What to trade?

[Dave301]

https://fancredsports.com/articles/jon-heyman-nationals-could-revisit-realmuto-incl

[Slateman]

https://fancredsports.com/articles/jon-heyman-nationals-could-revisit-realmuto-incl

No. The season is done. Save the prospects for the offseason. Start working on deals for Harper and Murphy

[bluestreak]

No. The season is done. Save the prospects for the offseason. Start working on deals for Harper and Murphy

So you’ll be betting with me?

[aspenbubba]

Because the the other NLE teams aren't coming back down to earth. At least not both of them. The fact is, the teams we feasted on the past 2 years don't suck anymore.

We didn't feast on the Braves last year (10-9)

[welch]

Realmuto might be good for the future, but, for this year, get a starting pitcher (or two) and then put Tanner and Gio on the DL.

[Smithian]

If the Nats make a move for Realmuto, which I still doubt, I hope they immediately move Reynolds if someone is offering a decent midlevel prospect in return. Realmuto will need some burn at first base to make the return worth it and right now first is pretty full even with Zimmerman on the shelf.

[Ray D]

Realmuto might be good for the future, but, for this year, get a starting pitcher (or two) and then put Tanner and Gio on the DL.

Problem is, there are no quality starters available, as evidenced by the interest in Eovaldi, from a number of clubs. He's a mediocre pitcher.  If he's the best available, I say just hope for the best from what we have.  Gio for example benefited from having Wieters back, last start.  Tanner, well he may be hopeless. But there's Scherzer, Strasburg, Hellicson, Gio, and Fedde.  That's not a bad rotation. I'd say look for an additional quality relief pitcher.   I'm not real enthused about the idea of trading for a catcher, until we see a bit more of Wieters. I suspect  he's been dealing with nagging pains for several years, and maybe he's finally back to full strength.

[Slateman]

There is literally no reason to give up anything. This team has quit. It's done. Rizzo needs to be lining up deals for Herrera, Murphy, and Harper.

[Greg_SRT]

I know that it's unpopular, but Gio is a very good #3 when compared to other teams #3's. And Tanner is good compared to compared to other teams #4 or #5.

You cut ties with either, they will be gotten quick.

The issue is offense. The issue is the rosters mostly set. We can get a catcher or pitcher, but the answer is guys already in the lineup need to play to expectations.

JT would be a great addition. IDK if the price is reasonable. But if it was lower, he'd already be on another team.

[UMDNats]

There is literally no reason to give up anything. This team has quit. It's done. Rizzo needs to be lining up deals for Herrera, Murphy, and Harper.

I agree the team looks cooked. I'm praying Gio has 2 good starts coming up and Wieters can look decent at the plate over the next 10 days.

Rental pieces we have:

Harper
Murphy
Herrera
Gio
Adams
Reynolds (doubt he gets...anything)
Madson
Kelley (I think?)
Wieters
Hellickson

There's enough crap in there to get a bunch of teams' #15-20 prospects, I think. That would go a long way to filling in some gaps in our system.

[Greg_SRT]

There is literally no reason to give up anything. This team has quit. It's done. Rizzo needs to be lining up deals for Herrera, Murphy, and Harper.

when the time comes, we will be there to help you on the hype train

[Slateman]

I know that it's unpopular, but Gio is a very good #3 when compared to other teams #3's. And Tanner is good compared to compared to other teams #4 or #5.

You cut ties with either, they will be gotten quick.

The issue is offense. The issue is the rosters mostly set. We can get a catcher or pitcher, but the answer is guys already in the lineup need to play to expectations.

JT would be a great addition. IDK if the price is reasonable. But if it was lower, he'd already be on another team.

It's unpopular because the rest of us know that Gio's stats don't show the whole history. He gets flustered and flounders. Tanner has been a disaster the last two months.

I agree the team looks cooked. I'm praying Gio has 2 good starts coming up and Wieters can look decent at the plate over the next 10 days.

Rental pieces we have:

Harper
Murphy
Herrera
Gio
Adams
Reynolds (doubt he gets...anything)
Madson
Kelley (I think?)
Wieters
Hellickson

There's enough crap in there to get a bunch of teams' #15-20 prospects, I think. That would go a long way to filling in some gaps in our system.

This. We've seen what Rizzo gets with the "fodder" he's had the last two years. Get him a lot more. Build them up so that when the deal comes, he's got bullets to shoot.

[RichMinSC]

Problem is, there are no quality starters available, as evidenced by the interest in Eovaldi, from a number of clubs. He's a mediocre pitcher.  If he's the best available, I say just hope for the best from what we have.  Gio for example benefited from having Wieters back, last start.  Tanner, well he may be hopeless. But there's Scherzer, Strasburg, Hellicson, Gio, and Fedde.  That's not a bad rotation. I'd say look for an additional quality relief pitcher.   I'm not real enthused about the idea of trading for a catcher, until we see a bit more of Wieters. I suspect  he's been dealing with nagging pains for several years, and maybe he's finally back to full strength.

are you still holding out hope that this team has a chance in 2018? they don'y have to go 40-27 to just get 87 wins

[RichMinSC]

I agree the team looks cooked. I'm praying Gio has 2 good starts coming up and Wieters can look decent at the plate over the next 10 days.

Rental pieces we have:

Harper
Murphy
Herrera
Gio
Adams
Reynolds (doubt he gets...anything)
Madson
Kelley (I think?)
Wieters
Hellickson

There's enough crap in there to get a bunch of teams' #15-20 prospects, I think. That would go a long way to filling in some gaps in our system.

Reymolds is a good RH power bat off the bench  aRH version of Adams and probably mid level in value of those 10 you listed

[tomterp]

With respect to our playoff chances, here's how BP has the top 3 in the division
                           Div %      WC %      Total %
Phillies - 88 - 73   58.4%   14.8%   73.1%
Braves - 86 - 76   29.2%   19.0%   48.2%
Nats      83 - 79    12.4%   11.3%   23.7%

[Ray D]

With respect to our playoff chances, here's how BP has the top 3 in the division
                           Div %      WC %      Total %
Phillies - 88 - 73   58.4%   14.8%   73.1%
Braves - 86 - 76   29.2%   19.0%   48.2%
Nats      83 - 79    12.4%   11.3%   23.7%

Fangraphs still has us  44.4% to win the division.  Phillies 31.8

[Natsinpwc]

With respect to our playoff chances, here's how BP has the top 3 in the division
                           Div %      WC %      Total %
Phillies - 88 - 73   58.4%   14.8%   73.1%
Braves - 86 - 76   29.2%   19.0%   48.2%
Nats      83 - 79    12.4%   11.3%   23.7%

This stuff is largely based on run differential this far. If you look at that the Nats should be near the Braves and the Phillies should be where the Nats are. The Phils have won many one run games and the Nats have lost them. Doesn't mean it will reverse itself the rest of the year. There are always some lucky teams and some unlucky ones. Of course any future trades are a wild card.

[welch]

Fangraphs still has us  44.4% to win the division.  Phillies 31.8

Maybe Fangraphs has not updated their guesses since Memorial Day?

Rent a mediocre starting pitcher plus Wilson, even though Ramos pulled a hamstring. That's it. Everything else has to be for the future.

[Ray D]

Maybe Fangraphs has not updated their guesses since Memorial Day?

I think Fanfraphs is notorious for sticking closely to their preseason predictions.

[welch]

I think Fanfraphs is notorious for sticking closely to their preseason predictions.

And if it's run-differential, then the Nats get a boost from those several games when they scored 15 runs, when FP assured us that "it it turned around", and those games when they trailed until failing by a run in the 9th.

[hotshot]

Problem is, there are no quality starters available, as evidenced by the interest in Eovaldi, from a number of clubs. He's a mediocre pitcher.  If he's the best available, I say just hope for the best from what we have.  Gio for example benefited from having Wieters back, last start.  Tanner, well he may be hopeless. But there's Scherzer, Strasburg, Hellicson, Gio, and Fedde.  That's not a bad rotation. I'd say look for an additional quality relief pitcher.   I'm not real enthused about the idea of trading for a catcher, until we see a bit more of Wieters. I suspect  he's been dealing with nagging pains for several years, and maybe he's finally back to full strength.

Lotta mediocre pitchers out there who look like aces when they face our weak lineup.

[aspenbubba]

Problem is, there are no quality starters available, as evidenced by the interest in Eovaldi, from a number of clubs. He's a mediocre pitcher.  If he's the best available, I say just hope for the best from what we have.  Gio for example benefited from having Wieters back, last start.  Tanner, well he may be hopeless. But there's Scherzer, Strasburg, Hellicson, Gio, and Fedde.  That's not a bad rotation. I'd say look for an additional quality relief pitcher.   I'm not real enthused about the idea of trading for a catcher, until we see a bit more of Wieters. I suspect  he's been dealing with nagging pains for several years, and maybe he's finally back to full strength.

I'm not sure I would want Fedde over Roark at this point. I might want to roll the dice on fat boy and hope we get a bounce.

[tomterp]

Fangraphs still has us  44.4% to win the division.  Phillies 31.8

I wish.  That's a dramatic difference.

[tomterp]

This stuff is largely based on run differential this far. If you look at that the Nats should be near the Braves and the Phillies should be where the Nats are. The Phils have won many one run games and the Nats have lost them. Doesn't mean it will reverse itself the rest of the year. There are always some lucky teams and some unlucky ones. Of course any future trades are a wild card.

I think you have the wrong guys.  BP's methodology is summarized as follows:

Playoff odds are based on three things:

1. Playing time estimates for each player for the rest of the season (as found in the Depth Charts).

2. PECOTA projections for each player for the rest of the season, with playing time taken from depth charts.

3. A simulation of a high number of seasons, where each matchup on the actual schedule is "played" (simulated).

After these seasons have been simulated, the playoff odds report simply tallies the number of times each outcome occurred, such as a team winning its division, winning a wild card spot, or winning the World Series.

They only say the season is simulated a "high number" of times but they used to run 1 million plays of the season nightly to try to make the model less variable.  Run differential doesn't factor in.

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/24332/feature-focus-feature-focus-playoff-odds/

[ToddGack]

are you still holding out hope that this team has a chance in 2018? they don'y have to go 40-27 to just get 87 wins

I don't know if they can overcome Martinez but the Nats still have by far the most talented team in the division and I don't expect Philadelphia or Atlanta to continue to play at a .558 pace.
Rizzo has been known to make panic moves in the past and I expect him to once again overpay and make a big move very soon. I wouldn't be surprised to see either Ramos or Realmuto and a decent pitcher or two added.
I don't think this team fears Martinez and the appearance of a team wide lack of effort and the constant mental errors shows that.