Author Topic: The Nats are...For Sale?!?  (Read 28141 times)

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Offline Five Banners

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Re: The Nats are...For Sale?!?
« Reply #650: November 29, 2022, 06:27:32 PM »
i can't find the picture, but i just thought he didn't look very good, he looked like he put on a lot of weight.

Gotcha

Offline rileyn

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Re: The Nats are...For Sale?!?
« Reply #651: December 04, 2022, 07:53:09 AM »
Is there any news on the pending sale?  Anything?  Or are we just doomed to be a non-entity for the next couple seasons as the MASN dispute continues to drag?

Online imref

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Re: The Nats are...For Sale?!?
« Reply #652: December 04, 2022, 08:03:03 AM »
Orioles are waiting to see what happens after the Milky Way collided with andromeda before making any settlement offer.

Online imref

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Re: The Nats are...For Sale?!?
« Reply #653: December 06, 2022, 04:02:23 PM »
Manfred at the winter meetings:

Quote
The RSN model as it exists today is probably not sustainable over the long haul...when you accept that as a reality, it creates an opportunity for conversations between clubs, content owners, broadcast entities, RSNs, & distributors as to how that is going to be shuffled. There is an ongoing process, conversations among the major players directed trying to come up with a new model that's more sustainable and, most important from our perspective, gives us better reach in terms of fans being able to get games, whether they're in the bubble or out.

Offline madj55

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Re: The Nats are...For Sale?!?
« Reply #654: December 06, 2022, 04:28:03 PM »
Manfred also said he expects the Angels to be sold by Opening Day and there is no timeline in sight for the Nats.

Offline hammondsnats

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Re: The Nats are...For Sale?!?
« Reply #655: December 06, 2022, 08:06:00 PM »
They need to hurry the hell up and sell.  LAC.

Offline machpost

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Re: The Nats are...For Sale?!?
« Reply #656: December 07, 2022, 10:16:46 AM »
Manfred at the winter meetings:


It's kind of hard to imagine all the "major players" just falling in line and accepting the realities of media rights in this day and age. I think it'll be anything but a smooth transition to whatever the future holds. These rights holders aren't going to cede anything to the league without a long, drawn out fight, and I get the impression that Manfred expects dramatic, sweeping changes to the media landscape.

Offline Ali the Baseball Cat

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Re: The Nats are...For Sale?!?
« Reply #657: December 07, 2022, 10:39:22 AM »
Unicorn sighting  :shock:
They need to hurry the hell up and sell.  LAC.

Offline catocony

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Re: The Nats are...For Sale?!?
« Reply #658: December 07, 2022, 10:54:44 AM »
It's kind of hard to imagine all the "major players" just falling in line and accepting the realities of media rights in this day and age. I think it'll be anything but a smooth transition to whatever the future holds. These rights holders aren't going to cede anything to the league without a long, drawn out fight, and I get the impression that Manfred expects dramatic, sweeping changes to the media landscape.

It's somewhat amazing that the NFL got it right many decades ago. 

Online nfotiu

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Re: The Nats are...For Sale?!?
« Reply #659: December 07, 2022, 02:08:27 PM »
It's kind of hard to imagine all the "major players" just falling in line and accepting the realities of media rights in this day and age. I think it'll be anything but a smooth transition to whatever the future holds. These rights holders aren't going to cede anything to the league without a long, drawn out fight, and I get the impression that Manfred expects dramatic, sweeping changes to the media landscape.
It's coming to a head.  Sinclair has the majority of TV deals through their subsidiary Diamond sports which run the Bally Sports Nets.   Their creditors have organized and booted out Sinclair as having managing control.   Most of the better articles about this are paywalled, but it sounds like Sinclair and MLB are not on speaking terms, and the subsidiary has named a CEO to try to work out some kind of master deal with MLB.   Outside of that, most of the RSNs left are the team owned ones and the Dodgers ridiculous agreement that they have a stake in.

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Re: The Nats are...For Sale?!?
« Reply #660: December 07, 2022, 02:09:37 PM »
It's somewhat amazing that the NFL got it right many decades ago. 
Completely different model of all national contracts.  The RSN model was extremely lucrative while it lasted, but yeah, figuring out what to do now is a challenge now that the model imploded.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: The Nats are...For Sale?!?
« Reply #661: December 07, 2022, 02:16:07 PM »
It's somewhat amazing that the NFL got it right many decades ago. 
Really owes a lot to Wellington Mara.  The Giants could have gone their own way with broadcasting but he decided instead to commit to splitting the TV money among all the teams. 

Online HalfSmokes

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Re: The Nats are...For Sale?!?
« Reply #662: December 07, 2022, 02:39:38 PM »
It's coming to a head.  Sinclair has the majority of TV deals through their subsidiary Diamond sports which run the Bally Sports Nets.   Their creditors have organized and booted out Sinclair as having managing control.   Most of the better articles about this are paywalled, but it sounds like Sinclair and MLB are not on speaking terms, and the subsidiary has named a CEO to try to work out some kind of master deal with MLB.   Outside of that, most of the RSNs left are the team owned ones and the Dodgers ridiculous agreement that they have a stake in.

It's going to get ugly. The worst fights in baseball haven't been labor vs management, they've been rich vs poor clubs. I don't see how they can enter into an equitable master agreement that won't have other clubs refusing to sign on. Even within the Sinclair clubs, you have teams with absurd deals and teams that are relatively underpaid - does the mlb stepping in equalize that? If not, the small teams getting less will say no, if it does the teams with the better deals will say no. How does the mlb treat Boston and New York with NESN and YES? do they make them accept the same terms or do they pay them what they're worth, or do the leave them on the outside? Then there's MASN, do you see the Lerners agreeing to bail out the Rockies while they're still stuck with MASN? Do you see the Os agreeing to roll the whole thing into an MLB product and pay the Nats and Os equally? 

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Re: The Nats are...For Sale?!?
« Reply #663: December 07, 2022, 05:14:18 PM »
It's going to get ugly. The worst fights in baseball haven't been labor vs management, they've been rich vs poor clubs. I don't see how they can enter into an equitable master agreement that won't have other clubs refusing to sign on. Even within the Sinclair clubs, you have teams with absurd deals and teams that are relatively underpaid - does the mlb stepping in equalize that? If not, the small teams getting less will say no, if it does the teams with the better deals will say no. How does the mlb treat Boston and New York with NESN and YES? do they make them accept the same terms or do they pay them what they're worth, or do the leave them on the outside? Then there's MASN, do you see the Lerners agreeing to bail out the Rockies while they're still stuck with MASN? Do you see the Os agreeing to roll the whole thing into an MLB product and pay the Nats and Os equally? 

It can make the resets in the MASN deal even more complicated too.   The new Sinclair Diamond Sports board is warning MLB that a bankruptcy will be very bad for them, so they are trying to figure out an arrangement.   Bally sports nets will either go bankrupt, renegotiate a lower fee with them teams across the board, get individually sold to the teams, or MLB will take them all over.   In all those circumstances, the comparable TV deals the MASN resets are based on will go down somewhat significantly.   It just adds another reason for Angelos to hold out.

NESN and YES will wind down in carriage fees too, but it will be a softer landing.   I think the Dodgers deal was already written off in one of the mergers, so they are basically going to be paid out for the full 20 years before they have to worry.

Online HalfSmokes

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Re: The Nats are...For Sale?!?
« Reply #664: December 07, 2022, 05:32:12 PM »
It can make the resets in the MASN deal even more complicated too.   The new Sinclair Diamond Sports board is warning MLB that a bankruptcy will be very bad for them, so they are trying to figure out an arrangement.   Bally sports nets will either go bankrupt, renegotiate a lower fee with them teams across the board, get individually sold to the teams, or MLB will take them all over.   In all those circumstances, the comparable TV deals the MASN resets are based on will go down somewhat significantly.   It just adds another reason for Angelos to hold out.

NESN and YES will wind down in carriage fees too, but it will be a softer landing.   I think the Dodgers deal was already written off in one of the mergers, so they are basically going to be paid out for the full 20 years before they have to worry.

They need to offer in market streaming through the mlb app (thank god they shot down Sinclair’s app idea), but whoever has to untangle rights fees to make it happen has an impossible job

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Re: The Nats are...For Sale?!?
« Reply #665: December 07, 2022, 07:18:58 PM »
They need to offer in market streaming through the mlb app (thank god they shot down Sinclair’s app idea), but whoever has to untangle rights fees to make it happen has an impossible job
I don't think that is the end game, although it would be the most fan friendly.    I'm guessing selling in market local games to someone like Apple TV like MLS does, or Amazon, ESPN+ or Peacock/HBO/Netflix and get a bid of a bidding war from the streaming co's trying to spend on content.   MLB taking over the sinclair networks would probably be the first domino to that happening.

Online HalfSmokes

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Re: The Nats are...For Sale?!?
« Reply #666: December 07, 2022, 07:37:17 PM »
I don't think that is the end game, although it would be the most fan friendly.    I'm guessing selling in market local games to someone like Apple TV like MLS does, or Amazon, ESPN+ or Peacock/HBO/Netflix and get a bid of a bidding war from the streaming co's trying to spend on content.   MLB taking over the sinclair networks would probably be the first domino to that happening.

Without in market, I doubt the streamers would want the package. It doesn’t seem like Friday night baseball was much of a success. 

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Re: The Nats are...For Sale?!?
« Reply #667: December 07, 2022, 08:44:07 PM »
Without in market, I doubt the streamers would want the package. It doesn’t seem like Friday night baseball was much of a success. 
I meant all in market and out of market games like MLS's Apple deal.

Say MLB took over the Sinclair sports nets.   They could continue to ollect some carriage fees on the RSNs while they wind down, and sell in/out of market package of those teams to Amazon or someone.   The NBC sports nets would love to give themselves away to MLB as well, or at least take a big cut in rights fees for exchange for not fighting in market streaming deals.   AT&T wants to get out as well.   That's a 21 team package of in market games they could sell to a streamer.

It's hard to figure how the Dodgers and team owned RSNs do.  I'm sure the teams who own their RSNs are looking for a way to monetize streaming and could be convinced to sell their streaming rights while collecting the declining carriage fees.   It could well end up an in market streaming package that includes all games except the Dodgers (and maybe Nats and Orioles!).   

Offline catocony

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Re: The Nats are...For Sale?!?
« Reply #668: December 07, 2022, 09:22:22 PM »
So people who don't have broadband don't get to watch baseball anymore?

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Re: The Nats are...For Sale?!?
« Reply #669: December 07, 2022, 10:09:10 PM »
So people who don't have broadband don't get to watch baseball anymore?
Not at all.   My scenarios have the RSNs owned by MLB or teams so they can continue to bring in revenue while their subscribers decline.  Because they own them, they can also sell exclusive streaming rights and accept the loss of leverage with Cable/Sat companies in negotiating carriage fees.

Offline catocony

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Re: The Nats are...For Sale?!?
« Reply #670: December 08, 2022, 12:36:52 AM »
Two problems.  One, MLB would have to buy TV rights from all 30 squads.  Two, MLB has never owned a distribution network, and baseball is just one piece of what RSNs do.  NBA, NHL, etc have more content than MLB does.  They're not going to want distribution owned by another sports league.

Online HalfSmokes

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Re: The Nats are...For Sale?!?
« Reply #671: December 08, 2022, 11:24:29 AM »
Two problems.  One, MLB would have to buy TV rights from all 30 squads.  Two, MLB has never owned a distribution network, and baseball is just one piece of what RSNs do.  NBA, NHL, etc have more content than MLB does.  They're not going to want distribution owned by another sports league.

 The MLB app already streams out of network games and is a great product.

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Re: The Nats are...For Sale?!?
« Reply #672: December 08, 2022, 12:37:47 PM »
The MLB app already streams out of network games and is a great product.
The only problem is the revenue side of things.   What's the ceiling on revenue for the MLB app?   2 million subscribers if all in market games were included would be a pretty big success, and definitely on the optimistic side of things.   That's only 300 million/year.   The RSNs are bringing in around 3 billion/year.   So that is a drop in the bucket.

It's not great for growing your audience if the primary method of watching is getting people to buy your app.    Look at Thursday Night Football.  Everyone who goes to Amazon sees ads promoting the countdown to the game.  People who watch the game go through the Amazon app or webpage and there is exposure and value added to both Amazon and the NFL.

A full MLB in market package could be worth a lot more to Amazon than the amount people would pay for MLB, and it would be a lot better for MLB if people start seeing promos for games on Amazon and can spontaneously watch games without buying anything else.

Online HalfSmokes

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Re: The Nats are...For Sale?!?
« Reply #673: December 08, 2022, 03:52:56 PM »
The only problem is the revenue side of things.   What's the ceiling on revenue for the MLB app?   2 million subscribers if all in market games were included would be a pretty big success, and definitely on the optimistic side of things.   That's only 300 million/year.   The RSNs are bringing in around 3 billion/year.   So that is a drop in the bucket.

It's not great for growing your audience if the primary method of watching is getting people to buy your app.    Look at Thursday Night Football.  Everyone who goes to Amazon sees ads promoting the countdown to the game.  People who watch the game go through the Amazon app or webpage and there is exposure and value added to both Amazon and the NFL.

A full MLB in market package could be worth a lot more to Amazon than the amount people would pay for MLB, and it would be a lot better for MLB if people start seeing promos for games on Amazon and can spontaneously watch games without buying anything else.

I'm sure Amazon paying a fortune is the hope, but ratings for national baseball games are terrible. I don't see any way that the MLB gets a deal that comes remotely close to replacing RSN money- remember RSN ratings are also terrible, but cable companies felt they had to carry the networks and then passed the money onto subscribers. It's one of the reasons that cable packages go so expensive. I see no world where Amazon/Netflix/Apple gives baseball a similar deal.

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Re: The Nats are...For Sale?!?
« Reply #674: December 08, 2022, 04:44:13 PM »
I'm sure Amazon paying a fortune is the hope, but ratings for national baseball games are terrible. I don't see any way that the MLB gets a deal that comes remotely close to replacing RSN money- remember RSN ratings are also terrible, but cable companies felt they had to carry the networks and then passed the money onto subscribers. It's one of the reasons that cable packages go so expensive. I see no world where Amazon/Netflix/Apple gives baseball a similar deal.
Yeah, we converse back and forth on this stuff all the time.   I understand the RSN model well.   It's the reason that it isn't a sustainable revenue source.   They're not going to get 3 billion from an Amazon, but they may well get significantly more than the ceiling of what people will pay for the MLB app, and they will be able to promote the game more.