2025 Off-season - general thread

[zimm_da_kid]

Nightengale says the Nats are aggressively going after Christian Walker. Makes sense as he played for AZ.

Add Walker, Bergman, and Burger, plus a starter and things get interesting.

I doubt we get Walker AND burger AND Bergman. At most it’d be 2/3

[Slateman]

sort of on board. Would prefer Alonso at  5/ $125 million given the age difference, but Walker in the lower range would not be bad.

If you can sign Walker for  3 years / $54 million, then you could add Pederson, Yate, and T Williams too all for < $ 50 million AAV in 2025 and have a nice crew of vets with a still young team

I can not imagine Boras lets Alonso take that deal. He would convince the Astros to give him 30 million for a year, and then ALonso would crush 50 homers.

I think you gotta focus on a higher starter. You can get a Pederson or Yates at the deadline. But this team needs another starter. Gore, Herz, Irvin, and Parker are all young. Virtually a guarantee that one of them will go down with a torn UCL next year. Its entirely possible two of them could. We have no idea what Cavalli is this year. Lord and Stuart look like clear number 5s, if not long relief. Need a solid starter.

[Senatorswin]

They should go hard after Alonzo. He fills a need at 1st and they need the home runs.

[Slateman]

https://x.com/MLBNetwork/status/1854940447371935773

@jonmorosi
 ties free agent Anthony Santander to the Nationals:

"There's a lot of excitement now with the Washington Nationals and if they're able to get a veteran bat like Anthony Santander, their path back to the Postseason becomes a lot shorter

[Slateman]

Santander, Joc Pederson, and then go spend the rest in Shane Bieber

Either figure out first base at the deadline, or trade for Brandon Lowe

[Natsinpwc]

So when I brought up Santander last week it was where would he play?  I assume DH and some OF and maybe some 1B.  Has he played 1B at all?  I assume he could learn. 

[Natsinpwc]

I doubt we get Walker AND burger AND Bergman. At most it’d be 2/3

Most likely 1. 

[imref]

Jesse Rogers on ESPN writing about the GM meetings:

There has been a growing buzz in the industry that Washington will be active this offseason, and president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo isn't shying away from that kind of talk. The Nationals are starting to see the fruits of their mini retool after trading Juan Soto and others to stock the system with young talent in recent years.

"I think it's important to supplement that good, young group of players and surround them with some talent," Rizzo said. "We think our time is coming. We're getting closer. This thing is cyclical. There was a time they were looking up at us, and now we're looking up at them. We feel the time is coming that we can play in that end of the pool."

Rizzo admits he has talked to Scott Boras about former Nat Soto (and other Boras clients). After trading Soto for a haul of players in 2022 that included CJ Abrams, MacKenzie Gore and James Wood, it's not impossible Rizzo could now sign him to a megadeal right when the Nationals are ready to win again -- in part because of the players they received in the trade.

"When I get a feel for where we're at after these meetings, we'll meet with ownership and construct a plan," Rizzo said.

[Natsinpwc]

This sounds like lots of talk to me.  Give the fans an appearance of wanting to sign guys.

[Senatorswin]

No Santander, Peterson. Just sign Alonzo and a pitcher.

[Natsinpwc]

No Santander, Peterson. Just sign Alonzo and a pitcher.

Santander had the better stats this year than Alonso. The latter has better career numbers. I’m assuming Santander would be cheaper AAV and fewer years. Which helps to sign a pitcher.

[Slateman]

So when I brought up Santander last week it was where would he play?  I assume DH and some OF and maybe some 1B.  Has he played 1B at all?  I assume he could learn. 

He plays the OF.

Sorry, but Jacob Young is an offensive black hole and no amount of defense can make up for 30 home runs.

Santander had the better stats this year than Alonso. The latter has better career numbers. I’m assuming Santander would be cheaper AAV and fewer years. Which helps to sign a pitcher.

I don't see any way Santander and Alonso don't get at least five years. Alonso is like 2 months younger. Santander might be a bit cheaper

[Senatorswin]

Santander had the better stats this year than Alonso. The latter has better career numbers. I’m assuming Santander would be cheaper AAV and fewer years. Which helps to sign a pitcher.

The Nats have the money, need a 1st baseman and need more home run production. Add Alonzo and leave the outfield as is.

[Natsinpwc]

The Nats have the money, need a 1st baseman and need more home run production. Add Alonzo and leave the outfield as is.

I'm sure Santander could play 1B as well as Alonso (low bar).  And wouldn't be bad to have a guy who could also play the OF occasionally.  The season is long.  Alonso can only play 1B.  I know they have money but they are not going to spend it all. 

[Natsinpwc]

He plays the OF.

Sorry, but Jacob Young is an offensive black hole and no amount of defense can make up for 30 home runs.
I don't see any way Santander and Alonso don't get at least five years. Alonso is like 2 months younger. Santander might be a bit cheaper

Why would you think Santander could not play 1B at least as well as Alonso??

[Slateman]

Why would you think Santander could not play 1B at least as well as Alonso??

Why do I want him to? I do I want to play my veteran, big time free agent at a position he has played 12 games at? Put him in a corner and put Crews in CF.

Go find a cheap option at first base and DH that we can platoon with others.

[Natsinpwc]

Why do I want him to? I do I want to play my veteran, big time free agent at a position he has played 12 games at? Put him in a corner and put Crews in CF.

Go find a cheap option at first base and DH that we can platoon with others.

so you think they are going to sign a corner OF, 1B and a DH.   

[Slateman]

so you think they are going to sign a corner OF, 1B and a DH.   

I mean, I don't see why we can't. Santander, Pederson/Winker, and then you can roll with what you have at first. That's better than what we put on the field last year.

Putting Young back in CF is basically throwing another season away. You can keep rolling out ~.650 hitters and expect to win 80 games.

[varoadking]

Go find a cheap option...

Not a tall order for Rizzo...

[Natsinpwc]

I mean, I don't see why we can't. Santander, Pederson/Winker, and then you can roll with what you have at first. That's better than what we put on the field last year.

Putting Young back in CF is basically throwing another season away. You can keep rolling out ~.650 hitters and expect to win 80 games.

Phillies did it and won 95 games.

[Slateman]

Phillies did it and won 95 games.

Uh.  No, they didn't

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&type=1&month=0&ind=0&team=26&rost=0&age=0&filter=&player=&startdate=&enddate=&season=2024&season1=2024&sortcol=2&sortdir=default&qual=150&pagenum=1

Their OD lineup had one guys with an OPS under .650. We started 5 guys.

[Mattionals]

Uh.  No, they didn't

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&type=1&month=0&ind=0&team=26&rost=0&age=0&filter=&player=&startdate=&enddate=&season=2024&season1=2024&sortcol=2&sortdir=default&qual=150&pagenum=1

Their OD lineup had one guys with an OPS under .650. We started 5 guys.

This brings up a good point about player OPS and expectations this season. I think an over/under scenario is at play so what does everyone think:

Assumed Locks:

2B - Garcia Jr
SS - Abrams
C - Ruiz
OF - Crews
OF - Wood

Out of those, I'd say 4 of 5 are likely to be above .700 OPS with the outlier being Ruiz.

Possible starters:

OF - Young
3B - Tena
1B/DH - Yepez
1B/DH - Chapparo

I think Tena and Young are likely to be .700+ OPS guys.

Throw in that you could call up Hassall and House at some point. Now evaluate who you want to sign, where, and who you can trade.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Steamer projections per FG:

This brings up a good point about player OPS and expectations this season. I think an over/under scenario is at play so what does everyone think:

Assumed Locks:

2B - Garcia Jr .320 /.441
SS - Abrams .315 / .433
C - Ruiz .303 / .412
OF - Crews .305 / .399
OF - Wood .347 / .448

Out of those, I'd say 4 of 5 are likely to be above .700 OPS with the outlier being Ruiz.

Possible starters:

OF - Young .312 / .343
3B - Tena .299 / .386
1B/DH - Yepez .314 / .425
1B/DH - Chapparo .310 / .417

I think Tena and Young are likely to be .700+ OPS guys.

Throw in that you could call up Hassall and House at some point. Now evaluate who you want to sign, where, and who you can trade.

Garrett would be another name that we currently have who could have a role. His career he's .341 / .492, but his projections are .284 / .372. Call would be another internal option.

.700 OPS is pretty minimal. 19 teams beat .700 OPS last year, which was a down year.  MLB average OBP was .312, .399 was mlb average SLG. I'm a little surprised, but it looks like OBP is more of a weakness for our expected contributors than SLG. i think the bad SLG this year was maybe a function of some of the vets who are gone.

Looking at the steamer projections, I think Tena is low in terms of SLG, and Crews I think is the best bet to beat the the OPS.

[Natsinpwc]

Uh.  No, they didn't

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&type=1&month=0&ind=0&team=26&rost=0&age=0&filter=&player=&startdate=&enddate=&season=2024&season1=2024&sortcol=2&sortdir=default&qual=150&pagenum=1

Their OD lineup had one guys with an OPS under .650. We started 5 guys.

We’re talking about Jacob Young. Not the whole
Lineup. The Phillies played Rojas most of the year in CF and his OPS was lower than Young. We’re talking about upgrading 1B and DH and maybe more power from 3B. Young would be fine in a lineup like that. BTW. Young was 2.6 fWAR and 2.8 bWAR last year in a crappy lineup.  Respectable. Defense and baserunning do count.

[Slateman]

We’re talking about Jacob Young. Not the whole
Lineup. The Phillies played Rojas most of the year in CF and his OPS was lower than Young. We’re talking about upgrading 1B and DH and maybe more power from 3B. Young would be fine in a lineup like that. BTW. Young was 2.6 fWAR and 2.8 bWAR last year in a crappy lineup.  Respectable. Defense and baserunning do count.

Right. But we're not going to get upgrades at five positions. We might get two. So you can't roll out multiple below average hitters and expect to compete.

And defense and baserunning don't count for much, as evidenced by the Yankees. If you have an opportunity to add 30 homers, you can't say no to that because Jacob Young had a lot of OAA.