He had a terrific postseason for the Giants, who are trying to bring him back at a reasonable amount, likely for not more than two years.

6. Carlos Pena, 1B — He still provides power, production, and strong defense, but it’s awfully tough to carry his batting average and strikeouts. He may return to the Rays for a year, and is a possible fit for the :w: Nationals if they lose Adam Dunn. Also a fallback for the Red Sox.
. . .
8. Adam LaRoche, 1B — A 100-RBI guy whose option wasn’t picked up by the Diamondbacks. Could draw some interest from the Orioles, Blue Jays, Red Sox, White Sox, or Cubs.
. . .
Others to consider: Jermaine Dye, Rick Ankiel, Melky Cabrera, Brad Hawpe, Troy Glaus, Ty Wigginton, Magglio Ordonez, Bill Hall, :w: Nick Johnson.
. . .
One-dimensionals
1. :w: Adam Dunn, 1B/OF/DH — Baseball people say Dunn is a DH. But he doesn’t like the job. He’d rather play first or the outfield. The A’s, Cubs, or Orioles might give him that opportunity; the Tigers will give him a chance to DH. He’ll get one of the bigger deals of the offseason.
. . .
6. Lance Berkman, DH/1B — Someone would have to buy into his resurgence as a hitter. The Rangers, White Sox, Cubs, and Orioles could all be landing places. You’ll hear some talk about a return to Houston, but I’m not buying it.
Also, his random notes on 9 baseball players / coaches / execs:
Quote
Updates on nine
. . .
3. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Padres — After the Padres exercised their 2011 option, they met with agent John Boggs and it became evident that they won’t work out a long-term deal. Gonzalez is seeking Ryan Howard/Mark Teixeira numbers, far too rich for the Padres. So Jed Hoyer is about to be bombarded with offers — possibly from the Red Sox, Orioles, and :w: Nationals, to name three. The price won’t be cheap, but if there ever was a player built to hit at Fenway, Gonzalez is it.
. . .
9. :w: Elijah Dukes, former major league outfielder — What a sad story for the troubled Dukes, who owes more than $140,000 in child support for three children with three different mothers. Dukes, who was held in jail after being charged with contempt of court, broke down crying in front of a Hillsborough, Fla., judge. Dukes told the judge he had no home of his own and “I live where I lay my head.’’
On the last one, I'm reminded of the line from The Natural: "I guess some mistakes you never stop paying for."