The Bryce Harper Compendium (2015)

[HalfSmokes]

And they all have very good GMs who make good moves at the deadline and are willing to trade away stars. Frankly, all Rizzo has done well here is draft well, and pull off the Fister trade. The Souza for Turner/Ross deal looks promising, but at the end of the day, his inability to fix the pen is looming large. Combine that with the monster deals for Werth, Max, and Zimmerman, and Rizzo is becoming more of a problem than a solution.

that's the problem. Rizzo can win trades all he wants, but if you can't assemble a winning roster out of those wins, it doesn't matter. I wouldn't even give him credit for drafting particularly well- most of his successes were drafting the guy that every draft commentator had as the best player available, and I can't think of any late round diamond in the ruffs doing anything for this team. His record outside of the first round is pretty much the same as any average GM

[varoadking]

Harper = 40 million
Zimmerman = 20 million
Max = 20 million

Max's deferred amount counts towards his AAV. So come 2019, he counts 42 million against the luxury tax.

This also doesn't account for Rendon, who will be getting expensive.

If you cap this team at 100 million, where does the rest of the team come from? Harper on that contract basically eliminates any chance of signing a quality free agent to help bolster the roster. You basically have to play money ball with everyone else on the team and continually look to make deals. You're basically the Royals with Bryce Harper. So yea, you will have a couple years of contention, and then another decade of struggle.

Took it to mean Werth, Scherzer and Zimmerman...

[Slateman]

Took it to mean Werth, Scherzer and Zimmerman...

Naw, Werth is gone in two years.

[BrandonK]

Max's deferred amount counts towards his AAV. So come 2019, he counts 42 million against the luxury tax.

I thought it was the opposite -- his deferred money is valued a ~$170M, and his yearly "cap" hit is based on that

[Slateman]

I thought it was the opposite -- his deferred money is valued a ~$170M, and his yearly "cap" hit is based on that

Nope. The opposite.

Because if you could defer like that, everyone would do it. You would simply defer everything for several more years to spread out the luxury tax.

[BrandonK]

A Harp signing doesn't mean anything this offseason; he's already on the team. Sure, it's great going forward, but it doesn't nothing for next season. That can't be the big move (and shouldn't be what Riz is focusing time on, right now...).

[BrandonK]

Nope. The opposite.

Because if you could defer like that, everyone would do it. You would simply defer everything for several more years to spread out the luxury tax.

Has anyone wrote up anything on this?

Ken Rosenthal ✔ @Ken_Rosenthal

For luxury-tax purposes, #Nationals will be charged present-day value of salaries in each of seven years on Scherzer’s deal, per rival exec.

Ken Rosenthal ✔ @Ken_Rosenthal

So, luxury-tax salaries for Scherzer likely will be in $26M-$27M range rather than $30M for each of his seven years in deal with #Nationals.

If the competitive financial package and long-term security is what a specific player seeks, this structure brings one additional benefit specific to luxury tax paying teams. While MLB doesn't discount for luxury tax purposes by the full 7% that might match the stock market, they do convert this $210 million to a standard seven-year deal between $182 and $189 million, per Rosenthal's numbers above. That means a reduction of between $21 and $28 million of the luxury tax overage, which we can certainly expect the Yankee front office to factor in for future deals. Not all contracts will come with dollar figures to match Scherzer's of course, but on any nine-figure deal structured this way there could be eight-figure savings just in luxury tax overages. Seeing as repeat offenders like the Yankees pay tax in the 50% bracket, these figures could easily tip the balance on a contract offer. Other tax paying teams may also look at the structure here with interest. Indeed Scott Boras and other agents may themselves propose this structure to other teams around the league.

http://www.pinstripealley.com/2015/1/20/7854105/max-scherzer-washington-nationals-contract-trendsetter-deferred-yankees-copy

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Werth's contract should not be an obstacle to extending either Harper or Strasburg.  He has 2 more $21MM hits, 2016 and 2017.  Harper's free agency would not start until 2 years after that (2019) so those 2 early years of arbitration being bought out should be relatively low.  There's freedom to structure the cash flow so it is low while we are still paying Werth.  Even for Strasburg, Werth's contract isn't a problem.  RZ's contract takes up space, so does Scherzer, but beyond that, they are not locked into big bucks for many others.

[BrandonK]

Werth's contract should not be an obstacle to extending either Harper or Strasburg.  He has 2 more $21MM hits, 2016 and 2017.  Harper's free agency would not start until 2 years after that (2019) so those 2 early years of arbitration being bought out should be relatively low.  There's freedom to structure the cash flow so it is low while we are still paying Werth.  Even for Strasburg, Werth's contract isn't a problem.  RZ's contract takes up space, so does Scherzer, but beyond that, they are not locked into big bucks for many others.

Sign Heyward.

[Slateman]

Has anyone wrote up anything on this?

Well this is news to me, so I'm in the wrong. If that's they way it is, why wouldn't you simply defer everything? I mean it would be absolutely perfect for guys who are not good with money, plus you can effectively lower your hit on the luxury tax

[PC]

Werth's contract should not be an obstacle to extending either Harper or Strasburg.  He has 2 more $21MM hits, 2016 and 2017.  Harper's free agency would not start until 2 years after that (2019) so those 2 early years of arbitration being bought out should be relatively low.  There's freedom to structure the cash flow so it is low while we are still paying Werth.  Even for Strasburg, Werth's contract isn't a problem.  RZ's contract takes up space, so does Scherzer, but beyond that, they are not locked into big bucks for many others.

Werth's contract shouldn't be an obstacle for anything!  The team should be planning ahead much more than two years.  At this point, Werth's contract should be an after thought and that should have been in the planning the day he was signed.

[BH34Natural]

Not really. Harper doesn't make this team a playoff team. And the amount of money he's going to command is going to make it impossible for the Nationals to field a playoff caliber team.

Like you know what makes the Nats a playoff team.

[Optics]

We will never get fair value for Harper in any trade so it isn't even worth discussing.

[Slateman]

We will never get fair value for Harper in any trade so it isn't even worth discussing.

Are you sure? I mean, in this day with the advanced metrics, I bet we could.

[WhiteWhale]

http://sportsworld.nbcsports.com/bryce-harper-500-million-man/

 

post edit

diff emoji
 
- nod to Houston

[houston-nat]

http://sportsworld.nbcsports.com/bryce-harper-500-million-man/

 

What's funny?

[houston-nat]

FWIW I think if Trout continues to Trout, he will sign for $500M as well.

[WhiteWhale]

I guess its just sticker shock.

if he goes just one tick above ZG for AAV and gets 35m, it would not be crazy to see him get 13 years at 26. That's 455 right there. I guess its not crazy. Just took me back at first

[Mr Clean]

FWIW I think if Trout continues to Trout, he will sign for $500M as well.

I think he is signed long term, no?

[Ray D]

I think he is signed long term, no?

6yr/$144M which I think began in 2014, so only 4 years remaining.

[Ray D]

6yr/$144M which I think began in 2014, so only 4 years remaining.

Correction: began in 2015 so 5 years left.

[PC]

What's funny?

...and the Lerners should feel fortunate to be the one writing the checks.  Wild horse won't be able to pull Kay Varner off of him.

[houston-nat]

...and the Lerners should feel fortunate to be the one writing the checks.  Wild horse won't be able to pull Kay Varner off of him.

You're saying she's a gold-digger? Do you have evidence or are you being sexist?

[houston-nat]

Correction: began in 2015 so 5 years left.

Yeah, Trout's contract is up after 2020, when he will be 29. Turns 30 in August of the following season. If he is still Trouting as usual at that point, and the inflation of player deals continues, there is actually a chance he cracks 600.

[PC]

You're saying she's a gold-digger? Do you have evidence or are you being sexist?

No.  I'm sure she love every inch of him.