Bryce Harper 2018 and beyond

[DPMOmaha]

This offseason is gonna put Rizzo's creativity to the test. I expect it to be very busy with at least a couple twists we don't see coming.

[DCFan]

This is the kind of research that DCfan and I come to expect from the real brains on this board. Well done.

 

[mitlen]

Doesn't it make you nervous when folks wanna tie their reputation to you?     That's a lot of pressure brother.     

[DCFan]

Doesn't it make you nervous when folks wanna tie their reputation to you?     That's a lot of pressure brother.     

Nah I like BiL. Other than the fact he lives in the wrong side of the county.

[spidernat]

This is the kind of research that DCfan and I come to expect from the real brains on this board. Well done.

except Slateman pointed out how asinine it is to think Taylor is going to yield something of value

[DCFan]

except Slateman pointed out how asinine it is to think Taylor is going to yield something of value

Tell that to all the MAT fanboys on this board.

[mitlen]

Tell that to all the MAT fanboys on this board.

I wanna like Michael A. Taylor.

[aspenbubba]

BiL said Harp has driven in 94 runs when I stated he doesn't even make contact after last nites game . He has 154 K's while Trevor Story leads the NL with 165 and Harp is in fourth place. Below are some figures I RESEARCHED. BA and K's with runners in scoring position. Not sure if there is anything conclusive here other than he will set a personal record for K's with RISP.
                                 2018        2017       '16         '15           '14          '13
                                 .306        .349        .267       .301        .173         .230
                                   31           28           30         32            27          22

[imref]

except Slateman pointed out how asinine it is to think Taylor is going to yield something of value

I agree, but his value would come from saving $6 million.   At best we get a decent reliever.

[DCFan]

I wanna like Michael A. Taylor.

Woo doggie. Last year was what we’d all been waiting for. To see the dream center fielder fielding, hitting and base stealing. And then we get this year’s version which is just deja vu all over again. He’s certainly had his chances to run with it.

[Baseball is Life]

BiL said Harp has driven in 94 runs when I stated he doesn't even make contact after last nites game . He has 154 K's while Trevor Story leads the NL with 165 and Harp is in fourth place. Below are some figures I RESEARCHED. BA and K's with runners in scoring position. Not sure if there is anything conclusive here other than he will set a personal record for K's with RISP.
                                 2018        2017       '16         '15           '14          '13
                                 .306        .349        .267       .301        .173         .230
                                   31           28           30         32            27          22

Are these for Harper or the league? During a recent game, MASN flashed stats of how he rates when it comes to driving in runners from scoring position with two outs. He was up among the league leaders. Of course, I can't find those stats.

[spidernat]

Are these for Harper or the league? During a recent game, MASN flashed stats of how he rates when it comes to driving in runners from scoring position with two outs. He was up among the league leaders. Of course, I can't find those stats.

I remember that and was :shocked: The stat claimed that Harper's BA with bases loaded and 2 outs was .395 (also, it may have been a FOX or ESPN game)

[NJ Ave]

His OPS with RISP this year is over 1.000. I don't think Harper's problem is his overall production at all, and I certainly don't think he's not clutch. His problem is that he goes into the tank, almost every season, for a quarter of the season. Joe Morgan's use of "consistency" was one of the most widely mocked ideas by FJM and early stat guys. But with Bryce I actually kind of get it. You don't really want your best hitter to all of a sudden become your worst hitter for 40 games.

[aspenbubba]

Are these for Harper or the league? During a recent game, MASN flashed stats of how he rates when it comes to driving in runners from scoring position with two outs. He was up among the league leaders. Of course, I can't find those stats.

Harper

[Slateman]

Woo doggie. Last year was what we’d all been waiting for. To see the dream center fielder fielding, hitting and base stealing. And then we get this year’s version which is just deja vu all over again. He’s certainly had his chances to run with it.

No he didn't. Every time he got in a groove, he got benched for someone else to start.

[blue911]

His OPS with RISP this year is over 1.000. I don't think Harper's problem is his overall production at all, and I certainly don't think he's not clutch. His problem is that he goes into the tank, almost every season, for a quarter of the season. Joe Morgan's use of "consistency" was one of the most widely mocked ideas by FJM and early stat guys. But with Bryce I actually kind of get it. You don't really want your best hitter to all of a sudden become your worst hitter for 40 games.

His post MVP year OPS is .898. He may be the most obstinate hitter I've every seen. I think he needs to ditch the high leg kick.

[Baseball is Life]

His OPS with RISP this year is over 1.000. I don't think Harper's problem is his overall production at all, and I certainly don't think he's not clutch. His problem is that he goes into the tank, almost every season, for a quarter of the season. Joe Morgan's use of "consistency" was one of the most widely mocked ideas by FJM and early stat guys. But with Bryce I actually kind of get it. You don't really want your best hitter to all of a sudden become your worst hitter for 40 games.

He's like Zimmerman in he's super streaky. His swing like Zim's has a lot going on. Both have leg kicks. Maybe blue is right. If they can get him to cut down the leg kick...

[nfotiu]

This http://www.talknats.com/2017/12/30/the-washington-nationals-salary-projections-and-bryce-harper/ notes we had about $50 million in luxury tax cushion, that's before trading Kinzler ($5 million) and DFA'ng Enny Romero ($2 million).   So figure $57 million. Assume Solis gets released and now you are up to $59 million.  $27 to Harper, $20 to Corbin, and still some money to spare, especially if they back-load contracts.  Trading either Taylor ($6 million) or Eaton ($8 million) for a pre-arb eligible bullpen arm would help too.

One thing that can't be ignored is that Harper brings in revenue.    It's a tough guess, but I think he is responsible for somewhere around 5%-10% of ticket sales and 5%-10% of TV viewers.  Deserved or not, he is one of the top 3-5 stars of the game.   Are the Lerner's willing to bump up to the luxury tax threshold if they take a 20 million dollar hit in revenue by losing Harper?  At least half of Harper's contract pays for itself, I would guess.

[blue911]

One thing that can't be ignored is that Harper brings in revenue.    It's a tough guess, but I think he is responsible for somewhere around 5%-10% of ticket sales and 5%-10% of TV viewers.  Deserved or not, he is one of the top 3-5 stars of the game.   Are the Lerner's willing to bump up to the luxury tax threshold if they take a 20 million dollar hit in revenue by losing Harper?  At least half of Harper's contract pays for itself, I would guess.

Fans nag because Harper isn't Trout. Owners nag because Trout isn't Harper.

[UMDNats]

I'd target Sonny Gray this offseason. 100% chance the Yankees unload him. I wonder if they'd be interested in Michael Taylor if Gardner departs or retires.

[Natsinpwc]

One thing that can't be ignored is that Harper brings in revenue.    It's a tough guess, but I think he is responsible for somewhere around 5%-10% of ticket sales and 5%-10% of TV viewers.  Deserved or not, he is one of the top 3-5 stars of the game.   Are the Lerner's willing to bump up to the luxury tax threshold if they take a 20 million dollar hit in revenue by losing Harper?  At least half of Harper's contract pays for itself, I would guess.

That’s why they will sign Harper. And then go bargain basement again on the starting pitching and catcher.

[KnorrForYourMoney]

I'd target Sonny Gray this offseason. 100% chance the Yankees unload him. I wonder if they'd be interested in Michael Taylor if Gardner departs or retires.

Is that a joke?  Did Jim Bowden replace Cashman as their GM and I missed it?  What gives?

[Natsinpwc]

Is that a joke?  Did Jim Bowden replace Cashman as their GM and I missed it?  What gives?

It’s clear he doesn’t fit into their plans or want to pitch  there. So they are not going to get a big return.

[PowerBoater69]

Ditch Harper before he can have too much of an influence on Soto and Robles.

[Baseball is Life]

One thing that can't be ignored is that Harper brings in revenue.    It's a tough guess, but I think he is responsible for somewhere around 5%-10% of ticket sales and 5%-10% of TV viewers.  Deserved or not, he is one of the top 3-5 stars of the game.   Are the Lerner's willing to bump up to the luxury tax threshold if they take a 20 million dollar hit in revenue by losing Harper?  At least half of Harper's contract pays for itself, I would guess.

A thousand times yes. And all those damn Harper jersey sales!