Author Topic: The Nats are...For Sale?!?  (Read 26959 times)

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Offline Senatorswin

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Re: The Nats are...For Sale?!?
« Reply #850: February 19, 2024, 08:07:53 PM »
Eh, if the Lerners are like this next offseason, I will abandon all hope.

I agree. This season is about seeing what you have. Who's a keeper, where will they need help. Next offseason they need to step up to the plate.


Offline machpost

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Re: The Nats are...For Sale?!?
« Reply #852: February 20, 2024, 08:15:19 AM »
Bowden would have Trevor Bauer starting opening day.
Elijah Dukes, Nyjer Morgan, Dmitri Young and Robert Fick would be on the coaching staff.

Offline imref

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Re: The Nats are...For Sale?!?
« Reply #853: February 20, 2024, 09:59:15 AM »
I guess we can hope the Lerners decided not to spend this year on the idea that they would be ready to spend next year after presumably House, Cavalli, and Crews all arrive.

But i'm not optimistic.

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: The Nats are...For Sale?!?
« Reply #854: February 20, 2024, 12:03:14 PM »
I guess we can hope the Lerners decided not to spend this year on the idea that they would be ready to spend next year after presumably House, Cavalli, and Crews all arrive.

But i'm not optimistic.
It's also convenient that Corbin's contract rolls off after this year. That's about $15 million less in payroll even after the $10 million to be paid next year (his final $35 million is spread $25 million this year and $10 million next). They could spend that $15 million plus the Gallo / Floro / Senzel money (another $10 million) and not even increase the budget for FAs. Some of that will be eaten by arbitration, I suppose, but that may get offset with more deadline deals.

Offline Smithian

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Re: The Nats are...For Sale?!?
« Reply #855: February 20, 2024, 01:37:31 PM »
I agree. This season is about seeing what you have. Who's a keeper, where will they need help. Next offseason they need to step up to the plate.
I bought that in 2022. Sort of bought it in 2023. I don't buy it in 2024.

I am getting the idea the Lerner family, for all their easily apparent enjoyment of baseball, just doesn't have the financial bandwidth to go in like they did in latter half of the 2010's. I don't know if that bandwidth is lack of money or the lack of a central force like Ted Lerner who can step up and make unilateral decisions.

I actually liked the Lerners even if the darker days and appreciated their patience and commitment. I wasn't surprised when the Nationals payroll entered the Top 10 and ultimately the Top 5. But it is clear the Lerner family this decade is in a different place.

Online IanRubbish

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Re: The Nats are...For Sale?!?
« Reply #856: February 21, 2024, 11:25:15 PM »
I am getting the idea the Lerner family, for all their easily apparent enjoyment of baseball, just doesn't have the financial bandwidth to go in like they did in latter half of the 2010's.

Even then they were deferring like no one's business.  The original 2016 Strasburg contract would have paid him $70 million after it expired in 2023.  Basically they'd still owe that much now even if he had signed somewhere else after 2019, which makes their current reaction to him even more ridiculous.   Max's 2015 contract was 50% deferred, with 14 years of payments through 2028.  They also back loaded Corbin's contract with $35 million of the $140 million coming this year and after it ends next year, and just a total of $22 million in the first two seasons.   Rendon thankfully turned them down in 2019 due to their demand for deferrals, and Harper's $300 million offer in 2018 apparently included $100 million in deferrals. 

They knew they were putting the payroll on a credit card and that these would be lean years when they made those deals.  The issue now is that with so many teams making the playoffs, you can aim for mediocre and good things can happen.  The Diamondbacks were outscored last year and still make the World Series.  Tanking is not what it used to be when most average or even just below average teams are now in contention the last week of the season.  But now what's the purpose?  One more high draft pick is not worth this.  These people are cheap idiots and the impact this has already had on a fanbase ready to embrace the team after the '19 run will take many years to fix.

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: The Nats are...For Sale?!?
« Reply #857: February 22, 2024, 08:38:31 AM »
I think I saw their peak attendance year was 2013. That roughly coincides with WNFF's peak year for posts. They were down something like 800-900,000 from peak in 2023.

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: The Nats are...For Sale?!?
« Reply #858: February 22, 2024, 08:44:49 AM »
One more high draft pick is probably worth if the alternative was a .500 season and not ready to compete for the playoffs. The best would be to sign guys to one or two year deals and then trade them if you aren’t in the race. 

I’m gloomy about the future but we won’t know for sure about the Lerners plans until next off-season. 

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: The Nats are...For Sale?!?
« Reply #859: February 22, 2024, 09:40:31 AM »
One more high draft pick is probably worth if the alternative was a .500 season and not ready to compete for the playoffs. The best would be to sign guys to one or two year deals and then trade them if you aren’t in the race. 

I’m gloomy about the future but we won’t know for sure about the Lerners plans until next off-season. 

I’ve heard the same for a couple of years now. We’re the Pirates. Competent rebuilds don’t require 100 loss seasons and don’t need to last this long.

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: The Nats are...For Sale?!?
« Reply #860: February 22, 2024, 11:32:00 AM »
I’ve heard the same for a couple of years now. We’re the Pirates. Competent rebuilds don’t require 100 loss seasons and don’t need to last this long.
No they should not take that long.  But the previous years are history.  No big name was coming to DC this year. The fare hinges on the prospects developing and then they can fill in a with a few free agents. 

Would it be better to finish with a top three pick in next year’s draft or to win 75 games this year?

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: The Nats are...For Sale?!?
« Reply #861: February 22, 2024, 11:54:07 AM »
No they should not take that long.  But the previous years are history.  No big name was coming to DC this year. The fare hinges on the prospects developing and then they can fill in a with a few free agents. 

Would it be better to finish with a top three pick in next year’s draft or to win 75 games this year?

75 wins means young guys are improving at the major league level. It's much easier to get a 75 win team to 87 wins than it is to get a 100 loss team there

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: The Nats are...For Sale?!?
« Reply #862: February 22, 2024, 12:06:01 PM »
75 wins means young guys are improving at the major league level. It's much easier to get a 75 win team to 87 wins than it is to get a 100 loss team there
How many guys in the regular lineup this year will be there two or three years from now?  2 or 3 maybe.  It’s not 2011.

Offline Senatorswin

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Re: The Nats are...For Sale?!?
« Reply #863: February 22, 2024, 12:21:24 PM »
How many guys in the regular lineup this year will be there two or three years from now?  2 or 3 maybe.  It’s not 2011.

If things go as planned in two years:

Left side of the infield will be House and Abrams.
Crews and Wood two starters in the outfield.
Ruiz behind the plate.
Gore, Gray, Cavalli in the rotation.

Hopefully:

Meneses regains power
Garcia plays like he did after being recalled from the minors.
Robles fulfills his promise from when he was coming up in the minors.
Rutledge can pitch
Thomas keeps improving.
One of the other outfield prospects comes through.

Offline imref

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Re: The Nats are...For Sale?!?
« Reply #864: February 22, 2024, 12:21:33 PM »
How many guys in the regular lineup this year will be there two or three years from now?  2 or 3 maybe.  It’s not 2011.
Ruiz, Gray, Irvin, Rutledge, Gore, Cavalli? But this team could look very different by year's end assuming Crews, House, Wood, and maybe Morales arrive this year.

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: The Nats are...For Sale?!?
« Reply #865: February 22, 2024, 12:25:09 PM »
I think it’s fairly likely that Abrams and Ruiz are the only two everyday players who will be in the lineup in three years.  Anyone called up this year will be happy to play and won’t be scarred by some losses. 

The build up of the team before 2012 was steady but all rebuilds don’t go that way. 

Offline imref

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Re: The Nats are...For Sale?!?
« Reply #866: February 22, 2024, 12:32:15 PM »
yeah, Abrams too :)

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: The Nats are...For Sale?!?
« Reply #867: February 22, 2024, 12:32:26 PM »
How many guys in the regular lineup this year will be there two or three years from now?  2 or 3 maybe.  It’s not 2011.

We're coming off of four straight last place in the division finishes. If we only have 3 guys who will be here 3 years from now, Rizzo needs to have been fired yesterday

Online Slateman

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Re: The Nats are...For Sale?!?
« Reply #868: February 22, 2024, 12:38:22 PM »
I think it’s fairly likely that Abrams and Ruiz are the only two everyday players who will be in the lineup in three years.  Anyone called up this year will be happy to play and won’t be scarred by some losses. 

The build up of the team before 2012 was steady but all rebuilds don’t go that way. 
If Crews isnt an everyday player in two years, thats a monumental bust of a pick.

Offline imref

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Re: The Nats are...For Sale?!?
« Reply #869: February 22, 2024, 12:41:08 PM »
If Crews isnt an everyday player in August two years, thats a monumental bust of a pick.

FIFY

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: The Nats are...For Sale?!?
« Reply #870: February 22, 2024, 12:55:23 PM »
If Crews isnt an everyday player in two years, thats a monumental bust of a pick.
Yes but he won’t be in the lineup to start this year. That’s my point.

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: The Nats are...For Sale?!?
« Reply #871: February 22, 2024, 01:00:47 PM »
Ruiz, Gray, Irvin, Rutledge, Gore, Cavalli? But this team could look very different by year's end assuming Crews, House, Wood, and maybe Morales arrive this year.
Abrams too.

The other thing I'd say is that the class whose free agency is after 2025 has some guys who are major leaguers and will be playing somewhere if not here in 2026. Thomas I think will have a career, and as long as the arms of Harvey, Finnegan, and Rainey hold up, they will have jobs.

Flipping things around, I think the guys who aren't major league starting players who will be starting for this team are Senzel, CF, Garcia, and Meneses, and I would not be surprised if 1 or 2 beat my expectations.