One RF thread to rule them all

[PatsNats28]

Take out the Taveras / Bernardina / Morse / Guz and focus on Willie and JMAx.  I would much rather these guys take walks than have a few extra swings at balls they can't hit.

But Morse is cool. freak the others.

[PANatsFan]

Of course you would.  This isn't f'n fantasy baseball, you don't trade/cut people 3-4 times a week.

Willie/Max is 9th in OPS as a platoon and we already know Willie can't hit lefties and Max looks like he can't hit righties.  It would be stupid not to platoon them for the year.

Willie is so valuable off the bench that you just had to give Bernadina a try there. But Willie and JMax is very satisfactory defense, speed, and offense-wise.

[hammondsnats]

Of course you would.  This isn't f'n fantasy baseball, you don't trade/cut people 3-4 times a week.

Willie/Max is 9th in OPS as a platoon and we already know Willie can't hit lefties and Max looks like he can't hit righties.  It would be stupid not to platoon them for the year.

... in a perfect world we'd have a regular RF.

for now we have to go with the platoon. 

[CJames0569]

I really don't mind the platoon, and I'd be more than happy if it was just Willie and Jmax especially since they're 9th in the league in OPS right now. However isn't the school of thought by some managers (heard Sweet Lou mention this recently) that you sometimes need to bump the guys out of the platoon and let them bat opposite their better platoon splits every once in awhile, ie Willie bat against LHP and JMax against RHP. He said that this keeps their skills from declining further, just curious if anyone else had heard this?

[hammondsnats]

Eric Byrnes has just been released by the Mariners ... I'd take him if it were 2006/07 hehe.

[Evolution33]

Eric Byrnes has just been released by the Mariners ... I'd take him if it were 2006/07 hehe.

I think he has lost his mind and while it was cute when he was playing well now he is just insane.

[sportsfan882]

JCA getting some pub in Goessling's column

http://masnsports.com/the_goessling_game/2010/05/afternoon-thoughts-capps-and-the-rf-platoon.html

--Matt Capps was named MLB's Delivery Man of the Month for April, winning the award as baseball's top closer after going 10-for-10 in save situations and posting a 0.68 ERA with 15 strikeouts in 13 1/3 innings this month. He's never won the award, and is the first Nationals player to win it since Chad Cordero in June 2005.

--Wanted to bring a little more attention to a comment in my game story from yesterday. Reader JCA writes:

"If you recalculate the OBP and SLG for just Willie H and J-Max as a platoon, it is more like an .872 ops. That .872 OPS would be 8th in MLB among RFs, between Swisher and Magglio this morning. I'll take J-Max and Willie's defense over those two, as well. Perhaps the question should be, why are we trying Guz / Bernie / Willie T / Morse out there when we have a good option already?
Harris v. RHP:
OBP 5H + 8 BB + 1 HBP / 43 PA - SH = 14/42 = .333
SLG 5H + 3 2b + 2 HR / 32 AB = 14 /32 = .438
JMAx v. LHP:
OBP 4H + 10 BB/ 2 PA = 12/22 = .545
SLG 2 1b + 1 2b + 1 HR / 14 AB = 8/14 = .571
Combined Willie /J Max platoon:
OBP 26/66 = .394
SLG 22/46 = .478"

He makes some interesting points here - is it possible the Nationals have their platoon answer with Harris starting against righties and Maxwell against lefties? The thing I like about this is, both players are going to draw walks. You might be able to coax 12-15 homers out of the two players, and both of them will steal some bases. But the main advantage of going this way is both players' ability to extend innings and get on base, particularly if such a platoon added some depth at the bottom of the lineup.

In my view, it's something worth exploring further. What do you think of the idea?

[Nat of the Living Dead]

What do you think of the idea?

I think 98% of people who read that article are going to ask "WTF is all that mean?"

[tomterp]

I think 98% of people who read that article are going to ask "WTF is all that mean?"

Agreed.  A straightforward VORP analysis would have been more accessible to joe fanboy.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I think 98% of people who read that article are going to ask "WTF is all that mean?"

dude, I put down the numbers.  It's just addition, subtraction once, and division.  3d grade stuff.

[CJames0569]

dude, I put down the numbers.  It's just addition, subtraction once, and division.  3d grade stuff.

You'd be surprised at how bad some people struggle with the most basic stuff...

[Nat of the Living Dead]

You'd be surprised at how bad some people struggle with the most basic stuff...

Indeed. In college journalism courses everywhere you are taught that you write for a sixth grader.

[DPMOmaha]

Indeed. In college journalism courses everywhere you are taught that you write for a sixth grader.

Which is why you'll rarely see me complain about reporters asking "stupid" questions.

[Evolution33]

Agreed.  A straightforward VORP analysis would have been more accessible to joe fanboy.

Odd question here but by all logic shouldn't Willie Harris be a 0 VORP player as he in his career has pretty much been the defenition of a replacement player?

[Potomac Cannons]

Odd question here but by all logic shouldn't Willie Harris be a 0 VORP player as he in his career has pretty much been the defenition of a replacement player?

If it referenced an actual player, then sure.  It does take a bit to realize the stat is in relation to a fictional player who is league average across the board and think of it in those terms.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

NOTOLD- I agree with you that the math kind of assumes the reader knows OBP, SLG, H, BB, SH, AB, and PA are, as well as the formula for SLG and OBP.  Not only that, I was unsure enough about how to calculate OBP (backing out of PAs sacrifice hits but not sacrifice flies) that I had to make sure my decimals matched my source. It's probably more than "just math."  However, I thought showing the calculation was needed because it is so counterintuitive to everyone's opinions about what sort of production we are getting out of right field. 

My main point is in the first paragraph, which was that if two players in a platoon are giving excellent defense and above average offense, is there a problem with having a platoon?  I'd have more of a problem if we ran just one mediocre vet out there every day.  I can see wanting to see if either half of Bernie Max can seize the job, that you do that for player development purposes and live with the potential for less production.  But for production right now, a 2 player platoon seems to be doing the job.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

If it referenced an actual player, then sure.  It does take a bit to realize the stat is in relation to a fictional player who is league average across the board and think of it in those terms.

League average?  I thought the replacement player was an player who could be picked up quickly andinserted in the line up with no cost other than MLB minimum. An average player is better than that.

[Evolution33]

League average?  I thought the replacement player was an player who could be picked up quickly andinserted in the line up with no cost other than MLB minimum. An average player is better than that.

That is my problem with the stat is that at times we have had -VORP players and would kill for a replacement level player but yet we couldn't just pick one up. I think it sets the floor too high and if it were a stat like VORG (value over Ross Gload) it would be more tangible.

[Potomac Cannons]

League average?  I thought the replacement player was an player who could be picked up quickly andinserted in the line up with no cost other than MLB minimum. An average player is better than that.

Could have sworn it was league average.

Looked at Woolner's article on it and it says:

"We define a replacement level player as one who hits as far below the league positional average as the league backups do relative to league average, who plays average defense for the position, and is a breakeven base-stealer and baserunner."

So, defense and running are average, batting is well below and it is based on the minimum salary fill in player.

EDIT:  Read a little more and it is apparently .070 lower than league average OPS with fielding and running treated as average.

[Minty Fresh]

That is my problem with the stat is that at times we have had -VORP players and would kill for a replacement level player but yet we couldn't just pick one up. I think it sets the floor too high and if it were a stat like VORG (value over Ross Gload) it would be more tangible.

If someone needs to write a doctoral thesis on why Willie Harris needs to be our RF based on a stat proving they have some intangible that makes him a better option than Roger Bernadina at this point in their careers then that person needs to spend more time with his or her family and less time dissecting baseball.

If anything, the nitpicking between those two players tells me we need to have better options in our organization to play RF.  If we had Jayson Werth there would be no argument.

[Evolution33]

If someone needs to write a doctoral thesis on why Willie Harris needs to be our RF based on a stat proving they have some intangible that makes him a better option than Roger Bernadina at this point in their careers then that person needs to spend more time with his or her family and less time dissecting baseball.

If anything, the nitpicking between those two players tells me we need to have better options in our organization to play RF.  If we had Jayson Werth there would be no argument.

I have a feeling Werth will want way more than he is worth and he will get it and go hit 3rd for some bad team and disapoint. Kind of like Aaron Rowand.

[Smithian]

Call up Burgess and Destin Hood.

Sink or swim in the ultimate fashion!

[Potomac Cannons]

I have a feeling Werth will want way more than he is worth and he will get it and go hit 3rd for some bad team and disapoint. Kind of like Aaron Rowand.

Even though there is absolutely nothing that suggests they are even close to the same kind of player?  Werth is the 2nd best OF available next season.  He's a top tier defensive RF.  His only downside is injury history.

I'm still trying to figure out the huge negative you implied with Rowand.  Aaron had one year, 2007 with Philly, where his OPS was high .800s.  Prior, and subsequent, to that he is a mid .700s OPS guy with good to very good defense and decent speed (been down since his injury in '06).  The deal for him should have been 3 years, or 4 with an option for the 5th instead of a clear 5.  He's a good CF who will be a #6-8 hitter, #2 when he's hot, for the final few years of his career. 

When healthy, Werth is a much better player than Rowand was (excepting 2007).

3 years, 30-36m with an option for a 4th year would be a very good deal for Werth.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

If someone needs to write a doctoral thesis on why Willie Harris needs to be our RF based on a stat proving they have some intangible that makes him a better option than Roger Bernadina at this point in their careers then that person needs to spend more time with his or her family and less time dissecting baseball.

Thanks.  That what I'm doing in a couple of weeks.  My Dad is turning 90, so I'm going to hang out with him for a week.  Also a first communion for my great niece.  Also hope to visit my Mom's grave that week - would have been her birthday.  And eat good pizza.

Please don't take the stats I wrote up too seriously.  They are just a small sample size.  Truthfully, I think you need more of a track record to figure out what to do out there than saying some basic number crunching will yield a "eureka" like a mad alchemist.  It's just a lot of the "RF options stink" line cites a few stats, ones I don't have much faith in, based on a SSS, so I just wanted to point out that the same performance in the same games can show that at least part of the platoon has done its job.

Yes, I'd prefer Werth, and I might overpay for him.  But I don't see Werth on roster this year, and I don't see any one approaching average performance as a full time player.

[Evolution33]

Even though there is absolutely nothing that suggests they are even close to the same kind of player?  Werth is the 2nd best OF available next season.  He's a top tier defensive RF.  His only downside is injury history.

I'm still trying to figure out the huge negative you implied with Rowand.  Aaron had one year, 2007 with Philly, where his OPS was high .800s.  Prior, and subsequent, to that he is a mid .700s OPS guy with good to very good defense and decent speed (been down since his injury in '06).  The deal for him should have been 3 years, or 4 with an option for the 5th instead of a clear 5.  He's a good CF who will be a #6-8 hitter, #2 when he's hot, for the final few years of his career. 

When healthy, Werth is a much better player than Rowand was (excepting 2007).

3 years, 30-36m with an option for a 4th year would be a very good deal for Werth.

I completely agree but he wants $100 million and I bet an offensively challenged team like seatle gives it to him and tries to bat him third