POLL: UPDATED: Bryce's team in 2019 will be.....

[Greg_SRT]

The only real comp for a long contract for Harper is A-Rod when he signed is first free agent contract. And he certainly performed over the life of that contract.

It’s unclear to me why people see opt outs as universally bad.  Say Harper signs a 10 year contract. The options are no opt out vs opt out after say 4 years.

Now if he gets injured or otherwise ends up as a crap performer, it doesn’t really matter. Under either option the team is screwed.
But if he performs well and opts out, what have you lost? You’ve gotten 4 years or excellent play, which were likely cheaper because you gave him the long contract and the opt out and you et someone else to overpay for what will be what would have been the decline portion of that contract.

There are plenty of examples that aren't 7+ years that still don't work out for a team.

It's not that Grenike hasn't pitched well, but Arizona is trying to rebuild. But Arizona had to give him the additional years for him to sign.

Honestly I could list more but it seems that many sign beyond 5 years either A) don't perform well through their entire contract or B) don't finish that contract with the team.

[bluestreak]

There are plenty of examples that aren't 7+ years that still don't work out for a team.

It's not that Grenike hasn't pitched well, but Arizona is trying to rebuild. But Arizona had to give him the additional years for him to sign.

Honestly I could list more but it seems that many sign beyond 5 years either A) don't perform well through their entire contract or B) don't finish that contract with the team.

How many good players have hit free agency at 26?

[Greg_SRT]

How many good players have hit free agency at 26?

I don’t follow... what’s the relevance?

It’s still the commitment of 10 years. A team in 10 years may rebuild more than once, go through 1 or more managers or GM’s. Many modern marriages don’t last 10 years.

10 years is a staggering commitment. Both to the team and player.

[bluestreak]

I don’t follow... what’s the relevance?

It’s still the commitment of 10 years. A team in 10 years may rebuild more than once, go through 1 or more managers or GM’s. Many modern marriages don’t last 10 years.

10 years is a staggering commitment. Both to the team and player.

Because the problem with long contracts isn’t the years, it’s the fact that at the end of long contracts players tend to be old and not performing. If Juan Soto wanted a ten year contract, you wouldn’t give it to him?
And if a guy is still performing he has value, whether you’re in win mode or in a rebuild. If you have a reasonable expectation a guy will be able to perform in 10 years you sign him. Especially when you consider inflation.

[sixthree175]

I don’t follow... what’s the relevance?

It’s still the commitment of 10 years. A team in 10 years may rebuild more than once, go through 1 or more managers or GM’s. Many modern marriages don’t last 10 years.

10 years is a staggering commitment. Both to the team and player.

That's the way I look at it for Machado, but not Harper.  Harper definitely benefits from a long term commitment, being that he's already established and respected here.  Even if the team has a bad year, he's The Man, especially after Scherzer is gone after the 2021 season.  And of course the Nats benefit due to the added revenue.

I think the Phillies would be willing to give Harper a long term contract, being that they're enamored of him for some reason.  But it's higher risk for them.

Machado is a different story -- nobody is giving Machado a 10-year contract.  I wouldn't be surprised if he gets only 5.   

[Greg_SRT]

Because the problem with long contracts isn’t the years, it’s the fact that at the end of long contracts players tend to be old and not performing. If Juan Soto wanted a ten year contract, you wouldn’t give it to him?
And if a guy is still performing he has value, whether you’re in win mode or in a rebuild. If you have a reasonable expectation a guy will be able to perform in 10 years you sign him. Especially when you consider inflation.

There are plenty of players and coach from many sports who are winners and champions, that lose their effectiveness or stop being elite, go to a new team and recapture it.

Verlander is an example.

[bluestreak]

There are plenty of players and coach from many sports who are winners and champions, that lose their effectiveness or stop being elite, go to a new team and recapture it.

Verlander is an example.

Justin Verlander was second in AL Cy Young voting (he actually got more first place votes than Porcello) and had a 7.2 WAR season in 2016, his last full season in Detroit before being traded to the Astros. The man did not need a change of scenery. He was still pitching at an insanely high level.

In fact Verlander is actually a good time example of what I’m talking about. He performs well and when the team wanted to rebuild, they traded him for 3 if the Astros top 11 prospects. 

[Greg_SRT]

Justin Verlander was second in AL Cy Young voting (he actually got more first place votes than Porcello) and had a 7.2 WAR season in 2016, his last full season in Detroit before being traded to the Astros. The man did not need a change of scenery. He was still pitching at an insanely high level.

In fact Verlander is actually a good time example of what I’m talking about. He performs well and when the team wanted to rebuild, they traded him for 3 if the Astros top 11 prospects.

Sigh

First I never said J.V. was trash.

Second if you know he finished second in 2016 A.L. Cy Young voting then you know he's stats.

2010 3.37 ERA
2011 2.40 ERA
2012 2.64 ERA
2013 3.46 ERA
2014 4.54 ERA
2015 3.38 ERA (Only 20 Starts)
2016 3.04 ERA
2017 3.82 ERA

2017 1.06 ERA (only 5 games)
2018 2.52 ERA

He is significantly better in Houston vs last 3 seasons in Detroit

[bluestreak]

Sigh

First I never said J.V. was trash.

Second if you know he finished second in 2016 A.L. Cy Young voting then you know he's stats.

2010 3.37 ERA
2011 2.40 ERA
2012 2.64 ERA
2013 3.46 ERA
2014 4.54 ERA
2015 3.38 ERA (Only 20 Starts)
2016 3.04 ERA
2017 3.82 ERA

2017 1.06 ERA (only 5 games)
2018 2.52 ERA

He is significantly better in Houston vs last 3 seasons in Detroit

Of Course he was. 2014 and 2015 he was injured. 2016 he lead the majors in strikeouts and had a 7 win season. He was elite.
In any case, Detroit is not worse off for signing him to that contract. Cabrera is a different story, but no one in baseball thought that contract would turn out well based on Miggy’s age and his body habitus.

[varoadking]

Was listening to 106.7 while driving around NOVA today.  Some "insider" mentioned that the rumor is that Royce will make his "announcement" with his picture in his new uniform on the cover of a 2019 baseball video game.

[Greg_SRT]

Was listening to 106.7 while driving around NOVA today.  Some "insider" mentioned that the rumor is that Royce will make his "announcement" with his picture in his new uniform on the cover of a 2019 baseball video game.

MLB the show.

That’s a rumor I heard weeks ago. Never seen it confirmed anywhere.

[Slateman]

JD also got an opt out after 2 years if he hits 40 HRs each year.  After last year, I'm not sure a Home Run bonus would work for Harper, but maybe one based on sophisticated measure like wOBA would make sense. 

Batting average. If he hits .300 in both years, he can opt out. Its really that simple. Bryce Harper comes into this season trying to win a batting title instead of the home run crown, and we make the playoffs.

[mitlen]

Was listening to 106.7 while driving around NOVA today.  Some "insider" mentioned that the rumor is that Royce will make his "announcement" with his picture in his new uniform on the cover of a 2019 baseball video game.

Lebron Harper

[varoadking]

Lebron Harper

I'm fine with it if he's  takin' his talents to Miami too!   

[mitlen]

I'm fine with it if he's  takin' his talents to Miami too!   

[aBaltoNat]

Batting average. If he hits .300 in both years, he can opt out. Its really that simple. Bryce Harper comes into this season trying to win a batting title instead of the home run crown, and we make the playoffs.

This is brilliant you dirty, usually incorrect troll, bastard.

[LoveAngelos]

That sounds so Bryvce.

Lebron Harper

[aBaltoNat]

https://www.sportstalkphilly.com/2019/01/could-we-expect-bryce-harper-announcement-on-super-bowl-sunday.html

[rileyn]

https://www.sportstalkphilly.com/2019/01/could-we-expect-bryce-harper-announcement-on-super-bowl-sunday.html

Well this certainly fits my theory that Harper already knows where it's going to be. 

[JCA-CrystalCity]

well, announcing the day after the Super Bowl kind of marks the US pro fan base's shift from football to baseball.  Didn't the NFL big foot a major MLB event about 5 years ago and p-off MLB?  OTOH, I think the focus stays on the SB winner rather than a signing at least until after the SB victory parade.  I mean, the the MVP or some player is going to be on with Colbert or Fallon the day after the SB, so holding until  2/3 or 2/4 kind of is bad marketing, I/M/O.  This week, or perhaps 2/7, makes more sense.

[aBaltoNat]

It all makes sense. He's definitely going to announce and part of that will be with the Show. Just depends on timing.

[HalfSmokes]

It all makes sense. He's definitely going to announce and part of that will be with the Show. Just depends on timing.

Lots of risk of that getting leaked prematurely

[sixthree175]

It all makes sense. He's definitely going to announce and part of that will be with the Show. Just depends on timing.

It would be anti-climactic to announce in front of half the world that he's staying with his old team.  If he makes a spectacle of it, then he's signing with the Phillies...
...I'm looking forward to a Robles/Soto/Eaton outfield.

[aBaltoNat]

It would be anti-climactic to announce in front of half the world that he's staying with his old team.  If he makes a spectacle of it, then he's signing with the Phillies...
...I'm looking forward to a Robles/Soto/Eaton outfield.

True. And if that's the case, he never intended to resign here. No way he thought his only options were us and the Phillies.

[bluestreak]

It would be anti-climactic to announce in front of half the world that he's staying with his old team.  If he makes a spectacle of it, then he's signing with the Phillies...
...I'm looking forward to a Robles/Soto/Eaton outfield.

The fact that yesterday’s event didn’t have one single mention of Bryce makes me think that something is in the works for the Nats. Just a hunch though.