Follow the Prospects: Jarlin Susana, RHP

[imref]

So we're saying a guy who has been a regular starter at low-A shouldn't be allowed to start a meaningless low-A playoff game because we don't want to subject him to the "pressure"???

Seriously???

[JCA-CrystalCity]

not quite, but the "fed to wolves" point is that he had been in F-burg for what, 2-3 starts? I don't think he had been beyond the complex league level before that, but maybe I'm wrong.  Not very fair to the F-burg teammates for management to insist on throwing a guy into the deep end.  They had worked hard to make the playoffs.  At least it's consistent with the team philosophy about not giving a crap about results. Got to condition the players to tanking and folding. 

[imref]

he had made 3 starts at Fredricksburg and 2 in the rookie league. I just don't see a Low-A playoff game being such a big deal. The guy was lights out, there's no reason not to pitch him.  He had a bad start,  it happens. I wouldn't read too much into it.

[Slateman]

Weird how no one had a problem the previous three starts

[Slateman]

not quite, but the "fed to wolves" point is that he had been in F-burg for what, 2-3 starts? I don't think he had been beyond the complex league level before that, but maybe I'm wrong.  Not very fair to the F-burg teammates for management to insist on throwing a guy into the deep end.  They had worked hard to make the playoffs.  At least it's consistent with the team philosophy about not giving a crap about results. Got to condition the players to tanking and folding. 

The entire purpose of the minor leagues is to develop talent. It is absolutely fair to pitch him.

[Natsinpwc]

The entire purpose of the minor leagues is to develop talent. It is absolutely fair to pitch him.

Yea. It’s fine. A number of the players who helped the team make the playoffs had already been moved up to Wilmington.  And had their spots taken by younger guys. No one cares much what happens in these minor league playoffs.

[welch]

Yea. It’s fine. A number of the players who helped the team make the playoffs had already been moved up to Wilmington.  And had their spots taken by younger guys. No one cares much what happens in these minor league playoffs.

Whoever would have started last night can start the next game. That game will be do-or-die.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

The entire purpose of the minor leagues is to develop talent. It is absolutely fair to pitch him.

A bit of an over-reaction on my part.  It's a challenge start, and he had been looking good.

[imref]

https://www.fantraxhq.com/breakout-prospects-national-league-east-2023-eric-cross/

Washington Nationals: Jarlin Susana, P
While he was one of the lesser-known names in the Juan Soto return at the time, Jarlin Susana has the upside to become a household prospect name in even the shallower dynasty leagues. The big 6’6 right-hander tossed 45 innings this season between Complex Level and Lo-A, compiling a stellar 2.40 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and a 36.9% strikeout rate. There was a bit of wildness as well, but an 11.2% walk rate for an 18-year-old in his first professional season is hardly what I’d consider worrisome.

Outside of his frame, the first thing that sticks out when watching Susana pitch is his electric fastball. As you can see above, he’s hit as high as 103 mph, can tough triple-digits regularly, and will sit in the upper 90’s. This is from a fairly clean and smooth delivery as well without much effort. Outside of the heater, Susana will mix in a low-90s changeup and a slider that often will sit in the low-90s as well. The changeup still needs refinement, but the slider is a filthy breaker with tight, late break. It’s a big swing-and-miss offering already and Susana can miss bats with his fastball as well.

In addition to his bat-missing ability, Susana recorded a 50% groundball rate in 2022 which is certainly encouraging. If he can continue to refine his changeup and overall command, Susana strong rise could turn meteoric in 2023. Don’t be surprised to see him well within many top 100 overall prospect lists by this time next year, maybe even my mid-season.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Sounds like Strasburg stuff before the TJ, except the question with Stra's change up it was not so much "refinement" as it not being used much in college.  I like the comment about his delivery.  Beats every critic (correctly) calling Stras's motion surgery waiting to happen. 

[JCA-CrystalCity]

MLB pipeline poll of executives has Susana the #5 closer prospect in baseball:
https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-front-office-selections-top-prospects?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage

Which pitching prospect is the best future closer?

21% -- Daniel Espino, RHP, Guardians
15% -- Max Meyer, RHP, Marlins
12% -- DL Hall, LHP, Orioles
12% -- Bobby Miller, RHP, Dodgers
6% -- Jarlin Susana, RHP, Nationals
Also received votes: Hunter Brown, RHP, Astros; Zach Brzykcy, RHP, Cubs; Jeremiah Estrada, RHP, Cubs; Wilmer Flores, RHP, Tigers; Tink Hence, RHP, Cardinals; Ben Joyce, RHP, Angels; Jack Leiter, RHP, Rangers; Griff McGarry, RHP, Phillies; Mason Miller, RHP, A’s; Daniel Palencia, RHP, Cubs; Eury Pérez, RHP, Marlins

There’s a theme that sticks out among those who received votes. Most are ones who have really good raw power stuff that misses a ton of bats, but have some combination of size concerns, health issues or command problems. The top two vote-getters, Espino and Meyer, have both missed a lot of time and aren’t the biggest guys in the world. All five of the main recipients of votes have largely been starters thus far in their career, though Hall did move last year to the bullpen and reached the big leagues in 2022 as a reliever.

[welch]

Work Susana into a starter.

[Smithian]

Work Susana into a starter.

If this team was competitive, I'd be wanting them to rush him to the majors as a reliever to get value quickly since it's an unwritten rule that hard throwing pitchers with cool names are bound to have their shoulders explode sooner than later.

Since this team is headed toward a 52-110 record, I'm fine them working Susana slowly as a starter. No need for short term production. Make a play for long term upside.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

An awful lot of closer candidates used to get work as starters all the way up to AAA or the majors to build strength and develop extra pitches that they may not use regularly but could call on if they later needed to go beyond 1-2 pitches. 

[JCA-CrystalCity]

MLB.com notes article on the prospect in each system with the best fastball.
https://www.mlb.com/nationals/news/prospects-with-the-best-fastballs-2023

Nationals: Jarlin Susana, RHP (No. 6)
The January 2022 signing was becoming a complex-level sensation when he was sitting 98-99 mph during his first campaign in the Padres system. That elite velo made him a high-ceiling addition as part of the Juan Soto blockbuster in August, and he brought the same flames to the Nats system, touching 103 with Single-A Fredericksburg shortly after the deal. Susana only turns 19 next Thursday, so the Nats will have to maintain a plan that keeps him bringing that same heat while keeping him healthy as he climbs toward the capital.

[DCsOwn]

https://twitter.com/Nats_PlayerDev/status/1647250324242022403?s=20

This kid is an absolute UNIT man. Just a ridiculously large human being for his age.

[Natsinpwc]

3 walks but just one hit. ERA down to 6.35

[welch]

3 walks but just one hit. ERA down to 6.35

And six strikeouts. Nearly all fastballs, 100+ mph.

[Natsinpwc]

And six strikeouts. Nearly all fastballs, 100+ mph.

Just work on that control young fella.

[imref]

so Susana is basically what we expected out of Rutledge?

[Natsinpwc]

Will have to figure out his next start so I can watch. Seems at minimum he would be a great arm in the pen with that fastball. Does he have more than 2 pitches? That will be a key to arriving as a starter.

[Natsinpwc]

so Susana is basically what we expected out of Rutledge?

I don’t think Rutledge ever threw that hard?

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Rutledge has multiple plus pitches but spotty command. Never had Susana's velocity.

[welch]

Will have to figure out his next start so I can watch. Seems at minimum he would be a great arm in the pen with that fastball. Does he have more than 2 pitches? That will be a key to arriving as a starter.

I'm not sure that Susana even has a second pitch. I watched the three 2/3 innings and remember only one pitch that was not a clear fastball. It did not break much. The batter did not swing...must have been shocked at seeing something that was not 102 mph.

[RD]

Hes suppose to have a good slider as well, but that's just from reading scouting reports, not 1st hand.