What to trade?

[Slateman]

To get a haul like the Yankees got for the Aroldis Chapman rental to the Cubs takes much luck and a desperate buyer.

It also takes a player like Chapman. Which we dont have.

[Slateman]

Article today speculating we might be sellers...thanks to not bringing back Dusty/cheap owner: we could probably get a nice haul for Harper and prob not miss him.

Yes. I'm sure that teams will line up to throw their top prospects for a .215 hitter

[bluestreak]

To get a haul like the Yankees got for the Aroldis Chapman rental to the Cubs takes much luck and a desperate buyer.

People really need to realize that that Chapman trade was an extreme outlier. It worked out for both teams, but it was a unique situation that’s a one off and won’t be repeated. It should not be used as a baseline for what to expect from any trade.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

You're just scared we will beat your Sawx in the Series.

They have a couple more weeks to turn it around.  But I think the Lerners will be stubborn and want to compete even if it's just for the wild card.  Would be nice if Murphy and Harper could pick up the hitting.  That's a win whether you want to trade or keep them.

I dropped the Garciaparra for Cabrera and Mientkeiwicz reference earlier in another post, but, if you want to talk about a guy with guts, then how about the moves Theo has done when he wants to "go for it."  This includes not just the Chapman and Garciaparra deals, but also moving Manny for Jayson Bay and a few others.  Even if we are contending, I would not be adverse to moving a Harper or a Murphy if what we get back helps the team (and if Robles and / or Kieboom is ready to backfill).

[Greg_SRT]

Other than pitching possibly or a catcher, the roster is set but underperforming.

It's time they step up.

[ChiliPalmer14]

Don't the Nats have to pretty much dump next year's UFA's now if they can?  They could gain some confidence in a series with Miami, but I fear it'd be false.  Harper, Murphy, Gio, Madsen, Weiters and even re-flipping Herrera.  Teams know they are rentals, but it seems there'd be some value there.  Even if the Nats intended to make a qualifying offer to any of them, my understanding is that the draft compensation is not as valuable due to the team's recent luxury tax status. 

With Scherzer, Strasburg, Doolittle, Rendon, Turner, Soto, Eaton and Robles and whomever they may acquire in FA in 2019, the "window" is necessarily slamming shut after this season.  It seems to me that even if the above list only netted the team one or two potentially valuable pieces and some filler, it'd be better than nothing.  Maybe they keep the valuable new prospects or maybe they're flipped at next year's deadline if the team is in it. 

[Slateman]

Don't the Nats have to pretty much dump next year's UFA's now if they can?  They could gain some confidence in a series with Miami, but I fear it'd be false.  Harper, Murphy, Gio, Madsen, Weiters and even re-flipping Herrera.  Teams know they are rentals, but it seems there'd be some value there.  Even if the Nats intended to make a qualifying offer to any of them, my understanding is that the draft compensation is not as valuable due to the team's recent luxury tax status. 

With Scherzer, Strasburg, Doolittle, Rendon, Turner, Soto, Eaton and Robles and whomever they may acquire in FA in 2019, the "window" is necessarily slamming shut after this season.  It seems to me that even if the above list only netted the team one or two potentially valuable pieces and some filler, it'd be better than nothing.  Maybe they keep the valuable new prospects or maybe they're flipped at next year's deadline if the team is in it. 

Why is it false? We know this team is capable. It's only five games back of the Wild Card, which is currently held by the Phillies, so getting into the wild card is certainly not insurmountable.

As to your list of players, the only reason we would trade them at the deadline is because they are performing as they are now. Who is going to give up anything for them? Teams at the deadline who add rentals are looking to improve their team. Other than Herrera, which of those guys would be an improvement over what a current playoff contender already has?

[Natitude2018]

Don't the Nats have to pretty much dump next year's UFA's now if they can?  They could gain some confidence in a series with Miami, but I fear it'd be false.  Harper, Murphy, Gio, Madsen, Weiters and even re-flipping Herrera.  Teams know they are rentals, but it seems there'd be some value there.  Even if the Nats intended to make a qualifying offer to any of them, my understanding is that the draft compensation is not as valuable due to the team's recent luxury tax status. 

With Scherzer, Strasburg, Doolittle, Rendon, Turner, Soto, Eaton and Robles and whomever they may acquire in FA in 2019, the "window" is necessarily slamming shut after this season.  It seems to me that even if the above list only netted the team one or two potentially valuable pieces and some filler, it'd be better than nothing.  Maybe they keep the valuable new prospects or maybe they're flipped at next year's deadline if the team is in it.

I think we have to look at trading these pieces, agree 110%. They are sticking with Martinez and most of us know, that is a recipe for disaster, or at the very least, won't get us ahead of both the Braves and Phillies. Plus, let's not kid ourselves, Manny is probably going to Philly. My source tells me there is a proposed deal going through the ranks of the crazy that is the Orioles Front Office. Regardless if they get Manny or not, they will both (Braves and Phillies) get good pieces.

It's frustrating because if they had just brought back Dusty or signed a Girardi type manager, this team would be in first or close IMO.

But we do have valuable pieces and despite batting .210, teams would line up to trade for Harper IMO. It could be a real nice return and setup for our future.

So sure, "the team is capable", but that doesn't translate into a high probability of winning the division or getting far in the playoffs if we squeak in.

[hotshot]

It also takes a player like Chapman. Which we dont have.

I know relievers are at a premium but ... I thought it was obvious I was thinking Harper who would, even as a rental, command some decent package, you might think!

And, Bluestreak, I get the outlier argument for what the NYY received but ... how do you know unless you try? Hopefully, Rizzo is doing just that behind the scenes.

[dcpatti]

But we do have valuable pieces and despite batting .210, teams would line up to trade for Harper IMO. It could be a real nice return and setup for our future.

 

Why would teams line up for Harper mid-season?  In free agency, sure, there's all the hype and star power which will command a premium over his baseball value, but nobody goes shopping for star power and hype in August. Anyone shopping is going to need to fill a very specific need, either elite offense or elite defense, and right now, Bryce is neither.  Even if he was, there's usually so many equally talented players on the block that the price remains low.

The DBacks pickup of JD Martinez might be the best yardstick. The Tigers got an infielder with a .211 average in 4 years in the minors, a 1B who finally is hitting at AA after  3 years in A, and a 19-year-old pitcher who may end up being the jewel of the trade, but could just as easily not.  And that return is *with* the DBacks picking up the remainder of JDM's salary (owed about $4.75m when the deal went through, as opposed to the $6.75m or so owed to Bryce) and JDM basically being a robot hit machine at this point in 2017.

Now, I'm usually a huge Harper fangirl and I still hold out hope that he's going to turn things around, but I think his trade value has never been lower.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

It's true his trade value has never been lower, but there's still contenders that would take a shot at him.  Many people thought the JD trade was a ridiculously low price for him (you don't know how much he was shopped), but I would think Harper would command at least that if he were in a trade.  I'd look at Seattle or possibly the NYY as potential buyers, especially if Harper could play 1st.  In Seattle, his competition would be Guillermo Heredia (Span can play center) and Dan Vogelbach / Ryon Healy.  Even as dicey as he's been playing, he's an upgrade on in the OF and (assuming he can play 1st defensively) at 1st, and a few wins are quite valuable to them.  As for the NYY, they have enough righty bats to make Harper's OBP and power especially valuable in either CF or 1B. He's be a big upgrade over Greg Bird at this point; Hicks isn't a problem but I think  They also have dead money in Ellsbury that the Nats could take back if they wanted better prospects.  I think he's quite movable.  he's also started to come around a bit offensively over the last 2 weeks (.278 / .481 / .639).

[Natsinpwc]

In the end Harper is just like anyone else you want to trade. If there is only one team interested you won't get much. If you get two or more suitors that drives up the return.

Don't forget that his salary for the rest of the year is not insignificant. If the Nats kick in soem of that they might get more in return.

I think all this talk is pointless. They will not trade him.

[Ray D]

All this trade talk is way premature.  You don't start selling until it has become clear that there is no chance of postseason.  We're nowhere near that point. 

[imref]

All this trade talk is way premature.  You don't start selling until it has become clear that there is no chance of postseason.  We're nowhere near that point. 

we come out of the ASB with 3 against Atlanta.  After then we should have a pretty clear idea if there's any reasonable chance left this season.  Ideally you'd like to see us at a minimum win the three series before the ASB. 

[Baseball is Life]

we come out of the ASB with 3 against Atlanta.  After then we should have a pretty clear idea if there's any reasonable chance left this season.  Ideally you'd like to see us at a minimum win the three series before the ASB. 

They are barely hanging on. They just need to win tonight and the Marlins series and we will see where they are at. Unfortunately, that's where we are at with this team. Can't look ahead.

[varoadking]

I think it's an exciting time for us. In years past, we've won the division by a lot of games and we're able to be behind right now. I'm excited to get out there and test it.

[Natsinpwc]

I think it's an exciting time for us. In years past, we've won the division by a lot of games and we're able to be behind right now. I'm excited to get out there and test it.

We're planning to trade you also. But not sure what we could get.

[ChiliPalmer14]

Why is it false? We know this team is capable. It's only five games back of the Wild Card, which is currently held by the Phillies, so getting into the wild card is certainly not insurmountable.

As to your list of players, the only reason we would trade them at the deadline is because they are performing as they are now. Who is going to give up anything for them? Teams at the deadline who add rentals are looking to improve their team. Other than Herrera, which of those guys would be an improvement over what a current playoff contender already has?

I said I fear it's false.  And I do.  I see your point, but I don't think losing 17 of 22 and being frequently shut-out and seeming to enjoy no benefit from playing at home is much of a fear repellent.  The team's fall has been astounding.  I think that a turn-around (meaning stopping the backslide AND overtaking those they trail) would take something equally astounding.  And I just don't see two "astoundings" happening.  Murphy has zero value as a potential DH for a playoff contender?  Harper?  Madson as a bullpen piece?  If they get a jar of peanut butter for the lot of 'em, it's more than they get if they all walk.

[aspenbubba]

I think it's an exciting time for us. In years past, we've won the division by a lot of games and we're able to be behind right now. I'm excited to get out there and test it.

You think that was the plan all along? Spot them a lead and see if we can catch them in the second half and roll into the play offs hungry? It worked for the Caps.

[Baseball is Life]

You think that was the plan all along? Spot them a lead and see if we can catch them in the second half and roll into the play offs hungry? It worked for the Caps.

The Nats have them exactly where they want them.

[varoadking]

You think that was the plan all along? Spot them a lead and see if we can catch them in the second half and roll into the play offs hungry? It worked for the Caps.

[Slateman]

I think we have to look at trading these pieces, agree 110%. They are sticking with Martinez and most of us know, that is a recipe for disaster, or at the very least, won't get us ahead of both the Braves and Phillies. Plus, let's not kid ourselves, Manny is probably going to Philly. My source tells me there is a proposed deal going through the ranks of the crazy that is the Orioles Front Office. Regardless if they get Manny or not, they will both (Braves and Phillies) get good pieces.

It's frustrating because if they had just brought back Dusty or signed a Girardi type manager, this team would be in first or close IMO.

But we do have valuable pieces and despite batting .210, teams would line up to trade for Harper IMO. It could be a real nice return and setup for our future.

So sure, "the team is capable", but that doesn't translate into a high probability of winning the division or getting far in the playoffs if we squeak in.

I know relievers are at a premium but ... I thought it was obvious I was thinking Harper who would, even as a rental, command some decent package, you might think!

It's true his trade value has never been lower, but there's still contenders that would take a shot at him.  Many people thought the JD trade was a ridiculously low price for him (you don't know how much he was shopped), but I would think Harper would command at least that if he were in a trade. 

Martinez went for very little. Harper hitting .215, even with power, isn't going to command anything. Legitimately, you might better off simply keeping him, giving him a QO, and taking the 4th round draft pick.

Only a desperate team would give up anything for Harper right now. Think about 2015 and how were desperate. And Papelbon was actually good that season. Harper is a freaking train wreck right now and it's pretty damn obvious it's in his head. So you'd have to really believe that a new place could turn him around.

Basically, you're looking at the same kind of trade the Reds made for Matt Harvey. The Mets got back a catcher who, basically is performing like Matt Wieters.

[imref]

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/oh-hello-j-t-realmuto/

seems getting Realmuto now would require parting with Juan Soto.

[dcpatti]

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/oh-hello-j-t-realmuto/

seems getting Realmuto now would require parting with Juan Soto.

That was always the asking price, him or Robles. Guess the fish like Soto better because he's not currently on the DL.

[Greg_SRT]

Besides the Nationals, what team in the playoff hunt is in need of an upgrade at catcher and want to make a trade? Plenty of teams would love him. But how many teams rather trade for him instead of pitching?