2024 MLB Trade Deadline

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

Crews and House are probably 650-700 OPS hitters next year optimistically.  Might be better in '26 but there's a burn in period like Wood has right now.

The other guys from this year's deadline might be journeymen fill ins at best.  There's really not many hitters to get excited about besides Crews and House in the system, which is part of the problem. 

In 2012, the team had six everyday batters with OPS's > .790, and that was with the pitcher still hitting.  Next year you have Wood, CJ, maybe Yepez. Not enough.   You also had the first full year of Davey Johnson in 2012 who was a big upgrade over Riggleman.  If you have Davey and Darnell still telling everyone to swing at everything next year that's a separate problem that still has to be fixed.

There are 20 hitters in all of the NL with an OPS over .790.

https://www.mlb.com/stats/national-league

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

I was posting in 2011, just not here, and we had the day of glory that year when Davey Johnson replaced the appalling Jim Riggleman.  But in addition to Harper in the minors, there was Michael Morse who was motivated beyond belief even though Riggleman would often bench him, not to mention Zimm, J-Zimm, Werth, and a hurt but had proven himself Stras.   

There were no salary deferrals then, no long-time manager or coaches with bad strategies that hadn't worked for years, and Rizzo was relatively new, and still had to prove himself.   While Mini Me shagging fly balls in the OF then was a good laugh, the 2011 team was much better and much more promising than this one.

Crews might be really good in a few years, but he won't be enough next year to put this team over the top.

You have no idea how much more the young guys progress or who is added this offseason.  You just choose to expect the worst. 

[IanRubbish]

There are 20 hitters in all of the NL with an OPS over .790.

https://www.mlb.com/stats/national-league

And none on this team, still haven't heard why we're magically going to make up the 30 points of OPS lost over the last year, or the near the bottom HR rate, BB rate, and OPS.   Not to mention having a catcher on a long term contract who can't hit or throw runners out.

[IanRubbish]

You have no idea how much more the young guys progress or who is added this offseason.  You just choose to expect the worst.

What young guys not named Crews or House are you seeing?  We're nowhere near where we were in 2011.  I'd have higher expectations if there were more hitters actually developing, and the abysmal hitting coach was gone. 

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

What young guys not named Crews or House are you seeing?  We're nowhere near where we were in 2011.  I'd have higher expectations if there were more hitters actually developing, and the abysmal hitting coach was gone.

Wood, the number one prospect in baseball?  CJ, a 23 year old All Star.  Multiple solid young pitchers. 

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

And none on this team, still haven't heard why we're magically going to make up the 30 points of OPS lost over the last year, or the near the bottom HR rate, BB rate, and OPS.   Not to mention having a catcher on a long term contract who can't hit or throw runners out.

You lamented we’d “only” have 3 next year most likely.  You clearly thought a .790 OPS was common, and you’re completely wrong.  You aren’t dealing in reality you just yell at the clouds.

[IanRubbish]

Wood, the number one prospect in baseball?  CJ, a 23 year old All Star.  Multiple solid young pitchers.

Carter Kieboom, Keibert, and Victor Robles were all top rated prospects.   I'm a big fan of St. James, but he's not enough.

Again, you're not addressing how we get from these miserable team offensive numbers to something even close to average, and neither is Rizzo.  He was on the Junkies today insulting everyone's intelligence about 8-9 year championship runs and saying nothing about all the tank seasons since 2006. 

[IanRubbish]

You lamented we’d “only” have 3 next year most likely.  You clearly thought a .790 OPS was common, and you’re completely wrong.  You aren’t dealing in reality you just yell at the clouds.

You're just being gullible, and buying into whatever garbage Rizzo says with your head in the clouds.  Most teams have a .790 OPS hitter, this one doesn't.  You refuse to address the question I keep asking about how we get from 30th in HR, 25th in OPS, and 28th in BB rate because you don't have an answer.   That's fine, just admit it rather than losing your cool with me and resorting to personal attacks.

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

Carter Kieboom, Keibert, and Victor Robles were all top rated prospects.   I'm a big fan of St. James, but he's not enough.

Again, you're not addressing how we get from these miserable team offensive numbers to something even close to average, and neither is Rizzo.  He was on the Junkies today insulting everyone's intelligence about 8-9 year championship runs and saying nothing about all the tank seasons since 2006.

If you’re of the belief that every top prospect turns into Kieboom and Robles the how do you ever expect a team wins?  Nothing is guaranteed, you position yourself as best as possible stacking as many projectable guys as possible, then supplement via free agency and trades.  We’ve been in the stacking phase the past few years and next year and beyond should graduate to supplementing.

You improve miserable offensive numbers with improved personnel.  Duh.  Do you not at all comprehend the personnel improvements are just now starting to arrive with more to come soon?  I’m not against Coles being replaced, but as I’ve said before, even a good hitting coach wasn’t going to accomplish a lot until the rebuild started to see the new guys come up.

I don’t listen to DC radio, but I really don’t expect Rizzo to say we’ve been tanking or throw anyone under the bus.  Smart people know what’s been going on.  You don’t spend big just to improve to mediocre.  It’s time to start spending this offseason.

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

You're just being gullible, and buying into whatever garbage Rizzo says with your head in the clouds.  Most teams have a .790 OPS hitter, this one doesn't.  You refuse to address the question I keep asking about how we get from 30th in HR, 25th in OPS, and 28th in BB rate because you don't have an answer.   That's fine, just admit it rather than losing your cool with me and resorting to personal attacks.

I haven’t heard or read a Rizzo interview.  I don’t live in the DC area or listen to or read their coverage.  I’ve addressed what you said many times.

[IanRubbish]

If you’re of the belief that every top prospect turns into Kieboom and Robles the how do you ever expect a team wins?  Nothing is guaranteed, you position yourself as best as possible stacking as many projectable guys as possible, then supplement via free agency and trades.  We’ve been in the stacking phase the past few years and next year and beyond should graduate to supplementing.

I believe you wait until they develop before you declare victory.  Wood was a 2nd rounder and had super impressive numbers at AAA, including a great BB/K at that level.  That was far more important than some arbitrary ranking.  Jake Irvin was on no one's prospect ranking list and has developed into a really strong starter, as has Mitchell Parker, and Brad Lord has put up consistently strong numbers from high A to AAA.   Meanwhile the prospect hype machine has been telling us to wait for Cade Cavalli and Cole Henry.  This is part of the problem, rankings, hype, and PR are misaligned with reality, so you don't count on something without strong evidence.

The other issue is to fix a busted strategy.  Darnell Coles is teaching these guys to hit like Keibert, swing early and often, which does cut down on K's, but also leads to few walks, low OBPs, and lots of soft contact.  His predecessor left because ownership didn't want to pay him, but this strategy is clearly not working.  That can't be fixed with a prospect some journalist ranks highly. 

[IanRubbish]

I haven’t heard or read a Rizzo interview.  I don’t live in the DC area or listen to or read their coverage.  I’ve addressed what you said many times.

I don't live in DC anymore, but there's coverage of his radio interviews.  He only speaks with the Junkies who are otherwise entertaining, but he likes them because they feed him soft and easy questions.   

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

I believe you wait until they develop before you declare victory.  Wood was a 2nd rounder and had super impressive numbers at AAA, including a great BB/K at that level.  That was far more important than some arbitrary ranking.  Jake Irvin was on no one's prospect ranking list and has developed into a really strong starter, as has Mitchell Parker, and Brad Lord has put up consistently strong numbers from high A to AAA.   Meanwhile the prospect hype machine has been telling us to wait for Cade Cavalli and Cole Henry.  This is part of the problem, rankings, hype, and PR are misaligned with reality, so you don't count on something without strong evidence.

The other issue is to fix a busted strategy.  Darnell Coles is teaching these guys to hit like Keibert, swing early and often, which does cut down on K's, but also leads to few walks, low OBPs, and lots of soft contact.  His predecessor left because ownership didn't want to pay him, but this strategy is clearly not working.  That can't be fixed with a prospect some journalist ranks highly.

Who has declared “victory?”  I’ve outlined where we were at the start of this with a depleted system and we couldn’t keep patching together the 2019 core, so they had to start over.  It’s been miserable, but they have acquired a lot of promising players.  Some we’ve seen already show a lot of promise at the MLB level like CJ, Gore, Irvin, and Parker.  Then you have guys like Crews, House, and an otherwise fairly deep system that undoubtedly will have some guys emerge.  That’s exciting to me.  The “books” are pretty clear to go out and spend on a few guys to fill in the gaps.  I expect to contend for a WC in 2025, then in 2026 this young core really starts to hit their stride, you’ve added some free agents, and you have enough in the system to trade for some other guys.  It may or may not all workout, that’s sports.

I want Coles replaced and the hitting approach revamped as well.  They overhauled pitching last offseason, and I think they will see the need to address hitting as well.

[blue911]

enough

[JCA-CrystalCity]

enough

makes you miss BiL vs Minty?

[nobleisthyname]

I believe you wait until they develop before you declare victory.

You seem to have already deemed it a failure though. Shouldn't it cut both ways? Acknowledging that we have a top-5 farm system (and all the implications that brings) isn't being gullible.

[IanRubbish]

You seem to have already deemed it a failure though. Shouldn't it cut both ways? Acknowledging that we have a top-5 farm system (and all the implications that brings) isn't being gullible.

We do not have a top 5 system.  What's being gullible is saying good things are on the way because of media or front office spin about certain players who have yet to deliver anything, especially when they've done nothing or underperformed in the high minors.  Getting excited about Jake Irvin or Mitchell Parker or even Brad Lord because of what they deliver at AAA or MLB makes plenty of sense.  Regurgitating Rizzo PR about people who he's traded for, drafted, or who make it to prospect lists before doing anything is very much being gullible, especially when Rizzo has been using PR nonsense to cover for ownership's unwilling to spend.  Reboots and rebuilds are just rephrasing "we're tanking so ownership doesn't have to spend for a few years...at least".  This would never work in any other decent sized market. 

There are two key things that have to happen.  The first is fixing the awful offensive strategy that is clearly a miss.  The second is a free agent bat or two, the farm is too light to get the offense back on track.

[varoadking]

There are two key things that have to happen.  The first is firing dave...into the sun fixing the awful offensive strategy that is clearly a miss.  The second is a free agent bat or two, the farm is too light to get the offense back on track.

FIFY

[nobleisthyname]

We do not have a top 5 system.

Fangraphs has them 5th:
https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/farm-system-rankings

But you're right others aren't as high as that. I remembered wrong.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Boz weighs in praising decision not to trade Finnegan:
This Nationals sell-off stopped at the perfect place
The trade the Nationals didn’t make, involving closer Kyle Finnegan, may have been their best call.

Of all the players the Nationals “should” have traded, given that indefinable commodity of “a good return,” Finnegan is the only one I hoped would stay. Why? On a team with five fairly promising starters in its rotation — Gore, Irvin, Parker, Herz and, pretty soon, Cade Cavalli — you absolutely need a solid closer; otherwise, panic will filter from the ninth into earlier innings and ruin the good work that your young arms have produced.

On the other hand, if you do have the ninth inning covered — not with an 89 percent success savior such as Mariano Rivera or a star such as Kenley Jansen but just a credible Finnegan — then you can, maybe, patch together late innings of winnable games with folks such as Derek Law (3.17 ERA), Jacob Barnes (3.98), Robert Garcia (4.23) and younger arms such as Jose A. Ferrer who need auditions.

Questions whether Finnegan should have been pitching the night before the trade deadline given how much he was overperforming his expected stats (threatening a reversion) and they were pursuing a trade.

Sometimes the best trade is the one you never make — or in the case of Finnegan, the potential trade that you happened to screw up. MLB front offices know Finnegan’s 3.52 ERA in 272 career games more accurately reflects what advanced metrics say about his true ability. This year, his stellar ERA was part illusion, owing to a .204 batting average on balls in play before Monday’s implosion. Reversion was due. But the Nats should have kept that illusion intact, hoping one team would want a 28-save all-star.

Nevertheless, he comes down on the side of keeping him.

There's also a discussion of the other moves the Nats made, generally approving of them. Says the Thomas move was appropriate given the emergence of Young along with Crews / Wood. Likens Young's defense to a Marvel Universe character (Spiderman? Wanda's brother perhaps?).

[Natsinpwc]

Boz is in the Lerners pocket.

[Count Walewski]

To me, Thomas and Finnegan are very similar situations. Both guys have a year of control left. Both guys have been playing above where their projections and talent have them, though Thomas for longer. While Thomas has obvious MiLB replacements in our system already, Finnegan does not, though the counter-argument to that is that closers are relatively cheap to get on the FA market compared to other positions.

Seems odd to me that Thomas was traded but not Finnegan. While there are many possible explanations - for example, nobody wanted Finnegan - this does raise the probability that the team is cheap and is prioritizing saving money over stockpiling talent. One of the main differences between Thomas and Finnegan is that Finnegan's hypothetical 2025 replacement would be more expensive.

[Slateman]

I think its pretty obvious there is large disparity between how Rizzo views Finnegan and how a lot of MLB does.

Rizzo views Finnegan as an all star closer with a mid-3s ERA, has a solid WHIP, and who consistently posts and pitches. The problem is that he views that as an excellent closerr/high leverage reliever. Borderline elite.

But Finnegan's metrics tell different performance expectations. He usually outperforms his FIP and xERA, but this season is the largest disparity of his career. His ERA is 3.48, but his FIP and xERA are over a run higher (4.75/4.78). That is the largest disparity of his career.

Deeper than that, while his WHIP is 1.09, this seems to be more indicative of luck. While hitters are hitting .206 off him, he has an xBA of .272. He is in the 25th percentile of barrel rate, first percentile of hard hit rate , and 2nd percentile in exit velo. In other words, when hitters hit the ball, they hit it.

Now, thats not exactly the worst thing. Lot of high leverage relievers throw hard and, as a result, give up a lot of hard contact. But they usually make up for it by striking guys out. But Finnegan is kind of well ... average. He has a 9 K/9. Thats fine, but its not elite high leverage fine. He is in the 41 st percentile in chase and 39th in whiff. While does sit in the 65th percentile in strikeouts, it seems to be the result of a lot of batters getting caught looking. While a strikeout is a strikeout, low chase and whiff numbers are usually indicative of a lesser quality of "stuff"

Truth is, if Derek Law had been the closer, he'd probably have better traditional stats than Finnegan.

Finnegan's meltdown probably just reinforced the mindset that, on a playoff caliber bullpen, Finnegan is just a decent middle relief option.

[Senatorswin]

I think with a closer the most important stat, maybe the only one that counts, is saves and blown saves. In Finnegan's case:

2021 - saves - 11 Blown - 4
2022 - saves - 11 Blown - 4
2023 - saves - 28 Blown - 8
2024 - saves - 28 Blown - 4

The Orioles used to have a closer named Don Stanhouse. Earl Weaver called him full pack. That was because when Stanhouse came in, he never got them 3 up 3 down. Always got in trouble but got out of it with the save. Weaver used to smoke in the dugout and joked he smoked a whole pack of cigarettes during the time Stanhouse came in and he got the save.

Finnegan has been having a good year but lately he seems to be just throwing his fastball down the middle of the plate too much.

[sixthree175]

I think with a closer the most important stat, maybe the only one that counts, is saves and blown saves. In Finnegan's case:

2021 - saves - 11 Blown - 4
2022 - saves - 11 Blown - 4
2023 - saves - 28 Blown - 8
2024 - saves - 28 Blown - 4

The Orioles used to have a closer named Don Stanhouse. Earl Weaver called him full pack. That was because when Stanhouse came in, he never got them 3 up 3 down. Always got in trouble but got out of it with the save. Weaver used to smoke in the dugout and joked he smoked a whole pack of cigarettes during the time Stanhouse came in and he got the save.

Finnegan has been having a good year but lately he seems to be just throwing his fastball down the middle of the plate too much.

Reducing a closer's value to saves and blown saves is simplistic.  A closer in today's game doesn't only pitch in save situations in the final inning.   
At the beginning of the year I said that Finnegan would be a set-up man at best on a good team.  That's my story and I'm sticking to it.