2025 Off-season - general thread

[imref]

Fast track both and maybe one pans out sounds good to me.

bazell probably starts next year in A+ so we’re stuck with Ruiz for at least two more years unless Millas steps up.

[Slateman]

Fast track both and maybe one pans out sounds good to me.

Unless they are prodigies, catchers usually take a while to develop. No reason to rush. Ruiz is fine and they can always go get a good defensive catcher as a backup.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Can Henry Blanco still catch?

[welch]

Unless they are prodigies, catchers usually take a while to develop. No reason to rush. Ruiz is fine and they can always go get a good defensive catcher as a backup.

Yes. Ruiz is an OK catcher, although he rarely throws out a base-stealer at second. His hitting came back toward normal later in the season.

[Slateman]

Yes. Ruiz is an OK catcher, although he rarely throws out a base-stealer at second. His hitting came back toward normal later in the season.

It was a bad season. If he can regain his 2023 hitting approach, and retain his improved defense behind the plate, he's a 1.5-2 WAR player. Which seems fine enough for 7 million a year.

[IanRubbish]

It was a bad season. If he can regain his 2023 hitting approach, and retain his improved defense behind the plate, he's a 1.5-2 WAR player. Which seems fine enough for 7 million a year.

The issue is not what he's being paid, but the insistence on playing him because he has a long-term contract.  The "cost" is guaranteeing poor play at catcher, not the contract dollars.   

12% throw out rate with bottom 15th percentile hard hit rate and BB rate at the plate is not going to cut it.  The amateur hour coaches decided that rather than working on arm strength or pop time, they'd have him move up closer to the batter.  After 2-3 Spring Training interference calls that strategy faded quickly.

[Slateman]

Jack Flaherty - 5 Years, 100 million (20 mil AAC)

Joc Pederson - 2 years, 30 million (15 AAV), Mutual option 3rd year, with a 5 million buyout

AJ Minter - 1 year, 7 million; 2nd mutual option at 8 million woth a 3 million buyout

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Jack Flaherty - 5 Years, 100 million (20 mil AAC)

Joc Pederson - 2 years, 30 million (15 AAV), Mutual option 3rd year, with a 5 million buyout

AJ Minter - 1 year, 7 million; 2nd mutual option at 8 million woth a 3 million buyout

As for a top of the rotation pitcher, I saw an interesting idea about Bieber over on Nationals Baseball (http://natsbaseball.blogspot.com/2024/10/lucky-or-unlucky-2024.html) in one of the comments. Would a high initial value contract with a team option work? The suggestion was something like 2 years, $70 million guaranteed with a team option of 5 years, $100 million and a buyout of $15 million. Maybe that's really $55 million with $115 million option and a $15 million buyout (that's still $70 million guaranteed or $170 million over 7 years). Would Bieber walk away from that big of a guarantee? The $24.3 million AAV would be a bargain if Bieber is still Bieber. My sense is he'd gamble on himself and turn it down if he got something like 1 year, $35 million, with $15 million deferred. TJS recovery is still a good bet, and a healthy Bieber is a $35+ million AAV guy.  Maybe the numbers would work if it was $55 million for 2 years, and a 5 year, $145 million option with a $15 million buy out. That works out to $200 million for 7 years if the team exercises its option.

Basic point, I think I'd rather try to roll the dice on Bieber than sign Flaherty, Fried, or Snell.

[Slateman]

I would love Bieber. But he is missing half of next season, so he probably wants a 1 year deal with a player option the next.

24 million seems like a lot to pay for half a season coming off TJS. Qualifying offer is going to be like 21 million. I dont think he'll get it from Cleveland.

To me, the perfect scenario is we sign him to that 1+1, he performs well in 2025, we make the playoffs, he opts out after the season, and we get him on a long term deal. So if you wanna do like a match of the QO with a mutual option afterwards and a 5 million buyout, I'd down. I think the bigger question is, is he comfortable doing that here, or would he leave money on the table to stay in Cleveland and, essentially, finish out his rehab there?

So ~25 million for Bieber. I think that Rizzo punts on an expensive reliever (which I'm not overjoyed by, but also willing to do), and rolls the rest into offense.

Still want Joc Pederson. A Joc/Garrett platoon at DH would be a jaugernaught, defensively. That leaves Chapparo and Yepez competing for first base. It also means you have some money leftover for a trade. I wonder what it would take to get Brandon Lowe from the Rays? He has 136 innings at first base, 96 of which came last season. His contract is up, but he has a 10.5 million dollar club option for 2025, and a 11.5 million option for 2026. That would correspond nicely with our farm system. If you get significant improvements by  Morales, then you can decline one of the options. Also, if Tena (defensively), Wallace, or Lipscomb improve significantly, then you could just decline the option and slide House over to first.

I'm okay with putting off a bullpen piece until the deadline. I also think that next year, if you needed to, you could pull from your system. Cronin, Syroka, Susana, Rutledge and Cavalli all have promise in the pen and would slide in nicely.

I also wonder what it would take to get Ryan O'Hearn from the Orioles. He has a club option for 2025 at 8 million. We could easily pair him with Chapparo or Yepez and get good offense from first base. With Mountcastle probably costing around 6 million, Colby Mayo looking like a first baseman, and plenty of corner OF talent, I don't know that they want to keep O'Hearn. Would Robert Garcia and a Marquis Grissom or Andrew Pickney be enough?

[Slateman]

With Bieber settled, we have DH and 1B that need to produce some offense.

Hitting Out of the Designated Spot
Don't know if you all know this, but after Winker left, DH kinda sucked for us. Andres Chapparo and Harold Ramirez were basically sub .700 OPS for us. This team needs hitting and, especially, some power.

Trade for O'Hearn
Ryan O'Hearn, in two seasons at Baltimore, is hitting .305/.351/.516 against RHP away from Camden Yards. If you get him 500 plate appearances against RHP, that's 20+ home runs away from Baltimore. For 8 million. That's something worth trading for. Frankly, that is Joc Pederson levels of output. So let's take that and not sign Pederson (he signs with my beloved Tigers). And, better yet, he seems comfortable in the DH spot. As a DH, since going to Baltimore, he is hitting .288/.356/.505. And, in 116 plate appearances, as a DH, away from B-more, he's hitting .311/.371/.573 (small sample size, but I will take it). O'Hearn's statcast numbers are backing this up with a .280 xBA, .467 xSLG, and slightly above average swing speed.

We package Robert Garcia, Daylen Lile, and Andrew Pinckney (or another bottom ten prospect) for O'Hearn.

Bring Back Winker
Winker was resurgent last year, in DC. .793 OPS, and he hit .840 against RHP while in DC. He was traded to New York on August 28, where ... he struggled. .683 OPS (129 PAs), .678 OPS for New York against RHP (125 PAs). But .758 OPS away from New York, against RHP (64 plate appearances). Some small sample sizes, but maybe he just never got comfortable in New York until the postseason? Maybe we got lucky?

Also, I feel like we should maybe mention that his power is ... less than ideal. Even when playing for DC, he would have struggled to get 20 homers. And this team desperately needs power. However, he would be pretty cheap. I feel like 3 years, 15-20 million gets it done.

Joctober with the Pearl Necklace
Pederson is the quintessential DH at this point in his career. .949 OPS against RHP away from Arizona this year. Oh, it gets better. Last three years against RHP: .870 OPS. You want better numbers? Cool, two of those seasons were in San Fran. In 2022, Oracle Park was 28th in home run park factor. In 2023, they were last out of the 30 regular MLB ballparks. For reference, DC was middle of the pack those two seasons.

So, what did Joc do those seasons when not stuck in San Francisco? .880 OPS against RHP away from San Fran. Joc can rake. Combine him with Garrett or Chapparo and you have a monster bat.

The catch is that he will be 33 next year. Which means that decline is likely near.  I think he'd be at 3 years, 36 million.

First Base is an Issue
It is. Yepez can maybe be a good hitter. Chapparo struggled against RHP. Neither were anything special defensively.

The Christian Walker Question
Do we want Christian Walker? I have problems with Walker:

• He will turn 34 next season. 
• He wants a multi-year deal
• His offense has been somewhat Arizona-dependant

I know 34 isn't ancient, but its right about the time you start seeing some pretty significant drop off in production. For perspective, there were 39 position players with 100 plate appearances, aged 34 or older. Three of them had an OPS over .800. Eight of them were .750 or better. If you go to 35 or older, no one had an OPS over .760 (Solano was .760, Peralta was .750). Christian Walker could turn into a platoon bat/defensive replacement within a year.

He's also going to expect/demand a multi-year deal. Probably three years. fouryears takes him to his age 36 and 37 season. And if we go through numbers, it ain't promising. Out of 57 players aged 36 or older in the last three seasons, with at least 100 plate appearances, there are 57 players who played. Of those 57, eight have an OPS of .800 or better. 16 have an OPS of .749 or better. If you expand the number of plate appearances to 300, you have 33 players to choose from. Seven have an OPS over .800,  11 have an OPS over .749. Three of those guys are sure fire HoFers too. On the third and fourth year, we could see a pretty hefty drop off in production. Now, by then, we should know if Morales/Wallace/King can start, but still.

My third concern about Walker is that his offensive prowess seems heavily dependent on being in Arizona. The last three seasons, he has a .788 OPS against RHP, away from Arizona. Against LHP, away from the high desert, he's hitting .891. That's over a hundred points difference. Which wouldn't be bad, except we have that in Yepez and Chapparo. They crushed LHP in the minors and last year (albeit, small sample sizes).

At a contract of 3/4 years, 50-80 million, we get maybe two years of high .700s OPS against RHP and a good glove. Is that worth it?

Vote for Pedro
I'm still convinced that the Mets are going to sign Soto for like 650 million. If they do, they will let Alonso walk. Mark Vientos is a butcher at third, but his bat will play at first. The Mets could easily find a decent third base replacement. So I think they'd let him go if he didn't take a "team friendly" deal. I also think a 200 million dollar deal is nuts and, at best, he's getting 185. Which is still a lot, but he turns 30 this year and would expect to have a skill set that stays steady over the next 3-5 years.

Alonso has curious splits. Apparently, he doesn't give a freak about Citi Field (.833 OPS vs .820 OPS away). He's about the same against RHP home vs away (.813 vs .833). Against LHP, it gets interesting. .884 OPS against LHP at Citi Field the last three seasons (279 plate appearances). .779 OPS away from Citi Field against LHP (259 PAs). Is that subtantial? I dunno.  But he's asking a lot of money.

8 Years, 180 million. The price is stepp.

Is there no one else?
Honestly, not really

Paul Goldschmidt - Just turned 37, had the worst season of his career. Consecutive declining seasons. His statcast numbers were better than his performance (.258 xBA, .464 xSLG). Still, a sub .700 OPS against RHP (home or away) is not really helpful.  For what it's worth, he had a .733 OPS against RHP in the second half. The appeal here is that maybe you get Joc Pederson, sign Goldy to a 1 year, 11 million dollar prove it deal, and hope that a change of scenery brings him back to form? That would be really disheartening.

Rhys Hoskins - First season off ACL tear. Hit .214/.303/.419. Expected stats were even worse. Second half he hit .212/.295/.425. Probably takes his player option.

Justin Turner and JD Martinez - Honestly, too old. Both coming off career worsts.

Josh Bell - Is a curious one. He has hit .240/.321/.392 since leaving DC in August, 2022. Better against LHP, but not anything special. He's been a .690 OPS against RHP. Pretty awful. He seems to hit somewhat better when he's playing the field (.742 OPS), but nothing to write home about. He started 2023 in Cleveland, where he had a .706 OPS. They traded him to Miami, where he posted a .739 OPS. Again, better playing first (.775 OPS) than as a DH (.677). On August 2, 2024, he goes to Arizona ... where he posts a .796 OPS in 162 plate appearances, with an .828 OPS as a first baseman, and a .764 OPS away from Arizona. We can dive deeper into the numbers but the sample size gets smaller.  .880 OPS against RHP away from Arizona (62 plate appearances). And as  DH, he posts a .707 OPS (19 PAs). He clearly doesn't like to DH.

What I found interesting was this article: https://www.mlb.com/news/josh-bell-gets-help-from-father-over-all-star-break

Worked on his swing over the ASB. Came back mashing. Hit .320/.414/.720 in the 13 games back from the ASB before going to Arizona. Is this all a small sample size? Yes. Am I being hopeful? Yep. But it would be nice to grab him on a cheap, one year deal and have another great season from him. 2022 version of Josh Bell at first, combined with Jesse Winker at DH, would have given us enough offense to maybe push for

Yandy Diaz - Would assume the Rays are looking to offload a contract. Diaz is owed 10 million next year with a 12 million dollar club option in 2026. Just turned 33, posted a .755 OPS. There is a 200+ point disparity between RHP and LHP (.702 vs .924) this year.  Same as last year. Didn't really underperform his expected stats this year. The Rays would be selling low, but, you also might be buying a guy that is on the downside of his career.

Brandon Lowe - Another Rays trade candidate. Low has a 10.5 million dollar club option for the 2025 season, and 11.5 million for 2026. He turned 30 in July, and played 13 games at first base this year. He had a down year this year, hitting .244/.311/.473 (.259 xBA, .497 xSLG). He's also had health concerns. The thing is, the Rays have quite a few 2B and 1B options, and all of them are cheaper than Lowe. For his career, he's a .833 OPS against RHP. He posted a .772 OPS this season. And the last fully healthy season he had was 2021. Subsquently, that was the season he hit 39 home runs.

I might be reading too much into this year, but he got off to a bad start and went on the IL. Came back May 20, and hit .232/.333/   .463   his first month back (.762 vs RHP). From June 21 until the end of the season, he posts a .791 OPS against RHP. And I don't know that it matters, but he posted a .830 OPS against RHP away from Tampa Bay. Also, I'm kind of intruiged because he's from Newport News and kind of a local boy.

Eloy Jimenez - I really hope we're past this kind of signing.

Joey Gallo - Eww, no.

Carlos Santana - Not interested. Fairly confident that Juan Yepez could produce at the same level.

Masataka Yoshida - Still owed 55.8 million. Even if he performs at 2023 levels, I don't know that the money couldn't be better spent.

Brent Rooker - Would love to get him, but I don't think Oakland is selling. At least not in the offseason. Would also cost a fortune.

Nick Castellanos - I would dig the revenge aspect, but the Phillies would have to either send a lot of money, or send Justin Crawford in the deal. And even then, I think Yepez or Chapparo would be just as good a DH as him.

Jake Cronenworth - Is bad and owed a ton of money. No thanks.

Nathaniel Lowe - Was mentioned in trade rumors at the deadline. I think he needs his swing revamped, and that's not us. He did bounce back a bit in the second half of last year. Would trade if it was for a minor prospect (think Pinckney, De La Rosa, or Cox), but I think the Rangers will hold on to him and hope for a bounce back.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - I don't think he is available, and I think the price would be way higher than we want to pay if he was.



Conclusions

Joc Pederson seems like the only affordable "sure thing." And he is 33. Everyone else either comes with baggage or will cost a fortune. The defensive appeal of Walker is strong. At three years, I could stomach his bat, but a four, thats a ton of dead weight on a team that will be facing steep payroll climbs due to arbitration. Alonso seems overpriced.

The trades ... dunno how much they will cost. I think the Orioles hold on to O'Hearn until the deadline. I think you can get what you want from the Rays with non-40 man guys. I just don't know if they're enough.

So what's my pick? Trade for O'Hearn and sign Joc Pederson. It makes us lefty heavy, particularly if Tena is in the lineup. But we have good RHP options in Yepez, Garret, and Chapparo. We'll know a lot more about Morales, House, and Wallace by the deadline next year.  Save the Walker/Alsonso money and use it on a starting pitcher and a reliever.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Awesome last 2 posts. I have to concentrate to write a reply.

[aspenbubba]

Isn't Santander (O's) going into FA?

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Isn't Santander (O's) going into FA?

yes. He is an OF / DH, so wouldn't necessarily help at 1st and would lock down the DH role for years. That might not be a good thing if you prefer a rotation there

[imref]

i'm good with adding Flaherty.

Nice post Slate!

[Natsinpwc]

Won't they need a major overpay to get Flaherty?  and he will want a long term deal.
How about Nick Pivetta for 2-3 years?  Seems more up the Lerners alley.  Do we really think the Nats can outbid the Dodgers and Mets?

[nobleisthyname]

I'm out on Alonso but after reading Slate's post I'm more hesitant on Walker now too. Not sure O's will be willing to trade O'Hearn to the Nats though.

[Slateman]

Isn't Santander (O's) going into FA?

yes. He is an OF / DH, so wouldn't necessarily help at 1st and would lock down the DH role for years. That might not be a good thing if you prefer a rotation there

My problem with Santander is my problem with Teoscar Hernandez. They will command 9 figure deals that will push them into the outfield, rather than just a DH. So that means trading/benching Young, and you still have holes at DH and 1B.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Well, moving an OF not named Crews or Wood has to be a trade option.

[Slateman]

Well, moving an OF not named Crews or Wood has to be a trade option.

Benching/trading Young is more of a deadline move. Shouldnt be too hard to find a platoon bat. And lets not forget that Stone Garret was serviceable against RHP in 2023.

Nats need to solidfy production out of DH and 1B before creating holes by trading a 2.5 WAR CFer.

[Senatorswin]

I'm very satisfied with an outfield of Wood, Crews and Young next season. Not only for the hitting and speed on the bases but also the defense.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I would love Bieber. But he is missing half of next season, so he probably wants a 1 year deal with a player option the next.

24 million seems like a lot to pay for half a season coming off TJS. Qualifying offer is going to be like 21 million. I dont think he'll get it from Cleveland.

To me, the perfect scenario is we sign him to that 1+1, he performs well in 2025, we make the playoffs, he opts out after the season, and we get him on a long term deal. So if you wanna do like a match of the QO with a mutual option afterwards and a 5 million buyout, I'd down. I think the bigger question is, is he comfortable doing that here, or would he leave money on the table to stay in Cleveland and, essentially, finish out his rehab there?

So ~25 million for Bieber. I think that Rizzo punts on an expensive reliever (which I'm not overjoyed by, but also willing to do), and rolls the rest into offense.

I don't  think you get Bieber unless you are clearly willing to take on more risk (more upfront money) than other  teams. You do have to pay him to rehab and look at maybe a half season of him this year. Having a second year allows you perhaps to spread the money, and to have him around for the 2026 year, which should have an internal 3rd baseman for a full year.  To my thinking, 2025 should be the fringe contention year, while 2026 should be the legit contender year.

Ranking the pitchers, if Bieber is the target rather than Burnes, who will take a long contract and more money, then what's the back up plan? Flaherty may get overpaid. I might be inclined to go after an Eovaldi if I'm looking for a very short commitment. He pitched 170 innings for a good season. 2d half was a bit worse, mostly due to HRs. He'll be 35 next year, and should opt out of a $20 million 3rd year with Texas.

Nathan Eovaldi probably will decline his $20 million player option. He might not quite match that average annual value in free agency, but he’s entering his age-35 season and this could be his last chance to earn a multi-year deal. His Rangers contract was for two years and $34 million, and I’m expecting a similar one for him this time around, though it could be a little better because he won’t be tethered to a qualifying offer.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-of-the-order-previewing-the-option-decisions-for-al-teams-and-players/

I'm ok with high dollars to older starters if it means fewer years commitments. Even for younger guys, I'm leery of more than a 3-4 years commitment.

Snell is interesting and also should opt out, but he'll probably take more years than I'm comfortable with. Fried I expect to break down. Maybe that affects his final deal.

[Natsinpwc]

The Nats aren't getting any of the top end starters.  Most of the contenders have needs and teams like the Giants and Red Sox may also be willing to spend to compete.  Think lower end. 

[varoadking]

Jake is a GG finalist...

[Smithian]

I'm a lot more worried about 1B/DH and top of the rotation than I am replacing Jacob Young.

Nats aren't getting an 'ace' signing unless ownership wants their 2020's Werth signing. Hope it happens! Otherwise I think you see them bank on Gore improvement and trying to find a good mid-rotation starter you trust starting a playoff game between Gore and one of Parker/Irvin. Not saying that's right move, just what I expect.

I am glad for first time in a long time I am seeing hypothetical Nats trades where we can offer a couple decent prospects without it completely zeroing out the system at a position.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Jake is a GG finalist...

more than deserving. Should be the leader.