Here Come the Astros

[Slateman]

So LHPs are bad?   Interesting.

Against a team that crushes LHP, probably.

[vicki4471]

I Looooooooooooooooooooooooooove this so much

https://russianmachineneverbreaks.com/2019/10/21/ahead-of-world-series-fan-re-creates-friends-intro-with-washington-nationals-players/
 scroll down to the video and watch it.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I think the Nats don't really crush lefties much more than righties. At least the stats don't show it.  By wRC+, NAts are average v. Righties and 11% above average v lhp. You think the Astros would want a match up lefty for Soto like the Dodgers had if they had someone like that.

[Copecwby20]

Not a betting man but I put $100 on the Nats to  win the series. They had some kind of bonus and I had another $50 in my account. So I bet that to win $500 if the Nats are up 3 games to 0.

I put $10.00 on them before the season. Odds were 13/1.

[Natsinpwc]

I put $10.00 on them before the season. Odds were 13/1.

Good bet. May we both win! 

[Natsinpwc]

Against a team that crushes LHP, probably.

So which great lefties did they leave off the roster?

[imref]

So which great lefties did they leave off the roster?

None, they don't have a single LHP on their 40 man roster.

[Natsinpwc]

None, they don't have a single LHP on their 40 man roster.

Wade Miley. They signed him for 4.5 million so he could suck and they would need to leave him off the roster. A brilliant analytics based move for sure.

[RobDibblesGhost]

I put $10.00 on them before the season. Odds were 13/1.

Same here, back in January. It was +2000 (20/1).

[djbaseball13]

There may be a statistical argument around pitching Sanchez against Cole and going with the big three afterwards, but that is why decisions are not made by computers alone.

You never know when Cole will have an off night. More importantly, baseball is a game of habit. If Dave Martinez walked in the clubhouse over the break and said, "We are going with Sanchez in Game 1" it would have caused confusion and taken the team out of their zone. Let the Astros be afraid of playoff Strasburg, I want our Big 3 going Games 1, 2, and 3.

To be the best, you have to beat the best!  I hate to say it, but the 1994 Houston Rockets have an * next to their championship because Michael Jordan wasn't playing. As it turned out,  the Bulls won more titles after Jordan returned from baseball. So, we can't worry about Cole. They have Cole and Verlander, we have Max and Stras!  Let's play ball!

[GNatsNoMore]

I know it has worked so far, but I don't like using our starters as bullpen pieces unless we hit elimination games. This isn't the NLDS, a 7 games is a long time.

I would stick strictly to the bullpen until we hit an elimination game, then every single hand on deck. If they're going to be calling on any of our starters as relievers then they should have dropped Suero and Ross for Stevenson/Difo and Read.

I agree.  If Rainey continues to be reliable with a bit more work, it shouldn't be a problem.  Save the starters as relievers until game 6 and game 7 (unless we face an elimination game earlier).

[djbaseball13]

I know it has worked so far, but I don't like using our starters as bullpen pieces unless we hit elimination games. This isn't the NLDS, a 7 games is a long time.

I would stick strictly to the bullpen until we hit an elimination game, then every single hand on deck. If they're going to be calling on any of our starters as relievers then they should have dropped Suero and Ross for Stevenson/Difo and Read.

I agree with you.  The speculation is that Corbin might be the starter used in relief if the situation calls for a lefty. Maybe that will happen?  But, we need our starters to prepare for their starts so they are 100%-no excuses.  With the DH in place for game 1 and 2, Davey doesn't have to pinch hit for Max or Stras. So, thats 1 less reason to take them out!

[mitlen]

I agree with you.  The speculation is that Corbin might be the starter used in relief if the situation calls for a lefty. Maybe that will happen?  But, we need our starters to prepare for their starts so they are 100%-no excuses.  With the DH in place for game 1 and 2, Davey doesn't have to pinch hit for Max or Stras. So, thats 1 less reason to take them out!

Corbin was on MLB Network in the last hour or so.    When asked, he said he's available for whatever role the Nats choose.     Sounded like he almost expects/plans to be called.

[GNatsNoMore]

Guy on MLB just predicted Astros in 5.   
It's great being the underdog though.  It worked with the Dodgers!

[tenken627]

Guy on MLB just predicted Astros in 5.   
It's great being the underdog though.  It worked with the Dodgers!

Kevin Millar on MLB Intentional Talk just went with the Nats! 

[Jay]

I don't think four mediocre (and that's being kind) relievers are needed. Three mediocre relievers would have been plenty. I would have preferred to see Stevenson on the roster. Remember, we are down one pinch hitter in the games in Houston. Once again, however, Davey decided not to call me for my opinion. Turns out he's a genius anyway, so why should he?

[Natsinpwc]

I want to change my prediction. Slate convinced me there is no way we beat a team with no left handed pitchers. 

[bluestreak]

I don't think four mediocre (and that's being kind) relievers are needed. Three mediocre relievers would have been plenty. I would have preferred to see Stevenson on the roster. Remember, we are down one pinch hitter in the games in Houston. Once again, however, Davey decided not to call me for my opinion. Turns out he's a genius anyway, so why should he?

You don’t need as many pinch hitters if the pitcher isn’t batting.

[GNatsNoMore]

I've been thinking the last couple of days that one of the keys for the Nats, especially when we are facing Cole or Verlander, could be our speed and "manufacturing" a few runs.  MLB mentioned briefly that Turner could be a key.  I'm thinking that a few times during the Series, Turner, Eaton or Robles (or even Taylor) could lead off an inning and walk or get a single.  They could steal second, get to third on a groundout, and score on a sac fly.  I'm sure the Nats will hit some doubles and HRs, but it would be great to "steal" one or two games through great pitching, defense and small ball offensively.  We had a decent number of SBs during the regular season. 

Also, I'd love to see Robles throw a bullet from CF to home to kill an Astros rally.      (Preferably tonight or tomorrow)!  Why not?  He's done it before.

[djbaseball13]

I've been thinking the last couple of days that one of the keys for the Nats, especially when we are facing Cole or Verlander, could be our speed and "manufacturing" a few runs.  MLB mentioned briefly that Turner could be a key.  I'm thinking that a few times during the Series, Turner, Eaton or Robles (or even Taylor) could lead off an inning and walk or get a single.  They could steal second, get to third on a groundout, and score on a sac fly.  I'm sure the Nats will hit some doubles and HRs, but it would be great to "steal" one or two games through great pitching, defense and small ball offensively.  We had a decent number of SBs during the regular season. 

Also, I'd love to see Robles throw a bullet from CF to home to kill an Astros rally.      (Preferably tonight or tomorrow)!  Why not?  He's done it before.

I think Turner and/or Eaton will be a big factor throughout the series. getting on base sets up the big guys, and puts extra pressure on Astros starters. We need those 2 guys to get on base!

[Smithian]

wow, punting a game because people are terrified of Gerrit Cole!

The Astros should duck Strasburg and try to fight it out in DC

[Smithian]

Can someone with a firmer grip on baseball analytics tell me the statistical reasoning for the Astros not to carry a LHP against Juan Soto? And going forward not to send him down to first with a free pass when he has RISP?

Nerds played themselves tonight.

[imref]

Can someone with a firmer grip on baseball analytics tell me the statistical reasoning for the Astros not to carry a LHP against Juan Soto? And going forward not to send him down to first with a free pass when he has RISP?

Nerds played themselves tonight.

Soto has a slightly higher BA against LHPs this year.

[DCFan]

Can someone with a firmer grip on baseball analytics tell me the statistical reasoning for the Astros not to carry a LHP against Juan Soto?

Because Cole is a baseball god.  Or so the Astros thought. 

[Count Walewski]

Can someone with a firmer grip on baseball analytics tell me the statistical reasoning for the Astros not to carry a LHP against Juan Soto? And going forward not to send him down to first with a free pass when he has RISP?

Nerds played themselves tonight.

Nerds HATE the intentional walk. There's literally a columnist on Fangraphs who does an article after every intentional walk in the playoffs, analyzing whether it was a smart move, and he almost always ends up saying no.