Bryce Harper 2018 and beyond

[Natsinpwc]

It's because WAR isn't supposed to be used as an end-all metric to determine a players value.

Ok.

Career OPS.

Trout.  .990
Machado.  .821
Harper.  .899.

We know Harper is no match for Trout defensively whatever the metrics say. Machado plays infield which makes defensive comparisons difficult.  If he insists on playing SS that hurts him. Trout is just more valuable than either of the other two.

[Natsinpwc]

I agree. Smart folks use a bunch of stats. Like I like to use wRC+ in addition to OPS+ and WAR (I am not saying I am smart). But if you are going to use one stat to describe player value, I think WAR is the best we have available, despite it's flaws. it attempts to add in all facets of a ballplayer.

Offensive stats measure clearly what a guy does. Of course there are different ones to look at. Defensive metrics have more independent variables and will never be as believable for that reason.

[blue911]

Ok.

Career OPS.

Trout.  .990
Machado.  .821
Harper.  .899.

We know Harper is no match for Trout defensively whatever the metrics say. Machado plays infield which makes defensive comparisons difficult.  If he insists on playing SS that hurts him. Trout is just more valuable than either of the other two.

1) OPS is crap.
2) Trout isn't a free agent so it isn't an either/or situation.

[Natsinpwc]

1) OPS is crap.
2) Trout isn't a free agent so it isn't an either/or situation.

How is OPS crap? It builds in on base percentage and slugging. Why do GMs use it then?

I included Trout because the previous posts did. In case you hadn’t noticed that.

Here are the top ten OPS this year; seems a pretty good
Measure of offensive performance to me.

Trout
Betts
Martinez
Yelich
Yamirez
Brennan
Goldschmidt
Arenado
Judge
Rendon.

[blue911]

I agree. Smart folks use a bunch of stats. Like I like to use wRC+ in addition to OPS+ and WAR (I am not saying I am smart). But if you are going to use one stat to describe player value, I think WAR is the best we have available, despite it's flaws. it attempts to add in all facets of a ballplayer.

This is a freaking cop out. If your going to waste your time on a chat site, go out and figure out what stats measure what you believe is important attribute for a player. Ask questions of people that promote the crap, go to FG or BP functions, drink beer with Harry Pavlidis or Jason Parks or Mike Fast or Adam Kilgore or Barry Svrluga or Chelsea Janes or any number of baseball insiders that are more than willing to talk baseball. Their fans,hey like the game.

[blue911]

How is OPS crap? It builds in on base percentage and slugging. Why do GMs use it then?

I included Trout because the previous posts did. In case you hadn’t noticed that.

What does an OPS of .800 tell you?

[Natsinpwc]

What does an OPS of .800 tell you?

I believe the mlb average is .770. So it’s above average. Stats are only meaningful in comparison to the same stats for others.

Since you are an expert what stats should we be looking at?

[Slateman]

To prove you are not a robot, select all the squares that will not be playing for the Nationals next season

[blue911]

I believe the mlb average is .770. So it’s above average. Stats are only meaningful in comparison to the same stats for others.

Since you are an expert what stats should we be looking at?

I'm not an expert. But I want to know two things about his hitting. One is success or OBP the second is power or ISO. There are better ways to get into the nitty gritty but these two simple stats really do tell a great deal. If I wanted to get anal about his power I would look at his XBH % and groundball to flyball rate and line drive rate for good measure. Those are more for the is he lucky or is he good arguments.

[Natsinpwc]

I'm not an expert. But I want to know two things about his hitting. One is success or OBP the second is power or ISO. There are better ways to get into the nitty gritty but these two simple stats really do tell a great deal. If I wanted to get anal about his power I would look at his XBH % and groundball to flyball rate and line drive rate for good measure. Those are more for the is he lucky or is he good arguments.

Apparently you are expert enough to criticize others using OPS.

When I look at the OPS rankings looks to me like a good list. What do these other stats show. OPS is easy to understand. I dont know what ISO is and will admit that. I will continue to use stats I can find easily. May be there are better but unless someone shows me they yield much better results don’t see why Inwould want to use them instead.

[rileyn]

I think some unexpected team will make him a stupid offer he can’t refuse like the Padres did with Hosmer. The White Sox come to mind.

Texas Rangers.  He is going to be a Texas Ranger.

[bluestreak]

Apparently you are expert enough to criticize others using OPS.

When I look at the OPS rankings looks to me like a good list. What do these other stats show. OPS is easy to understand. I dont know what ISO is and will admit that. I will continue to use stats I can find easily. May be there are better but unless someone shows me they yield much better results don’t see why Inwould want to use them instead.

ISO is slugging minus batting average. Most of it is already included in the OPS. I like OPS+ because it includes park adjustment and is standardized so it’s easy to compare to average.
It’s a really good offensive stat.

[spidernat]

It's because WAR isn't supposed to be used as an end-all metric to determine a players value.

I just don't get the huge disparity between Trout and Harper. I know that Trout is by far the superior player but the gap reflected in the stat bs posted doesn't seem credible.

Weird, I know, and one of those things I was talking about, but it's right.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/harpebr03.shtml

Could it be a typo and it's actually 4.0 instead of 1.0?

[Natsinpwc]

ISO is slugging minus batting average. Most of it is already included in the OPS. I like OPS+ because it includes park adjustment and is standardized so it’s easy to compare to average.
It’s a really good offensive stat.

How do they calculate versus OPS?

[Natsinpwc]

I just don't get the huge disparity between Trout and Harper. I know that Trout is by far the superior player but the gap reflected in the stat bs posted doesn't seem credible.





Could it be a typo and it's actually 4.0 instead of 1.0?

Trout is much better.

Is it the defense that accounts for the big difference?

[spidernat]

Trout is much better.

Is it the defense that accounts for the big difference?

Defense cannot account for that much of a disparity.

[bluestreak]

Trout has an wRC+ Of 192. Harper 134 so a 66% difference. The Fact that Trout plays a premium position helps him significantly, but it’s mostly the huge difference in offensive production. Trout is also a much better base runner. And a much better defender. I don’t necessarily believe the baseball reference WAR, but Trout is a significantly better player this year.

[Natsinpwc]

Defense cannot account for that much of a disparity.

This was from earlier in the year--it did at that time; at least according to the guy who posted the calculations.  I believe baserunnin is factored in also and Trout is considered a superior baserunner.

https://www.reddit.com/r/baseball/comments/8ed0mm/serious_question_how_is_mike_trouts_war_21/

[spidernat]

Trout has an wRC+ Of 192. Harper 134 so a 66% difference.

I was told there would be no math.  Maybe Mathguy can explain.

[aBaltoNat]

Texas Rangers.  He is going to be a Texas Ranger.

I was saying the same thing to a coworker today. It makes sense...lots of money, closer to Vegas, no income tax and it's an AL team so he can DH full time starting in year 3 of his 10 year contract.

[dracnal]

I was told there would be no math.  Maybe Mathguy can explain.

I'm guessing it's absolutely the defense for that Baseball Reference number. Sparing you the numbers, Harper is the 2nd worst defender this year. Not sure if that's for outfielders, or period, but his range was WAY down and he didn't get to a lot of balls most people would. Best guess is he was just playing conservative to guarantee he didn't get hurt going into FA. He cost the team something like 25 runs compared to an average fielder.

[blue911]

I'm guessing it's absolutely the defense for that Baseball Reference number. Sparing you the numbers, Harper is the 2nd worst defender this year. Not sure if that's for outfielders, or period, but his range was WAY down and he didn't get to a lot of balls most people would. Best guess is he was just playing conservative to guarantee he didn't get hurt going into FA. He cost the team something like 25 runs compared to an average fielder.

Statcast has him at 12 outs below average. That's a hell of a leap to make for his defensive rating.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

How do they calculate versus OPS?

OPS has a double counting of batting average.  ISO drops batting average so it is a better measure of power.  You get credit for the extra bases and not the single.  It is an extra step to calculate (you do the subtraction from SLG) so it is a bit more work. 

[hotshot]

I was saying the same thing to a coworker today. It makes sense...lots of money, closer to Vegas, no income tax and it's an AL team so he can DH full time starting in year 3 of his 10 year contract.

New Rangers retractable dome park due to be ready for 2020 season. Until then ... if you have never experienced a summer in the Metroplex, there's simply no way to describe the hellish, night and day heat. Easily the worst playing conditions in MLB. 

[imref]

"From the first time I stepped foot in that stadium, they had my back ... they were behind me. I can't thank them enough.

I love DC and that's what it's all about." - Bryce Harper

Rizzo says Harper is definitely in our plans.  Now let’s see what happens.

“Of course he’s in our plans. He’s a guy we would love to have. He’s a part of our family. He’s a big part of this roster performance-wise,” Mike Rizzo said. “Like I’ve always said, with these type of deals, you’re not betting on the baseball player; you’re betting on the person. He’s a person we’d like to have with us.”