Follow the Prospects: Jarlin Susana, RHP

[nobleisthyname]

#19 on Logenhagen's top 100.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2025-top-100-prospects/

Here's Longenhagen's summary:

TL;DR:

Susana has one of the planet’s nastiest sliders and touches 102.

While he was still an amateur, Susana had a very, very late velocity spike and progressed from throwing in the mid-80s to the mid-90s in a very short period of time. Because he popped up late relative to his peers, most of the pool money when he was first eligible to sign had already been committed, and he opted to wait a year so that more teams could pursue him with a meaningful bonus. The Padres signed him for $1.7 million and pushed him to camp in Arizona during 2022 minor league spring training. Susana had only pitched in eight official games on the complex before the Padres traded him to Washington as part of the Juan Soto deal. After a walk-prone 2023 (40 free passes in 63 innings) and a rough start to his 2024, Susana appeared to turn a corner in June. He had five dominant starts in a row, was promoted to High-A Wilmington, and then only had two starts the rest of the year in which he walked more than two batters. Susana ended up working 103.2 innings (40 more than the prior season), struck out 35.4% of his opponents, and generated groundballs at a whopping 60% clip.

It’s easy to point to Susana’s velocity (which he held basically all year) as an impact attribute, but it’s his slider that’s easily his best pitch. There are times when it has cutter-movement, but it has eye-crossing downward bend at its best, in the Brad Lidge slider mold, except as hard as 92 mph. It’s a slam dunk 80-grade pitch that generated misses just over 50% of the time in 2024. Susana’s fastball will touch triple-digits, which is enough for it to dominant A-ball hitters. It lacks great movement or tough angle, and its performance will probably keel off a bit as Susana faces upper-level hitters. He barely used his changeup last year; it’s currently a glorified two-seamer in the 92-94 mph range. One out of every 10 or so of Susana’s changeups is any good, but he often casts it and it sails on him; the ones that flash have enough tailing action to miss bats. His slider has enough utility as a strike-stealer and finisher against lefties that he might not ever need a changeup, but some kind of splinker/splitter thing might emerge down the line, as tends to be the case for lots of the pitchers today who have lower arm slots like Susana. Now that Susana has began to check the “durability” and “control” boxes, seemingly at the same time, he’s one of the most exciting pitching prospects in baseball. He’s a 6-foot-6 Leviathan on track to gobble up NL East hitters in 2027.

[Slateman]

Honestly, he's way to bullish. Susana isn't going to be throwing 98-102 as a starter in the big leagues. Logenhagen is proposing that Susana has as good of a chance of being Spencer Strider as he has of being a bust. And that seems ridiculous to me.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Honestly, he's way to bullish. Susana isn't going to be throwing 98-102 as a starter in the big leagues. Logenhagen is proposing that Susana has as good of a chance of being Spencer Strider as he has of being a bust. And that seems ridiculous to me.

He's alone on an island on his projection. Still, it's nice to see the bullish case. I think he'll need a 3rd pitch to make his fastball better. Also, he offered a good view of Susana's improving control, which I think was the biggest knock in 2023 and early last year. Doesn't even touch on the FIP-ERA problem caused by bad fielders in the low minors. Even if you sand down some of the extreme , it's nice to see him explain the basis for the best case.

[Natsinpwc]

Honestly, he's way to bullish. Susana isn't going to be throwing 98-102 as a starter in the big leagues. Logenhagen is proposing that Susana has as good of a chance of being Spencer Strider as he has of being a bust. And that seems ridiculous to me.

Seems Susana should be a reliever. 

[Smithian]

#19 on Logenhagen's top 100.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2025-top-100-prospects/

If Nats were good, I'd say send him to pen and get him to Rochester and to DC.

In this reality, may as well play the starter game for a while juuuuuust in case.

[imref]

one of the social media accounts posted video earlier of Susana blowing heat past Wood.

[Elvir Ovcina]

I wonder if Fangraphs used any comps in its model for him other than Hunter Greene.  It's pretty much the same stuff from a similar body, and Greene has had one very good MLB season, a couple mediocre ones, a Tommy John, and will never be able to go through an order 3 times despite being the size of a small apartment building.

I'm never optimistic on 2-pitch guys as starters where the winning case requires blowing high fastballs by MLB hitters.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I wonder if Fangraphs used any comps in its model for him other than Hunter Greene.  It's pretty much the same stuff from a similar body, and Greene has had one very good MLB season, a couple mediocre ones, a Tommy John, and will never be able to go through an order 3 times despite being the size of a small apartment building.

I'm never optimistic on 2-pitch guys as starters where the winning case requires blowing high fastballs by MLB hitters.

among the odd things in their write up is that they project his changeup to be usable. 30 current value but 45 future value. If he works on it this year at higher levels and it does end up usable, then his profile I think is better. I think he made progress on his control second half of last year, which is his other weakness.

[welch]

Wild today. I think he pitches from Wilmington to Harrisburg, and gains control.

[Natsinpwc]

According to MLB.com he will start season in Harrisburg.

[Slateman]

According to MLB.com he will start season in Harrisburg.

I like the aggressiveness.

[imref]

Nice AA debut: 4IP, 3H, 1R, 1ER, 2BB, 7K

[JCA-CrystalCity]

nice K / BB ratio, but 4.5 bb/9 is a concern. The Ks OTOH

[IanRubbish]

Those numbers are Cy Young worthy compared to Alex Clemmey. 

[imref]

4.2 tonight. 4H, 2ER, 3BB, 10Ks

[IanRubbish]

4.2 tonight. 4H, 2ER, 3BB, 10Ks

23Ks, 8BBs, and 0 HRs in 13 innings.  Almost like he's getting up there and battling himself. 

[Slateman]

You can watch Susana tonight: https://www.mlb.com/news/watch-minor-league-baseball-games-for-free-2025

[imref]

Seems like a typical outing now, lots of K's and walks, and a few runs: 4⅓ IP, 4H, 3R, 3ER, 6BB, 9K, HR,

[IanRubbish]

17 ball fours and 3 hit batters in 23 innings

[JCA-CrystalCity]

17 ball fours and 3 hit batters in 23 innings

I know you've got it in for prospects who get hyped for their stuff and Ks over guys who pitch to contact and keep pitch counts low, but with Susana, if you mention the BBs, you should at least footnote he's had more than double the BBs in Ks. When you get a massive 1.5 Ks per inning, you are entitled to your home run suppression, too, because there just isn't that much contact.

[nobleisthyname]

Age: 21
Team rank: 2
Current level: AA

April recap

W-L

|

IP

|

GS

|

ERA

|

FIP

|

SO

|

BB

|

K%

|

BB%

|

WHIP

0-1

|

23.0

|

5

|

3.91

|

3.69

|

35

|

17

|

33.3%

|

16.2%

|

1.57

[NatsLSU]

Man did we get lucky and hit on another potential prospect from the Soto trade? How soon would he likely make the bigs? September call up and on the opening day roster next season?

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Uncommon but not unprecedented to dip into AA directly and skip AAA. He doesn't have to be rostered until 12/26, so he has to be ready this year and needed for a call up, I/M/O.

One thing missing from the stat summary (and thank you Noble) - I'm not saying it is a must for him or anyone - is his GB%. 51.1%. He's done that pretty consistently since 2023. It hurt him in Fredericksburg, where the fielding was bad and the BABIP high, but it's been helping a lot since the  middle of last year when the K% got to ridiculous levels. BABIP is still high (.367), which I think is his damage now coupled with the BB rate.

xFIP doesn't like him, but, in terms of what contact he is yielding, it's a lot of oppo (40.8%). He deserves the low HR/9.

[IanRubbish]

I know you've got it in for prospects who get hyped for their stuff and Ks over guys who pitch to contact and keep pitch counts low, but with Susana, if you mention the BBs, you should at least footnote he's had more than double the BBs in Ks. When you get a massive 1.5 Ks per inning, you are entitled to your home run suppression, too, because there just isn't that much contact.

Name one of those prospects who's succeeded in this rotation.  Those K's will drop in MLB, the wildness won't.  We need more Parker, Irvin, Shuman, and with some more experience, Lord, types who can go six innings, and push 200 for the season.   

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I don’t recall a prospect as good as Susana for this team. Maybe Cole Henry before the injury. Susana is special. Not going to argue his BBs are ok, but he has a ridiculous amount of things going for him.