Author Topic: The Nats are...For Sale?!?  (Read 26547 times)

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Offline imref

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Re: The Nats are...For Sale?!?
« Reply #700: January 12, 2023, 11:23:37 AM »
I saw another post from TalkNats clarifying that the offers were in the $1.2 to $1.4 billion range, still lower than what the Lerners were hoping to receive.

I've seen speculation that Rizzo had a $20 million budget this year to add to the roster as well.

Offline PowerBoater69

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Re: The Nats are...For Sale?!?
« Reply #701: January 12, 2023, 11:36:08 AM »
Quote
@TalkNats That was an interesting discussion the @JunksRadio had about our article. I think Jason Bishop said he heard $1.2 to $1.4 billion. 🤯

Talk Nats referenced the Junkies who were referencing Talk Nats. Only one original source of information on the sale being unlikely due to low bids. Those numbers were guesses from Lurch based on the article.

Online Natsinpwc

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Re: The Nats are...For Sale?!?
« Reply #702: January 12, 2023, 12:08:54 PM »
Talk Nats referenced the Junkies who were referencing Talk Nats.
LOL. Welcome to the Twitterverse.

The Lurch reference reminds of this guy.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lerchra01.shtml

And this guy.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lerscba01.shtml

Offline nfotiu

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Re: The Nats are...For Sale?!?
« Reply #703: January 12, 2023, 02:29:42 PM »
I saw another post from TalkNats clarifying that the offers were in the $1.2 to $1.4 billion range, still lower than what the Lerners were hoping to receive.

I've seen speculation that Rizzo had a $20 million budget this year to add to the roster as well.
It's hard to believe that bids will go up after a year or two of not even trying to build a competitive team.  1.4 billion for a team saddled with debt and dead payroll and a loser TV deal seems like an offer they should take otherwise they are pouring more money into keeping the team afloat and likely seeing the value fall.

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: The Nats are...For Sale?!?
« Reply #704: January 12, 2023, 03:14:25 PM »
It's hard to believe that bids will go up after a year or two of not even trying to build a competitive team.  1.4 billion for a team saddled with debt and dead payroll and a loser TV deal seems like an offer they should take otherwise they are pouring more money into keeping the team afloat and likely seeing the value fall.

Either they are just blindly stubborn or the think MASN will come to a head

Offline imref

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Re: The Nats are...For Sale?!?
« Reply #705: January 12, 2023, 03:15:58 PM »
i can't see any sale until MASN is resolved. I wonder if the team is even profitable right now without revenue sharing.

Online Slateman

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Re: The Nats are...For Sale?!?
« Reply #706: January 12, 2023, 03:20:25 PM »
Either they are just blindly stubborn or the think MASN will come to a head
The commissioner saying that he wants to combine local broadcasts with MLB.TV and eliminate streaming certainly goes a long way to supporting the Lerners' stance.


I hope everyone enjoyed 2019

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: The Nats are...For Sale?!?
« Reply #707: January 12, 2023, 03:35:13 PM »
The commissioner saying that he wants to combine local broadcasts with MLB.TV and eliminate streaming certainly goes a long way to supporting the Lerners' stance.


I hope everyone enjoyed 2019

If you think the MASN litigation is bad, what happens when MLB gives Guggenheim and Charter a way out of the horrible dodgers deal or has to explain the Steinbrenner that he's no longer getting YES revenue?

Online Slateman

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Re: The Nats are...For Sale?!?
« Reply #708: January 12, 2023, 04:01:34 PM »
If you think the MASN litigation is bad, what happens when MLB gives Guggenheim and Charter a way out of the horrible dodgers deal or has to explain the Steinbrenner that he's no longer getting YES revenue?
Eh, I dont see MLB doing it unless owners with good deals are getting as much, if not more, revenue

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: The Nats are...For Sale?!?
« Reply #709: January 12, 2023, 04:44:20 PM »
Eh, I dont see MLB doing it unless owners with good deals are getting as much, if not more, revenue

I don't see how that would possibly work mathematically. The Dodgers deal was based on insanely optimistic assumptions at a time when everyone had to pay via their cable bill. They're getting $8.5 billion over 25 years, so about $300 million a year. To just make up the Dodger's revue, you're going to have to convince (assuming $50 a month for a 6 month season) a million people to sign up.

Offline imref

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Re: The Nats are...For Sale?!?
« Reply #710: January 12, 2023, 05:57:05 PM »
Svrluga writes that those close to the process believe that its likely that the Lerners take on a minority partner versus sell the team. The idea is that the minority owner would buy the team once the MASN dispute is resolved, so around the time the MLB launches its sister league on Mars in 2731.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2023/01/12/washington-nationals-sale/

Quote
Major League Baseball Commissioner Rob Manfred has joined discussions about ways to give a potential bidder a sense of that potential revenue, according to a league official who referred to the situation around those rights as “a massive obstacle” to a Nationals sale. Television revenue is one of the steadiest streams of income for MLB team owners.

With those figures uncertain, the Nationals are not exactly a can’t-miss investment opportunity. While other franchises maintain revenue streams from steady television revenue or stadium naming rights deals, the Nationals do not have either. They also do not seem likely to be an on-field powerhouse next season, meaning ticket revenue will likely not be sky-high, and they have a quarter of a billion dollars in debt locked up in deferred player salaries.

And while teams like the Boston Red Sox have availed themselves of new rules allowing them to sell advertising patches on jerseys, the Nationals have not yet taken that step, either. In fact, the Nationals are so limited in their revenue streams that they have maintained affiliation with Terra cryptocurrency as the title sponsor for their club level despite the fact that the company’s founder is on the run from the law. The alternative, according to a person familiar with the situation, would be to give back the 38.15 million Terra paid them to own naming rights to that club for five years.

All of that, combined with the ongoing litigation around MASN, means the franchise likely would sell means the franchise wouldn’t be selling for the maximum possible value. The Lerners were almost certainly overly optimistic to expect they could sell for the $2.4 billion the Mets did in 2020, but how much less the Lerner would accept remains to be seen. The Marlins sold for $1.2 billion in 2018. The Royals sold for $1 billion in 2019. The Nationals, a recent World Champion in a much larger market and the baseball jewel of the nation’s capital, have fair reason to believe they could command more than that.


Offline SkinsNatFan21RIP

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Re: The Nats are...For Sale?!?
« Reply #711: January 12, 2023, 05:59:03 PM »
So basically we’re screwed.

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: The Nats are...For Sale?!?
« Reply #712: January 12, 2023, 06:05:32 PM »
So they’re selling an option to purchase the team :lmao:

Online Natsinpwc

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Re: The Nats are...For Sale?!?
« Reply #713: January 12, 2023, 06:20:08 PM »
The minority owner waiting to take over is the model used by Pollin to sell out eventually to Ted for the Bullets and Caps.  It’s still less than attractive with the MASN issue unresolved and the majority owners apparently satisfied with a World Series title and now not willing to compete.

Offline nfotiu

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Re: The Nats are...For Sale?!?
« Reply #714: January 12, 2023, 07:28:26 PM »
I don't see how that would possibly work mathematically. The Dodgers deal was based on insanely optimistic assumptions at a time when everyone had to pay via their cable bill. They're getting $8.5 billion over 25 years, so about $300 million a year. To just make up the Dodger's revue, you're going to have to convince (assuming $50 a month for a 6 month season) a million people to sign up.

I think the Commissioner talked about opening up mlb.tv as a stop gap when Sinclair's RSN go bankrupt.   He also said the end goal is to get them on a streaming service like Apple, Amazon, or Google.   That is probably where they can actually make some portion of the RSN money back.   MLB.tv revenue, even with in-market availability would not put much of a dent in the RSN losses.

It's hard to see a way out for deals like the Dodgers though.   YES and NESN will be losing subscribers too, so, they need to keep an eye on the future and may be willing to work out something.   Dodgers deal is a long time but it will end eventually (14 more years I think), and they need to do something to work towards the future.   It will be an interesting scenario if half the league loses their TV deals this year and Dodgers are making 300 million/year.   

Online Slateman

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Re: The Nats are...For Sale?!?
« Reply #715: January 12, 2023, 09:44:20 PM »
Awww ....those poor billionaires cant get enough revenue to the team

Offline KnorrForYourMoney

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Re: The Nats are...For Sale?!?
« Reply #716: January 12, 2023, 11:21:37 PM »
Awww ....those poor billionaires cant get enough revenue to the team

Shut it, commie :)

Offline imref

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Re: The Nats are...For Sale?!?
« Reply #717: January 13, 2023, 08:03:24 AM »
Shut it, commie :)

This is all because DC wouldn't pay for a roof. :)

Offline nfotiu

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Re: The Nats are...For Sale?!?
« Reply #718: January 13, 2023, 09:49:35 AM »
Hopefully Sinclair's RSNs can go ahead with their bankruptcy sooner than later.   I think a lot of dominoes will fall after that, that could help resolve the MASN situation.

I see MLB just made a big hire in this area to try to figure out what a post RSN world looks like:

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/mlb-hires-executive-from-sinclair-concerned-with-tv-future/

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: The Nats are...For Sale?!?
« Reply #719: January 13, 2023, 10:13:39 AM »
Hopefully Sinclair's RSNs can go ahead with their bankruptcy sooner than later.   I think a lot of dominoes will fall after that, that could help resolve the MASN situation.

I see MLB just made a big hire in this area to try to figure out what a post RSN world looks like:

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/mlb-hires-executive-from-sinclair-concerned-with-tv-future/

All this portends is endless litigation. There is no fair way, or even a way to get teams to buy in, for mlb to do this. In the same year that the royals sold for $1billion, the mets sold for $2.45 billion. If mlb ends up with both of their rights, does KC agree that NY's are worth 2.5 times as much? Do the small markets demand equal payouts?

Offline nfotiu

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Re: The Nats are...For Sale?!?
« Reply #720: January 13, 2023, 10:49:13 AM »
All this portends is endless litigation. There is no fair way, or even a way to get teams to buy in, for mlb to do this. In the same year that the royals sold for $1billion, the mets sold for $2.45 billion. If mlb ends up with both of their rights, does KC agree that NY's are worth 2.5 times as much? Do the small markets demand equal payouts?

Yeah probably.  Manfred has always yelled at anyone who is listening that local tV rights don't include streaming rights.  With no need to worry about pissing off Sinclair at contract extension time, and no one else really in the RSN game, he could theoretically nationalize streaming rights and just let the rest of the current RSN contracts play out.

The Mets are only getting like $52 million from SNY and Wilpon is still trying to offload it.   

When Sinclair shuts down, only the Dodgers are still getting rich off RSNs.    The Yankees and Red Sox as well, but their revenues will continue to fall on their team owned channels.   If voting is 27-3, and the big teams still need other teams to play, they can probably strong arm something, but you're right, it will be messy.

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: The Nats are...For Sale?!?
« Reply #721: January 13, 2023, 10:53:58 AM »
Yeah probably.  Manfred has always yelled at anyone who is listening that local tV rights don't include streaming rights.  With no need to worry about pissing off Sinclair at contract extension time, and no one else really in the RSN game, he could theoretically nationalize streaming rights and just let the rest of the current RSN contracts play out.

The Mets are only getting like $52 million from SNY and Wilpon is still trying to offload it.   

When Sinclair shuts down, only the Dodgers are still getting rich off RSNs.    The Yankees and Red Sox as well, but their revenues will continue to fall on their team owned channels.   If voting is 27-3, and the big teams still need other teams to play, they can probably strong arm something, but you're right, it will be messy.

I think every team, minus the Os and Nats, who is locked into a non-sinclair deal will fair better under their current deal than under an equal split of MLB.TV revenue. I also think that the RSNs locked into these deals would try to use in market streaming as a way to get out of them. 

Offline nfotiu

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Re: The Nats are...For Sale?!?
« Reply #722: January 13, 2023, 11:53:15 AM »
Here's what the current make up looks like:
14 teams under Sinclair: (Arizona, Atlanta, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Detroit, Kansas City, LA Angels, Miami, Milwaukee, Minnesota, St. Louis, San Diego, Tampa Bay, Texas)
Chi Cubs - co-owned with Sinclair and unsure how they'd fare in a Sinclair bankruptcy
White Sox - Currently make 120 million from NBC sports net, but that expires in 2024 and they are unlikely to renew as NBC sports wants to mostly exit this space.
A's - 48 million through 2029 on NBC which likely won't renew.
Giants - 63 million through 2032 on a deal that likely won't renew.
Phillies - Averages 100 million plus until 2040 with NBC who also are owners of the Flyers and want to keep this channel running.
Rockies - on AT&T but not much known
Houston - AT&T until 2032 at 80 m/year
Pirates - AT&T but not much known
Mariners - AT&T 100 million until 2031
Red Sox - Probably 100-150 million from NESN but dropping at about 10% per year.
Yankees - 150-200 million from YES
Mets - 54 million per year on SNY until 2030 who wants to get out of the business.
Dodgers - 300 million a year until 2038!
Os/Nats - MASN still makes 150ish million/year, but obviously not much is going to the teams.


The Phillies and Dodgers are the only obvious winners for the medium/long term future.   Giants, Astros, Mariners are in good shape for 7-8 years.   Red Sox and Yankees are fine for a while.   The other 22 American teams are in precarious positions and need to figure out something for the future.

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: The Nats are...For Sale?!?
« Reply #723: January 13, 2023, 12:19:33 PM »
Here's what the current make up looks like:
14 teams under Sinclair: (Arizona, Atlanta, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Detroit, Kansas City, LA Angels, Miami, Milwaukee, Minnesota, St. Louis, San Diego, Tampa Bay, Texas)
Chi Cubs - co-owned with Sinclair and unsure how they'd fare in a Sinclair bankruptcy
White Sox - Currently make 120 million from NBC sports net, but that expires in 2024 and they are unlikely to renew as NBC sports wants to mostly exit this space.
A's - 48 million through 2029 on NBC which likely won't renew.
Giants - 63 million through 2032 on a deal that likely won't renew.
Phillies - Averages 100 million plus until 2040 with NBC who also are owners of the Flyers and want to keep this channel running.
Rockies - on AT&T but not much known
Houston - AT&T until 2032 at 80 m/year
Pirates - AT&T but not much known
Mariners - AT&T 100 million until 2031
Red Sox - Probably 100-150 million from NESN but dropping at about 10% per year.
Yankees - 150-200 million from YES
Mets - 54 million per year on SNY until 2030 who wants to get out of the business.
Dodgers - 300 million a year until 2038!
Os/Nats - MASN still makes 150ish million/year, but obviously not much is going to the teams.


The Phillies and Dodgers are the only obvious winners for the medium/long term future.   Giants, Astros, Mariners are in good shape for 7-8 years.   Red Sox and Yankees are fine for a while.   The other 22 American teams are in precarious positions and need to figure out something for the future.


So much depends on how many subscribers that MLB.tv can get. I think any team with any deal is going to make more riding that deal out to the end than under streaming. I also think dividing that revenue between teams is going to be a nightmare

Offline nfotiu

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Re: The Nats are...For Sale?!?
« Reply #724: January 13, 2023, 12:35:41 PM »
So much depends on how many subscribers that MLB.tv can get. I think any team with any deal is going to make more riding that deal out to the end than under streaming. I also think dividing that revenue between teams is going to be a nightmare
There's not much money in MLB.tv.  Local in market rights will be packaged and sold to someone like Google, Amazon or Apple.  All teams need to build a future revenue stream.