Bryce Harper 2018 and beyond

[Mattionals]

If Nats sign Harper, you've got to think the Nats trade for Realmuto with Robles in the package. If the Nats don't sign Harper, they are probably big players for Yasmani Grandal, who you have to really figure out what his value is since he has had two really hot months, and four awful months. I don't think the Nats will have the ability to keep Robles AND also trade for a good catcher.

If you are the Nats, you need a reliable number 2/3, preferably lefty starter. In FA there is Corbin, who would be a great signing. Nats also need a catcher, of which there is Grandal in FA. Even Realmuto's numbers have dipped in the 2nd half, but there aren't any great options out there, and as Slate has pointed out in the past, Realmuto is much better away from Marlins Park.

[bluestreak]

If the Nats sign Harper and trade Robles, does Harper play CF? I don't think thats a good long term option for him or the team.

[fla nat]

Yeah, MAT either plays a lot or we trade him to someone that would play him a lot.
[/quote
Dusty seemed to get the most out of MAT. Dusty is now a special advisor to the CEO of the Giants. They have an immense center-field. I wonder if a trade could be worker out that could benefit both teams

[Ray D]

Don Mattingly played second for an inning or so in the early eighties.

Yeah, I meant more than on an emergency basis.  Sam McDowell did too.  Alvin Dark, Indians manager,  rather than pull Sudden Sam for a reliever against a right handed batter he had trouble with, would put him at second base for one batter (or sometimes for  a string of righthanded batters, and usually with no runner at first so he didn't have to worry about the double play) and then move him back to pitcher as soon as a lefthanded batter came up, or a righthander that he didn't have trouble with.  In fact I was at two games (in the 60s) when that happened. First time, he fielded a grounder cleanly. Second time, an error, and I'm not sure Dark ever tried it again after that.  But it was always fun to see it. In fact, it was always a thrill to watch him pitch.

[Ray D]

If Nats sign Harper, you've got to think the Nats trade for Realmuto

Yeah, gotta make Harper happy. After all, we would have won that game it we had had him.

[imref]

Yeah, gotta make Harper happy. After all, we would have won that game it we had had him.

we don't have the chips to get Realmuto unless we're wiling to part with Soto.  So... would Eaton/Robles/Harper in the OF with Realmuto behind the plate be better than Soto/Robles/Harper with generic .225 BA catcher behind the plate?  Or, say Ramos?

[skippy1999]

No way we should trade Soto for ANYONE.

[hotshot]

Robles? Did his value increase, stay the same, or decrease this season? From where his value stood last March.

Not fair, but I gotta say his value has slightly decreased.

[Mattionals]

we don't have the chips to get Realmuto unless we're wiling to part with Soto.  So... would Eaton/Robles/Harper in the OF with Realmuto behind the plate be better than Soto/Robles/Harper with generic .225 BA catcher behind the plate?  Or, say Ramos?

I think the Nats could get Realmuto with Robles AND Kieboom. Soto straight up is an overpay considering what his numbers were this season and how many years of control Soto has compared to Realmuto.

I think the argument is:
Soto/Harper/Eaton with Realmuto and hopefully Corbin and bullpen adds versus Soto/Robles/Eaton with Grandal and Corbin plus bullpen adds worth more?

[Mattionals]

Robles? Did his value increase, stay the same, or decrease this season? From where his value stood last March.

Not fair, but I gotta say his value has slightly decreased.

It's down because of the injury. Dude still showed his hit tool, speed tool, and defense tool this year. Power is coming back. He is still likely a 4-5 WAR a year CF. He could be Andrew McCutchen in his prime.

[LightningMcQueen]

I'm still not ready for Bryce to be playing for somebody else in 2019, but as each day goes by, I don't see him staying with the Nationals.

To be honest, I'd be crushed.

[Elvir Ovcina]

It's down because of the injury. Dude still showed his hit tool, speed tool, and defense tool this year. Power is coming back. He is still likely a 4-5 WAR a year CF. He could be Andrew McCutchen in his prime.

Man, I like your optimism.  What I'm seeing is a dude who looks like he needs another half season in the minors at least.   The injury was unfortunate.  Otherwise he might be ready, but he still looks like he needs the classic AAA seasoning - better routes in CF, more experience with seeing junk pitches in what are fastball counts in the lower minors.   He's only 22 next season, so plenty of time, of course.  But McCutchen is a heck of a high bar.  Dude was an absolute stud in his prime.

[Slateman]

you either get a make do guy for 2d or 3d, and count of Carter Kieboom.  Alternatively, you deal Rendon to a club that might be able to use him to get over the top for a year and maybe get a 2d/3d prospect back in the deal. 

Except Rendon is much more irreplaceable than Robles or Turner at this point. The other problem is what team is a Rendon away from a major push and has the prospects to deal for Rendon?

If the Nats sign Harper and trade Robles, does Harper play CF? I don't think thats a good long term option for him or the team.

Yes, until someone gets hurt.

Robles? Did his value increase, stay the same, or decrease this season? From where his value stood last March.

Not fair, but I gotta say his value has slightly decreased.

Same. He was ranked the same in prospect ratings. He will be a top 5 prospect next March. He has the highest ceiling of any prospect in baseball.

I think the Nats could get Realmuto with Robles AND Kieboom. Soto straight up is an overpay considering what his numbers were this season and how many years of control Soto has compared to Realmuto.

I think the argument is:
Soto/Harper/Eaton with Realmuto and hopefully Corbin and bullpen adds versus Soto/Robles/Eaton with Grandal and Corbin plus bullpen adds worth more?

I think re-signing Harper inhibits the ability to sign Corbin. Corbin will be a 20 million or more per year pitcher. He's showed promise before. I just don't think you can sink 50 million into two players and simply trade for the other pieces.

[Ray D]

we don't have the chips to get Realmuto unless we're wiling to part with Soto. ?

I was making a joke.  Harper insisting that we should have traded for him.   There's no way we keep Harper and get Realmuto.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Except Rendon is much more irreplaceable than Robles or Turner at this point. The other problem is what team is a Rendon away from a major push and has the prospects to deal for Rendon?

I say Rendon if Harper is signed because we cannot afford both him and the pitching FA and the catching FA we probably need.  I have not looked at lineups and figured out where to deal Rendon, but I think a season of a him is pretty valuable to teams with a short term need.  Could you get Rafael Devers?  Probably not, even though Rendon would be a big upgrade there.  I'd think at least one outfielder (eaton or robles) would probably also have to get dealt, too, were harper brought back.  Turner, OTOH, is still cheap, and you need 2 middle infielders.  Bottom line is, I think re-signing Harper messes up the line up and forces you to deal 2 players - an OF to take advantage of surplus and Rendon, who you can no longer afford.

Man, I like your optimism.  What I'm seeing is a dude who looks like he needs another half season in the minors at least.   The injury was unfortunate.  Otherwise he might be ready, but he still looks like he needs the classic AAA seasoning - better routes in CF, more experience with seeing junk pitches in what are fastball counts in the lower minors.   He's only 22 next season, so plenty of time, of course.  But McCutchen is a heck of a high bar.  Dude was an absolute stud in his prime.

I am also not sure Robles would not benefit from being down in the minors until close to mid-season, but you can go into next year with something like this year's plan - Taylor starts in CF until he fails, then Robles up.

[Mattionals]

I think re-signing Harper inhibits the ability to sign Corbin. Corbin will be a 20 million or more per year pitcher. He's showed promise before. I just don't think you can sink 50 million into two players and simply trade for the other pieces.

The smart money is on letting Harper go and signing Corbin, Holland, and Herrera. I think it's go for Grandal because without Robles AND Kieboom, Realmuto won't be headed to DC.

[sixthree175]

The smart money is on letting Harper go and signing Corbin, Holland, and Herrera. I think it's go for Grandal because without Robles AND Kieboom, Realmuto won't be headed to DC.

Realmuto is a mirage.  Even if he weren't,  he's under team control for only two more years.  Let him rot in Miami.   

[Expos]

The smart money is on letting Harper go and signing Corbin, Holland, and Herrera. I think it's go for Grandal because without Robles AND Kieboom, Realmuto won't be headed to DC.

19 innings is such a small sample size for Holland but I'd bring him back on a decent 1 year deal for around 5 mil.

Hellickson would be nice to have back as a dependable 5th starter or even a longman in the BP.

I'm not sure on Hererra. He didn't pitch so well here.

Grandal reeks of Matt Weiters desperation. No thanks.

I think Corbin made himself some money. 25 mil a year probably ly gets him and he would be an ideal replacement for Gio and would give us a solid rotation with Scherzer, Strasburg, Corbin, Ross and Hellickson with young guys like Fedde and Voth able to step in if needed. We just need our arms to stay healthy.

Collins, Miller, Grace, Holland, Doolittle is a nice looking group with young guys like Suero and Glover competing.

Re-sign - Holland, Hellickson
Sign - Corbin

Harper??

What do we do at 2B (Difo?) and catcher.

[Expos]

Soto - Robles - Harper

Man, that could be a deadly OF. Taylor as the 4th OF. Deal Eaton for a 2B or C.

Sign Corbin. Re-sign Hellickson and Holland.

Then stay healthy.

We have 80 some million coming off the books..

Harper 5 years, 200 million. Backloaded. 1st year @ 30M
Corbin 5 years, 130 million. 20M 1st year
Holland 1 year, 5M
Hellickson 1 year, 5M

60M give or take.

Eaton's salary gets us a C.
Difo and Kendrick split time at 2B
We still have money to extend Rendon if we want

[Slateman]

80 million coming off, except the Nats have

Strasburg increasing from 18 million to 35 million (80 million - 17 million
Scherzer 22 million to 37 million (63-15)
Ryan Zimmerman 14 to 18 (48-4)

So you're 80 million coming off the book is actually 44 million without any arbitration updates.

[hotshot]

It's down because of the injury. Dude still showed his hit tool, speed tool, and defense tool this year. Power is coming back. He is still likely a 4-5 WAR a year CF. He could be Andrew McCutchen in his prime.

That's what we hope for (a McCutcheon type)  but ... is that what potential trade partners still see.

Think Soto's success has also thrown shade on Robles -- from the standpoint of other teams thinking "The Nats couldn't possibly "hit" on two stellar prospects making it big in the majors at the same time."

[varoadking]

80 million coming off, except the Nats have

Strasburg increasing from 18 million to 35 million (80 million - 17 million
Scherzer 22 million to 37 million (63-15)
Ryan Zimmerman 14 to 18 (48-4)

So you're 80 million coming off the book is actually 44 million without any arbitration updates.

That's not looking at it from a salary cap perspective, is it?

[hotshot]

80 million coming off, except the Nats have

Strasburg increasing from 18 million to 35 million (80 million - 17 million
Scherzer 22 million to 37 million (63-15)
Ryan Zimmerman 14 to 18 (48-4)

So you're 80 million coming off the book is actually 44 million without any arbitration updates.

Stras is still very good (when he can actually take the mound). But seems apparent he's not among the elite pitchers in baseball, despite what his salary says.

[dcpatti]

That's not looking at it from a salary cap perspective, is it?

Nope. From a salary cap perspective, all those guys cost the same each year, except for any awards/bonuses they get. Max and Stras have bonuses paid for Cy Young votes, Zim for Silver Slugger etc.

[varoadking]

Nope. From a salary cap perspective, all those guys cost the same each year, except for any awards/bonuses they get. Max and Stras have bonuses paid for Cy Young votes, Zim for Silver Slugger etc.

Thanks...I thought we were guessing we'd have somewhere in the neighborhood of $64MM to play with after raises to guys like Rendon.  Why Roark would get a raise after his crappy season is beyond me...